Category Archives: Severe Convective Storm

Fire, Homeowners Insurance, Lightning, Severe Convective Storm

Lightning Losses Highlight Rising Costs, Importance of Resilience

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Loretta Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

Lightning may last only a fraction of a second, but the damage it leaves behind can linger for months and cost thousands of dollars to repair.

U.S. insurers paid an estimated $1.65 billion in lightning-related homeowners insurance claims in 2025, a 59 percent increase from the $1.04 billion paid in 2024. The number of claims rose more modestly, up 11.6 percent to 61,986, but the average cost per claim jumped nearly 43 percent, reaching $26,616.

The findings, released during National Lightning Safety Awareness Week, highlight a growing challenge for homeowners. Lightning losses are becoming significantly more expensive, even when storms themselves are not necessarily becoming more frequent.

Several factors are contributing to rising claim costs. Inflation has increased the cost of labor, building materials and replacement parts, while reconstruction costs remain elevated across much of the country. At the same time, homeowners are insuring larger homes, more valuable personal property, and increasingly complex household systems, all of which can add to repair and replacement costs when lightning strikes.

Broader economic pressures, including rising reconstruction costs, inflation and legal system abuse, continue to drive up the cost of property losses across the country. These trends are making lightning-related claims more expensive and reinforcing the importance of preparedness and resilience.

The numbers illustrate the trend clearly. Since 2017, the average lightning claim has increased nearly 147 percent, rising from $10,781 to $26,616.

States Seeing Greatest Impact

Florida once again led the nation in lightning-related homeowners insurance claims, recording 5,167 claims in 2025. California and Texas also ranked among the highest number of claims.

Texas stood out for another reason. It generated the highest total insured losses, nearly $253 million, and the highest average claim severity among the leading states, with an average loss of $60,382 per claim.

More than half of all lightning-related homeowners claims originated from the nation’s top 10 states, underscoring how concentrated lightning risk remains in certain regions.

The increase in lightning-related losses is occurring against the backdrop of rising insured losses from severe convective storms (SCS), a category of weather events that includes thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes, straight-line winds and lightning.

While hurricanes often generate the largest individual catastrophes, severe convective storms occur far more frequently and affect communities across much of the country. In recent years, they have become one of the insurance industry’s most significant sources of property losses, causing billions of dollars in damage annually.

Lightning is one of the many ways severe thunderstorms can damage homes and businesses. A single storm can produce hail, damaging winds, flooding rainfall and lightning strikes, creating multiple pathways for property damage. As rebuilding and repair costs continue to rise, even relatively localized events can result in substantial insured losses.

The growing cost of lightning claims serves as another reminder that resilience and preparedness matter. Taking steps to strengthen homes, protect electrical systems, and reduce exposure to weather-related risks can help homeowners recover more quickly and may lessen the financial impact of future storms.

Lightning Damage Extends Beyond Direct Strikes

Many homeowners associate lightning damage with dramatic images of homes directly struck. In reality, some of the most common losses stem from secondary effects. Power surges created by nearby strikes can travel through electrical, cable and telephone lines, damaging expensive electronics, appliances, HVAC systems, and other household equipment. In some cases, the damage may not be immediately apparent.

Lightning damage, such as fire, is generally covered by standard homeowners, condo, renters, and business insurance policies. Some homeowners policies also provide coverage for power surges that result directly from a lightning strike.

The financial toll of lightning may be even greater than the claims data suggests. When lightning ignites a fire, the resulting insurance claim is often categorized as a fire loss – rather than a lightning loss – because most of the damage stems from the fire itself. As a result, some losses that originate with a lightning strike may not be reflected in lightning-specific claims statistics. In wildfire-prone regions, lightning can also serve as an ignition source for catastrophic fires, further expanding its economic impact.

California’s August 2020 lightning outbreak provides an important example of how lightning can contribute to losses that extend well beyond those captured in homeowners insurance claims. More than 12,000 lightning strikes over several days ignited hundreds of wildfires, many of which merged into large fire complexes. The fires burned millions of acres and destroyed thousands of structures, demonstrating how lightning-related events can generate impacts across entire regions.

The Lightning Protection Institute (LPI) notes that lightning strikes occur at an astonishing rate of approximately 100 times every second worldwide.

While most strikes never result in property damage, the frequency of lightning activity underscores the need for preparedness. Lightning can affect homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure, causing damage through direct strikes, fires and power surges.

The increase in lightning-related losses serves as a reminder that resilience investments made before a storm arrives can help reduce damage and speed recovery. Properly installed lightning protection and surge protection systems can significantly reduce risk and help protect people and property.

Lightning protection systems are designed to intercept a lightning strike and safely direct the electrical energy into the ground. A complete system typically includes air terminals (lightning rods), conductors, bonding components and grounding systems that work together to reduce the risk of fire, structural damage and electrical system failures. While no system can prevent lightning from occurring, properly designed and installed lightning protection systems can significantly reduce the potential for damage to homes, businesses and critical infrastructure.

Building Resilience Before the Next Storm

Lightning may be unavoidable, but many losses are preventable. Homeowners can reduce their exposure by:

  • Installing whole-home surge protection systems.
  • Using point-of-use surge protectors for sensitive electronics.
  • Having electrical systems inspected and maintained regularly.
  • Considering professionally installed lightning protection systems and whole-home surge protection in high-risk areas.
  • Creating home inventories to simplify insurance claims if damage occurs.
  • Reviewing insurance policies to understand coverage for lightning-related losses.

Resilience begins long before storm clouds appear. In addition to installing surge protection and maintaining electrical systems, homeowners can review their insurance coverage annually, document personal belongings through home inventories, trim trees and branches near structures, and develop family emergency plans.

These measures may not prevent lightning from striking, but they can reduce damage, speed recovery and help families return to normal more quickly after a loss. As weather-related risks continue to evolve, preparedness remains one of the most effective tools homeowners have to protect their property and financial security.

The latest lightning loss data shows that preparation is not just about safety. It is also about protecting families from potentially significant financial losses.

Learn More:

Commercial Lightning Losses: You Can’t Manage What You Don’t Measure

Triple-I Facts and Statistics: Lightning

Lightning Protection Institute: Homeowners: Make Sure Your Lightning Protection System is Properly Installed 

Additional Resources

Affordability, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment, Roof Condition, Severe Convective Storm

Storms, Inflation, Fraud Fuel Rising Homeowners Rates for Oklahomans

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By Jeff Dunsavage, Head of Research Publications and Insights, Triple-I

Oklahoma homeowners insurance premiums are escalating due to a range of factors. A new Triple-I Policy Brief discusses the drivers of this trend and cautions state legislators to make sure any attempts to contain these rising costs target its underlying causes.

“Because insurance is integral to the total cost of homeownership, lawmakers often find themselves under pressure from constituents to rein in premiums,” the brief says. “Unfortunately, their efforts often lead to policies that would hurt consumers, rather than help them. It is important for policymakers to understand the causes of premium increases and to let that understanding inform decision making.”

Oklahoma is among the least affordable states for home insurance coverage (ranked 48th, with 3.45% of household income spent), according to data from the Insurance Research Council (IRC). IRC, like Triple-I, is an affiliate of The Institutes.

Rising costs of materials and labor to repair and replace damaged or lost property have been major drivers of increasing premium rates. Legal system abuse and claims fraud also play a substantial role in rising rates nationally. Roof replacement fraud is a rapidly worsening problem nationally, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB), and the Oklahoma attorney general’s office has called roofing scams “the most common complaint submitted by consumers.”

Following particularly severe weather in April, the attorney general warned Oklahomans to be vigilant of contractor fraud.

“In the aftermath of severe weather, scammers often target vulnerable homeowners trying to recover and rebuild,” said Attorney General Gentner Drummond. “While it is natural to want to make repairs quickly, taking the time to choose a reputable contractor is critical to protecting your home and finances.”

While it may be politically tempting to address a state’s affordability issues by imposing more regulatory constraints on insurers Triple-I warns that states that have tried such approaches have shown they are neither effective nor sustainable.

For Oklahoma, addressing the severity of weather-related claims is key to moderating rate increases. Risk management programs like Strengthen Oklahoma Homes – which provides grants to Oklahoma residents for residential wind and hail mitigation on new and existing, owner-occupied, primary residence single-family homes – is a great start. Modeling the success of the Strengthen Alabama Homes initiative, funding for Oklahoma’s program comes from the insurance industry and is not funded by the state’s general budget.

“The property/casualty insurance industry is an essential partner in addressing states’ affordability crises,” the Triple-I brief says. “States that work with the industry can expect more effective, more sustainable results than those that only attack the symptoms instead of the underlying cost drivers.”

Learn More:

Contractor Fraud After Disaster: A Persistent Challenge in the Recovery Process

Convective Storm Losses: Historic 3-Year Streak

Legal System Abuse Awareness Campaign Spreads Across U.S.

Illinois Storms Highlight Severe Weather Losses

Mississippi Set to Launch Roof Grant Program

Storm-Resistant Roof Efforts Gain Ground

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Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane, Roof Condition, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wind

Mississippi Set to Launch Roof Grant Program

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Mississippi recently adopted a program that will offer homeowners grants of up to $10,000 for roofs built to the FORTIFIED™ standard, following in the footsteps of states across the country to mitigate the rising frequency and severity of extreme weather.

Developed by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the FORTIFIED™ standard can help reduce high wind and hail damage through construction methods like sealing roof decks and anchoring roofs to wall framing using stronger nails. While such standards remain voluntary, many insurers in Mississippi began providing premium discounts for homes that meet the designation, prompting state lawmakers to further incentivize their construction.

The Magnolia State is only the latest to follow Alabama’s lead, which largely pioneered these incentives through its own Strengthen Alabama Homes program, financed by the insurance industry with more than $86 million in grants since 2016. Designed to enhance community resiliency while also lowering insurance rates, completed retrofits earn residents premium discounts ranging from 25 to 55 percent.

Slated to begin accepting applications later this year, Strengthen Mississippi Homes authorizes the state’s insurance department to allocate $15 million a year towards grants and gives the department flexibility in determining grant eligibility as the program rolls out. More than one thousand homes are expected to qualify each year, including in inland areas and along the coast.

Notably, the new grant program builds on the state’s preexisting hurricane-specific mitigation initiative, in part reflecting growing nationwide vulnerability to other perils. While global insured losses fell below average in the first quarter of 2026, Gallagher Re analysis shows that U.S. convective storms were among the largest loss events, including a March tornado outbreak that killed multiple Mississippi residents and caused upwards of a billion dollars in insured damages throughout the Midwestern and Eastern U.S.

Mississippi ranked fourth in the nation for tornado frequency in 2025, at 111 tornadoes, according to data from the National Weather Service. Currently, it ranks second for such activity, at 48.

Modeling what works

Research from the Alabama Department of Insurance, in collaboration with the University of Alabama Center for Insurance Information and Research, has demonstrated the success of Strengthen Alabama Homes. The study found FORTIFIED homes suffered less property damage and fewer insurance claims than homes built using other construction methods when Hurricane Sally made landfall in the state.

Programs modeled on Alabama’s have sprouted throughout the United States, including in coastal Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Farther inland, Oklahoma just opened its program statewide after three pilot launches last year, and Kentucky unveiled its $5 million program for the first time last month. Similar efforts are underway in Minnesota after the state established a grant program in 2023, with full implementation expected during 2026. Arkansas’ program also remains under development.

Insurers have long called for boosting roof resilience within and beyond hurricane-prone regions. IBHS research estimates 70 to 90 percent of storm-related insurance claims involve roof damage, meaning roof upgrades can substantially minimize losses and improve market stability, keeping insurance affordable and available for more homeowners. In addition to making homes safer, the study revealed FORTIFIED™ homes sell for nearly 7 percent more than similar homes with non-FORTIFIED™ roofs.

Mounting demand suggests such improvements are gaining traction even beyond state grant programs. An unprecedented 20,000-plus designations were issued in 2025 alone, at a 20 percent increase over the prior year, keeping IBHS on track to reach a nationwide total of 120,000 by the end of 2026.

Learn More:

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Convective Storm Losses: Historic 3-Year Streak

Few, High-Powered Storms Defined 2025 Hurricane Season

Storm-Resistant Roof Efforts Gain Ground

Why Roof Resilience Matters More Than Ever

Catastrophes, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wind

Illinois Storms Highlight Severe Weather Losses

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Thunderstorms threatening tornadoes, large hail, and flooding in Illinois this week are just the latest in an outbreak of severe weather within the state this year. As of April 17, the National Weather Service (NWS) has logged more than 300 storm reports for the Prairie State, which currently ranks first for both tornadoes and hail nationwide.

Trailing just behind Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio for severe wind, Illinois leads in severe weather overall with 130 hail events and 61 tornadoes. For comparison, the 25-year average for tornadoes in the state during an entire year is 61 tornadoes, based on final NWS data from 2000 to 2024. An estimated 147 tornadoes impacted the state in 2025 alone, with Illinois ranked second for tornadic activity after Texas.

Much of the damage thus far this year occurred during a series of March outbreaks that tracked through the Midwest, each expected to generate $1 billion or more in insured losses, according to initial estimates from Gallagher Re.

Marked by violent tornadoes, massive hail, and strong straight-line winds, the March 10-12 and March 15-16 storms collectively claimed multiple lives and damaged hundreds of homes and buildings across Illinois and dozens of other states, including major metro areas like Chicago. As such, Gallagher Re projects the direct economic costs of both events will be roughly 25 percent higher than eventual insured losses.

Among the communities hit hardest by the March 10-12 storms was Kankakee County, a suburb about 50 miles south of Chicago. Beyond a powerful EF3 tornado, the area also reported a potentially record-breaking hailstone for the state, observed as larger than the size of a grapefruit.

Surges in convective storm activity during spring and into June are typical, with March historically leading the season every year. Research suggests the severity of these events may rise, however, as hailstorms producing large stones become more common and tornadoes increasingly concentrate in outbreaks of days with multiple twisters.

Climate patterns shifting tornadoes farther east may also be raising the frequency of the peril in states traditionally considered lower risk. Because the Midwestern and Southeastern U.S. are more densely populated than the Plains, the path of individual tornadoes is more likely to cross with urban areas, leaving more people vulnerable and adding to the overall toll of tornadic activity.

Nationally, the NWS has so far this year reported 365 tornadoes, which is approximately 28 above the 1991 to 2020 U.S. tornado average through the end of April. This number is expected to continue rising this month as more rounds of severe storms develop in Illinois and countrywide.

Learn More:

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Claims Leaders Take Charge on Climate-Resilient Rebuilding

Industry, Universities Team Up to Study Convective Storms

Facts + Statistics: Tornadoes and Thunderstorms

Facts + Statistics: Hail

Catastrophes, Disaster Resilience, Roof Condition, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wind

Convective Storm Losses: Historic 3-Year Streak

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Despite a relatively mild Atlantic hurricane season, the United States reported another costly year of natural catastrophe events in 2025, driven largely by the $51 billion in annual insured losses from severe convective storms, according to Gallagher Re estimates.

Trailing behind only 2023 and 2024 in such losses, the year ranks as the third costliest on record for the peril, producing more than $68 billion in total economic damages. A new Triple-I Issues Brief examines the demographic shifts and evolving weather and climate patterns behind the devastation, particularly as convective storm activity increasingly impacts dense urban areas.

Tornado activity surges

Preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates at least 1,559 tornadoes were reported in 2025, roughly 127 percent of the annual 1,225 historical average. Though advancements in doppler radar and other technologies have improved observations, some climate experts suggest activity has become increasingly concentrated in outbreaks of days with multiple tornadoes.

A record 300 twisters spawned in March alone, with more than 100 confirmed across 15 states during mid-month. Generating $8.4 billion in insured losses, the early season outbreak is the fourth costliest of its kind on record and led to two EF4 tornadoes in Arkansas, the first time in decades that such a convergence had been reported.

Hail takes center stage

Hail accounts for as much as 80 percent of severe convective storm claims in any given year, causing an estimated $10 billion in annual U.S. property damage for more than a decade. Roofs bear the brunt of this damage, facilitating an estimated 70 to 90 percent of total insured residential catastrophic losses.

To better understand hail formation and impact, Victor Gensini – Northern Illinois University meteorology professor and Triple-I non-resident scholar – recently co-led the largest hail study ever conducted, known as ICECHIP. Funded with an $11 million grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation, the field study sent more than 100 scientists across the Great Plains to analyze hailstorms during summer 2025. The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety also participated, as part of its ongoing efforts to develop severe weather-resilient construction standards.

Partners in resilience

Every $1 spent on hazard mitigation can save up to $33 in future disaster costs, according to a report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Allstate. Modern building codes are essential to achieving these outcomes, as is leveraging tools like aerial imagery and artificial intelligence to help predict and prevent losses before they occur.

Numerous private sector nonprofits have also stepped up to fill in research and mitigation gaps left by various federal funding and staffing cuts last year. Climate Central, for instance, has released its first billion-dollar weather and climate disaster report since assuming responsibility for that dataset last year from NOAA, reporting 21 such events from severe convective storms alone, more than any prior year on record.

Learn More:

Claims Leaders Take Charge on Climate-Resilient Rebuilding

Climate Nonprofits Take Responsibility for Terminated U.S. Databases

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Catastrophes, Corporate Social Responsibility, Disaster Resilience, ESG, Hurricane, Severe Convective Storm, Wildfire

Claims Leaders Take Charge on Climate-Resilient Rebuilding

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

As communities nationwide rebuild after last year’s 23 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, many must weigh the benefits of climate-resilient construction over the immediate financial burdens, logistical obstacles, and other constraints associated with recovery. Perceived cost of these building standards poses another challenge, underscoring a widespread awareness gap that impedes adoption.

A new report from Crawford & Company explores how facilitating resilient construction became a major focus among claims leaders across the globe, as part of a greater industry shift to center sustainability in claims decision-making. Based on interviews and survey responses from a cross-section of carrier and broker partner organizations, the report highlights the growing momentum to incentivize home upgrades due to their long-term cost savings, with such initiatives largely backed by insurers themselves.

“When we can collaborate at an industry level and converge on some best practices, we’re going to create a lot more benefit for the effort that we put in,” said Pat Van Bakel, the firm’s chief commercial and strategy officer, in a recent Executive Exchange with Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “My advice is to be practical: think about what we can do that is going to drive some impact and then build from there.”

Though differing economic, political, and legal pressures shape regional approaches to resilience, Van Bakel explained that “most organizations have referenced sustainability or resiliency in their corporate strategy,” with 70 percent of respondents identifying sustainability considerations as impactful in their adjudication and resolution process. Many mentioned integrating programs to make homes more resilient to severe weather, aligning with broader industry trends to prioritize sustainable restoration over replacement.

While house upgrades to voluntary FORTIFIED standards, for instance, remain relatively affordable, adoption skyrocketed under insurer-funded programs that offer homeowners grants to retrofit their roofs along such guidelines, with completed retrofits earning policyholders steep premium discounts. Developed by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the construction method has demonstrated success in reducing severe storm and hurricane damage, prompting a burgeoning number of state governments to help launch their own programs.

Beyond risk reduction, “what they’ve found in those areas is that the home values have started going up and the prices of insurance have started going down,” Kevelighan said, creating an “economic flywheel to incentivize people to take action.”

Similar efforts are underway in Dallas, Tex., Kevelighan added, as Triple-I works to establish “a property-based resiliency score” that homeowners can use to “tap into a revolving loan and grant fund that allows them to get the financial means” for needed home improvements.

Premium discounts are also attainable for California residents who meet specific standards for wildfire mitigation, many of whom are pursuing certification through the IBHS Wildfire Prepared Home program. Initiated by the state’s updated “Safer from Wildfires” regulations, the discounts offer some relief for the thousands of Los Angeles homes still awaiting reconstruction after last year’s devasting wildfires in the county.

Aerial images of disaster-struck areas “bring to life the value” of these initiatives, Van Bakel said, noting that “you can see the benefit of putting resiliency into the infrastructure when there’s no other way to explain how one structure can look relatively unscathed and one right next door to it is flattened or burned to the ground, depending on the peril.”

Crawford & Company’s report further emphasizes the claims industry’s role in helping “connect the dots” for policyholders on the resources available to them, including the accessibility of resilience funding and their code upgrade coverage. While 69 percent of respondents indicated sustainability is important to their customers, the demand for such measures has yet to fully translate to public education and coordinated industry support.

As insurers increasingly navigate these efforts, Van Bankel encourages the industry to “follow what I would describe as the demand pull, rather than trying to create demand, and I think we’ll be a lot more successful.”

Learn More:

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Climate Nonprofits Take Responsibility for Terminated U.S. Databases

Storm-Resistant Roof Efforts Gain Ground

Resilience Investment Payoffs Outpace Future Costs More Than 30 Times

Study Supports Defensible Space, Home Hardening as Wildfire Resilience ToolsStudy Touts Payoffs from Alabama Wind Resilience Program

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Floods, Severe Convective Storm, Technology, Tornado, Wildfire, Wind

Climate Nonprofits Take Responsibility for Terminated U.S. Databases

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I 

Amid federal funding and staffing cuts to major science agencies last year, various nonprofit organizations stepped up to maintain their essential climate and weather research. Such risks may become increasingly difficult to predict and prevent, however, as key agencies, such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), remain targets for disinvestment or termination.

Private sector takes charge

In the spring of 2025, the federal administration attempted to rescind tens of billions of dollars in research and hazard mitigation grants, leaving many programs – like FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program – in legal limbo as legislators continue to debate their futures. Alongside funding delays and cancellations, mass firings led to the shuttering of several climate and weather information resources – until private associations and researchers mobilized to revive them.

Former NOAA staffers, for instance, regrouped to rescue the organization’s climate.gov website, which attracted nearly one million visitors per month – including teachers, policymakers, and media outlets – before being dismantled last June. Under a new domain, the site will both restore deleted information and resume tracking and explaining the effects of climate risk to public audiences, relying exclusively on nonprofit funding, according to project director Rebecca Lindsey in an interview with NPR.

Similarly, nonprofit Climate Central recently released its first billion-dollar weather and climate disaster report since assuming responsibility for that dataset, which former NOAA climatologist Adam Smith continues to oversee. Beyond rebuilding NOAA’s database, the organization aims to expand upon it in the coming years to track smaller catastrophes, providing insurers and other stakeholders more reliable information to understand individual disasters.

An initiative spearheaded by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is now aiming to help fill research gaps left by the elimination of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), a series of congressionally mandated reports published since 2000 to inform climate risk mitigation strategies for municipalities and businesses. Though not intended to replace NCA, the new data collection “provides a critical pathway for a wide range of researchers to come together and provide the science needed” to “ensure our communities, our neighbors, our children are all protected and prepared,” said AGU president Brandon Jones.

Grassroots efforts to archive federal climate databases and tools before they disappear have also gained traction around the globe to ensure these resources remain publicly available. The nonprofit Open Environmental Data Project, for example, saved a now-deleted tool to identify communities disproportionately impacted by climate and weather risks through its Public Environmental Data Project.

Crucial agencies under scrutiny

While the latest government spending package has largely spared science funding from further reductions, the Trump administration had proposed cuts amounting to a 21 percent drop from fiscal 2025 levels. Other agencies face potential dissolution, particularly NCAR – widely considered the largest federal climate research program in the U.S.

Managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in collaboration with the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR houses advanced computing and modeling systems to support weather forecasts, mitigation planning, flood mapping, and other datasets needed across the transportation, engineering, utility, and risk and insurance industries.

Describing NCAR’s research as critical to “protecting lives and property, supporting the economy, and strengthening national security,” UCAR president Antonio Busalacchi said in a statement that “any plans to dismantle NSF NCAR would set back our nation’s ability to predict, prepare for, and respond to severe weather and other natural disasters.”

“NCAR datasets have been vital in improving our understanding of the atmosphere and ocean,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts and Triple-I Non-Resident Scholar. “These tools have been critical input to CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecasts for over 25 years.”

NCAR’s pending fate coincides with a recent study from the University of Florida that suggests the budget cuts in part reflect pervasive distrust in scientific institutions, necessitating stronger efforts to communicate the value of scientific work to the public. But as more independent groups take on the responsibilities once affiliated with federal organizations, building public relationships may prove even more challenging, posing uncertain implications for the future of climate and weather data as a whole.

Learn More:

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BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

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Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wind

Severe Winter Weather Ravages U.S. Communities

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Millions of Americans remain on alert for a severe weather outbreak across the country after devastating atmospheric rivers, tornadoes, and winter storms raged at the close of 2025, causing multiple deaths and significant property damage from coast to coast.

Southern California saw its wettest Christmas Eve and Day ever recorded, with more than 17 inches of rainfall in one area of Ventura County and 10 inches in parts of the San Gabriel Mountains in Los Angeles County. Downing trees and power lines, the heavy rains triggered flash flooding and mudflows that hit hundreds of homes, prompting road closures and power outages throughout the state.

Another unusual weather system spawned 13 tornadoes across the Great Lakes in late December, with six in Central Illinois alone, damaging numerous homes. Prior to last year, only five December tornadoes had been recorded in that forecast area, the last of which occurred in 2021. Frigid cold conditions followed the storm as a bomb cyclone – part of the same system that drenched California – swept from the Midwest to the East Coast.

Defined as a rapidly intensifying non-tropical storm in which pressure drops by at least 24 millibars over a 24-hour period, the bomb cyclone generated blizzard conditions resulting in power outages for more than 300,000 customers and a massive Interstate pile-up involving over 50 cars and multiple semi-trucks in Detroit, Mich. Several feet of snow buried Upstate New York, with the hardest-hit areas in the Lake Ontario snowbelt.

As conditions begin tapering off on the West Coast, the first cross-country storm of 2026 is expected to bring torrential rain and snow in the South and much of the Midwest later this week. Threats of flash flooding as well as hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds loom across both regions, with heavy rains possible in the Northeast.

As always, Triple-I urges residents to stay informed, be prepared, and follow the instructions of local authorities. Checking insurance coverage is critical to such preparation, especially as atmospheric rivers, severe convective storms, and inland flooding become increasingly common. Many noncoastal communities impacted by recent flood events lack sufficient flood protection, and Californians grappling with claims from the storms may also be unaware they need separate flood policies for flooding and mudflow.

Affordability, Homeowners Insurance, Industry Financials, Insurance Industry, Severe Convective Storm, Technology

Inflation, replacement costs, climate losses shape homeowners’ insurance options

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A person's hands are arched over a small model of a home that is placed on top of an insurance contract.

The homeowners insurance market is catching up to its cost drivers while still facing challenges to affordability and availability. Rates continue to climb as natural disasters intensify and replacement costs rise, but industry analysts expect meaningful improvement over the next two years. A new Triple-I Issues Brief provides a snapshot of the market’s performance and outlook, and discusses how some trends are shaping its future.

The latest results for the product line have helped narrow the anticipated 2025 gap between the performance of the personal and commercial lines. Despite a volatile start to 2025 driven largely by January’s destructive Los Angeles wildfires, homeowners insurance is still headed for double-digit net written premium growth this year.

With ​​nearly half of all homes in the United States at risk of “severe or extreme” damage from weather related events, climate risk looms large. In January 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released “Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018-2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors.“ a report based on the most comprehensive and granular snapshot of the homeowners insurance market to date. The agency found that climate risk is making it more costly for insurers to operate, as insurers’ costs in 2018-2022 were higher in areas with the highest expected losses from climate-related perils. The paid loss ratio, which reflects how much insurers paid for claims relative to the premiums they collected, was highest in the highest-risk ZIP Codes.

In 2025, the U.S. experienced its first hurricane season without a single landfall in a decade. However, the Triple-I issue brief explains, while 2025 economic losses from natural catastrophes are running below recent averages, other perils — such as severe convective storms, wildfires, and flash flooding — are becoming formidable sources of insurer loss. These increasingly frequent moderate disasters are challenging traditional catastrophe models built around infrequent peak perils, such as major hurricanes.

At the same time, soaring replacement costs have become the new normal for the homeowners market. Repair and rebuilding expenses have jumped nearly 30 percent over the past five years, fueled by inflation, supply-chain disruptions, rising construction material prices, labor shortages, and, more recently, new federal tariffs. Although the full impact of these tariffs has been milder than expected so far, the worst effects may simply be deferred until 2026 as inventories decline. Rising replacement costs translate directly into higher claim payouts, placing additional pressure on insurers and, ultimately, policyholders.

Beyond tariffs, other political and regulatory shifts are adding a new uncertainty as federal disinvestment in climate monitoring and mitigation may impede the insurance industry’s ability to accurately price risk, predict future losses, and, ultimately, provide affordable coverage. Meanwhile, several states grapple with balancing affordability with the stability and solvency of their insurance markets.

Insurance pricing must reflect these increased risks to maintain policyholder surplus, the funds regulators require insurers to keep on hand to pay claims. If premium rates fail to reflect increased costs, insurers may rapidly drain their policyholder surplus. This issue brief discusses how emerging technologies, such as advanced predictive analytics, aerial imagery, and smart-home sensors, could pave the way for more accurate pricing, faster claims processing, and improved risk prevention.

An Insurance Research Council (IRC) study indicates that homeowners familiar with some AI-driven insurance solutions view pricing using those technologies as fairer and express fewer concerns overall. These tools may play a critical role in bolstering affordability, rebuilding trust, and strengthening the resilience of the homeowners’ insurance sector amid escalating climate and economic pressures.

The issue brief’s list of factors and trends impacting the homeowners’ market isn’t intended to be exhaustive. Accordingly, future briefs on homeowners (or property lines in general) may highlight other pertinent topics, such as the link between insurance premiums and property prices. While home values in high-risk areas can often be diminished by rising premiums, higher home values can generally mean higher replacement costs, and consequently, lead to higher premiums. As of early 2025, home prices are up 60 percent nationwide since 2019 and still rising by 3.9 percent YoY, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The Harvard report cites Freddie Mac data indicating home insurance premiums jumped 57 percent from 2019 to 2024.

We invite you to read our take on the homeowners’ market and follow our blog to keep abreast of key issues impacting the industry.

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wind

Industry, Universities Team Up to Study Convective Storms

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

In a year marked by severe convective storm-induced damage across the United States, timely and accurate data is more essential than ever to understand, predict, and prevent these evolving weather perils. Though federal cuts to weather monitoring and modeling have raised concerns about the industry’s capacity for risk mitigation, a new research center backed by insurers and the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) aims to help bridge the gap.

Directed by Dr. Victor Gensini, a professor at Northern Illinois University and a Triple-I non-resident scholar, the Center for Interdisciplinary Research on Convective Storms (CIRCS) will leverage the expertise of nearly two dozen scientists to develop research focused on advancing resilience against severe convective storms, which range from thunderstorms with lightning to tornadoes, straight-line winds, and hail.

Northern Illinois University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison launched CIRCS with $1.5 million in funding from NSF, as part of a joint initiative with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to create an Industry-University Cooperative Research Center (IUCRC) that can support the insurance sector.

Beyond funds under the IUCRC model, CIRCS also receives “funding for research, students, and lab equipment” from private industry members, most of whom are “insurance and reinsurance companies interested in research on convective storms,” said Gensini, who teaches in NIU’s Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment. He added that CIRCS includes actuarial scientists within its panel of experts to “approach this specific peril from multiple directions.”

Rising in both frequency and severity, convective storms accounted for $42 billion in global insured losses during the first half of 2024 alone, driven by 12 U.S. storms with $1 billion or more in losses each, according to a Swiss Re report. Later Gallagher Re data supports the trend, with large U.S. thunderstorms contributing to $46 billion in insured losses through the third quarter of 2025, the fourth-costliest year on record.

Paradigm-setting research

In addition to the center’s launch, Gensini recently celebrated a major data haul gathered during the largest hail study ever conducted, known as ICECHIP – short for In-situ Collaborative Experiment for Collection of Hail in the Plains. Funded with an $11 million grant from NSF, the field study sent Gensini and more than 100 other scientists and students across the Great Plains to chase and analyze hailstorms, which facilitate as much as 80 percent of severe convective storm claims in any one year.

Collecting more than 10,000 stones for study, the researchers hope to reduce hail risk through improved forecasting, enabling residents to better protect themselves and their belongings before a hailstorm hits. As the first field campaign dedicated to studying hail since the 1970s, ICECHIP’s participants expect their data to inform research analysis for years to come, NIU reported.

“We recovered tennis-ball-sized hail or greater in about half of our instrument deployments,” Gensini said. “You hope and dream for these kinds of observations in order to push forward hail science.”

By partnering academia with industry and government agencies, CIRCS and ICECHIP showcase the kinds of collaborative, data-driven solutions needed to address climate risks in ways that respect the unique needs of all affected groups, fostering risk management strategies that can build resilience at a community level.

Learn More:

Storm-Resistant Roof Efforts Gain Ground

2025 Tornadoes Highlight Convective Storm Losses

Severe Convective Storm Risks Reshape U.S. Property Insurance Market

Hail: The “Death by 1,000 Paper Cuts” Peril

Triple-I/Milliman: Severe Convective Storms Restrain P&C Growth

2024’s Nat Cats: A Scholarly View