Personal Lines Underwriting Results Improve, Reducing Gap With Commercial Lines

The U.S. property and casualty insurance industry experienced better-than-expected economic and underwriting results in the first half of 2024, according to the latest forecasting report by Triple-I and Milliman.  The report was released during a members-only webinar on Oct. 10.

The industry’s estimated net combined ratio of 99.4 represented a 2.3-points year-over-year improvement, with commercial lines continuing to outperform personal lines. Combined ratio is a standard measure of underwriting profitability, in which a result below 100 represents a profit and one above 100 represents a loss. 

Much of the overall underwriting gain was due to growth in personal lines net premiums written. Commercial lines underwriting profitability remained mostly flat.

“The ongoing performance gap between personal and commercial lines remains, but that gap is closing,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio. “The significant rate increases necessary to offset inflationary pressures on losses are driving the improved results in personal auto and homeowners. With that said, the impact of natural catastrophes such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton threaten the improved homeowners results and are a significant source of uncertainty.”

During the webinar Q&A period, Porfilio provided insight on the potential impact of Hurricane Milton on the Triple-I 2024 net combined ratio forecast during the Q&A portion. One key figure regarding potential catastrophe losses is the impact on the 2024 net combined ratio forecast of adding one additional billion dollars of catastrophe losses. Each additional billion dollars of catastrophe losses is an impact of one tenth of a percent on the forecast.

Triple-I has loaded an estimate for catastrophe losses for the second half of 2024 based on historical experience, trends, economic projections, etc. prior to Milton, so there is no expectation of needing to add $30 billion to $40 billion – the recent estimate published by Gallagher Re.

If there was a need to add an additional $30 billion in catastrophe losses, that would be a +3.0-point impact on the forecast.

The net combined ratio for homeowners insurance of 104.9 was a six-point improvement over first-half 2023.  The line is expected to achieve underwriting profitability in 2026, with continued double-digit growth in net written premiums expected in 2025.   

Personal auto’s net combined ratio of 100 is 4.9 points better than 2023. The line’s 2024 net written premium growth rate of 14.5 percent is the highest in over 15 years. 

Jason B. Kurtz – a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman – elaborated on profitability concerns within commercial lines. Commercial lines 2024 net combined ratio remained relatively flat at 97.1 percent. Improvements in commercial property, commercial multi-peril, and workers compensation were offset by continued deterioration in commercial auto and general liability.

“Commercial auto expectations are worsening and continue to remain unprofitable through at least 2026,” he said. “General liability has worsened and is expected to be unprofitable through 2026.”

Michel Léonard, Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, said P&C replacement costs are expected to overtake overall inflation in 2025.

“P&C carriers benefited from a ‘grace period’ over a few quarters during which replacement costs were increasing at a slower pace than overall inflation,” Dr. Léonard said. “That won’t be the case in 2025.”  

It’s not too late to register for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum: Solutions for a New Age of Risk. Join us in Miami, Nov. 19 and 20.

Insurers Help Victims
of Domestic Abuse With Financial Resilience

By Loretta Worters, Vice President – Media Relations, Triple-I

When you think about domestic violence, insurance typically isn’t top of mind.  However, financial security and access to resources can make all the difference to victims when deciding to leave an abusive relationship. And insurance is an important component of financial planning that can help survivors move forward.

One frequently hidden form of abuse perpetrated within intimate partner relationships is economic or financial abuse, a common tactic abusers use to gain power and control. The forms of financial abuse may be subtle or explicit, but generally include tactics to conceal information, limit the victim’s access to assets, or reduce accessibility to the family finances. Financial abuse – along with digital, emotional, physical, and sexual abuse – includes behaviors to intentionally manipulate, intimidate, and threaten the victim to entrap that person. In some cases, financial abuse is present throughout the relationship; in others, financial exploitation becomes present when the survivor is attempting to leave or has left.

Research indicates that financial abuse occurs in 99 percent of domestic violence cases. Surveys of survivors reflect concerns over their ability to provide for themselves and their children – one of the top reasons for staying with or returning to an abusive partner. As with all forms of abuse, financial abuse occurs across all socio-economic, educational, and racial and ethnic groups.

Survivors struggling to get back on their feet may also be forced to return to their abuser.  That’s why it’s so important survivors understand how insurance works and what a critical role it can play in gaining financial freedom and economic self-sufficiency.

Since 2005, The Allstate Foundation has been committed to ending domestic violence through financial empowerment by helping to provide survivors with the education and resources needed to achieve their potential and equip young people with the information and confidence they need to help prevent unhealthy relationships before they start. 

The Allstate Foundation offers a Moving Ahead Curriculum, a five-module program that helps prepare survivors as they move from short-term safety to long-term security. Modules of the curriculum include: Understanding Financial Abuse; Learning Financial Fundamentals; Mastering Credit Basics; Building Financial Foundations and Long-Term Planning.

In support of Domestic Violence Awareness Month, Triple-I offers financial strategies to protect victims before and after leaving an abusive relationship. They include securing financial records, knowing where the victim stands financially, building a financial safety net, making necessary changes to their insurance policies, and maintaining good credit. 

The National Coalition Against Domestic Violence (NCADV) reports that 10 million people are physically abused by an intimate partner each year, and 20,000 calls are placed to domestic violence hotlines each day. In addition, 85 percent of women who leave an abusive relationship return because of their economic dependence on their abusers. Furthermore, the degree of women’s economic dependence on an abuser is associated with the severity of the abuse they suffer.

“Home is frequently a dangerous place for survivors of domestic violence, and remote work exacerbates the circumstances, due to the abusers’ ability to further control,” said Ruth Glenn, author, survivor, and leader in the movement to end domestic violence for over 30 years. “Tactics abusers use include ruining the victim’s credit, as well as financial abuse,” said Glenn, who is president of Survivor Justice Action (SJA) and the former CEO of the NCADV.

Digital abuse is another tactic used by abusers.  It can come in many forms, with partners reading emails, checking texts and locations of social media posts, controlling who you can connect and speak with on social media; and keeping constant tabs on you through social networks, spyware, or tools like location sharing; and stealing your passwords, which can also impact you financially.

“One of the most powerful methods of keeping a survivor trapped in an abusive relationship is not being able to support themselves financially,” Glenn explained. “That’s why insurance and financial education are crucial,” she said.  “Education can save a life.”

Multi-Family Affordable Housing Market Challenged by Surges in Insurance Premiums

urban apartment buildings

With ​​nearly half of all homes in the United States at risk of “severe or extreme” damage from events like flooding, high winds, and wildfire, the perfect storm of climate risk and legal system abuse creates obstacles for homeowners. It also threatens a more financially vulnerable segment of the housing market, as increased premiums and waning coverage for affordable housing providers can put millions of renters at risk of becoming rent-burdened (paying more than 30 percent of gross monthly income in gross monthly rent) or unhoused.

In June of this year, about two dozen real estate, housing, and nonprofit organizations — self-describing as a “broad coalition of housing providers and lenders” —  wrote a letter to Congress and the Biden administration urging them to address the issue of property insurance affordability. Although the coalition declared its intent to represent all stakeholders in the housing market, it called attention to special concerns of affordable housing providers and renters.

The letter referenced an October 2023 survey and report commissioned by the National Leased Housing Association (NLHA) and supported by other affordable housing organizations. The survey involved more than 400 housing providers that operate 2.7 million rental units — 1.7 million of which are federally subsidized. Findings mentioned in the letter and report about the affordable housing market include:

– Rate increases of 25 percent or more in the most recent renewal period for one in every three policies for affordable housing providers.

– Over 93 percent of housing providers said they plan to mitigate cost increases, with three most commonly cited tactics: increasing insurance deductibles (67 percent), decreasing operating expenses (64 percent), and increasing rent (58 percent).

– Respondents cited limited markets and capacity as the cause for most premium increases, followed by claims history/loss and renter population.

According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) guidelines, affordable housing is generally defined as housing for which the occupant is paying no more than 30 percent of gross income for housing costs. These units are often regulated under various regional and nationwide programs, which typically offer some form of government subsidy to the property owners – usually either through tax credits, government-backed financing, or direct payments. Rising insurance premiums for affordable housing properties have come at a particularly challenging time for both renters and affordable housing property owners, a large share of which are non-profit organizations.

Census Data indicates that in total renters comprise around 36 percent, or about 44.2 million of the 122.8 million Census captured households. The number of rent-burdened households nationwide has hit an all-time high. The latest rental housing market figures, taken from a report issued by the Joint Center For Housing Studies Of Harvard University, counts 22.4 million rent burdened households in this category, amplifying the dire need for more affordable units. That report also reveals the proportion of “cost-burdened renters rose to 50 percent, up 3.2 percentage points from 2019.” 

Additionally, homelessness increased 12 percent in 2023. More than 650,000 people were unhoused at some point last year — the highest number recorded since data collection began in 2007. A Wall Street Journal analysis reveals the most recent counts for 2024 are already up 10 percent, putting the total number of unhoused persons on track to exceed last year’s amount.

Meanwhile, the affordable housing stock is aging and the cost of debt to acquire or build multifamily properties has risen, too. As interest rates have been high in recent years, developers must offer investors greater returns than treasury notes. The problem is complex, but the outcomes can be brutally straightforward.

Higher insurance premiums on rented properties increase costs, which, in turn, get passed on to renters. Market-rate landlords can usually raise rents to cover the increasing costs of capital and insurance premiums. However, affordable housing providers are locked into rents set by the government. These amounts are tied to regional incomes, which can be depressed by wage stagnation. Thus, renters who rely on affordable housing can experience the impact of rising premiums in the form of decreased services and lapsed maintenance (as housing providers dip into other parts of the operating budget to make up the shortfall) or a decrease in the number of units on the market as housing providers extract units or leave the market.

In July of this year, HUD convened a meeting with various stakeholders to discuss policies and opportunities to address this and related challenges while managing potential risks to the long-term viability of affordable housing. HUD has modified its insurance requirements for apartment buildings with government-backed mortgages, now allowing owners to set their deductible for wind and storm events as high as $475,000, up from $250,000. This tactic may reduce premiums but can also raise out-of-pocket costs after a storm or severe climate event. Another approach in progress is the revision of HUD’s methodology for calculating the Operating Cost Adjustment Factors (OCAF), parameters for annual percentile increases in rent, for eligible multifamily properties to better account for increasing insurance costs.

Triple-I is committed to advancing conversations with business leaders, government regulators, and other stakeholders to attack the risk crisis and chart a path forward. To join the discussion, register for JIF 2024. Follow our blog to learn more about trends in insurance affordability and availability across the property and casualty market.

Predict & Prevent Podcast Honored By Inclusion Among ‘Insurance Luminaries’

The Institutes’ Predict & Prevent® podcast has been named to PropertyCasualty360’s Insurance Luminaries Class of 2024 in the category of Risk Management Innovation. This annual recognition celebrates people and initiatives driving meaningful progress within the insurance sector, highlighting key advancements and forward-thinking approaches.

The podcast explores new ways to respond to some of the biggest risk challenges facing society today by working to better predict and prevent losses before they occur. This proactive approach is crucial in a rapidly changing world in which traditional risk-management methods – which focus on risk financing and responding after a loss – are becoming less sufficient.

By exploring new technologies and resilience strategies, the podcast addresses the urgency of mitigating current risk landscapes and paves the way for future advancements in risk prevention.

The Institutes is a nonprofit organization made up of diverse affiliates – including Triple-I – that educate, elevate, and connect people in the essential disciplines of risk management and insurance.

As the podcast rounds out its second year, its focus remains to empower the risk-management and insurance community with actionable insights and forward-thinking strategies. Those interested in exploring innovative technology and resilience solutions can listen to podcast episodes, access articles, and subscribe to the Predict & Prevent newsletter here.

CSU: Post-Helene, 2 More “Above Normal” Weeks Of Storm Activity Expected

(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

As work continues to address the harm inflicted by Hurricane Helene, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) warn that the next two weeks “will be characterized by [tropical storm] activity at above normal levels.” 

The CSU researchers define “above normal” by accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of more than 10. This level of hurricane intensity has been reached in less than one-third of two-week periods in early October since records have been kept.

Hurricane Kirk, they wrote, is “extremely likely” to generate more than 10 ACE during its lifetime in the eastern/central Atlantic. Tropical Depression 13 has just formed and is likely to generate considerable ACE in its lifetime across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an additional area for formation in the Gulf of Mexico that should be monitored for potential U.S. impacts.

“Hurricane Kirk is forecast to track northwestward across the open Atlantic over the next few days, likely becoming a powerful major hurricane in the process,” said CSU research scientist and Triple-I Non-resident Scholar Phil Klotzbach. “The system looks to generate approximately an additional 20 ACE before dissipation, effectively guaranteeing the above-normal category for the two-week period.”

With more than 160 people confirmed dead in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee,  Helene is now the second-deadliest hurricane to strike the mainland United States in the past 55 years, topped only by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Reinsurance broker Gallagher Re predicts that private insurance market losses from Helene will rise to the mid-to-high single-digit billion dollar level, higher than its pre-landfall forecast of $3 billion to $6 billion, according to Chief Science Officer and Meteorologist Steve Bowen.

As always – and with particular urgency in the wake of Helene’s devastation – Triple-I urges everyone in hurricane-prone areas to stay informed, be prepared, and follow the instructions of local authorities. We also ask that people be mindful of the potential for flood danger far inland, as reflected in the experiences of many non-coastal communities during Hurricane Ida and Helene.

Learn More:

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Hurricanes

Hurricanes Don’t Just Affect Coasts; Experts Say: “Get Flood Insurance”

Strike’s Duration Will Determine Impact on P/C Insurance Industry

 

By Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, Chief Economist and Data Scientist, Triple-I 

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike on Tuesday, Oct 1. The strike is expected to affect more than 20 ports along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast, including the ports of New York and New Jersey, Baltimore and Houston.  

Focusing specifically on the strike’s impact on the property/casualty industry – and given the specific goods transiting through those ports – the impact will be most direct for homeowners, personal and commercial auto, and commercial property. More specifically, the strike may lead to increased replacement costs and delays in the supply and replacement of homeowners’ content, such as garments and furniture; of European-made vehicles and vehicle replacement parts; and of concrete, especially for commercial construction.  

However, the strike’s impact will be significantly mitigated by current inventories for each of the impacted insurable goods and the tightness of related just-in-time supply chains. At minimum, Triple-I estimates, the strike would have to last one to two weeks to trigger further sustained increases in P/C replacement costs or accelerate a current slowdown in P/C underlying growth.   

 Another way the insurance industry would be affected is from losses from coverage protecting against adverse business costs of events, such as strikes. These coverages include, but are not limited to, business interruption, political risk, credit, supply-chain insurance, and some marine and cargo. However, most such policies have waiting periods ranging from five to 10 days, and then deductibles, before payment is triggered. As a result, losses for those lines are likely to be limited if the strike lasts less than one to two weeks.  

 Using a one to two-week timeline is helpful: The last major longshoremen’s strike in the United States – at the port of Long Beach, Calif., in 2021 – lasted one week.   

Digital Payment Growth Faces Rising Cybersecurity Threats: Chubb

The global digital payments landscape, projected to hit $16.6 trillion by 2028, is grappling with a surge in security breaches and scams, with U.S. consumers reporting losses of $1.8 billion due to bank transfer and payment scams in 2023 alone, according to a new report from Chubb.

Despite widespread adoption, only one in three users fully trust digital payment technologies, underscoring the need for enhanced security measures and consumer education, the report found.

Concerns about security of digital payments creates an opportunity for insurers to provide personal cyber coverage that offers consumers greater peace of mind, the report noted.

“In this dynamic environment, insurance plays a pivotal role in fostering trust and enabling the continued growth of the digital payments ecosystem. By providing protection against financial losses resulting from cyber scams, technology malfunctions and data breaches, insurance empowers individuals and businesses to embrace digital payments with confidence,” said Sean Ringsted, chief digital business officer of Chubb.

The Growth and Risks of Digital Payments

The total transaction value of digital payments is projected to be $11.6 trillion in 2024, with continued growth expected at a 9.5% annual rate through 2028, according to Chubb. This underscores the magnitude of the shift toward digital payments globally.

In the U.S. alone, the number of noncash payments, excluding checks, has increased more than 500% between 2000 and 2021, according to the Federal Reserve System. Digital wallets are projected to account for more than $25 trillion in global transaction value, or 49% of all online and point-of-sale sales combined, by 2027.

As reliance on digital payment technologies grows, so does the prevalence of security breaches and scams, Chubb warned.

Data compromise incidents involving financial institutions increased by more than 330% from 2019 to 2023. In 2023, U.S. consumers reported losing $1.8 billion due to scams involving bank transfers and payments. The three largest banks that offer the Zelle payment network rejected scam disputes worth approximately $560 million from 2021 to 2023, according to a U.S. Senate Subcommittee analysis.

Businesses are also feeling the financial pain, with merchant losses due to online payment fraud predicted to surpass $362 billion globally between 2023 and 2028. Juniper Research anticipates $91 billion in losses in 2028 alone.

“From the U.S. perspective, the survey results suggest that some consumers have been lulled into a false sense of security around digital payments,” said Robert Poliseno, president of North America Digital Insurance at Chubb. “To protect all consumers, key ecosystem participants — including financial institutions, merchants and insurers — should educate users about potential risks, including the diverse range of cyber scams, and emphasize protective measures, such as adopting secure digital practices, raising awareness of common pitfalls and utilizing various forms of available risk transfer products-like insurance.”

The Trust Gap in Digital Payments

Despite widespread adoption, trust in digital payment technologies is relatively low, according to the survey. Nearly one-third of respondents globally lack confidence in digital payment providers’ security measures. Concerns about the adequacy of customer support (36%) and confidentiality (29%) are also among the main impediments to full trust, the survey found.

The possibility of being scammed is a leading barrier to fully trusting digital payments. Globally, 64% of respondents are very or quite concerned about cyber scams when using digital technology to transfer money, the survey found. In the U.S., 49% of respondents are very or quite concerned.

Most respondents concerned about cyber scams indicate that they have altered their behavior or reduced their usage of certain platforms: 61% globally, 60% in the U.S., 56% in Latin America and 65% in Asia.

The Role of Insurance in Promoting Trust and Adoption

A significant portion of digital payment users mistakenly believe they are protected against losses in various scenarios, such as technology malfunctions or data breaches. Younger respondents, frequent users, and those engaging in risky behaviors could be especially at risk of incorrectly assuming they have automatic protection.

However, the Chubb survey found that actual usage of insurance is relatively low — only 16% globally have personal cyber scam or fraud insurance, while 23% have payment protection insurance.

The presence of transaction insurance plays a critical role in increasing users’ trust in digital payment technologies, Chubb reported. Holding such insurance significantly boosts confidence for three-quarters of consumers.

Consumers are willing to pay for this peace of mind, Chubb found, with the highest proportion willing to spend 6% or more of the transaction amount on insurance.

View the full report here.