Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

JIF 2025: Federal Cuts Imperil Resilience Efforts

By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Recent efforts to curb federal spending – particularly massive proposed cuts to several major federal science agencies and numerous FEMA grant programs – drew concern from panelists at Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum in Chicago.

Slated to lose around half of their original budgets, organizations like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) provide insurers with much of the research data needed to model climate risks, at no cost to insurers nor the broader public. Abolishing this research, which also enables daily weather and natural disaster forecasting, will increase underwriting costs and those associated with various other industries, including transportation, agriculture, and energy.

“Federal science agencies probably facilitate more economic activity in the country than any other federal agency,” said Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America (RAA). “Fully funding and restaffing those agencies is pretty critical.”

A host of cancelled FEMA mitigation programs have left dozens of catastrophe-prone communities without aid – including projects that were approved before the cuts. Ending the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, for instance, rescinded approximately $882 million in climate resilience funding  —  “money  we could have spent on mitigation, so we don’t have to spend so much after a disaster,” said Neil Alldredge, president and CEO of the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies (NAMIC).

Nutter added that “weighing against safety, teacher salaries – all the kinds of things that communities grapple with,” most former grantees lack the resources for “risk reduction or municipal projects and infrastructure” without federal investment.

Population growth in high-risk areas exacerbates the issue, Alldredge said.

“If you look at a map of this country and the population changes from 1980 to today, we have moved the entire population to all the wrong places,” he explained. Building properties capable of withstanding these weather patterns – let alone insuring them – has launched the industry into “a new era of risk.”

While the panelists agreed that opportunities to improve FEMA operations exist, they questioned President Trump’s consideration to disband it entirely by shifting to a state-based relief system.

David Sampson, president and CEO of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA), noted that “the very nature of a natural disaster means that it overwhelms the local entity’s ability to respond,” rendering any state-based solution “unworkable.”

“I think we as an industry know where the low-hanging fruit for reforms are,” Sampson continued, because “we interact with FEMA on the ground after disasters.”

State-level legislative momentum

Though the Trump administration’s current plans do not bode well for the future of disaster resilience, insurers celebrated many state legislative wins this year regarding tort reform, notably in Georgia and Louisiana.

“Even at the federal level, there is a growing sense of awareness of the negative impact that an out-of-control tort system is taking on the economy and the American consumer,” Sampson said, highlighting a new bill that would impose taxes on third-party litigation funding.

Florida also successfully resisted challenges to its 2023 and 2024 reforms, which have already helped stabilize the state’s insurance rates and attracted new insurers after a multi-year exodus. Charles Symington, president and CEO of the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America, pointed out that industry advocacy is crucial to tort reform survival.

“Once you get these beneficial pieces of legislation passed,” he said, “we have to fight the fight in every legislative session.”

Symington then contrasted Florida’s recovering market with California’s enduringly hostile regulatory environment, propelled by the 1988 measure Proposition 103.

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has implemented a Sustainable Insurance Strategy to mitigate the effects of Prop 103 – such as by authorizing insurers to use catastrophe modeling if they agree to offer coverage in wildfire-prone areas – but the strategy has garnered criticism from legislators and consumer groups.

“California doesn’t have the assessment ability like Florida does,” agreed moderator Fred Karlinsky, shareholder and global chair of Greenberg Traurig, LLP. “California is three decades behind.”

As insurers adjust their risk appetite to reflect these constraints, more property owners have been pushed into California’s FAIR Plan – the state’s property insurer of last resort.

“Our members are having to cobble together coverage,” said Joel Wood, president and CEO of the Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB), who noted that the FAIR plan’s policyholder count has more than doubled since 2020.

Natural disasters like January’s devastating wildfires underscore California’s need for premium rates that adequately reflect the full impact of these risks, which is essential to the continued availability of private insurance in the state.

“When you have the right leadership in place – the governor, the state legislature – and you have the industry being effective in our advocacy, then we can improve these difficult marketplaces,” Symington concluded.

Learn More:

JIF 2025: U.S. Policy Changes and Uncertainty Imperil Insurance Affordability

JIF 2025: Litigation Trends, Artificial Intelligence Take Center Stage

Insurance Affordability, Availability Demand Collaboration, Innovation

Tariff Uncertainty May Strain Insurance Markets, Challenge Affordability

Reining in Third-Party Litigation Funding Gains Traction Nationwide

Lightning-Related Homeowners Claims
Fell 16.5% in 2024

By Loretta Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

Lightning-related homeowners’ insurance claims totaled $1.04 billion in 2024, a 16.5 percent decrease from 2023, according to new data from the Insurance Information Institute and State Farm, the largest writer of homeowners’ insurance in the United States. The number of lightning-caused claims also fell significantly, dropping 21.5 percent, to 55,537, the lowest level recorded since before 2017.

More than half of all claims came from the top 10 states, with Florida, Texas, and California leading the country in lightning-related property losses.

“Fewer claims and a decline in severity indicate increased awareness and improved mitigation,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I. “Nonetheless, lightning remains a significant threat to property and safety, particularly during storm season.”

Key lightning claim stats for 2024

  • Total number of claims: 55,537 (down from 70,787 in 2023)
  • Total claims value: $1.04 billion (down from $1.24 billion)
  • National average cost per claim: $18,641
  • Highest state average: $38,558 in Texas

Top three states by lightning losses

  • Florida – 4,780 claims, $113M in damages
  • Texas – 4,369 claims, $168M in damages
  • California – 4,005 claims, $75M in damages

“Lightning remains a costly and unpredictable threat, with ground surges causing nearly half of all claims,” said Michal Brower of State Farm. “These events can cause extensive damage to electrical systems, appliances, and even structural issues. The damage underscores the critical need for homeowners to be aware of the risks, invest in protective measures, and stay prepared, especially in high-risk regions where lightning strikes are most frequent and damaging.”

Lightning strikes can cause more than just a power outage. Common impacts include:

  • Fires in attics, roofs, or walls
  • Power surges that destroy electronics and appliances
  • Structural damage
  • Injury or even death

How to Stay Protected

Homeowners can protect their families and property by following a few guidelines:

  • Install whole-home surge protection and unplug devices during storms;
  • Consider a certified lightning protection system;
  • Check your homeowners’ insurance policy for lightning and surge-related coverage; and
  • Stay indoors and avoid wired devices during thunderstorms.

Damage caused by lightning, such as fire, is covered by standard homeowners’ insurance policies.  Some policies provide coverage for power surges that are the direct result of a lightning strike. 

The Lightning Protection Institute (LPI) notes that lightning strikes can occur at an astonishing rate of 100 times per second.

“Whether it’s a family home or a mission-critical facility, no property is immune to lightning,” said Tim Harger, Executive Director at LPI, whose organization provides resources for the design, installation, and inspection of lightning protection systems. “The most effective time to prevent lightning damage is before a storm. A lightning risk assessment paired with a professionally installed protection system can make all the difference in keeping people safe and operations uninterrupted.”

While lightning-related claims may be down, the risk is still very real, especially in high-strike areas like Florida, Texas, and California. Taking preventive steps now can reduce exposure to costly damage later.

Learn More:

Lightning Protection Institute

The Importance of Protecting Critical Facilities From Lightning Strikes

Lightning: Quantifying a Complex, Costly Peril to Support Resilience

Beyond Fire: Triple-I Interview Unravels Lightning-Risk Complexity

Insurance Affordability, Availability Demand Collaboration, Innovation

By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Insurance industry executives and thought leaders gathered yesterday for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum (JIF) in Chicago to discuss the trends, economics, geopolitics, and policy influencing the market today, as well as ways to navigate these complexities while focusing on making their products affordable and available for consumers.

Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan in his opening remarks, noted that effective risk management depends on collaboration across stakeholder groups, as interconnected perils “present a community problem, not just an industry problem.”

JIF keynote speaker Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple said facilitating community resilience planning is a top priority for the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). The NAIC’s 2025 initiative  – “Securing Tomorrow: Advancing State-Based Regulation” – aims to improve disaster mitigation and recovery by consolidating “the collective expertise of experienced state regulators from across the country, who can share real-time insights and proven strategies,” Temple said.

Among the initiative’s goals is aggregating more data from insurers to better understand challenges to affordability and availability on state levels, which the NAIC can then translate into actionable policy proposals. Such data calls, Temple said, help regulators, legislators, and policyholders focus on improving the cost drivers of insurance rates.

Louisiana has consistently been among the least affordable states for homeowners and auto insurance, according to the Insurance Research Council (IRC), in part because of its reputation for being plaintiff-friendly in civil litigation. Significant tort legislation has been approved in the state, but resistance to reform remains a challenge.

Getting to the roots of high premiums

 After a recent data call in his home state, Temple told the JIF audience, “For the first time in Louisiana, we’re not talking about only premiums. We’re talking about why premiums are where they are.”

A critical lack of transparency surrounding cost drivers persists, however. Temple criticized the National Flood Insurance Program’s Risk Rating 2.0 reforms for not publicly disclosing more information “for individuals and communities to identify and address factors driving up their premiums,” such as “whether increased rates take into account levee systems, pump stations, and other things designed to help mitigate against floods.”

Conversely, government programs like Strengthen Alabama Homes – and the numerous programs it inspired, including in Louisiana – have demonstrated success in communicating the benefits of resilience investments for consumers and policymakers.

“We’re seeing major positive results after just a few short years,” Temple said, noting that, since early 2024, over 5,000 homeowners not chosen for Louisiana’s grant program still decided to invest in the same hazard mitigation, as they may still qualify for the corresponding state-mandated insurance discounts.

“As natural disasters become more frequent and severe, state regulators will continue to drive forward common-sense policies that protect consumers and ensure that insurance remains available and reliable for at-risk communities,” Temple concluded. Developing the database required for such policies is a necessary first step.

Keep an eye on the Triple-I Blog for further JIF coverage.

Learn More

Significant Tort Reform Advances in Louisiana

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Louisiana Is Least Affordable State for Personal Auto Coverage Across the South and U.S.

Who’s Financing Legal System Abuse? Louisianans Need to Know

Study Touts Payoffs From Alabama Wind Resilience Program

Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

Disasters, Litigation Reshape Homeowners’ Insurance Affordability

Rising natural disaster costs, increased home repair expenses, and legal system challenges have made homeowners’ insurance significantly less affordable across the United States over the past two decades,  according to new research from the Insurance Research Council. The trend shows no signs of slowing.

The financial burden of protecting one’s home has grown substantially. With homeowners insurance expenditures growing much faster than incomes over the past two decades, American households now dedicate an increasing share of their income to insurance premiums.

 In 2001, homeowners typically spent about 1.19 percent of their household income on insurance coverage. This figure climbed to 2.09 percent – a 75 percent increase – by 2022, the most recent available year’s data.

Projections of average premiums from the Insurance Information Institute suggest the trend will continue escalating, with estimates indicating households could spend 2.4 percent of their income on homeowners’ insurance by 2024 – the highest level recorded in more than two decades.

Wide variation by state

Utah emerged as the most affordable state in 2022, where residents spent only 1.00 percent of their income on homeowners’ insurance. Other states offering relative affordability included Oregon (1.09 percent), Alaska (1.23 percent), and Maryland (1.27 percent).

Louisiana ranked as the least affordable, with households dedicating 4.22 percent of their income to homeowners’ insurance. Disaster-prone states dominated the least-affordable rankings, with Florida (3.99 percent), Mississippi (3.87 percent), and Oklahoma (3.45 percent), following the Pelican State.

Multiple Cost Pressures

The affordability crisis stems from interconnected factors that have intensified pressure on insurance markets, according to IRC. Increased natural catastrophe risk represents a primary driver, with weather-related events becoming more frequent and severe.

Rising home construction and repair costs have compounded the challenge. Supply-chain disruptions have inflated material prices and extended project timelines, directly impacting claim settlements. When homes require repairs or replacement, insurers face significantly higher costs than in previous years, necessitating premium adjustments to maintain financial stability.

Population migration patterns have exacerbated risk concentrations, with more Americans moving to areas susceptible to natural disasters, the report noted. Coastal regions prone to hurricanes, wildfire-vulnerable areas, and tornado-prone territories have seen increased development, creating larger pools of exposed properties that insurers must protect.

Litigation has added another layer of complexity. Insurance companies report challenges with fraud, excessive claims, and legal system abuse following catastrophic events. The expense index – measuring what insurers spend to process, investigate, and litigate claims as a percentage of incurred losses – varies significantly across states, with litigation rates affecting overall costs.

Why Roof Resilience Matters More Than Ever

By Loretta L. Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

Your roof is more than just a covering over your head. It’s the first line of defense against nature’s most powerful forces.

During National Roof Awareness Week (June 1-7), we spotlight the critical role roofs play in protecting homes, businesses, and communities from severe weather (see infographic) and why building stronger, smarter roofs today is essential for reducing damage and insurance claims tomorrow.

Why roof awareness matters

The roof bears the brunt of wind, rain, hail, fire, and flying debris. Yet, many home and business owners overlook its condition until it’s too late. According to the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), a staggering 70 to 90 percent of storm-related insurance claims involve roof damage. Whether it’s shingle loss from 60 mph winds or water intrusion through exposed decking, roof failures can turn a storm into a financial disaster.

FORTIFIED: A better way to build and rebuild

Developed by IBHS after decades of research, the FORTIFIED standard is a voluntary construction and re-roofing method that dramatically improves a building’s ability to withstand severe weather. FORTIFIED Roof™ strengthens the most vulnerable parts of a roof, such as edges, decking, and fastening systems, through methods like:

  • Using sealed roof decks to prevent water intrusion (can reduce damage by up to 95 percent);
  • Requiring ring-shank nails to secure roof decking more effectively; and
  • Reinforcing edges with fully adhered starter strips and a wider drip edge.

Many upgrades are affordable.  A sealed roof deck can cost as little as $600, and switching to stronger nails might cost under $100 for a typical 2,000-square-foot home. Roofs built to the FORTIFIED standard not only protect what matters most; it can also lead to significant insurance discounts in states like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. These programs are making roof resilience accessible and cost-effective for homeowners and businesses alike.

“It only takes one storm to turn a minor vulnerability into major destruction,” said Roy Wright, IBHS president and CEO. “At IBHS, we’ve spent decades studying how buildings fail—and how they survive. That research led to the FORTIFIED Roof standard, a proven way to reduce storm damage. It’s affordable, accessible, and one of the smartest investments a homeowner can make for peace of mind and protection.” 

Why It Matters to Insurers

Insurers are increasingly focused on roof resilience because it reduces the number and severity of claims. The FORTIFIED Roof standard is part of a broader industry shift from detect and repair” to “predict and prevent.”

Poorly maintained or outdated roofs can result in denied claims, higher premiums, or non-renewal of policies. Conversely, resilient roofs may qualify for preferred coverage, lower deductibles, and better insurance options.

“A resilient roof isn’t just a safeguard for a single structure,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “It’s a smart strategy for reducing risk across entire communities. As frequency and severity of natural disasters rise, insurers are increasingly focused on proactive solutions like the FORTIFIED standard. These improvements help protect property, minimize costly disruptions, and ensure insurance remains available and affordable for more Americans.”

Roofing in wildfire and hurricane zones

Roofs are also vulnerable to wildfire embers, especially in areas where debris can ignite on the roof surface. For wildfire-prone regions, following IBHS’s Wildfire Prepared Home standard and local fire-safe roofing recommendations is critical. Likewise, in hurricane zones, strong connections between roof components can prevent catastrophic failures when wind forces attempt to peel roof decks away.

Replacing or upgrading a roof is one of the most important investments you can make to your property. And thanks to resources like the Roofing Roadmaps from IBHS, homeowners and business owners can make informed decisions about materials, maintenance, and upgrades that will pay off in both resilience and reduced risk.

Learn More:

Study Touts Payoffs From Alabama Wind Resilience Program

FEMA Highlights Role of Modern Roofs in Preventing Hurricane Damage

2025 Tornadoes Highlight Convective Storm Losses

Severe Convective Storm Risks Reshape U.S. Property Insurance Market

Hail: The “Death by 1,000 Paper Cuts” Peril

Study Touts Payoffs
From Alabama Wind Resilience Program

A study by the Alabama Department of Insurance, in collaboration with the University of Alabama Center for Insurance Information and Research, shows that widespread adoption of IBHS FORTIFIED construction standards could dramatically reduce insurance claims from hurricanes, while also encouraging property/casualty insurers to maintain coverage in high-risk areas.

Homes built or retrofitted to FORTIFIED standards from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety were found to have suffered far less property damage and a lower volume of insurance claims from Hurricane Sally — which made landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2 storm in September 2020 — than non-FORTIFIED properties.

“The results show mitigation works and that we can build things that are resilient to climate change,” said the author of the study, Triple-I non-resident scholar Lars Powell.

A collective effort

Alabama’s proactive approach – which includes mandatory insurance discounts and a state-backed grant program for resilient construction – offers a model for risk mitigation and protecting homeowners from catastrophic winds of tropical cyclones.

“Alabama was an early adopter of FORTIFIED designations for wind loss mitigation,” the report says. “In 2025, there are more than 53,000 FORTIFIED houses in the state,” out of approximately 80,000 nationwide.

The state grants and insurance discounts have been a big motivator for homeowners to make the investment.  Lawmakers in other hurricane-prone states, such as Louisiana, are looking to Alabama’s strategy as they seek solutions for predicting and preventing losses from increasing natural disaster risks.

Learn More:

Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

JIF 2024: What Resilience Success Looks Like

Mitigation Matters – and Hurricane Sally Proved It

2025 Tornadoes Highlight Convective Storm Losses

Tornado activity in 2025 has surged, with more than 1,000 reported tornadoes as of May 28 and outbreaks spreading across nearly every state east of the Rockies this season, according to according to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Researchers have highlighted a shift in both the timing and geography of tornadoes, raising new safety concerns for communities outside the traditional Tornado Alley states.  The widening prevalence of tornado activity has some experts suggesting that the name “Tornado Alley” be retired.

The 1,010 tornadoes reported is almost 40 percent higher than the 15-year average of 727 tornadoes for the same period. Mississippi leads with 97 tornado reports, followed by Illinois (93), Missouri (89), and Texas (87), according to AccuWeather.

Severe convective storms – which include tornadoes – are among the most common, most damaging natural catastrophes in the United States. The result of warm, moist air rising from the earth, they manifest in various ways, depending on atmospheric conditions – from drenching thunderstorms with lightning, to tornadoes, hail, or destructive straight-line winds.

In 2024, according to Gallagher Re, the economic cost solely from weather and climate events was approximately $402 billion ($151 billion insured).  At least 41 percent of insured losses ($64 billion) resulted from severe convective storms.

So far this year, Gallagher said, the United States has recorded at least eight separate billion-dollar insured loss events from SCS activity so far in 2025. This compares to 13 such events by the end of May in 2024, 11 in 2023, six in both 2022 and 2021, and 12 in 2020.

 In addition to tornadoes, Gallagher said, large hail – measuring two inches or more in diameter – was a major factor in driving losses.

Learn More:

Severe Convective Storm Risks Reshape U.S. Property Insurance Market

Triple-I/Milliman: Severe Convective Storms Restrain P&C Growth

Triple-I Paper Looks at Convective Storms, Mitigation, and Resilience

Some Experts Suggest Retiring the Name “Tornado Alley”

Triple-I Facts + Statistics: Tornadoes and Thunderstorms

Hail: The “Death by 1,000 Paper Cuts” Peril

Triple-I Issues Brief: Severe Convective Storms (Members Only)

L.A. Homeowners’ Suits Misread California’s Insurance Troubles

By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Two lawsuits filed in Los Angeles claim major California insurers colluded illegally to impede coverage in wildfire-prone areas, forcing homeowners into the state’s last-resort FAIR Plan.  Accusing carriers of violating antitrust and unfair competition laws, the two suits exemplify an ongoing disconnect between public and insurer perceptions of insurance market dynamics, exacerbated by legislators’ resistance to accommodating the state’s evolving risk profile.

An untenable situation

Both suits claim the insurers conspired to “suddenly and simultaneously” drop existing policies and cease writing new ones in high-risk communities, deliberately pushing consumers into the FAIR Plan. Left underinsured by the FAIR Plan, the plaintiffs argue they were wrongfully denied “coverage that they were ready, willing, and able to purchase to ensure that they could recover after a disaster,” Michael J. Bidart, who represents homeowners in one of the cases, said in a statement.

Established in response to the 1965 Watts Rebellion, the California FAIR Plan provides an insurance option for homeowners unable to purchase from the traditional market. Though FAIR Plans offer less coverage for a higher premium, they cover properties where insurance protection would otherwise not exist. California law requires licensed property insurers to contribute to the FAIR Plan insurance pool to conduct any business within the state, meaning they share the risks associated with those properties.

Intended as a temporary solution until homeowners can secure policies elsewhere, the FAIR Plan has become overwhelmed in recent years as more insurers pull back from the market. As of December 2024, the FAIR plan’s exposure was $529 billion – a 15 percent increase since September 2024 (the prior fiscal year end) and a 217 percent increase since fiscal year end 2021. In 2025, that exposure will increase further as FAIR begins offering higher commercial coverage for farmers, homebuilders, and other business owners.

With a policyholder count that has more than doubled since 2020, the FAIR Plan faces an estimated $4 billion total loss from the January fires alone.

Out of touch regulations

Homeowners are understandably frustrated with dwindling coverage availability, which currently afflicts many other disaster-prone states. Supply-chain and inflationary pressures, which could intensify under oncoming U.S. tariff policies, help fuel the crisis. But California’s problems stem largely from an antiquated regulatory measure that severely constrains insurers’ ability to manage and price risk effectively.

Despite a global rise in natural catastrophe frequency and severity, regulators have applied the 1988 measure, Proposition 103, in ways that bar insurers from using advanced modeling technologies to price prospectively, requiring them to price based only on historical data. It also blocks insurers from incorporating reinsurance costs into their prices, forcing them to pay for these costs from policyholder surplus and/or reduce their presence in the state.

Insurers must adjust their risk appetite to reflect these constraints, as they cannot profitably underwrite otherwise. Underwriting profitability is essential to maintain policyholder surplus. Regulators require insurers to maintain policyholder surplus at levels that ensure that every policyholder is adequately protected.

Restricting insurers’ use of prospective data, however, inhibits risk-based pricing and weakens policyholder surplus, facilitating policy nonrenewals and, in serious cases, insolvencies.

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara implemented a Sustainable Insurance Strategy to mitigate these trends, including a new measure that authorizes insurers to use catastrophe modeling if they agree to offer coverage in wildfire-prone areas. The strategy has garnered criticism from legislators and consumer groups, one of whom is suing Lara and the California Department of Insurance over a 2024 policy aimed at expediting insurance market recovery after an extreme disaster.

“Insurers are committed to helping Californians recover and rebuild from the devastating Southern California wildfires,” Denni Ritter, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association’s department vice president for state government relations, said in a statement about the suit. “Insurers have already paid tens of billions in claims and contributed more than $500 million to support the FAIR Plan’s solvency – even though they do not collect premiums from FAIR Plan policyholders.”

A call for collective action

Litigation prolongs – it does not alleviate – California’s risk crisis. Government has a crucial role to play in addressing it, from adopting smarter land-use planning regulations to investing in long-term resilience solutions.

For instance, Dixon Trail, a San Diego County subdivision dubbed the country’s first “wildfire resilient neighborhood,” models the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) standards for wildfire preparedness, but not at a cost attainable to most communities, and few local governments incentivize them. Launched by state legislature in 2019, the California Wildfire Mitigation Program is on track to retrofit some 2,000 houses along these guidelines, with the goal of solving how to fortify homes more quickly and inexpensively. Funded primarily by FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance Grant program, the pilot has thus far avoided the same cuts befalling FEMA’s sister programs under the Trump Administration.

Regardless of what legislators do, California homeowners’ insurance premiums will need to rise. The state’s current home and auto rates are below average as a percentage of median household income, reflecting a combination of the increased climate risk and of the regulatory limitations preventing insurers from setting actuarially sound rates. Insurance availability will not improve if these rates persist.

To quote Gabriel Sanchez, spokesperson for the state’s Department of Insurance: “Californians deserve a system that works – one where decisions are made openly, rates reflect real risk, and no one is left without options.” Insurers do not wield absolute control over that system, and neither do legislators, regulators, consumer advocates, or any other singular group. Confronting the root causes of these issues – i.e., the risks – rather than the symptoms is the only path towards systemic change.

Learn More:

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

How Proposition 103 Worsens Risk Crisis In California

Tariff Uncertainty May Strain Insurance Markets, Challenge Affordability

Issues Brief: California Struggles to Fix Insurance Challenges (Members only)

Issues Brief: Wildfire: Resilience Collaboration & Investment Needed (Members only)

Data Granularity Key
to Finding Less Risky Parcels in Wildfire Areas

As high-severity natural catastrophes – wildfires, floods, hurricanes, and others – become more frequent and more people move into riskier locales, insurance affordability and availability have become a challenge in many states.

Insurers underwrite and price coverage based on the risks they’re assuming, and rising premiums in these states have pushed more homeowners into residual market mechanisms, such as state-backed insurance pools or agencies. Reliance on these funds – which often provide more limited coverage at higher costs – is not sustainable in the long term.

To ensure market stability and continued insurance availability and affordability, insurers must leverage more granular and dynamic risk models that account for real-time environmental conditions, mitigation measures, and property-specific characteristics. A new paper by Triple-I and Guidewire – a provider of software solutions to the insurance industry – uses case studies from three California areas with very different geographic and demographic characteristics to show how such tools can be used to identify properties with attractive risk properties, despite their location in wildfire-prone areas.

California’s risk profile

In addition to its particular risk characteristics, California’s insurance challenge is exacerbated by a 1988 measure – Proposition 103 – that has constrained insurers’ ability to profitably insure property in the state. In a dynamically evolving risk environment that includes earthquakes, drought, wildfire, landslides, and damaging floods, regulatory interpretation of Proposition 103 has made it hard for some insurers to offer coverage in the state.

In some cases, this has led to insurers limiting or reducing their business in the state. With fewer private insurance options available, more Californians are resorting to the state’s FAIR Plan, which offers less coverage for a higher premium. For many, this “insurer of last resort” has become the insurer of first resort. This isn’t a tenable situation for the state or its policyholders. California’s insurance availability/affordability challenges will require a multi-pronged approach, and underlying every component is the need for granular, high-quality, reliable data.

Modeling based on granular data

Guidewire’s analysis, based on its HazardHub Wildfire Score, has shown that wildfire mitigation and home hardening can reduce wildfire damage by as much as 70 percent. But identifying less risky lots in such areas is no easy task.

“Every property being assessed for wildfire risk is unique,” the report says. “Therefore, it’s important to subject as many relevant variables as possible to analysis. For example, proximity of structures to fuel is important – but, to be more predictive, it helps to know more: What kind of fuel? Is there potential for a wind-driven event? Is the property on a hill? If so, is it north-facing?”

Guidewire’s model includes standard variables, such as slope, aspect, wildfire history, wind, and the amount of nearby vegetation. It also includes differentiators like vegetation type and fire-suppression success rate.

“The traditional approach to wildfire risk assessment has left many Californians without access to affordable property insurance coverage,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio. “Our research shows that with more detailed, property-level analysis, insurers can confidently offer coverage in areas previously deemed too risky.”

Important moves by California

California has taken steps to address regulatory obstacles to fair, actuarially sound insurance underwriting and pricing – most notably, the state’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, an ambitious plan released by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara in 2023 plan aimed at safeguarding the health of the insurance market while ensuring long-term sustainability. A key component of the plan is a requirement that insurers writing homeowners coverage in the state write no less than 85 percent of their statewide market share in areas identified by the commissioner as “under-marketed.”

Tightly focused, data-driven analysis using tools like the HazardHub Wildfire Score, can go a long way toward helping insurers meet those requirements by identifying less risky parcels in undermarketed areas.

“The Triple-I analysis highlights how next-generation tools and data can uncover lower-risk properties – even in high-risk areas – empowering insurers to expand coverage confidently and responsibly,” said Leo Tenenblat, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Data and Analytics at Guidewire.

Learn More:

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

California Risk/Regulatory Environment Highlights Role of Risk-Based Pricing

How Proposition 103 Worsens Risk Crisis in California

Weather Balloons’ Role
in Readiness, Resilience

The National Weather Service (NWS) – part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – recently announced that it was reducing the number of weather balloons it launches across the country, citing staffing shortages at 11 NWS locations.

The launch cuts followed NOAA’s announcement of hundreds of layoffs or voluntary resignations across the agency, including at the NWS, related to efforts by President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a press conference that about 650 NOAA employees were among those fired, and his former colleagues in the agency said they had been ordered to “identify another 1,029 positions” for termination.

Some of these suspensions – for example, in Omaha, Neb. – have been lifted. Two meteorologists are set to arrive from across the country to staff the Omaha office following lobbying from Rep. Mike Flood (R. – Neb).

However, the future of launches from the remaining 10 locations remains unclear.

What do weather ballons do?

Apart from occasionally being taken for extraterrestrial aircraft, weather balloons rarely attract public attention. Carrying a device called a “radiosonde”, they typically fly for a couple of hours – potentially reaching 100,000 feet – and are used for several purposes, from gathering data for weather prediction models and local forecasts to providing input for pollution and climate research.

“Weather balloon launches can be especially critical in severe storm situations,” said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at Colorado State University and a Triple-I non-resident scholar. “They give us detailed information on temperature, pressure, and humidity that can help us determine potential impacts from tornadoes and hail.”

In addition, Klotzbach said, before U.S. hurricane landfalls, “NWS offices will often coordinate additional weather balloon launches to provide critical data to weather forecast models that improve predictions of the hurricane’s track.”

“While satellite technology continues to improve and provides invaluable information that has dramatically improved forecasting ability over the past several decades, weather balloons still serve a vital role in helping to predict weather events,” Klotzbach said.  

Taken-for-granted resources highlighted

As with the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s recent termination of its Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) grant and loan program, the sudden and substantial downsizing of NOAA’s data-gathering and forecasting resources underscores the extent to which government agencies that operate below the public’s radar screen help society and industry take steps to avoid costly losses related to weather- and climate-related events.  

In the absence of reliable federal support, it’s more important than ever for families, communities, businesses, and other stakeholders to work together to mitigate risks and build resilience. The insurance industry is uniquely well positioned to support and advance these efforts.

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