Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience

Contractor Fraud After Disaster: A Persistent Challenge in the Recovery Process

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By Loretta Worters, Vice President – Media Relations, Triple-I

Every major disaster exposes the same reality: recovery is not only about repairing physical damage, but also about navigating a complex and often fast-moving marketplace of contractors, vendors, and service providers.

In that environment, most contractors are legitimate professionals helping communities rebuild. But alongside them, a smaller group of bad actors repeatedly takes advantage of urgency, confusion, and emotional stress to exploit homeowners.

Contractor fraud is not a new phenomenon. What makes it especially concerning is its predictability. After storms, floods, wildfires, and other large-scale events, contractor fraud tends to follow the same pattern, targeting the familiar vulnerabilities in the recovery process.

During Contractor Fraud Awareness Week (May 18–22, 2026), the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB) are highlighting this recurring and financially damaging form of fraud and the role it plays in complicating disaster recovery.

At a time when severe convective storms, hurricanes, wildfires, and other catastrophes continue to generate significant property losses, fraud becomes an added layer of disruption. It increases costs, slows recovery, and undermines trust in the rebuilding process itself.

Fraud exploits the urgency of recovery

The conditions after a disaster are uniquely favorable to fraud. Homeowners are often displaced, dealing with insurance claims, and trying to restore basic stability as quickly as possible.

Unscrupulous contractors rely on that urgency. They may appear unsolicited at a homeowner’s door, distribute flyers in affected neighborhoods, or advertise rapid repair services online. Their offers are often framed as time-sensitive opportunities requiring immediate action.

The result can be rushed decisions, limited vetting, and agreements signed under duress rather than informed review. According to NICB, reported cases of contractor fraud have increased 38% in the past three years.

“Contractor fraud remains one of the most common schemes reported after major storms and catastrophes,” said David J. Glawe, president and CEO of NICB. “These bad actors prey on families when they are most vulnerable, often leaving behind incomplete work, poor workmanship and financial hardship.”

Why slowing down matters

One of the most important protections against contractor fraud is also one of the most difficult to apply in real time: resisting urgency.

After a loss, the instinct to restore normalcy quickly is entirely understandable. But speed without verification can create long-term consequences that are far more costly than a brief delay in decision-making.

“After a disaster, homeowners are often under tremendous pressure to make repairs quickly, which can make them vulnerable to dishonest contractors,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO of Triple-I. “Taking time to verify credentials, compare estimates and carefully review contracts can help homeowners avoid costly scams during the recovery process.”

Fundamentally, fraud prevention in this space is about process discipline: verifying licensing and insurance, obtaining multiple estimates, documenting terms clearly, and ensuring no payments are made under pressure or before work is completed.

Strengthening industry and law enforcement response

While consumer awareness is essential, contractor fraud is also a system-level challenge that requires coordinated industry and law enforcement response.

NICB is expanding its efforts this year with five days of training opportunities for insurance carriers and law enforcement. These sessions focus on identifying and investigating patterns of fraud in areas such as hail damage, water mitigation, mold, and general property claims.

The organization is also working with state policymakers to support official recognition of Contractor Fraud Awareness Week. Over the past five years, 35 states and Puerto Rico have formally recognized the initiative, reflecting growing recognition of the issue at the state level.

In parallel, NICB is broadening public outreach through a national media tour across more than 20 television markets, a public service announcement campaign reaching more than 100 markets nationwide, and ongoing social media engagement designed to improve consumer awareness and prevention.

A shared responsibility in resilient recovery

Disaster recovery depends on more than insurance claims and construction capacity. It depends on trust, information, and informed decision-making at the point of repair.

Fraud undermines that system and increases costs for consumers, slows rebuilding, and diverts resources away from legitimate recovery efforts.

Addressing fraud requires sustained attention from insurers, law enforcement, policymakers, and consumers themselves. While no single intervention eliminates the risk, awareness and due diligence remain the most effective tools available to homeowners.

Consumers who suspect contractor fraud or insurance fraud should contact their insurance company, local law enforcement, or the National Insurance Crime Bureau at 800-TEL-NICB (800-835-6422). Tips can also be submitted anonymously by texting TIP411 with keyword “FRAUD.”

More information and resources are available at NICB’s Contractor Fraud Awareness Week resource center: https://www.nicb.org/CFAW

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Regulation, Risk-Based Pricing

NFIP Proposals Highlight Urgency of Collective Action on Resilience

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Proposed reforms to FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) would expand the role of private insurers in the flood market as part of a broader push for state and private sector participation in long-term disaster management and resilience.

Congress established NFIP in 1968, at a time when few private insurers were willing to write flood coverage. While private participation in the flood market has grown in recent years, NFIP has continued to cover more than half of all U.S. homeowners with flood insurance.

In their report released May 7, the FEMA Review Council described NFIP as “unsustainable” and “burdened by over $20 billion in debt” due to its “one-size-fits-all” approach to flood mapping, which “does not fully capture current or emerging flood hazards” on national and local scales. These shortcomings have contributed to inadequate insurance pricing and flood risk misconceptions among homeowners, exacerbating low flood insurance take-up rates in at-risk communities, the report said.

To ensure the availability of comprehensive flood protection, the report recommended establishing a depopulation program or a centralized flood insurance marketplace to shift more policies into the private market. Risk-based pricing for NFIP policyholders can also incentivize private involvement, the report said, as premiums adjust to reflect actual risk.

This transition builds upon NFIP’s Risk Rating 2.0 reforms, which aimed to make premium rates more actuarially sound and equitable by better aligning them with individual, property-level risk. As NFIP rates became further aligned with principles of risk-based pricing, some policyholders’ prices fell as many others rose, which boosted private market opportunities. Updates to the reforms based on new data could attract even greater private participation, the report said.

Private coverage gaps

Though flood was once considered an “untouchable” risk for the private market, advanced analytics capabilities and data sources have helped give them the comfort and flexibility they need to write the coverage. Federal regulations introduced in 2019 also allowed mortgage lenders to accept private flood insurance if the policies abided by regulatory definitions, propelling double-digit growth in private appetite.

Despite growth, private companies currently write only 27 percent of the flood market. Roughly 4.7 million homeowners have flood coverage through NFIP nationwide.

Mark Friedlander, Triple-I’s senior director of media relations, told USA Today Florida Network that private insurers are unprepared to take on all the risk NFIP covers, especially as flood risk severity rises.

“While private flood insurance is growing, NFIP remains vital for providing widespread, actuarially sound coverage against damages excluded from standard homeowners policies,” Friedlander said.

Ahead of a temporary NFIP lapse in 2025, a letter penned by organizations across the risk and insurance industry suggested the program’s absence “could further impact affordable housing, create additional challenges for small businesses, unnecessarily further increase the cost of homeownership, and must be avoided.”

Resilience key to insurance availability

For communities that invest in floodplain management, disbanding NFIP could disqualify homeowners from flood insurance premium discounts. FEMA currently incentivizes such practices through its voluntary Community Rating System, which rewards NFIP policyholders with corresponding discounts as high as 45 percent.

At a meeting with the FEMA Review Council before the 2025 lapse, NAIC members expressed support for these mitigation initiatives, with North Dakota Insurance Commissioner and NAIC Past President Jon Godfread adding “state insurance regulators are committed to expanding access to flood insurance through both the NFIP and private coverage.”

The recent restoration of FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program underscores the benefits of such multi-sector collaboration. Before its cancellation last year, the program had allocated more than $5 billion for investment in mitigation projects to alleviate human suffering and avoid economic losses from floods, wildfires, and other disasters.

Reinstated with several new rules to improve its impact, BRIC also “isn’t a perfect program, but it’s a necessary one,” said Daniel Kaniewski, CEO of Northstar Risk & Resilience, a former FEMA deputy administrator, and a Triple-I non-resident scholar. Though changes to the program may drive smarter resilience investment, he cautioned that “BRIC alone – or any federal program on its own – isn’t going to close the nation’s disaster resilience gap.”

“It’s going to take community leaders, emergency managers, businesses, nonprofits – and, of course, the insurance industry – pulling in the same direction,” Kaniewski said. “The burden can’t exclusively fall on property owners and federal taxpayers.”

Insurers have worked hard to develop partnerships that address these challenges. Strengthen Alabama Homes, for instance – financed by the insurance industry with more than $86 million in grants since 2016 – offers homeowners’ insurance discounts for those who build or retrofit their homes to voluntary IBHS construction standards for wind and hail resilience, prompting numerous states to implement their own programs.

Incentives and public-private collaboration will be critical to keeping insurance affordable and available amid the mounting toll of extreme weather. Swiss Re data indicates flooding, wildfires, and severe convective storms drove a record 92 percent of total global natural catastrophe insured losses in 2025, fueling a “decades-long trend of rising baseline risk.”

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Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Hurricane, Regulation, Risk-Based Pricing

N.Y. Natural Catastrophe Exposure Highlights
Risk-Based Pricing Benefit

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

New York may be less exposed to frequent natural catastrophes than states like Florida or California, but it is far from immune to massive catastrophe losses.

A recent white paper by risk modeler Karen Clark & Co (KCC) cautions against underestimating the Empire State’s vulnerability – or that of other states not typically identified with large-scale natural disasters. A future 1-in-100-year hurricane event in New York could cost insurers more than $100 billion, KCC reported, with a 1-in-250-year event potentially costing twice as much.

“Beyond hurricanes, New York also experiences substantial impacts from both severe convective storms and winter storms, which together generate almost $1 billion in average annual property losses in the state,” KCC notes.

As state lawmakers consider strengthening requirements for prior approval of premium rate increases to rein in rising costs, KCC suggests that cost reduction strategies that account for these potential impacts would help ensure “property insurance remains both available and affordable.”

Underlying cost drivers

New York is exposed to nearly $9 trillion in potential insured losses, $6 trillion of which is concentrated along the coast. Contributing factors include property location and associated rebuilding costs, demonstrating, in part, demographic shifts placing more people in harm’s way, KCC said.

“Even if rates remain constant, premiums will rise over time to reflect the increasing cost of construction,” the report said. It added that such costs for an average single-family home have doubled over the past decade.

With trillions in loss exposure, the state faces outsized impacts, even from less intense storms. For instance, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 – despite making landfall in New Jersey as a Category 1 storm – generated almost $10 billion in insured losses in New York. Based on current exposure, insured losses in New York would exceed $13 billion, with total losses climbing to $31 billion.

A Category 3 hurricane that made landfall in the state in 1938 would produce more than $20 billion in insured losses today, KCC said. The state’s “worst-case scenario,” however, is if a similar storm hit close to Rockaway Beach in New York City, as losses in the hundreds of billions would ripple through “the most populated areas of the state.”

Sustaining market health

In testimony to the New York State Senate in November 2025, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) estimated that such an event “would wipe out 69 years of homeowners’ insurance return on net worth. ” APCIA noted that New York State is second only to Miami in vulnerability to a hurricane exceeding $100 billion in losses.

At the same state senate hearing, Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Patrick Schmid testified on market adjustments insurers made in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, such as updating rates and establishing reserves for Sandy-related claims that extended beyond the year of impact.

These changes have allowed state homeowners’ insurance premiums to remain “relatively average and reasonable as a percentage of household income,” contradicting “the narrative of an affordability crisis in New York’s homeowners’ insurance market,” Schmid explained.

“In other words, the ‘profitable decade’ reflects a market that learned from a major catastrophic event and adjusted accordingly,” Schmid said. “This is how insurance markets should function.”

Importance of risk-based pricing

Insurance pricing must reflect increased risks to maintain policyholder surplus, or the funds regulators require insurers to keep on hand to pay claims. Regulatory constraints on risk-based pricing in some states have forced insurers to write fewer policies or withdraw from state markets entirely, leading to less affordable and available coverage.

Unlike its homeowners’ market, New York’s auto expenditures rank among the highest in the country, driven by repair costs as well as accident frequency and fraud, according to a Triple-I Outlook. Proposals to give New York regulators the authority to block auto premium rate changes could erode surplus and further push insurers to rethink their risk appetite in the state, which already imposes a restrictive “excess profit” law.

The role of profit in insurance pricing is not merely to reward insurers for the risks they assume. As KCC puts it, profit is “the mechanism through which insurers compensate capital providers for risk.” Rather than intervene in insurance markets, policymakers should aim to provide “a regulatory environment that allows insurers flexibility to set adequate rates.”

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Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane, Roof Condition, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wind

Mississippi Set to Launch Roof Grant Program

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Mississippi recently adopted a program that will offer homeowners grants of up to $10,000 for roofs built to the FORTIFIED™ standard, following in the footsteps of states across the country to mitigate the rising frequency and severity of extreme weather.

Developed by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), the FORTIFIED™ standard can help reduce high wind and hail damage through construction methods like sealing roof decks and anchoring roofs to wall framing using stronger nails. While such standards remain voluntary, many insurers in Mississippi began providing premium discounts for homes that meet the designation, prompting state lawmakers to further incentivize their construction.

The Magnolia State is only the latest to follow Alabama’s lead, which largely pioneered these incentives through its own Strengthen Alabama Homes program, financed by the insurance industry with more than $86 million in grants since 2016. Designed to enhance community resiliency while also lowering insurance rates, completed retrofits earn residents premium discounts ranging from 25 to 55 percent.

Slated to begin accepting applications later this year, Strengthen Mississippi Homes authorizes the state’s insurance department to allocate $15 million a year towards grants and gives the department flexibility in determining grant eligibility as the program rolls out. More than one thousand homes are expected to qualify each year, including in inland areas and along the coast.

Notably, the new grant program builds on the state’s preexisting hurricane-specific mitigation initiative, in part reflecting growing nationwide vulnerability to other perils. While global insured losses fell below average in the first quarter of 2026, Gallagher Re analysis shows that U.S. convective storms were among the largest loss events, including a March tornado outbreak that killed multiple Mississippi residents and caused upwards of a billion dollars in insured damages throughout the Midwestern and Eastern U.S.

Mississippi ranked fourth in the nation for tornado frequency in 2025, at 111 tornadoes, according to data from the National Weather Service. Currently, it ranks second for such activity, at 48.

Modeling what works

Research from the Alabama Department of Insurance, in collaboration with the University of Alabama Center for Insurance Information and Research, has demonstrated the success of Strengthen Alabama Homes. The study found FORTIFIED homes suffered less property damage and fewer insurance claims than homes built using other construction methods when Hurricane Sally made landfall in the state.

Programs modeled on Alabama’s have sprouted throughout the United States, including in coastal Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Farther inland, Oklahoma just opened its program statewide after three pilot launches last year, and Kentucky unveiled its $5 million program for the first time last month. Similar efforts are underway in Minnesota after the state established a grant program in 2023, with full implementation expected during 2026. Arkansas’ program also remains under development.

Insurers have long called for boosting roof resilience within and beyond hurricane-prone regions. IBHS research estimates 70 to 90 percent of storm-related insurance claims involve roof damage, meaning roof upgrades can substantially minimize losses and improve market stability, keeping insurance affordable and available for more homeowners. In addition to making homes safer, the study revealed FORTIFIED™ homes sell for nearly 7 percent more than similar homes with non-FORTIFIED™ roofs.

Mounting demand suggests such improvements are gaining traction even beyond state grant programs. An unprecedented 20,000-plus designations were issued in 2025 alone, at a 20 percent increase over the prior year, keeping IBHS on track to reach a nationwide total of 120,000 by the end of 2026.

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Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Roof Condition, Wildfire

Resilient Post-Wildfire Rebuilding Pays Off

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Recovery from wildfire devastation takes time, and building back with an eye toward greater resilience is essential. The average timeline for post-disaster reconstruction typically ranges from one to three years. Full economic recovery for communities impacted by the 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County will likely take decades.

“Rebuilding after disaster requires more than just restoring what was lost,” stressed Janet Ruiz, Triple-I’s California-based communications director. “Take the time to build back stronger and with resilience in mind so your family, home, and community are better protected against ongoing wildfire risk.”

Many homeowners in the affected region are striving to rebuild smarter rather than rushing to replace what was lost, such as through the IBHS Wildfire Prepared Home™ program – a voluntary approach that empowers homeowners to reduce wildfire risk to their home and property.

“Spending time with families who lost everything in the Los Angeles wildfires, you feel how heavy every rebuilding decision is,” said Laura Blaul, senior wildfire fellow at the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS). “People aren’t just choosing materials, they’re asking, ‘Will this protect my home next time?’ Once homeowners understand how wildfire actually destroys homes – how embers, heat, and flames find their way in – they start asking better questions and making different choices.”

Depending on the project, these choices include investing in fire-rated roofing, ember-resistant vents, noncombustible sliding, and additional features outlined by the program’s Base and Plus Designations. Earning the latter can lead to premium discounts from some insurers, reflecting the program’s “science-backed and practical path” to “making homes more survivable and insurable,” Blaul said.

A painfully slow process

Debris removal and environmental testing before rebuilding began quickly for the communities hit hardest by the Los Angeles fires, but it may require months to years to complete. From there, homeowners must acquire permits to rebuild, which building codes and other regulations can delay. Throughout this process, homeowners and renters will work with their insurers and mortgage lenders to secure payments for damages, adding additional time.

Availability of contractors and building materials can create another bottleneck, especially with thousands of damaged L.A. homes needing immediate attention. Research from Associated Builders and Contractors indicates the construction industry must attract an estimated 349,000 new workers nationwide to keep pace with demand in 2026, suggesting construction backlogs beyond recovering areas will substantially stall rebuilding.

Families and communities benefit

A first-of-its-kind study from the California Department of Insurance and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners revealed that rebuilding L.A. communities to IBHS standards could reduce average wildfire losses by one-third, underscoring the widespread benefits of improved building construction at a property level.

More broadly, a separate report from Milliman, the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, and the Western Fire Chiefs Association urges wildfire-prone states to prioritize risk mitigation over reactive fire suppression, particularly within the built environment. Providing a framework to improve resilience statewide, their report highlights strategies to identify and quantify wildfire risk and emphasizes the role of education and outreach to secure buy-in from property owners, community leaders, and other co-beneficiaries of risk reduction.

Resources for homeowners

Residents rebuilding after the fires can find guidance and assistance through:

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Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Insurers and the Economy, Risk Management

Welcome Back, BRIC

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By Jeff Dunsavage, Head of Research Publications and Insights, Triple-I

The restoration of FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program after its sudden cancellation a year ago is good news for communities that will benefit from the program.

Congress established BRIC through the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 to ensure a stable funding source to support mitigation projects annually. Before its cancellation on April 4, 2025, the program had allocated more than $5 billion for investment in mitigation projects to alleviate human suffering and avoid economic losses from floods, wildfires, and other disasters.

At the time the program was cancelled, Chad Berginnis, executive director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM), was critical of the decision.

 “Although ASFPM has had some qualms about how FEMA’s BRIC program was implemented, it was still a cornerstone of our nation’s hazard mitigation strategy, and the agency has worked to make improvements each year,” Berginnis said.

A coalition of 23 states challenged the cancellation and secured a court order requiring FEMA to restore billions in funding to communities that rely on the hazard-mitigation program. In a March 6 ruling, a U.S. district judge Richard G. Stearns gave FEMA 21days to unfreeze the approximately $750 million in grants that have been in limbo since the cancellation, which it did on March 31.

Tighter scrutiny

The restored BRIC program is largely the same statutory program, but now it operates under tighter judicial and congressional scrutiny. FEMA also explicitly states that the restored program:

  • Prioritizes infrastructure and construction projects that deliver immediate, measurable risk reduction;
  • Limits capability‑ and capacity‑building activities to those directly tied to infrastructure; and
  • Excludes stand‑alone planning activities not connected to physical mitigation outcomes

“BRIC isn’t a perfect program, but it’s a necessary one,” said Daniel Kaniewski, CEO of Northstar Risk & Resilience, a former FEMA deputy administrator, and a Triple-I non-resident scholar. “It was formed to help drive investment in creating disaster-resilient communities – a very real need.”

Kaniewski drew comparisons with the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) “Risk Rating 2.0” reforms, which aligned NFIP premiums more closely with the risk characteristics of insured properties. Before the reforms, lower-risk property owners frequently subsidized the coverage of higher-risk homes. Risk Rating 2.0 made rates fairer and the program more fiscally sound. But further reforms to NFIP are necessary, just as BRIC may need to be updated based on lessons learned from the first few years of the program’s implementation. 

Kaniewski offered a final caution.

“BRIC alone – or any federal program on its own – isn’t going to close the nation’s disaster resilience gap,” he said. “It’s going to take community leaders, emergency managers, businesses, nonprofits – and, of course, the insurance industry – pulling in the same direction. The burden can’t exclusively fall on the property owners and federal taxpayers.”

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Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane

CSU Projects “Somewhat Below Normal” 2026 Hurricane Season

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Colorado State University (CSU) researchers predict a “somewhat below normal” Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2026 projections, citing the likely development of a robust El Niño event as the primary reason for their forecast of six hurricanes this year.

Led by senior research scientist and Triple-I non-resident scholar Phil Klotzbach, the CSU TC-RAMS team predicts 13 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes, or those that reach Category 3 strength or higher. A typical Atlantic season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The team’s forecast stems from conditions favorable for a strong El Niño, characterized by above-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Typical El Niño events “tend to increase winds high up in the atmosphere,” Klotzbach explained, which increases levels of vertical wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction.

Noting “too much shear tears hurricanes apart,” Klotzbach said that “especially when those events are moderate or strong, they cause very significant impacts in Atlantic hurricane activity.”

A potential record-setting super El Niño on the horizon would suggest impacts far beyond the Atlantic, including extreme heat around the globe. Bringing drought to some regions and flooding to others, the event would help suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while boosting hurricane as well as typhoon risks in the Pacific.

But while “the odds of landfall do go down when the forecast is for below normal activity,” Klotzbach emphasized “there have been significant landfalls in seasons that were somewhat below normal.”

For comparison, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes. Among those five, four became major, including three Category 5 storms – marking only the second year on record that more than two such storms occurred in the Atlantic Basin. Though none made landfall in the U.S., the Category 5 Hurricane Melissa tied with 1980’s Hurricane Allen for the strongest Atlantic Basin landfall by wind speed on record, causing widespread damage throughout the Caribbean.

While the season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, now is the ideal time for families and businesses to review their policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have adequate coverage. Many may be unaware they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters, or commercial property insurance policy. Flood policies are offered through FEMA’S National Flood Insurance Program and dozens of private insurers.

Homeowners can also upgrade their residences to voluntary standards for wind and heavy rain resilience, as modeled by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS). Retrofitting roofs to IBHS FORTIFIED standards, for instance, has demonstrated success in reducing hurricane damage, prompting numerous state governments to begin providing premium discounts to policyholders with completed retrofits.

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Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance

Flash Floods Set Records in 2025, Inland Risk Surges

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Deadly floods swept through the United States at a record pace in 2025, triggering more flash flood warnings than any year to date. With flood events in 99 percent of U.S. counties over the past 20 years, more communities are vulnerable to flooding than ever before, especially as exposure spreads increasingly inland.

Many homeowners, however, remain unprotected from the risk, underscoring a growing coverage gap as more people move into harm’s way. A new Triple-I Issues Brief explores the insurance industry’s role in closing that gap, as well as the public outreach and mitigation investment needed to reduce losses for all co-beneficiaries of flood resilience.

Extreme weather on the rise

Floods – alongside severe convective storms and wildfires – accounted for nearly all insured global losses last year, at $98 billion of $108 billion, according to Munich Re estimates. In the United States, inland flooding from both tropical and severe convective storms caused much of the devastation, led by the unprecedented Central Texas flood that claimed more than 130 lives.

Defined by NOAA as a rapid swing between two extreme environmental conditions, “weather whiplash” is becoming increasingly frequent in states like Texas and California, where prolonged droughts collide with periods of heavy rains and flooding, amplifying their effects. Fueled by increased tropical moisture from higher ocean temperatures, these drought-to-flood/hot-to-cold transitions drove many of the 21 billion-dollar severe convective storms in 2025, more than any prior year on record.

Flood market growth continues

Many homeowners remain unaware that a standard homeowners’ policy doesn’t cover flood damage or believe flood coverage is unnecessary unless their mortgage lender requires it. A separate 2023 study from Munich Re, in collaboration with Triple-I, found 64 percent of homeowners  believed they were not at risk for flooding. It also is not uncommon for homeowners to drop flood insurance coverage once their mortgage is paid off to save money.

Though more than half of all homeowners with flood insurance are covered by FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), federal regulations introduced in 2019 allowed mortgage lenders to accept private flood insurance if policies abided by regulatory definitions, steering a greater percentage of private insurers to the flood market. Between 2016 and 2024, the total flood market grew by nearly 43 percent – from $3.29 billion in direct premiums written to $4.7 billion – with 79 private companies writing just over 27 percent of the business.

Public-private partnerships are crucial

Comprehensive flood protection, however, entails more than adequate coverage. A joint study from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Allstate found every dollar invested in disaster resilience can save up to $33 in avoided economic costs down the line. The study emphasized the need for collective action at all levels – individual, commercial, and government – to minimize climate and weather losses.

The NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) is one such collaboration, which rewards homeowners with premium discounts of up to 45 percent when their communities invest in floodplain management practices exceeding the organization’s minimum standards. By incentivizing improved building codes, citizen awareness campaigns, and other mitigation initiatives, the CRS can strengthen at-risk areas while offering relief where still needed after the cancellation of programs like FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC).

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Disaster Preparedness, Regulation, Terrorism Risk

TRIA Reauthorization Bill Advances to the House

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

A bill that would extend the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) through 2034 recently cleared a U.S. House committee with strong bipartisan support, offering hope for the program’s renewal later this year.

Enacted in 2002 after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, TRIA created a federal backstop that shares catastrophic terrorism losses between insurers and the government, allowing private insurance markets and other industries to remain stable while absorbing such events. Congress has reauthorized TRIA four times since its inception, and no events have yet triggered the backstop.

With TRIA scheduled to expire at the end of 2027, many commercial property/casualty insurers are already preparing for the program’s potential lapse, driving risk and insurance leaders to urge proactive legislation ensuring its continuation.

“American businesses must be provided with the essential coverage to successfully operate in today’s uncertain global environment,” said Will Melofchik, CEO of the National Conference of Insurance Legislators, in a statement on the bill last year. “Failure by Congress to extend TRIA would likely result in the inability of insurers to offer coverage for future catastrophes resulting from terrorism, making terrorism risk insurance unavailable and unaffordable.”

Testifying on behalf of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), former Connecticut Insurance Commissioner and NAIC past president Andrew N. Mais said, “Businesses and consumers that live, work, and shop in communities in every state benefit from a stable insurance sector, which provides commercial terrorism insurance only because TRIA exists as a backstop.”

“Absent TRIA or a similar solution, we do not believe private insurance carriers would make meaningful capacity for affordable commercial terrorism coverage available,” Mais added.

Though the bill may evolve as it passes through the full House and Senate, it currently would raise the minimum loss threshold of $5 million to $10 million in 2029, as well as introduce a transparency measure that requires the Treasury Department to publish a notice in the Federal Register no less than 30 days after beginning the terrorism determination process.

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Floods, Severe Convective Storm, Technology, Tornado, Wildfire, Wind

Climate Nonprofits Take Responsibility for Terminated U.S. Databases

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I 

Amid federal funding and staffing cuts to major science agencies last year, various nonprofit organizations stepped up to maintain their essential climate and weather research. Such risks may become increasingly difficult to predict and prevent, however, as key agencies, such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), remain targets for disinvestment or termination.

Private sector takes charge

In the spring of 2025, the federal administration attempted to rescind tens of billions of dollars in research and hazard mitigation grants, leaving many programs – like FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program – in legal limbo as legislators continue to debate their futures. Alongside funding delays and cancellations, mass firings led to the shuttering of several climate and weather information resources – until private associations and researchers mobilized to revive them.

Former NOAA staffers, for instance, regrouped to rescue the organization’s climate.gov website, which attracted nearly one million visitors per month – including teachers, policymakers, and media outlets – before being dismantled last June. Under a new domain, the site will both restore deleted information and resume tracking and explaining the effects of climate risk to public audiences, relying exclusively on nonprofit funding, according to project director Rebecca Lindsey in an interview with NPR.

Similarly, nonprofit Climate Central recently released its first billion-dollar weather and climate disaster report since assuming responsibility for that dataset, which former NOAA climatologist Adam Smith continues to oversee. Beyond rebuilding NOAA’s database, the organization aims to expand upon it in the coming years to track smaller catastrophes, providing insurers and other stakeholders more reliable information to understand individual disasters.

An initiative spearheaded by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is now aiming to help fill research gaps left by the elimination of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), a series of congressionally mandated reports published since 2000 to inform climate risk mitigation strategies for municipalities and businesses. Though not intended to replace NCA, the new data collection “provides a critical pathway for a wide range of researchers to come together and provide the science needed” to “ensure our communities, our neighbors, our children are all protected and prepared,” said AGU president Brandon Jones.

Grassroots efforts to archive federal climate databases and tools before they disappear have also gained traction around the globe to ensure these resources remain publicly available. The nonprofit Open Environmental Data Project, for example, saved a now-deleted tool to identify communities disproportionately impacted by climate and weather risks through its Public Environmental Data Project.

Crucial agencies under scrutiny

While the latest government spending package has largely spared science funding from further reductions, the Trump administration had proposed cuts amounting to a 21 percent drop from fiscal 2025 levels. Other agencies face potential dissolution, particularly NCAR – widely considered the largest federal climate research program in the U.S.

Managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in collaboration with the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR houses advanced computing and modeling systems to support weather forecasts, mitigation planning, flood mapping, and other datasets needed across the transportation, engineering, utility, and risk and insurance industries.

Describing NCAR’s research as critical to “protecting lives and property, supporting the economy, and strengthening national security,” UCAR president Antonio Busalacchi said in a statement that “any plans to dismantle NSF NCAR would set back our nation’s ability to predict, prepare for, and respond to severe weather and other natural disasters.”

“NCAR datasets have been vital in improving our understanding of the atmosphere and ocean,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts and Triple-I Non-Resident Scholar. “These tools have been critical input to CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecasts for over 25 years.”

NCAR’s pending fate coincides with a recent study from the University of Florida that suggests the budget cuts in part reflect pervasive distrust in scientific institutions, necessitating stronger efforts to communicate the value of scientific work to the public. But as more independent groups take on the responsibilities once affiliated with federal organizations, building public relationships may prove even more challenging, posing uncertain implications for the future of climate and weather data as a whole.

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