For the last 35 years, the National Conference of Insurance Guaranty Funds (NCIGF) – an organization dedicated to serving 55 property/casualty state guaranty funds – has provided operational support; communications, education, and outreach; as well as public policy management for these organizations.
State guaranty funds make up a privately funded, nonprofit state-based national system that pays covered claims up to a state’s legally allowable limits, protecting policyholders if their insurer becomes insolvent. There are 55 such funds because some states have more than one.
“All states have a property/casualty guaranty association, and some have a workers compensation guaranty association,” NCIGF President and CEO Roger Schmelzer explained in a recent “Executive Exchange” with Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan.
“We’re not claims payers,” Schmelzer said, “We try to do things for our members that they wouldn’t be doing for themselves or that it’s better to be doing in one place.”
For nearly five decades, the guaranty fund system has paid out more than $35 billion to cover claims against about 600 insolvencies.
“Through the years, the system has successfully met every challenge that’s come its way, and has been instrumental in supporting the insurance promise,” Schmelzer said.
NCIGF recently announced its updated organizational strategy, which focuses on:
Pre-liquidation planning with regulators and receivers,
Understanding and preparing for the changing landscape in insolvencies, and
Seeking shared solutions to common problems among state associations.
“We want to understand better the trends and factors that could lead to insolvency,” Schmelzer said. “Then we want to do everything we can with our members, working through our educational arm, to make sure members are prepared for whatever those trends might bring.”
Homeowners insurance costs have continued to consistently rise in the wake of the pandemic, alongside several other challenges, according to a new Triple-I Issues Brief.
The COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked inflation – particularly with regard to replacement costs due to material shortages. Replacement-cost inflation has been exacerbated by a tight labor market. Even before the pandemic, loss costs had been rising steadily for some time, leading to homeowners insurance premiums climbing consistently from 2001 to 2021, according to the Insurance Research Council (IRC).
These cost factors, combined with rising losses related to natural catastrophes, have contributed to insurance affordability and availability issues, which vary by state. Disaster-related losses have increased over the past 30 years, due mostly to increasing severity of hurricanes and convective storms.
The brief notes that these costs surpassed household income growth, leading to decreased insurance affordability for many U.S. consumers. As expected, disaster-prone states have the least affordable homeowners insurance. The IRC ranks Florida as the state with the least-affordable coverage in the country.
Additionally, legal system abuse, which includes false claims of damage to homes. This has been a common issue in disaster-prone areas, where claims of roof damage, in particular, have substantially increased insurance costs.
The brief states that consumers and policymakers should be cognizant of the dynamics underlying these price shifts and understand why insurers must be forward looking in their approach to pricing these policies.
Hurricane Beryl’s rapid escalation from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane does not bode well for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season, which is already projected to be of above-average intensity, warns Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Philip Klotzbach.
“This early-season storm activity is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005, two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record,” Dr. Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, recently told The New York Times.
The quick escalation was a result of above-average sea surface temperatures. A hurricane that intensifies faster can be more dangerous as it leaves less time for people in its path to prepare and evacuate. Last October, Hurricane Otis moved up by multiple categories in just one day before striking Acapulco, Mexico, as a Cat-5 that killed more than 50 people.
After weakening to a tropical storm, Beryl made landfall as a Cat-1 hurricane near Matagorda, Texas, around 4 a.m. on July 8, according to the National Hurricane Center, making it the first named storm in the 2024 season to make landfall in the United States. Beryl unleashed flooding rains and winds that transformed roads into rivers and ripped through power lines and tossed trees onto homes, roads, and cars. Restoring power to millions of Texans could take days or even weeks, subjecting residents who will not have air conditioning to further risk as a sweltering heatwave settles over the state.
Extreme heat was just one climate-related topic addressed by Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio in an interview with CNBC’s “Last Call” on July 9. While most farmers are insured against crop damage due to heat conditions and homeowners insurance typically covers wildfire-related losses, Porfilio noted, a “more subtle impact is on roofs that we thought were built to a 20-year lifespan.”
When subjected to extreme heat, roofs can become more brittle and prone to damage from wind or hail.
“So, you have to think about the roof coverage on your home insurance policy,” Porfilio said.
He also pointed out that flood risk represents “one of the biggest insurance gaps in this country. Over 90 percent of homeowners do not have the coverage.”
Many people incorrectly believe homeowners insurance covers flood damage or that they don’t need the coverage if their mortgage lender does not require it.
In an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan discussed the potential impact of the predicted “well above-average” 2024 season on the U.S. property/casualty market.
“This is what the insurance industry is prepared for,” Kevelighan said. “It keeps capital on hand after writing policies to make sure that those promises can be kept.” The P/C industry has $1.1. trillion in surplus as of March 31, 2024.
Kevelighan pointed out that the challenges to the industry go beyond climate-related trends, explaining how legal system abuse, regulatory environments, shifting populations, and inflation are impacting insurers’ loss costs.
In Florida, for example, “you’ve got over 70 percent of all homeowners insurance litigation residing in that state, whereas it represents less than 10 percent of the overall claims.”
He pointed out that Florida’s insurance market has improved – with homeowners insurance premium growth flattening somewhat – as a result of tort reform legislation and added that Louisiana’s legislature addressed insurance reform during its most recent session.
“In California, insurers can’t catch up with inflationary costs because of regulatory constraints,” Kevelighan noted. “They are not able to model [climate risk] and are not able price reinsurance into their policies.”
California’s wildfire situation is complex, and the state’s Proposition 103 has hindered insurers’ ability to profitably write homeowners coverage in that disaster-prone state. In late September 2023, California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara announced a package of executive actions aimed at addressing some of the challenges included in Proposition 103. Lara has given the department a deadline of December 2024 to have the new rules completed.
Home and auto insurance premium rates have been a topic of considerable public discussion as rising replacement costs and other factors – from climate-related losses to fraud and legal system abuse – have driven rates up and, in some states, crimped availability and affordability of coverage.
It’s important for policyholders and policymakers to understand the role of economic conditions and trends in setting rates. Jennifer Kyung, Property and Casualty Chief Underwriting Officer at USAA, opens a window into the complex world of underwriting and economics in a recent episode of Triple-I’s All Eyes on Economics podcast.
Kyung told podcast host and Triple-I Chief Economist and Data Scientist Dr. Michel Léonard that economic analysis “is critical to us in underwriting and as we manage our plan.” She described economics as “part of our muscle memory as underwriters” – adding that the economic uncertainty of recent years reinforces the need for underwriters to have “a very agile mindset.”
Underwriting and economics are “a little bit art and science,” representing a balancing act between sophisticated data analytics and creative problem-solving.
“When we think about sales and premiums for homeowners, we may look at things like mortgage rates or new home starts to indicate how the market is going,” Kyung said. “In auto, we might look at new vehicle sales or auto loan rates. These, in combination, help us look at macro-economic trends and the environment and how that might interplay with our volume projections. That helps us with financial planning, as well as operational planning.”
“It’s really critical to keep these on the forefront on an ongoing basis throughout the year,” she said, “so we can adjust as needed…. As our results come in, this gives context to the results.”
Through continual analyses of external market conditions and the internal quality and growth of your business, Kyung said, underwriters “can manage and mitigate some of the volatility and risk for our organizations.”
A tool she recommends for evaluating economic indicators is Triple-I’s replacement cost indices, which track the evolution of replacement costs throughout time across various lines of insurance and geographic regions. These indices enable insurers to synthesize raw economic data and insurance market trends, providing an auxiliary framework to bolster financial and operational planning.
Kyung said Triple-I offers additional insight into “local flavor,” or “understanding what the emerging issues are…related to the local environment,” through such tools as Issues Briefs and Insurance Economics Profilers. Recent supply-chain disruptions have accentuated the relationship between local and global economies, revealing the importance of employing local economic analytics to interpretations of broader insurance market patterns.
Such fusions can help facilitate efficient planning in the face of shifts in the insurance landscape.
The full interview is available now on Spotify, Audible, and Apple.
Homeowners insurance premium growth in Florida has slowed since the state implemented legal system abuse reforms in 2022, according to a Triple-I analysis.
As shown in the chart below, average annual premiums climbed sharply after 2020. This was due in part to inflation spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine as well as longtime challenges in the state with claim fraud and legal system abuse.
Source: Triple-I analysis of NAIC and OIR data
According to the state’s Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR), Florida accounted for nearly 71% of the nation’s homeowners claim-related litigation, despite representing only 15% of homeowners claims in 2022, the year Category 4 Hurricane Ian struck the state. In that same year, and prior to Ian making landfall in the state as a first major hurricane since 2018’s Hurricane Michael, six insurers declared insolvency. Hurricane Ian became the second largest on record by insured losses, in large part because of the extraordinary litigation costs estimated to result in Florida in the aftermath.
The Florida Legislature responded to the growing crisis by passing several pieces of insurance reform, primarily tackling problems with assignment of benefits (AOB), bad-faith claims, and excessive fees. For example, the new laws eliminated one-way attorney fees in property insurance litigation, forbid using appraisal awards to file a bad-faith lawsuit, and prohibited third parties from taking AOBs for any property claims. The legislation also ensures transparency and efficiency in the claims process and encourages more efficient, less costly alternatives to litigation.
A surge in litigation
Litigation spiked when backlogged courts reopened following the pandemic, then again when the reforms were passed in 2022 and 2023, as plaintiffs’ attorneys raced to file suits ahead of implementation of the legislation.
This increase in litigation, combined with persistently strong inflation, contributed to increased loss costs and premium increases. In 2022, average homeowners premium rates rose more than 17 percent, to $3,040. Premiums continued to rise in 2023, although at a decreasing rate, as inflation has moderated and legal reforms have kicked in.
There are early signs that the reforms are beginning to bear fruit. In 2023, Florida’s defense and cost-containment expense (DCCE) ratio – a key measure of the impact of litigation – fell to 3.1, from 8.4 in 2022, according to S&P Global. In dollar terms, 2023 saw $739 million in direct incurred legal defense expenses – a major decline from 2022’s $1.6 billion. For perspective, incurred defense costs in the two largest U.S. insurance markets in 2023 were $401.6 million in California, followed by $284.7 million in Texas. As the chart below shows, Florida’s DCCE ratio – even during its best years – regularly exceeds the nation’s.
As insurers have failed or left the state, Citizens Property Insurance Corp. – the state-run insurer of last resort and currently Florida’s largest residential insurance writer – has swelled with new business and lawsuits. Citizens’ depopulation efforts to move policyholders to private insurers contributed to policy counts falling to 1.23 million by the end of 2023.
It’s important to remember that all premium estimates are based on the best information available at the time and actual results may differ due to changes in market conditions. For example, earlier Triple-I projections that average annual homeowners premiums in Florida would exceed $4,300 in 2022 and $6,000 in 2023 assumed significant rate increases would be needed to restore profitability to the state’s homeowners market. These projections did not assume legislative reform or that Citizens would become the state’s largest homeowners insurance company, with many risks priced below the admitted and excess and surplus markets. Our projections also assumed inflation would continue to grow at rates similar to those prevailing at the time.
In light of the reforms and moderating inflation, we are now reporting lower average annual premiums of $3,040 (2022) and $3,340 (2023). The Florida OIR has reported average premium rate filings are running below 2.0 percent in 2024 year-to-date in the private market. Further, OIR indicated eight domestic carriers have filed for rate decreases and 10 have filed for no increase this year. Additionally, eight property insurers have been approved to enter the Florida market, with more expected this year.
Triple-I will continue to monitor and report on the evolving property insurance market in Florida.
The total value of lightning-caused homeowners insurance claims rose more than 30 percent in 2023, to $1.27 billion from $950 million in 2022, Triple-I estimates based on national claims data provided by State Farm.
The number of claims rose 13.8 percent during the same period, to 70,787 from 62,189, 10 states accounting for 57 percent of the total. The average cost per lightning-caused claim increased 14.6 percent, to $17,513 from $15,280.
“Rising inflation, including higher replacement, construction and labor costs impacted claim costs for the year,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. Triple-I released these estimates to in advance of Lightning Safety Awareness Week, which runs from June 23 to June 29.
“Lightning Safety Awareness Week highlights the dangers lightning poses to life and property and how insurers and policyholders are reducing these risks through effective mitigation efforts,” Kevelighan said.
Florida – the state with the most thunderstorms – remained the top state for number of lightning claims in 2023, with 6,003. However, Texas had the highest average cost per claim at $41,654.
Much of this damage is due to severe convective storms, which are among the most common, and most damaging natural catastrophes in the United States. The result of warm, moist air rising from the earth, these storms manifest in various ways, depending on atmospheric conditions – from drenching thunderstorms with lightning, to tornadoes, hail, or destructive straight-line winds.
Damage caused by lightning, such as fire, is covered by standard homeowners insurance policies. Some homeowners policies provide coverage for power surges that are the direct result of a lightning strike.
“Mitigating the risks of lightning strikes starts with a thorough assessment before a storm,” said Tim Harger, executive director at the Lightning Protection Institute, which provides resources for the design, installation, and inspection of lightning protection systems. “Lightning protection systems play a crucial role in safeguarding homes, businesses, and communities from the potential downtime and destruction caused by lightning strikes.
Average U.S. homeowners insurance premiums have increased at a rate that has outpaced household income from 2001 to 2021, according to a new report by the Insurance Research Council (IRC). In 2021 – the latest year for which data is available – homeowners spent an average of 1.99 percent of their income on homeowners insurance, up from 1.54 percent in 2001.
Affordability varies widely from state to state, and affordability rankings have fluctuated over time. In 2021, Utah was the most affordable state and Florida was the least affordable. Kansas, New York, and Washington, D.C., have demonstrated improvements from 2015 to 2021, and California, Montana, and Wyoming saw the greatest deterioration during the same period. Florida and Louisiana have consistently been the least-affordable states in the nation.
The analysis by IRC – like Triple-I, an affiliate of The Institutes – looks at homeowners insurance affordability at national and state levels and examines underlying cost drivers by state. It does not address affordability for specific demographic or geographic risk profiles. The report found that frequency and severity of natural disasters, economic conditions, rising construction costs, and litigation all significantly contributed to rising homeowners insurance costs.
“An understanding of what drives the cost of insurance is essential for consumers navigating the current insurance market,” said Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, IRC president and chief insurance officer for Triple-I. “Efforts to promote homeowner awareness and adoption of protective measures, strengthen state and local building codes, and encourage community resilience programs can all improve insurance affordability.”
Legislative reforms put in place in 2022 and early 2023 to address legal system abuse and assignment-of-benefits claim fraud in Florida are beginning to help the state’s property/casualty insurance market recover from its crisis of recent years, according to a new Triple-I Issues Brief.
Claims-related litigation is down, the “depopulation” of the state’s insurer of last resort continues apace, and underwriting profitability – while still in negative territory – has improved significantly. Insurers also benefited from a relatively mild 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and a meaningful increase in investment income, posting a net profit for the first time in seven years.
But it’s important to remember that the crisis wasn’t created overnight and that it will take time for the reforms and other developments to be reflected in policyholder premiums. Homeowners should not expect their rates to decline in 2024, despite the improved industry performance, although some regional insurers have filed for small decreases.
“Rates may moderate some compared to prior years,” said Mark Friedlander, Triple-I director of corporate communications, “but rising replacement costs – combined with expected higher reinsurance costs for the June 1 renewals – are going to continue to drive average premiums upward in 2024.”
One factor keeping upward pressure on rates is fraud and legal system abuse. With only 15 percent of U.S. homeowners insurance claims, the state accounts for nearly 71 percent of the nation’s homeowners claim-related litigation, according to Florida’s Office of Insurance Regulation.
There are early signs that recent legislative reforms are beginning to bear fruit. In 2023, Florida’s defense and cost-containment expense (DCCE) ratio – a key measure of the impact of litigation – fell to 3.1, from 8.4 in 2022, according to S&P Global.
But the catastrophe-prone state faces a number of natural challenges, from a projected “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season to wildfires, flooding, and severe convective storms.
“Hurricanes get the most media attention,” Friedlander said, “but severe convective storms inflict comparable losses. And it only takes one bad hurricane season to wipe out the benefits of one or more mild years.”
Insurers paid $1.12 billion in dog-related injury claims in 2023, according to research by Triple-I and State Farm.
The total number of dog-bite and related claims was 19,062 in 2023 – an increase of more than 8 percent from 2022 and a rise of 110 percent over the past 10 years.
However, the average cost per claim decreased from $64,555 in 2022 to $58,545 in 2023. California, Florida, and Texas had the most claims.
“Education and training for owners and pets is key to keeping everyone safe and healthy,” said Janet Ruiz, director of strategic communications at Triple-I.
“As the largest property insurer in the country, State Farm is committed to educating people about pet-owner responsibility and how to safely interact with dogs,” added Heather Paul, media relations specialist at State Farm. “It is important to recognize that any dog, including ones that are in the home, can bite or cause injury.”
During Dog Bite Prevention Week (April 7 – 13), a coalition of veterinarians, animal behavior experts, and insurance representatives urge people to understand the risks dog bites pose to people and other pets and the steps required to prevent bites from happening.
“Dogs are not just pets; they are beloved members of our households, providing joy, companionship, and comfort in our lives,” said Dr. Rena Carlson, president of the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA). “Together, we can nurture the bonds we share with our dogs and ensure the safety of our families and communities.”
Tips to prevent dog bites
All dogs – even well-trained, gentle dogs – can bite when provoked, especially when eating, sleeping, or caring for puppies. Therefore, it is essential to keep both children and dogs safe by preventing bites wherever possible. The National Dog Bite Prevention Week Coalition provides the following tips:
Make sure your pet is healthy. Not all illnesses and injuries are obvious, and dogs are more likely to bite if they are sick or in pain. If you haven’t seen a veterinarian in a while, schedule an appointment for a checkup to discuss your dog’s physical and behavioral health.
Prioritize proper socialization: Socialization involves gently introducing your dog to a range of settings, people, and other animals, and ensuring these experiences are positive. Whether it’s quietly observing the bustle of a park, meeting new people in a controlled manner, or getting used to the sights and sounds of your neighborhood, each positive experience builds confidence. Remember, socialization is a lifelong journey, not just a puppy phase.
Take it slow. If your dog has been mainly interacting with your family since you brought them home, don’t rush out into crowded areas or dog parks. Try to expose your dogs to new situations slowly and for short periods of time, arrange for low-stress interactions, and look for behaviors that indicate your dog is comfortable and happy to remain in the situation.
Understand your dog’s needs and educate yourself in positive training techniques. Recognize your dog’s body language and advocate for them in all situations. This will give your dog much needed skills and help you navigate any challenges you might encounter.
Be responsible about approaching other people’s pets. Ask permission from the owner before approaching a dog and look for signs that the dog wants to interact with you. Sometimes dogs want to be left alone, and we need to recognize and respect that.
Make sure that you are walking your dog on a leash and recognize changes in your dog’s body language indicating they may not be comfortable.
Always monitor your dog’s activity, even when they are in the backyard at your own house, because they can be startled by something, get out of the yard and possibly injure someone or be injured themselves.
Join the discussion on Facebook Live April 11
To assist in these efforts, members of the National Dog Bite Prevention Week Coalition—which includes the AVMA, State Farm®, Triple I, and Victoria Stilwell Positively—will be hosting a Facebook Live event on Thursday, April 11, at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
The event, moderated by certified animal behavior consultant and broadcaster Steve Dale, will discuss training tips to help prevent bites, how to safely socialize your dog after a period of isolation, and how to recognize the warning signs that a dog may bite. In addition, the coalition will be releasing the latest dog-related injury claims data. The panelists will also be answering questions submitted by the public during the event.
Colorado State University hurricane researchers predict an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast. The team cites record-warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes this year.
Led by senior research scientist and Triple-I non-resident scholar Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project forecasts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes during the 2024 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The 2023 season produced 20 named storms and seven hurricanes. Three reached “major hurricane” intensity. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean this season,” Klotzbach said. “Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind-shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record-warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”
One hurricane and two tropical storms made continental U.S. landfalls last year. Category 3 Hurricane Idalia struck Florida’s Big Bend region near Keaton Beach on Aug. 30 with wind speeds of 115 mph. It was the third hurricane, and second major hurricane, to make a Florida landfall over the past two seasons. Idalia caused storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread flooding in Florida and throughout the Southeast.
“The widespread damage incurred from Idalia last year highlighted the importance of being financially protected from catastrophic losses – and that includes having adequate levels of property insurance and flood coverage,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “Beyond Florida, we saw significant impacts from Idalia in southern Georgia and the Carolinas. All it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season’s start nears.”
With this forecast in mind, now is ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage. That includes exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters or business insurance policy.
Homeowners also can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system. Installation of a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters also boost a home’s resilience to a hurricane’s damaging winds and may generate savings on a homeowner’s insurance premium.
Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.
