By William Nibbelin, Head of Industry Data and Actuarial Science, Triple-I
After years of significant financial strain, the U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry is showing strong signs of recovery and stabilization. According to the latest Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report from Triple-I and Milliman, the industry’s net combined ratio (NCR) reached its lowest level in more than a decade in 2025, reflecting improved underwriting conditions as the sector navigates the tail-end of post-pandemic economic volatility and hyperinflation.
Economic Outlook
While the industry maintains demonstrated resilience, the economic environment signals greater uncertainty. Real GDP growth slowed to 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026, while inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target at 3.3 percent in March. Triple-I Chief Economist and Data Scientist Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, emphasized the cost drivers behind these results, explaining they “should be viewed in the context of the significant financial strain insurers have faced in recent years.”
“Although conditions have stabilized somewhat, insurers continue to operate in an environment marked by elevated catastrophe risk, higher claims severity, and ongoing economic uncertainty,” Léonard said. “Insurance employment declined 1.8 percent year over year in March, underperforming the broader labor market and reflecting continued weakness in sector employment conditions. Meanwhile, higher energy prices and persistent inflationary pressures continue to strain household and business finances.”
A critical factor for future growth is monetary policy. Forecasts for 2027 and 2028 hinge on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, with a holding pattern currently in place as the market monitors unemployment rates as a barometer for potential rate cuts.
Personal Lines Underwriting Results
The 2025 recovery was most visible in personal lines, which achieved a dramatic turnaround from supply chain-driven losses following the pandemic.
- Personal Auto: This segment reported a 2025 NCR of 91.8, a 3.5-point improvement from 2024. Net written premium growth slowed to 4.0 percent, its lowest level since 2021.
- Homeowners: Despite an active catastrophe year, including the Los Angeles wildfires in the first quarter, underwriting performance improved significantly. The 2025 NCR of 88.1 was the lowest in over a decade, aided by easing replacement cost pressures and prior pricing discipline.
Commercial Lines Underwriting Results
While property lines flourished, certain commercial lines face ongoing challenges:
- Commercial Auto and General Liability: These are the only major lines with an NCR above 100 in 2025. Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, explained that “litigation pressures and claims severity trends continue to result in elevated loss costs, constraining improvement in these segments despite broader industry strength.”
- Workers’ Compensation: This line remains a pillar of stability, with projected combined ratios in the low 90s through 2028. For 2025, the preliminary combined ratio is 91, at “an increase of about 5 points from the prior year,” said Donna Glenn, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI). Glenn added this change “is primarily due to an increase in the loss and underwriting expense ratios.”
Forward View
Underlying P/C growth for the first half of 2026 is forecast at -3.7 percent, a significant dip from the 1.6 percent growth in 2025. A recovery is anticipated beginning in 2027.
Replacement costs are a primary area of concern for long-term pricing. Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., noted, “replacement costs moderated significantly from their 2022 peak, but our forecasts show them re-accelerating through 2028 and eventually outpacing overall U.S. inflation.”
While property lines have strengthened, Schmid cautioned that “the industry faces a challenging road ahead with elevated catastrophe exposure, economic uncertainty, and persistent claims-cost pressures.”
New Deep-Dive Resource
To provide members with more granular insights, Triple-I has launched State of the Line Issues Briefs, a monthly series focusing on the nuances of individual segments. These deep dives are designed to help members navigate specific strategic planning challenges beyond high-level quarterly forecasts. In an addendum to the briefing, Triple-I shared key findings from these reports.
For the farmowners’ line, analysis revealed the producer price index for commercial machinery repair acts as a high-correlation leading indicator for premium changes. Additionally, a major structural shift was identified in fire and allied lines, where the standard market share dropped from 66.7 percent in 2016 to just 52.7 percent in 2024, as premiums migrated toward the excess and surplus and residual markets.








