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Affordability, Legal Environment

Triple-I Legal System Abuse Awareness Campaign Enters California, Illinois

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

As part of its continuing effort to highlight the impacts of legal system abuse, Triple-I has launched public awareness campaigns on the need for legal reforms in Los Angeles, Calif., and Cook County, Ill., which includes Chicago. The campaigns comprise brick-and-mortar billboards and digital scapes in high-traffic areas across both regions, all of which promote Triple-I’s updated StopLegalSystemAbuse.org microsite.

California and Illinois are perennial members of the American Tort Reform Foundation’s (ATRF) annual list of “judicial hellholes,” or jurisdictions where the organization believes legal system abuse runs rampant. Los Angeles topped its most recent list due to frequent nuclear verdicts and “novel theories of product and environmental liability” to the disadvantage of defendants, ATRF says, with Cook County ranked seventh.

A consumer guide co-authored by Triple-I and Munich Re outlines how such practices fuel rising insurance premiums and other cost burdens throughout the country, to the tune of $6,664 in added annual costs for an American family of four and 4.8 million in jobs lost nationwide. Per resident, these annual costs amount to $2,566.70 in California and just over $2,000 in Illinois, with both states losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every year.

Billboard lawyers blur reality

Attorney advertising often obfuscates this reality, implying plaintiffs win big rather than receive only a fraction of awarded damages. Triple-I’s most recent Issues Brief on legal system abuse notes that legal service providers spent $2.5 billion on millions of ads in 2024 largely to tout this messaging, which research suggests increases the number of plaintiffs in multidistrict litigation (MDL), or large, complex lawsuits consisting of multiple civil cases in different districts.

Additional research from Triple-I and the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) estimates that excessive litigation drove $231.6 billion to $281.2 billion in increased liability insurance losses from 2015 to 2024, a finding that economic inflation alone cannot explain. A separate Triple-I report on civil case filings reinforces the trend, revealing an estimated $42.8 billion in excess litigation value from motor vehicle tort cases filed between 2014 and 2023 in the federal and state civil courts.

Gaining momentum

Triple-I’s new campaigns build on the momentum of its parallel efforts in Georgia and Louisiana, where state lawmakers successfully passed sweeping legal system abuse reforms last year. Both states, for instance, have established greater oversight of third-party litigation funding to prevent outside investors from gaming the court system for profit. Though the reforms remain too recent to fully affect premiums, legal reforms in Florida model the kinds of subsequent market improvements these states can later expect.

Families and businesses across the country are grappling with rising costs. By distorting loss trends and propelling claims expenses, unnecessary and drawn-out litigation serves only to exacerbate the strain. Addressing these pressures requires ongoing dialogue between regulators, consumers, industry leaders, and other stakeholders to ensure fairness in the court system while supporting a stable insurance environment that keeps coverage accessible.

Learn More:

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Revealing Hidden Cost to Consumers of Auto Litigation Inflation

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

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Triple-I Brief Highlights Legal System Abuse and Attorney Advertising

Significant Tort Reform Advances in Louisiana

New Triple-I Issue Brief Puts the Spotlight on Georgia’s Insurance Affordability Crisis

Artificial Intelligence, Technology

Amid Data Boom, Actuarial Analysis Belongs in the Forefront

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Given the growing ubiquity of artificial intelligence, its practical applications may seem self-evident. But for actuaries – whose work hinges on rigorous modeling and explainable risk assessment – translating AI-driven insights into analysis may pose as many challenges as solutions. A well-defined balance between technological capability and ongoing actuarial judgement is essential to navigating this shift.

“The challenge is not that there’s too much data – it’s having an awareness of what you’re looking for and then finding it,” said Dr. Michel Léonard, Triple-I chief economist and data scientist, in a recent interview for the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) Institute’s Almost Nowhere podcast. “If you look at all the data and it’s not focused and translated, the signal is not going to be what you need.”

Noting that many AI models train on varied language sources, Léonard stressed that data understanding and preparation are crucial to confronting the “black box,” or opacity surrounding the training and internal decision-making processes of complex algorithms. To integrate AI into risk assessment, carriers will need to demonstrate the mechanisms and actuarial record behind the models they deploy, especially for regulators and the broader public.

Though dynamic wildfire models, for instance, “very clearly show that the risk is more frequent and severe,” ongoing transparency around how these models work will be key to building “a bridge between regulators and the industry,” Léonard said.

While such models have facilitated greater access to granular, real-time data, critical information gaps continue to impede effective risk forecasting, especially following the 2025 federal government shutdown. Beyond being the longest federal closure in U.S. history, the shutdown also delayed or left permanent gaps in crucial survey data on employment, inflation, and other economic indicators, fueling more uncertainty for decision makers heading into 2026.

“Because of this uncertainty, we’re forecasting on the trend, which means that we cannot stress test or include validation for those stress tests,” Léonard said. “The lack of data on the U.S. economy is the main challenge for us right now.”

Current tariff policies – especially those targeting materials used in repairing and replacing property after insured events – add to the ambiguity. Though insurers appeared to avoid “the worst-case scenario” of COVID-19 levels of market instability last year, strategic stockpiling of imported goods to circumvent later post-tariff prices may have obscured their full impact, Léonard explained.

A pending Supreme Court ruling will determine the future of these policies, leaving global markets and consumers braced for potentially rising costs. Yet Léonard emphasized the insurance industry’s resilience in managing such “extreme, black swan-type events,” pointing out “that’s why we have a reasonable and adequate policyholder surplus” and other assets to ensure consumers remain protected.

Listen to Podcast: Spotify, Apple, YouTube

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Tariffs, Shutdown Cloud 2026 Insurance Outlook

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Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance

Flash Floods Set Records in 2025, Inland Risk Surges

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Deadly floods swept through the United States at a record pace in 2025, triggering more flash flood warnings than any year to date. With flood events in 99 percent of U.S. counties over the past 20 years, more communities are vulnerable to flooding than ever before, especially as exposure spreads increasingly inland.

Many homeowners, however, remain unprotected from the risk, underscoring a growing coverage gap as more people move into harm’s way. A new Triple-I Issues Brief explores the insurance industry’s role in closing that gap, as well as the public outreach and mitigation investment needed to reduce losses for all co-beneficiaries of flood resilience.

Extreme weather on the rise

Floods – alongside severe convective storms and wildfires – accounted for nearly all insured global losses last year, at $98 billion of $108 billion, according to Munich Re estimates. In the United States, inland flooding from both tropical and severe convective storms caused much of the devastation, led by the unprecedented Central Texas flood that claimed more than 130 lives.

Defined by NOAA as a rapid swing between two extreme environmental conditions, “weather whiplash” is becoming increasingly frequent in states like Texas and California, where prolonged droughts collide with periods of heavy rains and flooding, amplifying their effects. Fueled by increased tropical moisture from higher ocean temperatures, these drought-to-flood/hot-to-cold transitions drove many of the 21 billion-dollar severe convective storms in 2025, more than any prior year on record.

Flood market growth continues

Many homeowners remain unaware that a standard homeowners’ policy doesn’t cover flood damage or believe flood coverage is unnecessary unless their mortgage lender requires it. A separate 2023 study from Munich Re, in collaboration with Triple-I, found 64 percent of homeowners  believed they were not at risk for flooding. It also is not uncommon for homeowners to drop flood insurance coverage once their mortgage is paid off to save money.

Though more than half of all homeowners with flood insurance are covered by FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), federal regulations introduced in 2019 allowed mortgage lenders to accept private flood insurance if policies abided by regulatory definitions, steering a greater percentage of private insurers to the flood market. Between 2016 and 2024, the total flood market grew by nearly 43 percent – from $3.29 billion in direct premiums written to $4.7 billion – with 79 private companies writing just over 27 percent of the business.

Public-private partnerships are crucial

Comprehensive flood protection, however, entails more than adequate coverage. A joint study from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Allstate found every dollar invested in disaster resilience can save up to $33 in avoided economic costs down the line. The study emphasized the need for collective action at all levels – individual, commercial, and government – to minimize climate and weather losses.

The NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) is one such collaboration, which rewards homeowners with premium discounts of up to 45 percent when their communities invest in floodplain management practices exceeding the organization’s minimum standards. By incentivizing improved building codes, citizen awareness campaigns, and other mitigation initiatives, the CRS can strengthen at-risk areas while offering relief where still needed after the cancellation of programs like FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC).

Learn More:

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Insurance Industry, Insurers and the Economy, Reinsurance and E&S

Triple-I Features Lloyd’s in Latest Issue Brief

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A diagram of Lloyd's, depicting the integration of the 3 core groups in the marketplace: Members, Syndicates, and Managing Agents

Triple-I’s latest Issues Brief, Lloyd’s: Trends and Insights, spotlights one of the world’s leading specialist insurance and reinsurance marketplaces. The brief explains how the nearly 350-year-old platform has functioned differently from the common stand-alone model while evolving into an integral source of capacity and resilience for the global 21st-century risk landscape.

Contrary to a common misperception, Lloyd’s is not a single insurer; rather it’s a marketplace – i.e. hub, network, platform – connecting risk brokers, underwriters, and capital providers who negotiate the transfer of risk. It consists of three core groups:

  • Members: Persons or corporate entities that provide the capital that funds a syndicate.
  • Syndicates: An accounting construct with assets, liabilities, and Profit and Loss (P&L) statement segregated from those of other Lloyd’s syndicates.
  • Managing Agents: Entities appointed by syndicate members to handle underwriting and claims, as well as oversee the governance and operations on behalf of the syndicates.

The arrangement allows policies to have multiple underwriters, enabling each underwriter to  take on more risk than they would have the appetite for as a sole underwriter. As a result, complex and hard-to-place risks can be covered.

​Another distinctive feature of Lloyd’s is its capital structure, also known as the “Chain of Security.”  The brief explains how the Chain of Security is designed to provide the financial backing for all insurance policies written at Lloyd’s. As a result of this setup, the major rating agencies typically apply a single financial strength rating (FSR) to all the policies written through Lloyd’s, regardless of which syndicates participate in the policy.

Successful handling of long-tail and complex risks –  where claims may emerge decades later  –  can be vital to fostering confidence in the larger insurance industry. Throughout its long history, Lloyd’s has been called upon to absorb extreme and unexpected losses while paying claims and recapitalizing. This track record includes playing a key role in supporting U.S. economic recovery, from major disasters, such as the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the September 11 attacks, Hurricane Katrina, and more recent hurricanes and wildfires.

Managing uncertainty in today’s fast-evolving risk landscape can require keeping abreast of interconnected threats that outpace traditional risk management strategies. Insurers and risk managers can improve the prediction and prevention of emerging threats across core strategic areas:

  • ​advancing analytics capabilities
  • strengthening capital resilience
  • collaborating across the industry

Centering these objectives, Lloyd’s cultivates channels for talent development, innovation, and new capital flows.

For example, its London Bridge 2 (LB2) platform gives institutional investors a flexible and efficient means to deploy funds into the Lloyd’s market, attracting approximately $2.5 billion in new capital since its launch in 2022. Lloyd’s education platform supports the sustainable growth of the market by equipping professionals with the insight needed to navigate the emerging risk landscape. And, Lloyd’s Lab – a product development accelerator designed to rapidly develop, test, and refine new products, concepts, and solutions – supported 48 U.S. startups, which collectively have raised $490 million to scale solutions tackling wildfire, flood, and cyber risks.

The United States is Lloyd’s largest market, accounting for roughly half of the marketplace’s global premiums. Excess and surplus underwriting accounts for over 60 percent of Lloyd’s total premiums written in the U.S. In 2024, this share worked out to $20.8 billion in surplus lines insurance capacity, approximately 16 percent of the entire U.S. surplus lines market.  Additionally, Lloyd’s gross written premiums for U.S. reinsurance totaled $9.86 billion in 2024, with the marketplace ceding around $2.9 billion annually in reinsurance premiums to U.S. reinsurers.

This special edition of the Triple-I issue brief series is part of ongoing efforts to educate and raise awareness about how insurance market participants support coverage affordability and availability.

Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

Take Care in Addressing Homeowners’ Premiums, Bloomberg Cautions Policymakers

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By Jeff Dunsavage, Senior Research Analyst, Triple-I

While rising homeowners’ insurance can be a problem for some consumers, a recent Bloomberg editorial cautions policymakers against pursuing “simplistic solutions, such as capping premiums, subsidizing homebuyers, or punishing investors.”

Instead, it recommends taking steps to increase investment in catastrophe resilience and mitigate claim cost drivers, such as legal system abuse.

Bloomberg attributes slumping condominium prices and rising rents, in part, to increasing homeowners’ insurance premiums.

“Average homeowners insurance premiums rose almost 25 percent from 2019 to 2024 in real terms,” the editorial says. While politicians “have been quick to blame greedy insurers,” the reality is more complicated. Contributing factors include:

  • Increasingly costly disasters – evidenced by a sharp increase in billion-dollar catastrophes. In 2025, Bloomberg says, insured losses from such calamities reached $108 billion.
  • Insufficient investment by states in disaster resilience measures, “such as retrofitting public works and enforcing appropriate building codes”.
  • Escalating legal costs that are passed on to homeowners.

“In many states,” Bloomberg says, “underwriters must contend with laws that favor plaintiffs, outsized jury awards, and a proliferation of funds that specialize in financing lawsuits. Research suggests that such costs have been the single biggest driver of premium increases in recent years.”

Also feeding higher premiums are increased replacement costs related to record inflation during and since the COVID-19 pandemic.

In attempts to address these rising costs, several states in recent years have introduced legislative measures that would do more harm to homebuyers than good. Illinois insurers last year narrowly avoided increased government involvement in insurance pricing as state legislators rejected “an extreme prior-approval system found nowhere else in the country,” according to a joint statement from the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, and the Illinois Insurance Association.

When California tried to artificially suppress premiums, “underwriters fled the market and left homeowners and the state’s insurer of last resort exposed to last year’s horrific wildfires”.  Since then, the state has allowed significant premium rate increases to lure insurers back.

Bloomberg recommends that states start by prioritizing the resilience of buildings and public works.

“Tax breaks and grants for hardening homes against floods, fire, and wind are a short‑term expense with long‑term benefits,” the editorial says, citing research that found communities lose as much as $33 in future economic activity for every $1 not invested in preparedness.

“The federal government, for its part, should commit to restoring FEMA’s pre‑disaster mitigation program and similar efforts,” Bloomberg says. “With strong oversight, such investment can protect property, limit job losses, accelerate rebuilding, reduce premiums, improve public health, and ultimately save money and lives.”

When it comes to litigation trends that put upward pressure on claim costs and, ultimately, premium rates, Florida offers an encouraging example.

“In 2021, the state was home to 6.9 percent of homeowner claims but 76 percent of the lawsuits against insurers,” Bloomberg says. “State lawmakers enacted reforms over the next two years that limited plaintiffs’ ability to allege negligence and recoup expenses, with significant results: At least 17 new insurers entered the market and dozens reduced premiums.”

Triple-I, its members, and its partners have long been engaged in helping policymakers and the public understand the forces that affect insurance affordability and availability and how they can help mitigate the factors that drive up costs.  

“It’s refreshing to see this type of thoughtful analysis of the homeowners’ insurance market by an authoritative financial news organization like Bloomberg,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan.  “Consumers and policymakers need to understand that higher premiums are a symptom of the current risk environment, not its cause.”

Learn More:

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Disaster Preparedness, Regulation, Terrorism Risk

TRIA Reauthorization Bill Advances to the House

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

A bill that would extend the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) through 2034 recently cleared a U.S. House committee with strong bipartisan support, offering hope for the program’s renewal later this year.

Enacted in 2002 after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, TRIA created a federal backstop that shares catastrophic terrorism losses between insurers and the government, allowing private insurance markets and other industries to remain stable while absorbing such events. Congress has reauthorized TRIA four times since its inception, and no events have yet triggered the backstop.

With TRIA scheduled to expire at the end of 2027, many commercial property/casualty insurers are already preparing for the program’s potential lapse, driving risk and insurance leaders to urge proactive legislation ensuring its continuation.

“American businesses must be provided with the essential coverage to successfully operate in today’s uncertain global environment,” said Will Melofchik, CEO of the National Conference of Insurance Legislators, in a statement on the bill last year. “Failure by Congress to extend TRIA would likely result in the inability of insurers to offer coverage for future catastrophes resulting from terrorism, making terrorism risk insurance unavailable and unaffordable.”

Testifying on behalf of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), former Connecticut Insurance Commissioner and NAIC past president Andrew N. Mais said, “Businesses and consumers that live, work, and shop in communities in every state benefit from a stable insurance sector, which provides commercial terrorism insurance only because TRIA exists as a backstop.”

“Absent TRIA or a similar solution, we do not believe private insurance carriers would make meaningful capacity for affordable commercial terrorism coverage available,” Mais added.

Though the bill may evolve as it passes through the full House and Senate, it currently would raise the minimum loss threshold of $5 million to $10 million in 2029, as well as introduce a transparency measure that requires the Treasury Department to publish a notice in the Federal Register no less than 30 days after beginning the terrorism determination process.

Affordability, Auto Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

New York Among
Least Affordable States for Auto Insurance

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

New Yorkers pay the fourth-highest personal auto expenditures in the United States, costing households an average of $1,935 in 2024, or 2.23 percent of the state’s median household income, according to Triple-I’s latest Affordability Outlook.

Up from New York’s average of $1,753 in 2023, Triple-I’s estimates reflect the burgeoning toll of several expenditure cost drivers in the Empire State, many of which are structural factors beyond the insurance industry. Citing data from the Insurance Research Council (IRC) – like Triple-I, an affiliate of The Institutes – the report highlights four cost drivers that rank among the highest in the country, including:

  • Repair costs: New York has the third-highest auto repairs costs in the United States, at $864 more than the national average;
  • Carrier expense index: New York has the third-highest carrier expense index for personal auto insurance, at 14.9 percent of losses;
  • Injury claim costs: New York has the third-highest average injury claim severity in the country, at more than twice the national average; and
  • Accident frequency: New York has the eighth-highest average frequency of personal auto accidents in the nation, at 3.09 accidents.

While traffic density, road conditions, and driver education can contribute to accident frequency and severity, excessive and fraudulent claims litigation also fuel rising auto insurance premiums and overall costs in the state. Wiping out billions of dollars in U.S. economic activity annually, legal system abuse costs New York residents 427,794 jobs and $7,027 for each household per year, earning the state a recurring spot on the American Tort Reform Foundation’s list of “judicial hellholes.”

A surge in staged crashes underpins these figures, leaving drivers increasingly vulnerable to fraudulent damage or injury claims. Such incidents – totaling 1,729 in New York in 2023 – keep upward pressure on auto rates for all policyholders, inflating average auto premium by as much as $300 per year, Triple-I estimates.

To alleviate these cost burdens, a package of state budget proposals was recently unveiled to secure $2 million in funding for investigations into alleged auto fraud and introduce new regulations that extend the timeframe for carriers to report suspicious claims. Another law would cap pain and suffering damages awarded to drivers who engaged in criminal behavior, such as those who were uninsured at the time of the incident.

New York policymakers also passed legislation last month aimed at third-party litigation funding (TPLF), or funding from often anonymous investors who can delay prompt settlements in exchange for a share of larger damage awards, thereby propelling claims costs. Though falling short of mandating TPLF disclosure during litigation, the new law parallels effective tort reforms in other states, offering hope toward insurance market stability.

Homeowners insurance holds steady

Conversely, New York’s homeowners insurance premiums “are relatively average and reasonable as a percentage of household income,” contradicting “the narrative of an affordability crisis in New York’s homeowners insurance market,” said Patrick Schmid, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, in written testimony to state lawmakers.

With a 2.11 percent ratio of homeowners insurance expenditure to median household income, New York ranks 29th in an affordability study by the IRC, suggesting property and replacement costs contribute to the state’s housing affordability issues.

Policy interventions in insurance markets “would address a symptom rather than the cause” of such issues, Schmid stressed, urging lawmakers to focus instead on improving building material and labor costs; litigation trends; and other inflationary pressures.

While the specific policy levers may differ, Florida’s legal reforms in 2022 and 2023 led to 17 new insurance companies entering the state and rate reductions for dozens of homeowners and auto insurers, including a 6.5 percent average rate decrease for the state’s top five personal auto insurers in 2025.

Once a “poster child” for legal system abuse, Florida’s success demonstrates the need for continued reform in 2026 to promote a more competitive insurance market and greater affordability for consumers.

Learn More:

Triple-I Testifies on New York Insurance Affordability

Florida Governor Touts Auto Insurance Rebates, Tort Reform Success

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

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Disasters, Litigation Reshape Homeowners’ Insurance Affordability

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Floods, Severe Convective Storm, Technology, Tornado, Wildfire, Wind

Climate Nonprofits Take Responsibility for Terminated U.S. Databases

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I 

Amid federal funding and staffing cuts to major science agencies last year, various nonprofit organizations stepped up to maintain their essential climate and weather research. Such risks may become increasingly difficult to predict and prevent, however, as key agencies, such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), remain targets for disinvestment or termination.

Private sector takes charge

In the spring of 2025, the federal administration attempted to rescind tens of billions of dollars in research and hazard mitigation grants, leaving many programs – like FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program – in legal limbo as legislators continue to debate their futures. Alongside funding delays and cancellations, mass firings led to the shuttering of several climate and weather information resources – until private associations and researchers mobilized to revive them.

Former NOAA staffers, for instance, regrouped to rescue the organization’s climate.gov website, which attracted nearly one million visitors per month – including teachers, policymakers, and media outlets – before being dismantled last June. Under a new domain, the site will both restore deleted information and resume tracking and explaining the effects of climate risk to public audiences, relying exclusively on nonprofit funding, according to project director Rebecca Lindsey in an interview with NPR.

Similarly, nonprofit Climate Central recently released its first billion-dollar weather and climate disaster report since assuming responsibility for that dataset, which former NOAA climatologist Adam Smith continues to oversee. Beyond rebuilding NOAA’s database, the organization aims to expand upon it in the coming years to track smaller catastrophes, providing insurers and other stakeholders more reliable information to understand individual disasters.

An initiative spearheaded by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) is now aiming to help fill research gaps left by the elimination of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), a series of congressionally mandated reports published since 2000 to inform climate risk mitigation strategies for municipalities and businesses. Though not intended to replace NCA, the new data collection “provides a critical pathway for a wide range of researchers to come together and provide the science needed” to “ensure our communities, our neighbors, our children are all protected and prepared,” said AGU president Brandon Jones.

Grassroots efforts to archive federal climate databases and tools before they disappear have also gained traction around the globe to ensure these resources remain publicly available. The nonprofit Open Environmental Data Project, for example, saved a now-deleted tool to identify communities disproportionately impacted by climate and weather risks through its Public Environmental Data Project.

Crucial agencies under scrutiny

While the latest government spending package has largely spared science funding from further reductions, the Trump administration had proposed cuts amounting to a 21 percent drop from fiscal 2025 levels. Other agencies face potential dissolution, particularly NCAR – widely considered the largest federal climate research program in the U.S.

Managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in collaboration with the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR houses advanced computing and modeling systems to support weather forecasts, mitigation planning, flood mapping, and other datasets needed across the transportation, engineering, utility, and risk and insurance industries.

Describing NCAR’s research as critical to “protecting lives and property, supporting the economy, and strengthening national security,” UCAR president Antonio Busalacchi said in a statement that “any plans to dismantle NSF NCAR would set back our nation’s ability to predict, prepare for, and respond to severe weather and other natural disasters.”

“NCAR datasets have been vital in improving our understanding of the atmosphere and ocean,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts and Triple-I Non-Resident Scholar. “These tools have been critical input to CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecasts for over 25 years.”

NCAR’s pending fate coincides with a recent study from the University of Florida that suggests the budget cuts in part reflect pervasive distrust in scientific institutions, necessitating stronger efforts to communicate the value of scientific work to the public. But as more independent groups take on the responsibilities once affiliated with federal organizations, building public relationships may prove even more challenging, posing uncertain implications for the future of climate and weather data as a whole.

Learn More:

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BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

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Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, General Liability, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Workers Compensation

Resilient U.S. P/C Market Performance Sets Stage for a Complex 2026

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I 

The U.S. property/casualty insurance industry demonstrated notable resilience throughout 2025, navigating a landscape marked by significant regional catastrophes and shifting economic pressures, according to the latest Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report from Triple-I and Milliman.

As the industry moves into 2026, the report notes, it does so from a position of historical strength yet faces an increasingly nuanced outlook shaped by market softening and lingering macroeconomic uncertainties.

The Triple-I/Milliman report is based on data through the third quarter of 2025,

Industry-Wide Performance and Profitability

The P/C insurance industry is forecast to achieve its lowest net combined ratio (NCR) in over a decade for the full year 2025. This achievement is particularly significant, given the challenges faced early in the year, including the devastating Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025.

A key driver of this success was the first Atlantic hurricane season with no U.S. landfall in 10 years. However, while profitability reached peak levels, top-line growth began to moderate. Aggregate net premium growth across all lines for 2025 is expected to be 5.9 percent, reflecting a continued slowing of the growth rate compared to 2024.

“We’re on track to achieve the lowest net combined ratio in over a decade, thanks in part to a hurricane season that spared the U.S. and strong homeowners performance, even after the Los Angeles fires in Q1 2025,” said Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., chief insurance officer at Triple-I. “Growth in personal lines premiums remains solid, and the narrowing gap between personal and commercial lines performance points to a cautiously optimistic outlook for the industry.”

Economic Outlook: Stability Meets Vulnerability

While the broader U.S. economy and the P/C sector remain stable, economists are keeping a close watch on emerging risks. The industry’s ability to maintain its momentum in 2026 may be tested by rising political and geopolitical tensions, as well as potential shifts in the labor market.

“Overall, the P/C insurance industry and the broader U.S. economy remain stable,” said Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I. “However, despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter, a closer look at the data suggests the U.S. economy may be increasingly vulnerable to rising economic, political, and geopolitical uncertainty. In particular, P/C replacement costs could still see significant increases in 2026, weighing on overall P/C performance.”

Léonard further highlighted that the labor market serves as a critical indicator, noting that a rise in the unemployment rate toward 5.0% over the next six months could potentially trigger an economic contraction.

Underwriting Results by Line of Business

Personal lines continue to anchor the industry’s profitability. Personal auto remains a standout performer with a forecast 2025 NCR of 94.4, an improvement over 2024 results. However, premium growth in this sector has slowed significantly, with net written premium growth expected to land at 3.6 percent — its lowest level since 2020. Homeowners’ insurance also showed remarkable recovery. Despite the heavy losses from the Los Angeles fires in the first quarter, the line’s 2025 NCR is forecast at 99.6, placing it on par with 2024 performance.

Commercial lines continue to face ongoing challenges in liability. While most of the industry enjoys profitability, general liability and commercial auto remain the only major lines forecast to stay above a 100 NCR for 2025. General liability continues to struggle with the highest Q3 direct incurred loss ratio reported in over 15 years.

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, detailed these persistent hurdles.

“General liability faces continued challenges,” Kurtz said. “Our 2025 net combined ratio is forecast to be similar to 2024, among the worst in over a decade. Losses are high, with Q3 direct incurred loss ratios being the highest in at least 25 years.”

He added, “While conditions may improve in 2026-2027, profitability remains a hurdle. Our general liability’s NCR expectations have risen following a challenging Q3, reflecting ongoing pressure in the segment. While some coverages are experiencing soft market conditions, aggregate premiums have been growing, but not enough to keep pace with loss trends.  We anticipate additional premium growth will be needed to improve general liability profitability.”

Workers’ compensation remains the strongest performing major line, with NCRs forecast to stay in the high 80s to low 90s through 2027. This sustained success is attributed to disciplined risk management and favorable prior accident year development.

“NCCI’s latest loss ratio trends continue to show declines,” said Donna Glenn, NCCI chief actuary. “In the current environment, modest year-to-year decreases are still expected.” Glenn noted that “while there have been a few rate increases filed in NCCI states, every state has its own story, and based on the latest data, NCCI does not anticipate any imminent reversal of current trends.”

Affordability, Auto Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment, Regulation

La. Auto Insurance Rates Benefit From Declines
in Frequency, Severity

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

More than 20 requests for auto insurance rate decreases have been filed with Louisana’s Department of Insurance by insurers since mid-2025. According to the department, the decreases were driven by reductions in accident frequency and severity.

“I’m glad to see positive movement on auto rates in Louisiana for the first time in years,” said Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple. “Because fewer accidents are contributing to these lower losses for insurers, we should not necessarily expect to see this level of decrease in future years unless we continue to pursue legal reform that addresses the foundational reasons our rates are the highest in the country.”

Temple said he hopes for further rate changes as the market continues to stabilize, citing Florida’s recent premium reductions after sweeping tort reform legislation in 2022 and 2023.

Longstanding affordability challenges

Among those who filed for rate decreases include Louisiana’s largest auto insurers, with the latest reductions impacting nearly 470,000 Progressive policyholders, or roughly 23.5 percent of the state’s auto market. More than one million State Farm policies also achieved lower average rates implemented this month.

While the statewide decreases can offer relief for drivers in one of the least affordable states for auto insurance, Temple cautioned that rates for individual policyholders will differ based on personal risk factors, urging consumers to shop among the “30 companies that have taken a rate decrease.”

The announcement arrives less than a year after Louisiana lawmakers passed a 2025 tort reform package to curb excessive lawsuits and a rate of bodily injury claims more than twice the national average. Beyond fueling higher insurance premiums in the state, such practices generate an annual $965 “tort tax” on every Louisianan and cost over 40,562 jobs per year, as highlighted by Triple-I’s consumer awareness campaign to build support for the reforms.

Other 2025 legislative measures, however, stipulate increased regulatory intervention in rate-setting, which can create further strain on an insurance market just beginning to recover. Another bill targeting nuclear verdicts (awards of $10 million or more) also failed to pass, playing a role in the state’s recurring spot on the American Tort Reform Foundation’s annual list of “judicial hellholes.”

Noting that reduced accident frequency contributed to the rate changes, Temple said in a statement that “we should not necessarily expect to see this level of decrease in future years unless we continue to pursue legal reform that addresses the foundational reasons our rates are the highest in the country.”

Lessons from Florida

Measurable benefits from Louisiana’s existing reforms may require a few more years to unfold, Temple added, based on the trajectory of similar legislation in Florida. In 2022, Florida accounted for over 70 percent of the nation’s homeowners claim-related litigation, despite representing only 15 percent of homeowners’ insurance claims, according to the state’s Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR). State legislators responded to the crisis with several tort laws that, among other things, eliminated one-way attorney fees and assignment of benefits (AOB) for property insurance claims.

Under the reforms, 17 new insurance companies have entered the Sunshine State and dozens of homeowners’ and auto insurers have filed for rate decreases, with Citizens Property Insurance – the state’s insurer of last resort – approved for major average rate cuts this spring, according to a recent announcement from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

A 50 percent drop in Citizens policies in 2025 helped facilitate the cuts, reflecting the largest transition of policies back to the private market in a decade. Later that year, additional cost-savings achieved through the reforms helped state regulators secure nearly $1 billion in premium refunds for Progressive auto insurance policyholders in the state.

Though the specific policy levers may differ, Florida’s reforms continue to model the kinds of market improvements that states like Louisiana and Georgia can expect after successfully passing their own tort legislation. State government moves like these are essential to eradicating legal system abuse and keeping insurance affordable and available, especially as legislative challenges to legal reform persist.

“Premiums are lowering because we’ve enacted real reforms and withstood the pressure to reverse course,” DeSantis said. “We will hold firm in our commitment not to go back to the broken insurance market of the past.”

Learn More:

Significant Tort Reform Advances in Louisiana

Florida Governor Touts Auto Insurance Rebates, Tort Reform Success

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Who’s Financing Legal System Abuse? Louisianans Need to Know

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