By Jeff Dunsavage, Senior Research Analyst, Triple-I
“Risk-based pricing” is a basic insurance concept that might seem intuitively obvious when described – yet misunderstandings about it regularly sow confusion and spark calls for government intervention that would likely do consumers more harm than good.
Simply put, it means offering different prices for the same level of coverage, based on risk factors specific to the insured person or property. If policies were not priced this way, lower-risk drivers would necessarily subsidize riskier ones.
Confusion ensues when actuarially sound rating factors intersect with other attributes in ways that can be perceived as unfairly discriminatory. A new Triple-I Issues Brief sorts out the reasons for such confusion and explains why legislative involvement in insurance pricing is not the answer to rising premiums. In fact, the report says, such involvement would tend to drive premiums up, not down.
Worries about equity
Concerns have been raised about the use of credit-based insurance scores, geography, home ownership, and motor vehicle records in setting home and car insurance premium rates. This confusion is understandable, given the complex models used to assess and price risk. To navigate this complexity, insurers hire teams of actuaries and data scientists to quantify and differentiate among a range of risk variables while avoiding unfair discrimination.
Triple-I’s brief shows how one frequently criticized rating factor for auto insurance – insurance-based credit scores – effectively tracks collision claim frequency. Drivers with the worst 10 percent of scores have twice as many collision claims as the best 10 percent. The sophisticated tools actuaries and underwriters use ensure fair, accurate pricing, and insurers do everything they can to see that all valid claims are paid on time and in full.
Climate and inflation
Areas that were once less vulnerable to certain natural perils – such as wildfire and hurricane-related flooding – increasingly are being affected by these costly events. Furthermore, more people have been moving into at-risk areas on the coasts and in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), putting more property into harm’s way.
Insurance pricing must reflect these increased risks to maintain policyholder surplus – the funds regulators require insurers to keep on hand to pay claims. In some states, this increased risk – combined with regulatory decisions that make it hard to raise premium rates to the levels needed to adequately meet it – has forced some insurers to reduce their exposure and not write as many policies and even withdrawing from states completely. In these states, not only has homeowners’ coverage become less affordable – in some cases, it has also become less available.
Another factor driving up premiums is inflation. As material and labor costs rise, the cost to repair and replace damaged homes and vehicles increases. If premium rates don’t reflect these increased costs, insurers would quickly exhaust their policyholder surplus. If their losses and expenses exceed their revenues by too much for too long, they risk insolvency.
A role for governments
Policymakers naturally want to address the impact of rising costs – including insurance premiums – on their constituents. A good start would be to help reduce risk by modernizing building codes and incorporating resilience into their infrastructure investments. Reduced risk and less costly damages would, over time, translate into lower premium rates.
Governments also can work with insurers and other stakeholders to incentivize homeowners to invest in mitigation and resilience. The Strengthen Alabama Homes program is a great example of one such collaboration between state government and the insurance industry that has measurably improved results and is beginning to be imitated by other states.
Learn More:
Calls for Insurance-Price Legislation Would Hurt Policyholders, Not Help
Easing Home Upkeep to Control Insurance Costs
Study Touts Payoffs From Alabama Wind Resilience Program
Insurance Affordability, Availability Demand Collaboration, Innovation
Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk
L.A. Homeowners’ Suits Misread California’s Insurance Troubles
Data Granularity Key to Finding Less Risky Parcels in Wildfire Areas
Calif. Risk/Regulatory Environment Highlights Role of Risk-Based Pricing
Actuarial Studies Advance Discussion on Bias, Modeling, and A.I.
Accurately Writing Flood Coverage Hinges on Diverse Data Sources