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Business Risk, Disaster Preparedness

COVID-19: Learn From History to AddressThe Current Outbreak

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By Dr. Steven Weisbart, CLU

Dr. Steven Weisbart

COVID-19, the new coronavirus, has killed more than three times as many people as the 2003 SARS epidemic.

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that, as of 10 a.m. Central European Time (CET) on March 1, there were 87,137 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 2,977 of the infected people had died. From November 2002 through July 2003, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 8,098 people worldwide became sick with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and 774 died.

More people are believed to have been infected with COVID-19 than official statistics show. This is because confirmed infections are based on positive tests for the virus, and some countries—including the United States—have been doing very little testing. Further, the estimated 2 percent death rate attributed to the disease is based on this unreliable infection count.

Instead of SARS, some are now comparing COVID-19 with the Ebola pandemic of 2014 to 2016.  Ebola is believed to have killed about 50 percent of those it infected, but that outbreak was contained before it reached the same number of infections as COVID-19.

So, is there a useful historic comparison to be made with COVID-19? I would argue that there is: the “Spanish Flu” of 1918-19.


Policemen in Seattle during the influenza epidemic. December 1918. National Archives.

There is no vaccine for COVID-19, and experts suggest  it could take a year or more to develop, test, manufacture, and distribute a vaccine. This suggests there are few medical strategies for dealing with the current outbreak. It’s as though we’re medically in the world of 100 years ago.

The 1918 flu virus had an estimated mortality rate of about 2 percent and was very infectious. It is estimated that as many as one-third of the entire world population was infected at some time, so even a 2 percent mortality rate caused millions of deaths.

This raises a scary thought about how the COVID-19 pandemic might play out: the Spanish Flu swept around the globe in three phases. The first  was in the Spring of 1918 and, although it infected widely, had a relatively low mortality rate. The second phase occurred in the Fall of 1918. This phase saw faster infection spread and was much more deadly. The third phase was in February and March of 1919 and was less infectious and less deadly than either of the two prior phases.

World War I – with large concentrations of soldiers in barracks and trenches and truck convoys moving across Europe – may have contributed to this infectious arc. But the virus killed more people than the war on every continent except Europe.

Insurance industry impact

What would a COVID-19 pandemic mean for insurers? The main impact would likely be on health insurers, since the number of people seeking hospitalization would likely spike claims far beyond anything their rate structures have anticipated. In 1918 hospitals were so overwhelmed that auditoriums, indoor sports arenas, and similar spaces were set up to house patients. Scarcity rates would apply; for example, the number of respirators available currently is far short of what would be needed, and prices for new supply would likely surge.

As I’ve written previously, for life insurers the effect of a severe pandemic would depend on which segments of the population are likely to die. In 1918, in addition to the very old, that virus struck unusually strongly at people in the prime working years, triggering benefits from both individual and group life insurance. The sudden impact of such unpredicted losses would affect all life insurers, particularly the weaker ones.

In the property and casualty sector, the line most directly affected is likely to be workers compensation, particularly for health care workers and others exposed to the virus as a result of their work—such as police, fire, and EMT. Another possible line affected is various liability lines, involving claims from people who became sick from manufacturing, dispensing, or receiving a vaccine or other treatments. In recent years, Congress passed laws blocking such liability claims, but it’s not clear that it will do so again today.

Beyond the direct effects to insurance, there are growing forecasts that the global economy, and especially particular sectors, could see dramatic cutbacks. Businesses and other organizations that involve people gathering in crowds are already seeing such effects, and insurance premiums that reflect these downturns are likely to follow. However, claims are also likely to turn down (e.g., fewer auto accidents), so the effect on those lines might actually be neutral or positive. 

Learn from history

Today people and goods move around the world with unprecedented speed. Urban environments and the transit systems that serve them are as packed with people as any military convoy or trench network.

If COVID-19 follows a similar track to that of the Spanish Flu, the current outbreak would turn out to have been a mild phase. If this scenario is correct, the first phase would taper off in a month or two, followed by several months in which the virus would appear to have ended its threat.

We should continue developing vaccines and other preventive/mitigating measures during this lull to better prepare for the more virulent phase that might manifest in the second half of 2020. Failure to do so would mean we’ve learned nothing from the worst global pandemic in the last 100 years.

Emerging Risks

COVID-19: A Teachable MomentFor Thinking About Risk

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As we take our precautions and wait for the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to declare COVID-19 a pandemic, now might be a good time to breathe and think about what this outbreak and other perils in the news can teach us about how we think about risk.

COVID-19 has spread far beyond its origins in China. People worldwide have been infected. Many in China and some beyond have died.

In addition to the human toll, concerns exist about disruptions to global supply chains, economic systems, and markets.

Nothing I’m about to say should be read as minimizing these dangers.

Not our first outbreak

But this isn’t the first infectious outbreak we’ve faced, and it won’t be the last. With people and products traveling the world and economies increasingly interconnected, disease transmission and commercial disruption related to it are inevitable.

How we handle them will be predicated upon how we think about risk.

At this writing, there are 60 cases of COVID-19 in the United States – none considered “Serious” or “Critical.” There have been no deaths and six recoveries. Compare these numbers with the 280,000 to 500,000  flu hospitalizations and 16,000 to 41,000 flu deaths this year to date, as reported by the CDC.[i]

Americans aren’t panicking about influenza, and the media aren’t giving the flu nearly as much attention as COVID-19. These facts appear to be related. As we previously reported, research suggests public anxiety about potential causes of death correlates with the amount of media play they receive; and the media often underreport threats that are statistically more substantial than dangers they emphasize.

We’re not panicking because we’re familiar with the flu and know the drill: wash your hands frequently; cough into your sleeve; avoid crowds as much as is reasonable.

Good news! Following this advice also helps slow the spread of COVID-19.

If we’re panicking over COVID-19, it’s due largely to the coverage it’s receiving and the fact that markets are reacting dramatically. Our reactions have little to do with the likelihood of our being infected.

Pedestrian dangers

Until WHO and CDC tell us otherwise, do you know what’s more likely to kill you than the coronavirus?

That’s right: An automobile.

According to a report published this week by the Governors Highway Association (GHA), pedestrian auto fatalities in 2019 were at their highest since 1988.

“During the 10-year period of 2009 to 2018,” the report says, “the number of pedestrian fatalities in the U.S. increased by 53 percent, from 4,109 in 2009 to 6,283 in 2018.”

It estimates 6,590 pedestrian fatalities occurred in 2019, the most in more than 30 years.

Possible reasons include smart phone use by pedestrians and drivers; increasing purchases of light trucks and SUVs relative to passenger cars; even more people walking due to warming temperature trends.

As word of this report spreads, don’t expect people to change their phone, car-buying, or walking habits. We accept these risks because we enjoy the freedom and control that goes with making our own decisions. We roll with them because they feel familiar and manageable.

As a colleague expressed it: “That’s why Jaws didn’t scare me. All I had to do to avoid sharks was to stay out of the ocean. Now, Freddy Krueger was another story….”

If you’d like to be better informed about relative mortality risks, the chart below is a good place to start. The list – which represents only accidental deaths – is by no means exhaustive.  In fact, a different study, based on data from the same year (2017), found accidental deaths were the third-largest mortality category, after heart disease and cancer.

Close behind accidents were respiratory disease and stroke.


Public anxiety over COVID-19 is due more to media coverage and market reactions than likelihood of infection.

[i] Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.

Insurance Industry

Preparing for a pandemic should be part of every household’s emergency plan

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Health officials in the U.S. have advised businesses, schools and communities to prepare for a possible outbreak of the COVID-19 coronavirus. On Tuesday, February 25, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said a wider spread of the virus in the U.S. can be expected, but the agency is uncertain of the severity of the threat.

The disruption to everyday life could be severe.

“It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the head of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC.

Being prepared for a pandemic should be a part of every household’s emergency plan. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Ready.gov website offers the following tips:

Before a Pandemic

  • Store a two-week supply of water and food.
  • Periodically check your regular prescription drugs to ensure a continuous supply in your home.
  • Have any nonprescription drugs and other health supplies on hand, including pain relievers, stomach remedies, cough and cold medicines, fluids with electrolytes, and vitamins.
  • Get copies and maintain electronic versions of health records from doctors, hospitals, pharmacies and other sources and store them, for personal reference. Get help accessing electronic health records.
  • Talk with family members and loved ones about how they would be cared for if they got sick, or what will be needed to care for them in your home.

During a Pandemic

  • Limit spread of germs and prevent infection.
  • Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
  • When you are sick, keep your distance from others to protect them from getting sick too.
  • Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing.
  • Washing your hands often will help protect you from germs.
  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth.
  • Practice other good health habits. Get plenty of sleep, be physically active, manage your stress, drink plenty of fluids, and eat nutritious food.

Here at the Triple-I blog, we’ve been following the news of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus disease both from an insurance industry and a public safety perspective over the past few weeks. For Triple-I members, we also make available a database of news abstracts. Members can access the latest news pertaining to COVID-19, by clicking here (scroll down on the page to the coronavirus in the news section).

Flood Insurance

Mississippi Flood Insurance Purchases Low, Despite Wetter Rainy Seasons – And They’re Not Alone

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Getty images

Hundreds of homes and businesses were damaged by flooding, as heavy rains inundated Jackson, Mississippi over the Presidents Day weekend, pushing the Pearl River to its third-highest crest ever.

“If these heavier rainfall events increase in frequency, our rivers and streams are going to be responding in line too,” said Suzanne Van Cooten, hydrologist in charge of the National Weather Service’s Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center to the Wall Street Journal.

Federal data show last year was the second wettest on record across the continental U.S., and Mississippi’s river communities are keeping an eye on forecasts after an unusually early start to the 2020 spring flood season following a soggy 2019.

Yet flood insurance take-up rates remain low. “The alarming truth is that entirely too many Americans could protect themselves with flood insurance, but simply don’t know the extreme risk of devastation they are facing, or even worse, they are deciding to take their chances and ignore it, said Sean Kevelighan, Triple-I CEO.  “Triple-I’s recent analysis of National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) data which is now illustrated in an interactive map of Mississippi counties along the Pearl River show some counties’ flood insurance take-up rates are as low as .01 percent. In other words, as much as 99.9 percent of people living in an active flood prone area are without any protection or recovery method. The intent of sharing this information is to encourage Americans to take more action to protect themselves by identifying the right insurance coverage, coupled with taking recommended precautionary measures, all of which are proven to dramatically boost their ability to recover from disaster.”

“Unacceptably low”

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in the U.S., causing billions in economic losses each year.  According to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), 90 percent of natural disasters in the U.S. involve flooding.  Flood damage is excluded under standard homeowners and renters insurance policies, but, flood coverage is available as a separate policy from the NFIP and from some private insurers.

Flood insurance was long considered an untouchable risk by private insurers because they didn’t have a reliable way to measure the risk. In recent years, however, modeling firms are getting better at assessing flood risk, and insurers have become more comfortable underwriting it.

Triple-I’s 2018 Pulse survey found 15 percent of U.S. homeowners had flood insurance, up from 12 percent who had the coverage in 2016. A McKinsey & Co. analysis found that as many as 80 percent of Texas, 60 percent of Florida, and 99 percent of Puerto Rico homeowners lacked flood insurance. Munich Re has called flood insurance take-up rates “unacceptably low.”

Reasons often cited for lack of coverage is that it is too expensive, that homeowners are not aware they don’t have it, and that people underestimate the risk of flooding.

At Triple-I’s 2020 Joint Industry Forum, FEMA Deputy Administrator for Resilience Dan Kaniewski and Weather Channel Hurricane expert  Dr. Rick Knabb, talked emphatically about the need for flood insurance – even where banks don’t require it to provide mortgages.

“When we at FEMA talk about ‘resilience,’” Kaniewski said, “we mean preparedness. We mean mitigation. We mean insurance. Insurance is the best resilience tool.”

Knabb agreed, calling upon meteorologists around the world to “talk about insurance more.” He also called on insurance agents to discuss flood coverage for their customers who aren’t in flood zones.

“If it can rain where you live,” he said, “it can flood where you live.”

Insurance Industry

Triple-I at 60: New World, Same Powerful Mission

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Sixty, many say, is the new 40. People living longer and in better health than ever before have opportunities for work, leisure, travel, and self-expression that previous generations could only dream of or regret not having seized.

Insurance has played a critical role in these improved circumstances by absorbing and distributing risks that otherwise would have made many types of investment prohibitively expensive — investment that directly affects everyone’s quality of life. And for the past 60 years, the Insurance Information Institute has supported the property/casualty insurance industry by helping the public understand risks and the products that help mitigate them.

“Property insurance is an integral part of our national economy. It is vital to business enterprise and to the establishment of credit. Nearly every individual American is directly affected by it.”

These words, from a 1959 announcement of the establishment of Triple-I, are as true and relevant now as they were then. But where that announcement referenced “fire, automobile…fidelity and surety, and inland marine insurance,” we would need to mention “cyber, terrorism, business interruption, supply chain, workers compensation, professional and management liability,” along with numerous other products and features that keep emerging to address the changing risk landscape.

The industry’s history of developing forms of coverage to meet businesses’ and individuals’ changing needs is evocatively illustrated in the following, from a 1962 Triple-I ad:

“During the same year that America’s property and casualty insurance companies provided special coverage for the first Telstar communications satellite, they also wrote more than $100,000 in horse and wagon policies. This year will also see a brisk business in false teeth coverage, rain protection, wedding gifts floaters and other unusual forms of insurance.”

As we continue to support the industry by advancing public awareness and understanding, we’re taking advantage of new tools and technologies to do so.  Sixty years ago, print, telephone, and face-to-face communication were the only games in town. Today, we reach broader and more targeted audiences through social media, webinars, blogs, conferences, and more.

A great example is the recent launch of a Risk and Resilience Hub in partnership with Aon and the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.  The Hub uses data visualization to help people understand natural catastrophe risks and make data-driven decisions when it comes to managing their exposures.

Far from slowing down and feeling creaky at 60, Triple-I is maintaining its strong pace and going where the industry and consumers need us to be.

The 1959 announcement I cited above invited “written or telephone inquiries” from “researchers, editors, writers, educators, students, librarians, civic groups, and the general public.”

Today, you can follow and engage with us on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn. #TripleI60 

Insurance Industry

Aimu and Triple-I Amplify: An effective marketing and communications partnership

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When John Miklus joined the American Institute of Marine Underwriters (AIMU) as president six years ago, he discovered the association had been in partnership with the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) for more than 20 years. But he wasn’t quite sure just what Triple-I did for their organizations.  He understood that Triple-I provided marketing and communications services – such as writing speeches and talking points on marine insurance issues for past presidents Walter Kramer and James Craig. But what Miklus soon came to realize and appreciate, was Triple-I’s profound understanding of the insurance business that no other marketing and communications firm provided, and the powerful partnership they had forged. 

In years past, AIMU had been hesitant, if not reluctant, to engage the media, according to Miklus.  “Working with the Triple-I changed all that. With adequate coaching and introductions to targeted media outlets, Triple-I facilitated a process that was comfortable and thoughtfully prepared. As a result, we got placement in high level media like the Wall Street Journal, and insurance trade press like Reactions magazine and AM Best-TV: taking us places we’d never been before and never thought we’d go.”  The partnership has not only heightened awareness of AIMU in the insurance industry, but with the public, making them more fully aware of the challenges facing the shipping industry and insuring marine risks.”

Triple-I Amplify is a PR consultancy built expressly for insurance organizations like AIMU, and Miklus says that partnership with Triple-I Amplify provides unique advantages his organization can’t get anywhere else. 

“It not only raises the visibility and credibility of AIMU, but also the importance and relevance of the marine insurance industry, in general,” he said.  “It’s never been more vital for a smaller niche product line to be connected to the rest of the insurance industry; our partnership with the Triple-I secures that connection.”

“This industry is much more complex than most people understand, but it’s our job to help translate subject matter into accessible information that’s easy to comprehend,” said Sean Kevelighan, president & CEO of Triple-I. “Working with our Amplify partners, we can quickly eliminate any learning curve and immediately provide marketing and communications services to meet their needs. We know this industry; we know how to communicate effectively; it’s what we do.”

The Triple-I Network

Triple-I serves approximately 70 percent of the U.S. property/casualty market (members) as well as industries that support the Triple-I mission such as trade associations, academia and think tanks (clients). We are the trusted source of unique, data-driven insights on insurance to inform and empower our clients. Another value Triple-I brings is access to distribution channels that tie clients to key industry stakeholders such as the carrier, broker and agency communities.

For 60 years, the Triple-I has been a trusted source of actionable, timely insight for consumers and professionals seeking insurance information.  We are the number one online source for insurance information. Our website, blog and social media channels offer a wealth of data-driven research, studies, whitepapers, videos, articles, infographics and other resources solely dedicated to explaining insurance and enhancing knowledge.

Amplify provides the following marketing and communication services to help elevate your brand:

If you’re interested in learning how Triple-I Amplify can help your non-profit or insurance trade association with marketing or communications services, please contact John Novaria, Managing Director, Amplify at johnn@iii.org.

Insurance Industry

A Better Tool to Predict Impact of Hurricanes? 

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Minimum sea level pressure can predict the scope of a storm’s  damage — including from storm surge, not just wind — and be more accurately measured in real time.

The more accurately experts can predict an impending storm’s impact, the better prepared individuals, communities, and businesses can be to soften the blow and bounce back. A recent paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society suggests an underutilized tool may be better at predicting hurricane damage than the traditionally used “maximum sustained wind speed.”

Atlantic hurricanes have a long history of financial impact. During 2017-18, hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, and Michael combined to cause more than $345 billion (U.S.) in direct economic damage.  The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale categorizes only the hurricane wind threat – not the totality of impacts, including storm surge and rainfall.

According to the paper,  several scales have been proposed to replace Saffir-Simpson, but most aren’t easily calculated in real time, nor can they be reliably calculated historically. For example, “storm wind radius” datasets extend back only about 30 years. 

Minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), the paper finds, is a better predictor of the scope of a storm’s  damage and can be more accurately measured in real time, “making it an ideal quantity for evaluating a hurricane’s potential damage.”

MSLP is the lowest pressure recorded in a hurricane.  It occurs at the center of the storm and is part of the large-scale structure of a hurricane’s vortex. Because winds are generated by differences in  barometric pressure between the hurricane’s eye and its perimeter, lower pressure is typically associated with stronger winds.  Also, if two hurricanes have the same wind speed, the one with the lower pressure typically will cover a greater area, potentially posing greater storm surge risk.

“With aircraft reconnaissance, MSLP can be reliably calculated,” the paper says. It’s also much easier to measure at landfall than is maximum sustained wind speed.

“Barometers are among the simplest meteorological instruments and will usually operate in a wide range of conditions,” the report says. Anemometers, which measure wind speed, “are prone to mechanical failure…precisely when they matter most.”

The paper was authored by Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach — a Triple-I non-resident scholar — along with scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), North Carolina State University, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and insurance broker Aon.


Careers and Employment, Insurance Industry

Generational Differences in the Workplace: What You Don’t Know Can Hurt Your Bottom Line

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Insurance Information Institute

Recently, I had the pleasure of speaking with Jennifer J. Deal, Ph.D., Senior Research Scientist with the Center for Creative Leadership (CCL), who helped provide insights into generational differences, leadership, and the insurance industry.

Deal will be speaking on many of these points at her upcoming talk at the WCRI’s 36 Annual Issues & Research Conference, March 5 and 6, 2020, in Boston, MA. She points to WCRI’s data-driven model as a mission she shares – and pushing for a greater understanding of the employees they both study. Deal also notes the importance of generating this data-driven understanding for the insurance business, which is tackling how to best engage and retain Millennial and Gen Z employees, groups that hold the future of the industry.

Why is studying Millennial engagement important?

Organizations want employees to be engaged and are deeply concerned that young people aren’t engaged at work. In general, when new cohorts come into an organization, it’s important to understand if anything is meaningfully different about them. If there is, then the organization can address it and hopefully continue to be effective as it integrates the new employees into the larger organization. 

How can a company use your insights to create a more cohesive, inclusive environment?

A company can use my work to help staff better understand the perspectives of the different generations.  Part of what my work does is provide data-based information about generations to clarify where there is a difference between stereotypes and reality.  This helps both leaders and people throughout organizations understand the perspectives of people from other generations who may or may not think like them.

How do generational differences affect the bottom line?

When people feel disengaged because they feel pushed aside or ignored simply because they’re from a particular generation, that’s a cost. When a company feels the need to implement very expensive training programs that aren’t necessarily going to improve how people work together because they don’t move the needle on the real issues, that’s a cost. When people leave because of unmet needs, that’s a cost. Unnecessary tension, conflict, and disengagement that arises because of generational stereotypes is a drag on the organization – and the bottom line.

Do you see all this affecting the insurance industry?

Definitely. I’ve had numerous conversations with leaders in the insurance industry about issues related to attraction and retention of the next generation of employees. One of the conversations we’ve had is about the desire of young people to have stability in their careers. Young people are much more interested in stability and long-term careers than people think they are. If that’s something the insurance industry can offer, it will likely be of great interest to young people.

Insurance Industry

Uncertainty Clouds Business Risks Related to Covid-19 Coronavirus

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Supply-chain disruptions due to Covid-19 could affect health care worldwide and lead to health, travel, life, workers comp, business interruption, and other claims. 


The Covid-19 coronavirus death toll has passed 1,300 and will likely continue to climb, with more than 60,000 cases reported worldwide. The loss of life and costs of identifying and caring for the sick are compounded by the following considerations:

China, where the virus originated and remains most prevalent, is the world’s largest producer of active pharmaceutical ingredients. In 2018, Politico reports, citing U.S. Commerce Department data, the country accounted for:

  • 95 percent of ibuprofen imports
  • 91 percent of hydrocortisone imports
  • 70 percent of acetaminophen imports
  • 40-45 percent of penicillin imports, and
  • 40 percent of heparin imports. 

China also is a major supplier of disposable medical devices like syringes and gloves, as well as surgical equipment. Michael Alkire, president of healthcare supply chain consultant Premier, told Modern Healthcare it’s hard to estimate how many of these goods come from China.

“There are critical pieces of upstream supply chain information that are unknown, including raw material suppliers, third party and contract manufacturers, sterilizers and more,” Alkire said. “Because reporting of this information is completely voluntary, most won’t do so until it becomes an industry-wide expectation and best practice.”

Any supply-chain disruptions could affect health care worldwide and lead to liability claims. 

“The good news is that most of the people dealing with China tend to have inventory,” said James Bruno, president of consulting firm Chemical and Pharmaceutical Solutions. “But if this doesn’t straighten out in the next three months, we could have some real problems with supply disruption.”

Health-care facilities and other business can become points of infection. Illnesses contracted in such locations can lead to workers comp claims, as well as claims alleging insufficient care was taken to protect customers and vendors from infection. Health workers who contract the virus on the job would likely be eligible for workers comp benefits, though compensability will be determined by the individual situation, policy wording, and laws of the relevant jurisdictions.

U.S. manufacturers rely on China to supply many industrial components and as a market for their own products. If the virus leads to closures of major ports, businesses in the affected countries could cancel contracts with or default on payments to their foreign counterparties. Contract frustration insurance may cover costs associated with such cancellations, depending on circumstances and the terms of their policies

Auto manufacturing could be an early industry to suffer. China shipped nearly $35 billion of auto parts in 2018, according to United Nations data. About $20 billion of Chinese parts were exported to the United States alone in 2018, according to the Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration. Supply disruptions lasting more than a few months could add momentum to rising auto repair costs.

Event and travel cancellations hurt local and national economies. Concerts and other public events in China have been cancelled over the virus, but its impact on tourism isn’t confined to that country. The contagion emerged right before Lunar New Year – when many Chinese typically travel in China and abroad.

China accounts for more than 10 percent of global tourism, Wolfgang Arlt, founder of the China Outbound Research Institute, said in an interview with National Public Radio. While the most popular destinations for Chinese visitors are in Asia, Arlt said, Paris, Sydney, and New York City also are favorites. That helped make China the biggest international tourism spender in 2018, pumping $277 billion into the travel industry, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization.

Due to China’s outsized role in global tourism, Covid-19 could affect travel, hospitality, and tourism-dependent businesses around the world. With cruise ships quarantined after the disease was detected, cruise lines may have to deal with longer-term impacts on their businesses, as well as immediate ones related to passenger care and vessel decontamination.

Past outbreaks, such as SARS, Ebola, and Zika, have led many insurers to exclude infectious diseases from coverage in their policies. While specific policies for infectious diseases have been developed, companies reportedly have been slow to purchase them.

Health & Safety

Infectious Disease: A Good Reason to Buy Medical Travel Insurance – But Check the Terms

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Faced with Covid-19 coronavirus, people – as they tend to during infectious outbreaks – have become concerned about whether and to what extent their insurance will cover costs associated with the event. In the case of travel insurance, there’s good, bad, and ambiguous news.

If you contract coronavirus before you travel or while you’re traveling and have a standard policy that includes coverage for medical treatment and medical evacuation, your care probably will be covered. The “probably” is due to the fact that many insurers set a deadline – a date before which you might be covered but after which you won’t be. That’s because Covid-19 is now a “foreseen circumstance” — people now know about it.

Trip cancellation can be more complicated. Many policies exclude losses caused by disease outbreaks. Cancelling a trip simply because you don’t want to risk infection likely won’t be covered by a standard policy. 

What if you get sick and need to cancel your trip? You might be covered, depending on the insurer and a long list of conditions. For example, an illness that would be covered often requires a medical professional to confirm that the policyholder was, in fact, too sick to travel.

A cancel for any reason (CFAR) policy can help you recoup part  of your expense, but they’re pricey: usually around 10 percent of the cost of your trip, compared with four to six percent for a standard policy.

Do these exclusions and uncertainties mean medical travel insurance is a waste of money?

Not at all.

As I’ve written before, there are many ways one can be injured, fall ill, or die abroad – and your regular medical coverage may not work the same way abroad as it does at home. Since we’re talking about infectious diseases, take a look at the recent snippet below from the CDC website for a glimpse at some areas of concern. The list is always changing.

With travel policies – as with all other forms of insurance – it’s important to understand what’s covered and what isn’t and talk with your agent to be sure you’re getting the coverage you need. You also should thoroughly research your destinations and planned activities for possible exclusions.

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