The Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) yesterday hosted a webinar showcasing technology companies whose products mitigate the impact of severe weather on homeowners, businesses and communities. This is the first in a series of Lightning Rounds – fast-paced pitch panels for insurance and non-insurance investors.
The webinar is part of the Resilience Accelerator initiative, a collaboration of Triple-I, ResilientH2O Partners and The Cannon.
During the Lightning Rounds, pre-vetted technology companies, equipment suppliers, integrated solution providers, and large-scale project development teams present their unique value propositions.
This Round’s focus was flood prevention. Shelly Klose, CEO of True Flood Risk described the company’s AI-driven risk management platform that provides individual property data, geolocation intelligence and risk scores related to flood risk in real-time without an on-site inspection. Tasha Nielsen Fuller, CEO of FloodFrame USA, presented a system which is installed underground around a structure, and automatically deploys in a flood, protecting the structure. Rahel Abraham, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of ClimaGuard, was inspired to invent a water-resistant wrapping for vehicles and other possessions when her own vehicle was flooded during Hurricane Harvey.
To view a recording of the webinar click on the video above.
Webinar overview
Part 1: A view from the C-Suite: Identifying the right technology and risk solutions
Brian Gaab, Strategy & Innovation, CSAA Insurance Group, a AAA Insurer
Susan Holliday, Senior Advisor, International Finance Corporation | The World Bank Group
Matthew T. Schneider, Co-CEO, Aon Risk Solutions, M&A and Transaction Solutions
Michel Leonard, PhD, CBE (Moderator), Senior Economist & Vice President, The Insurance Information Institute
Part 2: Use Cases: Bringing to market flood management solutions
Presenting Companies:
Shelly Klose, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, True Flood Risk
Lauded for their service and hailed as heroes, essential workers who become infected with the coronavirus on the job have no guarantee in most states that they’ll qualify for workers compensation to cover lost wages and medical care, Associated Press reports.
Fewer than one-third of the states have enacted policies that shift the burden of proof for coverage of job-related COVID-19 so workers like first responders and nurses don’t have to show they got sick by reporting for a risky assignment.
And for most employees going back to job sites as the economy reopens, there’s even less protection than for essential workers. In nearly all states, they have to prove they got the virus on the job to qualify for workers comp.
Workers comp is not health insurance, or an unemployment benefit. In exchange for coverage, workers give up the right to sue their employers for job-related harms. Employers pay premiums to support the system. Complex rules differ from state to state.
Dealing with job-related injuries is fairly straightforward, but diseases have always been trickier for workers’ comp, and COVID-19 seems to be in a class of its own.
“You don’t know per se where you inhaled that breath whereby you became infected,” said Bill Smith, president of the Workers’ Injury Law & Advocacy Group, a professional association of lawyers representing workers.
The economic uncertainty brought about by COVID-19 has impacted the U.S. insurance industry’s investment portfolios this year yet insurers cumulatively entered 2020 in a strong financial condition, according to a just-released Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) Economic Snapshot report.
“The good news is the industry is well positioned to provide the safety net we need,” said Dr. Steven Weisbart, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, Triple-I. “We recognize there’s been deterioration in investment income during the past few months, but the industry was financially strong before the pandemic hit. If a vaccine is discovered, most economists believe the economy will have little trouble bouncing back. Until then, it’s just going to be a longer process than we originally thought.”
The financial fortunes of the U.S.’s property/casualty (P/C) insurers are generally tied to the U.S.’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as auto, home, and business (e.g., construction, workers compensation (w/c)) activity are reflective of the economy’s overall health.
Weisbart says while a combination of government restrictions and personal fear is delaying economic recovery, the insurance industry has been able to provide some relief and flexibility for its private-passenger auto insurance policyholders. More than $14 billion in premium relief had been offered to the nation’s drivers in 2020 as of the end of May, a Triple-I analysis found, and insurers continue to monitor the claims experience of motorists.
The Triple-I report shows some additional positive news for insurers. For example, during the past four years the number of owner-occupied homes has risen following a decade during which there was no increase. This is significant for the P/C insurance industry because virtually every owner-occupied home has homeowners insurance while only about half of renters buy renters insurance.
Pandemic-related changes may also affect workers compensation insurance as some states consider changes to the way w/c claims are processed for front-line workers, such as those in health care and law enforcement. On the other hand, some economists suggest w/c claims may experience a decrease due to the number of people working from home.
The Economic Snapshot’s special topic section focuses on life insurance. Although this sector generated its largest pre-tax operating loss of any quarter in at least 18 years, deaths due to the COVID-19 virus weren’t responsible. Instead, the plunge in interest rates was so steep and is expected to last so long that the industry booked an unprecedented increase in aggregate reserves. Reserves rose to $103.5 billion—a $57 billion increase since the third quarter of 2019.
A copy of the 2Q 2020 P/C Industry Economic Snapshot is available to Triple-I members by logging into the members-only portal at www.iii.org. Please contact members@iii.org for log in instructions, or information about membership.
Sophisticated computer modeling has led to great advances in forecasting weather-related disasters and their potential human toll and economic impact. The predictive power of these models has given insurers comfort writing coverage for risks – like flood – that were once considered untouchable and enabled them to develop innovative products.
It can be tempting to think of hurricane forecasting and modeling as being all about high-resolution images, big data, and elaborate algorithms. While these technologies are critical to developing and implementing effective models, they depend heavily on local knowledge and “boots on the ground.”
“After an event, we quickly send engineers to survey structural damage and look for linkages to the storm’s characteristics,” said Jeff Waters, senior product manager for risk modeler RMS. “Information gathered by our people on the ground is incorporated into our reconstruction of the event to help us identify drivers of the damage and inform our models.”
Waters recounted how, in the wake of Hurricane Maria in 2017, an RMS team arrived in Puerto Rico on October 3 – 13 days after landfall – to validate a modeled loss estimate. During the week the team spent on the island, they found that damage to insured buildings was less than expected for a storm of Maria’s magnitude. They also observed that most insured buildings featured bunker-style reinforced-concrete construction and flat concrete roofs.
“These buildings performed very well,” Waters said. “Reinforced concrete prevents significant structural damage, and, with less drywall and tiled flooring, interior damage from water intrusion is limited. Wood and light-metal structures – which tend to be in older neighborhoods where fewer properties are insured – fared far worse.”
Such ground-level information not only helped validate RMS’s loss estimate – it also contributes to the model’s continuous improvement. You can read a more detailed account on the RMS blog.
Recent research illustrates how advances in geospatial technologies allow qualitative local knowledge to be incorporated into mathematical models to evaluate potential outcomes of restoration and protection projects and support plans for mitigation and recovery. Local knowledge mapping is one such approach to marrying modern technology and the advanced analysis it facilitates to the experiences of the individuals, communities, and businesses most affected by natural disasters.
Hurricanes and storm-related flooding are responsible for the bulk of damage from disasters in the United States, accounting for annual economic losses of about $54 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
These losses have been on the rise, due, in large part, to increased coastal development. More, bigger homes, more valuables inside them, more cars and infrastructure – these all can contribute to bigger losses. The CBO estimates that a combination of private insurance for wind damage, federal flood insurance, and federal disaster assistance would cover about 50 percent of losses to the residential sector and 40 percent of commercial sector losses.
Recent research illustrates the benefits provided by mangroves, barrier islands, and coral reefs – natural features that frequently fall victim to development – in terms of limiting storm damage. In many places, mangroves are the first line of defense, their aerial roots helping to reduce erosion and dissipate storm surge. A healthy coral reef can reduce up to 97 percent of a wave’s energy before it hits the shore. Reefs — especially those that have been weakened by pollution, disease, overfishing, and ocean acidification — can be damaged by severe storms, reducing the protection they offer for coastal communities.
In Florida, a recent study found, mangroves alone prevented $1.5 billion in direct flood damages and protected over half a million people during Hurricane Irma in 2017, reducing damages by nearly 25% in counties with mangroves. Another study found that mangroves actively prevent more than $65 billion in property damage and protect over 15 million people every year worldwide.
A separate study quantified the global flood-prevention benefits of coral reefs at $4.3 billion.
Such estimates invite debate, but even if these endangered systems provided a fraction of the loss prevention estimated, wouldn’t you think coastal communities and the insurance industry would be investing in protecting them?
Well, they’re beginning to.
The Mexican state of Quintana Roo has partnered with hotel owners, the Nature Conservancy, and the National Parks Commission to pilot a conservation strategy that involves coral reef insurance. The insurance component – a one-year parametric policy – pays out if wind speeds in excess of 100 knots hit a predefined area. Unlike traditional insurance, which pays for damage if it occurs, parametric insurance pays claims when specific conditions are met – regardless of whether damage is incurred. Without the need for claims adjustment, policyholders quickly get their benefit and can begin their recovery. In the case of the coral reef coverage, the swift payout will allow for quick damage assessments, debris removal, and initial repairs to be carried out.
Similar approaches could be applied to protecting mangroves, commercial fish stocks that can be harmed by overfishing or habitat loss, or other intrinsically valuable assets that are hard to insure with traditional approaches.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is still projected to be “well above average,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar, Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team issued an updated forecast on July 7. They project the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will have 20 named storms (up from 19 in the previous forecast),nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
The 20 named storms include the storms that have already formed. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The active season is driven in part by low odds of El Niño conditions in the summer/fall and well above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. The warm waters fuel tropical cyclones.
Please click on the links below for Triple-I’s hurricane preparedness guides:
By Dr. Steven Weisbart, Chief Economist, Insurance Information Institute
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes extensive data on petroleum production, refining and supplies to users, with some data provided on a weekly basis. Gasoline supplied to retailers is not quite the same as gasoline consumed but it is close. And gasoline consumed is not exactly the same as miles driven but it is close. Consequently these data can indicate how much people are driving, sooner than we get data on the frequency and severity of collisions. Still, one benefit of tracking these data is that they are published in a timely way.
As a baseline, consider gasoline supplied in the first 12 weeks of 2020, compared to the comparable weeks in 2019 (Figure 1). Although this comparison can be affected by changes in prices from year to year as well as changes in weather (and possibly other differences between the two periods), we can assume that these differences are small and do not obscure longer-term trends.
The graph shows some week-to-week variation, but basically the same—or maybe a little less—gas supplied in 2020 vs. 2019.
Then the pandemic—and the start of the recession caused by fighting it—happened. Driving was sharply curtailed, and auto insurers instituted programs for refunding premiums to reflect this change. Figure 2 adds to Figure 1 the percentage change in year-over-year supplies of gas for the rest of March and all of April 2020.
But in May some states began relaxing various restrictions, and driving began to return to near-pre-pandemic/recession levels, as Figure 3 shows.
At this point there is no way to know what caused this spike in gas usage, but some speculate that any or all of the following could be responsible:
• States are moving to more permissive stages of lockdown, resulting in more travel, especially to beaches and other outdoor activities
• People who once took public transportation are now choosing to drive, thereby lessening exposure to the virus that might result from travel on mass transit
• Warmer weather months are traditionally a time for more driving
• The price of gas continues to be unusually low, making driving less burdensome than the prior year.
“Social inflation” refers to rising litigation costs and their impact on insurers’ claim payouts, loss ratios, and, ultimately, how much policyholders pay for coverage. While there’s no universally agreed-upon definition, frequently mentioned aspects of social inflation are growing awards from sympathetic juries and a trend called “litigation funding”, in which investors pay plaintiffs to sue large companies – often insurers – in return for a share in the settlement.
If the idea of social inflation was controversial before the start of the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic lockdown, with some calling it a hoax, the subject must now be looked at through the additional lens of COVID-19’s long-term impact on liability questions, plaintiff expectations, and juror attitudes.
A.M. Best said early in the crisis that COVID-19 could produce a big increase in social inflation. The reason: expectations that businesses would sue their insurers in an attempt to access their business interruption coverage for losses relating to the coronavirus pandemic. Such lawsuits have been and continue to be brought.
Hiscox warns about rising Florida risk
Despite reports of rate increases across the property catastrophe reinsurance sector at the mid-year renewals, a Hiscox executive has warned that these improvements could be offset by rising costs of risk in Florida, Reinsurance News reported
After consecutive heavy loss years, some fairly significant loss creep and low interest rates, coupled with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, reinsurance rates reportedly trended in a positive manner at the mid-year renewals, with rises of 20% – 30%, or more in some instances. While reinsurers will welcome rate increases after a prolonged soft market and subsequent pressured returns, the improvements might not be sufficient to account for the increased risk in the region’s market, according to Ross Nottingham, Chair of North America at Hiscox Re and ILS, a division of global insurer and reinsurer Hiscox.
“Why? Because these increases haven’t yet covered our own view of the increased risk in the Florida market, which suggests that the amount of risk going into these programmes is a lot higher than thought last year,” Nottingham said. “That means you might get a 30 percent increase on the programme, but if you’ve measured the risk to the layer and established that it’s potentially worth 40 percent more in premium than it was last year, the margin has in fact decreased.”
Nottingham said the increases being seen in the Florida market in 2020, while positive, are barely covering the additional risk that is out there as evidenced by the substantial levels of adverse loss development on prior year events.
“And what’s continuing to drive loss creep? The villain of the piece is social inflation – a factor not yet captured in the vendor cat models the industry benchmarks for measuring hurricane risk.”
Nottingham says that in Florida social inflation comes from a variety of sources, ranging from assignment of benefits (AOB) litigation to loss adjustment inflation.
AOB abuse has been mitigated somewhat by recent reform legislation. But Nottingham says this reform is expected to have a limited impact on catastrophic claims being litigated and related inflation of a claim once lawyers start to get involved through other avenues.
“Despite insurers’ best efforts to change their original policy forms or to de-risk in the worst performing areas, it is expected that AOB or equivalent abuse will continue after the next big loss event,” says Nottingham. “Two years ago, the market thought the physical attributes of Irma were akin to a one in 10-year event. The loss now – with the advent of social inflation-fueled loss creep – looks more like the cost of a one in 20-year event, but there is no new science to show the expected vulnerability or hazard has changed.”
Another important element impacting reinsurance rates this year is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which, Nottingham says hasn’t been factored into pricing for the months ahead. Forecasters predict an above-average level of hurricane activity in the Atlantic in 2020, which, coupled with the unprecedented impacts of the virus outbreak, presents unique challenges for the industry.
How Court Lockdowns May Turn Social Inflation Tide
COVID-19 may affect some aspects of social inflation in a different manner, Claims Journal reports.
Speaking at a recent Advisen event – Social Inflation: Truth or Fiction – defense attorney Ellen Greiper reported receiving more than the usual number of phone calls from plaintiffs’ attorneys.
“I have had a flurry of phone calls from plaintiffs who are now willing to take that [settlement] amount I had offered before,” said Greiper, a partner with Lewis Brisbois, Brisgaard & Smith. With courts having been closed as part of the general pandemic lockdown and now slowly reopening, “Those plaintiffs are realizing that they are not going to get a trial for at least two years, no matter what status their case may be and whether it’s discovery or past that. So now they are coming out of the woodwork.”
She added that the plaintiffs are “starting to realize that when we all come back and the jurors don’t have jobs or they’ve been furloughed, they’re not getting $10 million on a cervical fusion. They may realize that’s a ridiculous amount of money.”
By Dr. Steven Weisbart, Chief Economist, Insurance Information Institute
Dr. Steven Weisbart
The employment report for June 2020 just released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, has some interesting numbers. I’m not referring to the national employment numbers but to the May employment numbers for the insurance industry.
You might remember that the May numbers for the national economy were dreadful. The unemployment percentage was 13.3 percent. The comparable numbers for subsets like the property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry aren’t released until a month later, but those numbers for these subsectors became available today. Note that the May numbers are preliminary and are often revised, though slightly, in subsequent months.
In May, preliminary P/C insurance carrier employment shed the 2,700 jobs that had been gained in April. P/C carrier employment has been effectively flat at 559,000 since February 2020—remarkable in relation to most other sectors of the economy.
Life/annuity carriers gained 300 jobs in May, for total employment of 350,000—essentially flat since January 2019 (with some few large month-to-month changes that net to roughly zero).
Surprisingly, health (mainly medical expense) carriers lost 3,200 jobs in May, following a loss of 2,500 (revised upward) jobs in April. This might be explained by the cessation of services like elective surgery and fewer visits to emergency departments (a recent CDC report showed a drop of roughly 25 percent in visits for heart attacks and strokes in April and May).
Insurance brokerage and agencies gained 1,500 jobs in May after having lost 10,500 jobs (revised) in April. I suspect that the May agent/brokerage numbers will be revised upward next month, in part due to participation in the Paycheck Protection Program.
It looks like the insurance industry is doing its part to keep the economy running.
Today marks one year when my car got flooded, I got stranded, and I learned a huge lesson: I call it my floodiversary.
We keep a small saltwater tank, and to keep the tank healthy, it needs regular water changes. Before the Fourth of July weekend I decided to swing by the local fish store and pick up 5 gallons of water to replenish the tank. That way I could get the chores out of the way in order to relax and enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend.
I got to the store in time and picked up a five-gallon industrial container. I put it in the back, put the hatch down and started the 30-minute trip home. About halfway there, I made a turn. That’s when the trouble started. The car began to lose power. Fortunately I was able to pull over. I tried to start the car. Nothing. A new car…why? Then it occurred to me: the %$@*& water. I went to the back, opened the hatch and sure enough, my trunk had about an inch of water gently sloshing back and forth. I started to try and scoop the water out with the bucket, but it was impossible.
I went back to the car, got in and left the door open and started to assess my options. It was sweltering–about 90 degrees; I was in the middle of nowhere and had spotty cell service. I let my family know where I was and tried to connect to my car’s emergency system. After many tries and fails, and even speaking to an engineer, it was clear the car was not going to start up again. So I waited for the tow truck and my husband, as I swatted mosquitoes and thought about cold drinks and air-conditioning.
The tow truck arrived from the dealership, but the guy was in a hurry. He refused to let me ride back with him, but it was a war of wills. I was determined not to be left on the side of the road, so I stalled by asking him questions until my husband pulled up. We both watched as the car was raised on the flatbed, with water streaming out the back. It was a holiday weekend, so the car would have to sit on the lot in the heat all weekend. My husband had brought a stack of towels, so we did what we could. We looked at each other. No more water in the car.
On the ride back home I called my insurer. They couldn’t do much over the weekend but would be back in touch after the holiday. The next week I got the call. After the deductible was met, the damage was all covered—about $4,500 all in. My insurance also covered the cost of a rental car. The adjuster assured me the car would be fine; it turns out the water had shorted out a panel located in the trunk of the car that connected to its “brain.” But after the ordeal, it was a relief to know the car would be ok and ready to drive after a few days. The adjustor had been pleasant and helpful. “I got to tell you,” he said, “I’ve seen flooding before. But I’ve never seen a car flooded from the inside.”
