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IRC Releases StateAuto InsuranceAffordability Rankings

Louisiana, Florida, and Michigan are the three least affordable states for personal auto insurance, according to a new report by the Insurance Research Council (IRC). The three most affordable states, IRC finds, are Hawaii, New Hampshire, and North Dakota.

The state-by-state affordability rankings by IRC – like Triple-I, an affiliate of The Institutes – are based on insurance expenditures as a share of median household income. The report draws on data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), which are only available up to 2019 and, therefore, don’t reflect more recent circumstances, such as the pandemic and the inflationary impact of supply-chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine.

Before these events, auto insurance nationwide had been becoming more affordable since the 1990s, when premiums as a percentage of median household income averaged 1.9 percent.  By the 2010s, it had decreased to 1.6 percent, and, in 2019, that figure stood at 1.56 percent.

During this 30-year period, median household income grew 2.9 percent annually.

Affordability varies dramatically by state, with Hawaii coming in as the most affordable, with expenditures standing at 0.95 percent of income. The least affordable state is Louisiana, with the average expenditure-to-income ratio more than three times higher, at 3.01 percent.

The report notes that attempts to reduce these costs must focus on key cost drivers, including accident frequency, repair costs, injury claim relative frequency, injury claim severity, medical utilization, attorney involvement, claim abuse, uninsured motorists, and litigation climate.

Looking ahead

Pandemic and post-pandemic riskiness of U.S. highways could also impact future affordability trends.  After decades of decline, U.S. traffic deaths have increased in the past several years due to more speeding, driving under the influence, and not wearing seat belts during the pandemic. In 2021, U.S. traffic fatalities reached a 16-year high, with nearly 43,000 deaths. 

“When everyday life came to a halt in March 2020, risky behaviors skyrocketed and traffic fatalities spiked,” said National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) administrator Steven Cliff.  “We’d hoped these trends were limited to 2020, but, sadly, they aren’t.”

In 2022, NHTSA estimates, 9,560 people died in motor vehicle crashes between January and March, up 7 percent from the same period in 2021, making it the deadliest first quarter since 2002. 

The IRC report highlights the role of attorney involvement in driving up insurer expenses – and, ultimately, policyholder premiums – in states where auto coverage is least affordable. As attorney involvement tends to be more prevalent in bodily injury claims cases, the NHTSA numbers are important for understanding anticipated upward pressure on premium rates.

All these factors contribute to increased frequency and severity of claims and, ultimately, higher premiums as insurers seek to maintain required levels of surplus to ensure their ability to keep their promises to policyholders. 

Piracy Incidents Decline, But Horizon Isn’t Clear

Maritime piracy in the first half of 2022 is at its lowest level since 1994, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) says, with 58 incidents, down from 68 for the same period last year. Nevertheless, the organization cautions against complacency.

For the full year 2020, IMB listed 195 actual and attempted attacks, up from 162 in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic may have played a role in that rise in pirate activity – as it is tied to underlying social, political, and economic problems – and 2022 may represent the start of a return of a downward trend.

Source: International Chamber of Commerce/International Maritime Bureau (IMB)

Many people outside the maritime and insurance industries don’t realize that piracy remains a costly peril in the 21st century. Global insurer Zurich estimates the annual cost of piracy to the global economy at $12 billion a year.  In its 2022 Safety and Shipping Review, global insurer Allianz reports that piracy comes behind machinery damage or failure, collision, and contact, in terms of number of loss-causing incidents globally – and that total losses have fallen 57 percent over the past decade.

However, the shipping industry is vulnerable to disruptions and, as Allianz points out, has been affected on multiple fronts by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: from loss of life and vessels in the Black Sea and disrupted trade to challenges to day-to-day operations that affect crews, cost and availability of fuel, and the growing for cyber risk.

“To date, the biggest impact has been on vessels operating in the Black Sea and/or trading with Russia,” Allianz says. “At the start of the conflict, approximately 2,000 seafarers were stranded aboard vessels in Ukranian ports. Trapped crews faced the constant threat of attacks, with little access to food or medical supplies, and a number have been killed.”

According to a recent industry survey, Allianz says, 44 percent of maritime professionals reported that their organization has been the subject of a cyber-attack in the last three years. Accumulations of cargo exposures at mega ports have been rising – and, with ports increasingly reliant on technology, an outage or cyber-attack could effectively close a port.

In February 2022, India’s busiest container port was hit by a ransomware attack, following incidents at U.S. and South African ports in recent years.

A third of organizations surveyed by Allianz said they don’t conduct regular cyber security training or have a cyber-response plan.

Cellphone Bans Cut Crashes; TelematicsCan Help ReduceDistracted Driving

Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

State prohibitions on cellphone use while driving correlate with reduced crash rates, according to recent research by the Insurance Institute for High Safety (IIHS). However, overall results were mixed among the states studied, with different legal language, degrees of enforcement, and penalty severity, providing possible explanations for the differing outcomes.

The study observed crash rate changes in California, Oregon, and Washington after legislation to prevent cellphone calls and texting while driving was enacted in 2017, with the research looking at overall numbers from 2015 to 2019. These numbers were compared to control states Idaho and Colorado.

Notably, the study found:

  • A 7.6 percent reduction in the rate of monthly rear-end crashes of all severities relative to the rates in the control states;
  • Law changes in Oregon and Washington were associated with significant reductions of 8.8 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively;
  • California did not experience changes in rear-end crash rates of all severities or with injuries associated with the strengthened law.

Still, state governments face several hurdles in their efforts to prevent crashes caused by cellphone use.

“Technology is moving much faster than the laws,” said Ian Reagan, a senior research scientist at IIHS. “Our findings suggest that other states could benefit from adopting broader laws against cellphone use while driving, but more research is needed to determine the combination of wording and penalties that is most effective.”

Distracted driving remains a major issue

Distracted driving remains a significant problem on roads nationwide. Indeed, distracted driving increased more than 30 percent from February 2020 to February 2022, due largely to changes in driving patterns spurred by the coronavirus pandemic, according to research by telematics service provider Cambridge Mobile Telematics.

The Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA) reported that more than 3,100 people died in distraction-related accidents in 2020, with an estimated 400,000 people injured each year in such crashes. The true numbers, according to the study, are likely higher due to underreporting. The report also found that cell dial, cell text, and cell-browse were among the most prevalent and highest-risk behaviors.

Telematics can help

Telematics, which uses mobile technology to track driver behavior and provide financial incentives to drive less and often and more carefully, can help reduce dangerous driving. The more consumers positively react to the incentive, the less they pay for their insurance.

Research from the Insurance Research Council – like Triple-I, a nonprofit affiliate of The Institutes, focused on this exact issue, studying public perception and use of telematics. The study found that 45 percent of drivers surveyed said they made significant safety-related changes in the way they drove after participating in a telematics program. Another 35 percent said they made small changes in the way they drive.

During the pandemic, insurance consumers’ comfort with the idea of letting their driving be monitored in exchange for a better premium appeared to improve. In May 2019, mobility data and analytics firm Arity surveyed 875 licensed drivers over the age of 18 to find out how comfortable they would be having their premiums adjusted based on telematics variables. Between 30 and 40 percent said they would be either very or extremely comfortable sharing this data. In May 2020, they ran the survey again with more than 1,000 licensed drivers.

“This time,” Arity said, “about 50 percent of drivers were comfortable with having their insurance priced based on the number of miles they drive, where they drive, and what time of day they drive, as well as distracted driving and speeding.”

2022 P&C Underwriting Profitability Seen Worsening as Inflation, Hard Market Persist

The property & casualty insurance industry’s combined ratio – an indicator of underwriting profitability – is forecast at 100.7 for 2022, up 1.2 points from 2021, according to actuaries at Triple-I and Milliman, a risk-management, benefits, and technology firm. They presented their findings at a Triple-I members-only virtual webinar.

Combined ratio represents the difference between claims and expenses paid and premiums collected by insurers. A combined ratio below 100 represents an underwriting profit, and a ratio above 100 represents a loss. The industry in 2021 was barely profitable, with a combined ratio of 99.5.

Losses have been driven by significant deterioration in the personal auto line. Dale Porfilio, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, said the 2022 net combined ratio for personal auto is forecast to be 105.2 – 3.8 points higher than 2021, driven primarily by significant deterioration in auto physical damage coverages.

Across most product lines, inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and geopolitical risk are expected to keep pushing insured losses and premium rates higher.

“We forecast 2022 P&C premium growth of 8.5 percent,” Porfilio said. “This is lower than the 9.2 percent growth in 2021, but still strong due to the hard market.”

Dr. Michel Léonard, Triple-I chief economist and data scientist, discussed key macroeconomic trends affecting the property/casualty industry results. He noted that insurance growth continues to be constrained by economic fundamentals, with replacement-cost increases well above pre-COVID levels and sub-par underlying growth.

Jason B. Kurtz, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, said another year of underwriting losses is likely for the commercial multi-peril line.

“More rate increases are needed to offset economic and social inflation loss pressures,” Kurtz said. “Social inflation” refers to the impact of litigation costs on insurers’ claim payouts, loss ratios, and, ultimately, how much policyholders pay for coverage.

Kurtz said the workers’ compensation line’s multi-year run of underwriting profits is expected to continue, although margins are likely to shrink further through 2024.

Dave Moore, president of Moore Actuarial Consulting, said the 2022 combined ratio for commercial auto is forecast to be 101.4 percent.

“We are forecasting underwriting losses for 2022 through 2024 due to prior-year development and the impact of inflation – both social inflation and economic inflation,” Moore said.

Hurricanes Drive Louisiana Insured Losses, Insurer Insolvencies

Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Severe hurricane damage in recent years has led to major losses by writers of Louisiana homeowners’ insurance and to the insolvency of eight insurers.

Louisiana homeowners’ insurers had a combined ratio of 461.9 in 2021. Combined ratio represents the difference between claims and expenses paid and premiums collected by insurers. A combined ratio below 100 represents an underwriting profit, and a ratio above 100 represents a loss.

With earned premium of nearly $2 billion, the 461.9 combined ratio means the industry experienced a $7.2 billion underwriting loss in 2021. As Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio puts it, “It would take 24 years of achieving a combined ratio of 85 for homeowners’ insurance writers in Louisiana to return to positive profitability.”

In 2020, Hurricanes Delta, Laura, and Zeta all caused major damage, resulting in a large number of insurance claims. Through September 30, 2021, there were 323,727 insurance claims of all types for these storms. Insurers paid or reserved $9.1 billion for Laura alone. Additionally, Hurricane Ida, which occurred in 2021, generated 460,709 insurance claims of all types through June 30, 2022, with insurers having paid or reserved $13.1 billion for that storm.

Eight Louisiana homeowner insurers already have become insolvent, and at least 12 companies have submitted withdrawal notices to Louisiana’s Department of Insurance, a preliminary measure needed to leave the state. This has forced tens of thousands of homeowners to depend on the state’s insurer of last resort, Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corp.

The market is struggling so much that Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon has called the current circumstances a “crisis.”

Next steps

In response, the Louisiana Insurance Guaranty Association (LIGA) has begun to restructure its management of claims for policyholders of insolvent insurers using property estimating technology from Verisk, a global data analytics provider.

“Seamless coordination with independent adjusting firms has become critical as we work to help hurricane victims throughout Louisiana rebuild their homes and return to normal,” said John Wells, executive director of LIGA.

More work to be done

2020 Triple-I Consumer poll found that 27 percent of homeowners said they had flood insurance, which indicates a record high. However, this figure is greater than National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) estimates. As the Triple-I notes, homeowners may not understand what flood coverage is and how it works — specifically, that flood damage is not covered under standard homeowners’ and renters’ insurance policies. Flood coverage is available as a separate policy from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and from many private insurers

As storms continue to wreak major damage across vulnerable areas, homeowners and flood insurance are more important than ever.  But risk transfer alone is not enough.  

“Risk transfer is just one tool in the resilience toolkit,” says Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “Our understanding of loss trends and expertise in assessing and quantifying risk must be joined at the hip to technology, public policy, finance, and science. We need to partner with communities and businesses at every level to promote a broad resilience mindset focused on pre-emptive mitigation and rapid recovery.”

Pot Legalization Link To Car Crashes Variesby State, Study Finds

Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Recreational marijuana use is associated with automobile crash trends, according to a paper published in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs. However, the study also noted that retail marijuana sales aren’t solely responsible for the general rise in accidents.

Legalization of recreational marijuana use was correlated to a 6.5 percent growth in the rate of crashes involving injuries and a 2.3 percent rise in those involving fatalities. With legalization and retail sales, the study found that the total impact was a 5.8 percent rise in injury crash rates and a 4.1 percent increase in fatal crash rates.

But these results were inconsistent across states, with the effects on injury crash rates varying from a 7 percent decrease to an 18 percent rise and fatal crash rates ranging from a 4 percent increase to a 10 percent decline. Colorado experienced the biggest rise in injury crash rates after legalization and retail sales, coming in at 17.8 percent. Nevada experienced the largest decline in fatal crashes, at 9.8 percent.

“Legalization removes the stigma of marijuana use, while the onset of retail sales merely increases access,” said lead researcher Charles M. Farmer of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. “But access to marijuana isn’t difficult, even in places without retail sales. Users who previously avoided driving high may feel that it’s okay after legalization.”

Farmer added, “Studies looking for a direct causal link between marijuana use and crash risk have been inconclusive.” Unlike with alcohol, no objective measure yet exists for how impaired a marijuana user has become.

As Triple-I notes, most studies find that marijuana use results in impaired coordination, memory, associative learning, attention, cognitive flexibility, and reaction time. Although it is clear from this research that driving ability is diminished, the extent of impairment continues to be studied.

Younger drivers are at higher risk of traffic accidents than older drivers, with younger male drivers at high risk. Early evidence indicates that younger male drivers are most likely to drive under the influence of marijuana.

Another study, in the journal Drug and Alcohol Dependence, suggests chronic, heavy use of recreational marijuana impairs driving skills, even when the driver is not high, with those who started regularly using marijuana before 16 years old showing the worst results.

These results demonstrate that the effects of marijuana vary widely across demographic groups, making it all the more important for everyone to be cautious when using the drug.

As Building Costs Grow, Consider Your Homeowners’ Coverage

By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I (07/14/2022)

Home construction and maintenance costs are on the rise, and homeowners should be factoring these trends into their insurance decisions – especially as risks related to weather and climate intensify.

Rising interest rates and persistent disruptions in the building-materials supply chain can affect repair and replacement costs for purposes of homeowners’ insurance. However, a recent American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) survey found that approximately two-thirds of insured homeowners could be without key additional coverages – including automatic inflation guard, extended replacement cost, and building code/ordinance coverage – that could more effectively protect their investment.

“Inflation, recent supply chain issues, and increased demand for skilled labor and construction materials following unprecedented natural disasters in the last two years have contributed to a significant increase in the costs to rebuild homes and businesses,” said Karen Collins, assistant vice president of personal lines at APCIA. “It is imperative that homeowners review and, if needed, update their insurance prior to hurricane season to keep pace with rising costs.”

Most homeowners’ policies today cover replacement cost for structural damage, but it’s wise to check your policy – especially if you have an older home. A replacement cost policy will pay for the repair or replacement of damaged property with materials of similar kind and quality.

The limits of your policy typically appear on the Declarations Page under Section I, Coverages, A. Dwelling. Your insurer will pay up to this amount to rebuild your home. If the limits of your homeowners’ policy haven’t changed since you bought your home, you may be underinsured – even if you haven’t made any upgrades.

Many insurance policies include an “inflation guard” clause that automatically adjusts the limit to reflect current construction costs in your area when policies are renewed. If your policy doesn’t include this clause, see if you can purchase it as an endorsement.

Adding to the threat and potential costs is the steady growth in natural catastrophe losses in recent decades. This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “well above average,” and wildfires are starting earlier, inflicting greater losses, occurring in more states, and taking more time to suppress.

Triple-I offers tips on how to properly insure your home for a disaster— which is all the more important given current market conditions, and the escalating threat of catastrophe.

Delaware Legislature Adjourns Without Action on Banning Genderas Auto Insurance Factor

Delaware’s state Legislature adjourned for the year without the House taking action on Senate Bill (SB) 231, which called for prohibiting the use of gender as a rating factor in personal automobile insurance policies.

The measure was based on research conducted with the Consumer Federation of America that contended many insured Delaware women are charged more than men, even when all other factors are the same. If signed into law, it would have required Delaware’s auto insurers to revisit how they price their personal automobile insurance policies for all drivers. Six states – California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania – already have similar laws in place.

“The Delaware state Legislature and the Department of Insurance have the right and responsibility to govern and regulate how insurance companies conduct business within the State of Delaware,” Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio wrote in response to SB 231, which was approved by the Delaware Senate in April 2022. However, in his letter to Delaware Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro, he raised several concerns with the underlying research, including:

Website Quotes vs. Issued Policies. While the Internet and electronic processing of quotes have dramatically improved the speed and accuracy of quotes, Porfilio wrote, “Many details can change for the portion of quotes which ultimately become issued policies, causing quotes to not be 100 percent accurate for issued premiums.”

Single Hypothetical Insured vs. Range of Actual Insureds. The report studied hypothetical 35-year-old drivers, then drew a conclusion about the full breadth of female and male drivers in the state of Delaware.

Aggregation across Zip Codes. Pricing methodologies are refined to very specific territorial definitions, which vary by insurer, and the report does not describe how the sample was aggregated across Zip Codes.

Porfilio explained that a consequence of enacting S.B. 231 would be a redistribution of who pays how much premium, with most of the premium increases paid by female policyholders (notably at younger ages), and a majority of the premium decreases received by male policyholders.

Critics of U.S. auto insurer pricing practices have expressed concerns that certain rating factors discriminate against certain groups. Triple-I has explained in multiple contexts how U.S. auto insurers use a wide variety of rating factors to accurately price policies.  These factors must conform to the laws and regulations of the state in which the auto insurance policies are sold,  and eliminating any one could force less-risky policyholders to overpay and allow those with greater risk to pay less than they should.

Learn more about auto insurance pricing

Triple-I: Rating-Factor Variety Drives Accuracy of Auto Insurance Pricing

Why Personal Auto Insurance Rates Are Likely to Keep Rising

IRC Releases State-by-State Auto Insurance Affordability Rankings

Complex Risks in a Complicated World:Are Federal Government “Backstops” The Answer?

Two U.S. agencies have agreed to explore the potential need for a federal mechanism – analogous to the one put into place for terrorism insurance after the 9/11 attacks – to address the growing cybersecurity threat to critical infrastructure. The perceived need to do so speaks to the growing complexity and interrelatedness of this and other risks facing governments, businesses, and communities today.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO), in a recently published report, recommended that Treasury’s Federal Insurance Office (FIO) and Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) take this action.  It acknowledges that FIO and CISA have “taken steps to understand the financial implications of growing cybersecurity risks” – but those actions have not included the possible need for a federal insurance mechanism.

“Cyber insurance and the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program (TRIP)—the government backstop for losses from terrorism—are both limited in their ability to cover potentially catastrophic losses from systemic cyberattacks,” the GAO report says. “Cyber insurance can offset costs from some of the most common cyber risks, such as data breaches and ransomware. However, private insurers have been taking steps to limit their potential losses from systemic cyber events.”

Insurers are excluding coverage for losses from cyber warfare and infrastructure outages, the report notes, and cyberattacks may not meet TRIP’s criteria to be certified as terrorism.

As we’ve previously reported, some in the national security world have compared U.S. cybersecurity preparedness today to its readiness for terrorist acts prior to the 9/11. Before Sept. 11, 2001, terrorism coverage was included in most commercial property policies as a “silent” peril – not specifically excluded and, therefore, covered. Afterward, insurers began excluding terrorist acts from policies, and the U.S. government established the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) to stabilize the market.  TRIA created TRIP as a temporary system of shared public and private compensation for certain insured losses resulting from a certified act of terrorism.

Treasury administers the program, which has to be periodically reauthorized. TRIP has been renewed four times – in 2005, 2007, 2015, and 2019 – and the backstop has never yet been triggered.

The GAO recommendation that a similar solution be considered for cyber risk highlights the potential insufficiency of traditional risk-transfer products to address increasingly complex and costly threats. Alongside terrorism and cyber, we’ve experienced – and continue to experience – the myriad perils of pandemic, with its assorted impacts on the global supply chain, driving behavior, business interruption and remote work practices, and the economy. Even if those challenges moderate, we will continue to face what is perhaps the most entangled set of risks on the planet: those associated with climate and extreme weather.

One only has to look as far as Florida, where the insurance market is on the brink of failure as writers of homeowners coverage begin to go into receivership and global reinsurers reassess their appetite for providing capacity in that hurricane-prone, fraud- and litigation-plagued state. Or, one could follow the wildfire activity in recent years; or flood loss trends, increasingly creating problems inland, where flood insurance purchase rates tend to be lower than in coastal areas; or insured losses due to severe convective storms, which have been rising in parallel with losses from hurricanes.

Fortunately, many states are taking steps – often with partners, including the insurance industry – to anticipate and mitigate such risks. Much is being done, but much work remains to change behaviors, best practices, and public policies in ways that will reduce risks and improve availability and affordability of coverage.

IRC Study: Public Perceives Impact of Litigationon Auto Insurance Claims

Most Americans believe attorney advertising increases the number of liability insurance claims and lawsuits, according to recent research from the Insurance Research Council (IRC). The survey also indicated that consumers see a connection between attorney advertising and insurance costs.

The IRC – like Triple-I, an affiliate of The Institutes – also found that consumer awareness of third-party litigation funding has increased, though many Americans remain uncertain what to think of the practice. Litigation funding – in which third-party investors assume all or part of the cost of a lawsuit in exchange for a percentage of the settlement – is often cited as contributing to “social inflation.” Social inflation refers to the impact of rising litigation costs on insurers’ claim payouts, loss ratios, and, ultimately, how much policyholders pay for coverage.

“The public sees a connection between attorney ads and the cost of insurance,” said IRC President and Triple-I CEO Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA. “Two-thirds of respondents who had an opinion said advertising by attorneys increases the number of liability claims and lawsuits. Fifty-nine percent said such advertising increases the cost of insurance.”

The survey also found 81 percent of Americans had seen an attorney advertisement within the past year. Thirty-nine percent had never heard of the term “litigation funding.”

The IRC study, Public Attitudes on Litigation Trends and the Role of Attorneys in Auto Insurance Claims, consisted of an online survey with over 1,500 respondents. It also uncovered that:

  • Consumers generally expect insurers to settle auto insurance claims fairly and quickly, but one in four say they would hire an attorney before even contacting an insurer;
  • The views of many consumers about the benefits of hiring attorneys to help with insurance claims conflict with evidence from claims-based research;
  • Most Americans believe there are too many personal injury lawsuits today;
  • Significant generational differences exist on these topics, with younger respondents being far more likely than older respondents to favorably view attorney involvement and litigation; and
  • The public’s level of understanding suggests some educational opportunities for those seeking to address costs in the insurance system.

“This survey builds on many years of IRC work examining the role of attorneys in insurance claims and the resulting consequences,” Porfilio said. “Our longstanding series of closed auto injury claim studies has shown an ever-increasing rate of attorney involvement, even among no-fault claims.”

Porfilio noted that these studies consistently show that claimants who hired attorneys waited significantly longer to receive their settlements and – after medical expenses and legal fees – those settlements were smaller than for claimants who did not.

“Given the costs added to the system and the lack of evidence of clear benefit for the claimant, it is important to understand public attitudes about attorney involvement,” Porfilio said.

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