By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I
Updated industry data for the 2024 workers compensation market confirmed the line’s 11th straight year of underwriting gains, according to the recent National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) report 2025 in Sight, 2024 in Review. The report – a reevaluation of preliminary analysis presented at the NCCI Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) in May – also projected continued gains in 2025.
These results were highlighted at a members-only briefing from the Triple-I and Milliman.
Prior-year figures
While net written premium fell from 2023 by 3.2 percent, workers comp private carriers enjoyed a 2024 combined ratio of 86.1 percent – a 13.9 percent underwriting gain. Such gains, combined with the 2024 investment gain of 9.8 percent, resulted in an overall operating gain of 23.7 percent, marking the eighth consecutive operating gain exceeding 20 percent and the most profitable period over at least the last three decades, the report noted.
Contrary to lower AIS estimates, lost-time claim frequency declined by 6 percent and indemnity claim severity rose by 5 percent last year. The 2024 medical claims severity estimate remains unchanged, at a 6 percent increase from 2023.
Ongoing stability
Midyear results indicate 2025 will post another profitable year, with a net premium volume similar to that of 2024. Using National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) Quarterly Statement data, NCCI reported the following findings:
- Direct written premium decreased 1.9 percent through the first half of 2025, compared with the first half of 2024.
- While 2025 bureau loss costs are expected to decrease by 6.1 percent, payroll through the first half of 2025 increased by roughly 5 percent over the prior year.
- The private carrier direct loss ratio for the first half of 2025 is 50 percent – two points higher than the direct loss ratio during the same period of 2024.
- As loss ratios at year end tend to fall slightly lower than second quarter loss ratios, the year-end 2025 net combined ratio will likely range from 85 to 93 percent.
“If this holds, it will represent 12 consecutive years of combined ratios under 100 for private carriers,” said Donna Glenn, chief actuary at NCCI.
As emerging data is collected and evaluated throughout the ratemaking season, NCCI’s initial analysis will continue to evolve. Potential economic headwinds, including recession concerns and tariff and immigration policy uncertainties, add to the unknowns. Tariffs, for instance – especially on medical equipment and pharmaceuticals, which are already subject to rising medical inflation – could further propel the costs behind workplace injury claims, making proactive risk management more imperative.
Greater insight into these trends and the overall 2025 workers comp performance will be available at the NCCI’s next AIS in May 2026.
Learn More
NCCI AIS 2025: Key Insights on Workers Comp
Workers Comp Premium, Loss, Market Trends Support Its Ongoing Success