Glenn Hubbard, former chairman of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, projected 2 percent U.S. GDP growth for the next year – a bit more optimistic than the 1.8 percent consensus estimate of professional economic forecasters.

The U.S. economic recovery remains in record-setting territory, and though the pace of real GDP growth has slowed – from 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 to 2 percent in the second and 1.9 percent in the third – there are few signs the expansion is fading. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the current growth rate is consistent with the economy’s potential growth rate, which most economists estimate at between 1.75 percent and 2 percent.

“Expansions don’t die of old age,” Hubbard told attendees at Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum. “They die of some shock, some policy action that strangles them.”

Asked by Jon Hilsenrath, chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, whether President Trump’s 3 percent growth target was realistic, Hubbard said it could be achieved, “but it would require some really outsized assumptions.”

“You’d need 2 percent-plus productivity growth,” he said, adding that weak population growth and continued low labor force participation are greater obstacles to reaching such an optimistic target.

Despite technological advances that might be expected to drive productivity, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reports, “productivity growth has declined sharply” in recent decades. Low labor force participation is associated with lower GDP and tax revenues, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). It’s also associated with larger federal outlays, because people who aren’t in the labor force are more likely to enroll in federal benefit programs. Labor force participation has been weak since the end of the recession and, despite upticks in 2016 and 2017, the CBO expects it to remain so until 2027.

Slow and steady

“Barring anything unforeseen,” Hubbard said he doesn’t believe a downturn is imminent. He pointed to countries like Australia that have experienced decades-long slow, steady expansions.

“One of the reasons this expansion has gone on for so long,” Hubbard said, “is that it has not been as robust throughout as other expansions.”

He pointed to the “lower for longer” interest rate environment as a risk area for the insurance industry, noting that difficulty earning spread could lead to “pockets of excess risk taking.” While many have warned about this risk,  insurers have shown they can earn profits while maintaining reserve adequacy. As Triple-I recently reported, 2019’s third-quarter $48.1 billion net income after taxes for the property/casualty industry was the second highest since Q3 2007 and only slightly below the highest profit ($49.4 billion), in  Q3 2018.

2020 Elections: Don’t Be ‘Overly Conventional’

On the U.S. elections, Hubbard said “If you’re focused on the economy and economic variables, the President should have a very good chance of being re-elected.”

“I think, though, it’s a mistake to be overly conventional,” he continued.  “That kind of analysis may have led people astray in calling the 2016 race. I look at underlying currents in the economy, and I see a current of many people doing very well, others doing less well – neither side is completely playing to both of those groups.”

Hubbard said he “wouldn’t rule out” a Democratic presidential win, even if the candidate came from the far Left.

“When I ask business leaders about uncertainties they’re worried about, this is number one on their list,” Hubbard said, “because a scenario that delivers a far-Left Democratic President also delivers a Democratic Senate and could mean very different policies.”

At a fast-paced Joint Industry Forum session called Insurance Vision: Seeing Beyond 2020, the subject of artificial intelligence (AI) was bound to come up. Insurers are leveraging AI and machine learning (ML) as part of the data-driven revolution transforming the industry.

Sixty-two percent of top 100 U.S. carriers say they have adopted AI and ML initiatives.

Session moderator David Sampson, President and CEO, American Property Casualty Insurance Association, asked about how U.S. regulators are likely to react as carriers add data analytics to pricing toolkits.

In response, V.J. Dowling, Managing Partner, Dowling and Partners, predicted that “one of the biggest topics of the next 10 years” will be regulatory focus on disparate impact as insurers introduce AI into underwriting and claims handling.

Disparate impact refers to the disproportionate impact of an insurance rate structure on the premiums paid by protected minority classes. Dowling explained that while  personal lines insurers 30 years ago might have put customers into broad risk buckets to set a price for each, “technology and data has allowed the number of buckets to increase until, arguably, you get to a point where each individual person has their own price based on their specific characteristics. And what that means is, you get a much bigger dispersion of rates from high to low. The subsidization starts going away.”

Dowling recommended that everyone interested in the subject read this blog post by Lemonade CEO Daniel Schreiber. In the post, Schreiber says “algorithms we can’t understand can make insurance fairer.” Addressing regulators directly, he proposes a “uniform loss ratio test” for pricing outcomes.

To get an idea about how regulators are reacting to the increasing use of consumer data, Dowling points to this letter to life insurance companies from the New York State Department of Insurance.

“It basically says, you can do this, but if it has a disparate impact on the end result, you can’t do it. To me, there was a double negative. You effectively can’t do it,” he concluded.

Sampson asked the other panelist, Hayley Spink, head of global operations at Lloyd’s, to describe the hurdles insurers encountered to complying with the general data protection regulation (GDPR) that went into effect in 2018. GDPR governs how European Union companies handle, collect, and process personal data.

“Especially in our industry, we deal with personal data all the time and we share that personal data between ourselves and third parties, so this has had a big, big impact across the EU,” Spink said.

Insurers could face fines of up to €20 million for noncompliance with the GDPR. In the U.S., California and New York are working to implement similar consumer data privacy laws.

Turning to insurers’ innovative uses of technology, Spink spoke about the use of drones to assess damage after catastrophes and the use of parametric insurance to trigger payments of flood claims in the UK. Lloyd’s runs an innovation accelerator in which pioneering start-ups  are partnered with mentors from managing agents across the market.

The panelists also discussed social inflation, third-party capital, and adapting to the skills and interests of the modern workforce.

For the full Joint Industry Forum 2020 agenda click here. Check out this video for an overview of the conference. Interested in attending next year’s conference? Contact us at jif@iii.org.

Each year Triple-I hosts a conference called the Property/Casualty Joint Industry Forum. This event, which took place on January 16 this year, assembles key figures from the business, policymaking, and media spheres to explore topics of vital interest to the property/casualty insurance industry.

During his opening remarks, Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan laid out many of the key issues the industry is facing: extreme weather events (wildfires can now be as costly as hurricanes), flat interest rates, populism and political risk around the world, building the workforce of the future, and the race to better engage with customers. Making disaster resilience a win/win proposition for both insurers and their customers is another vital issue.

He then sat down with CBS News’ senior foreign affairs correspondent and Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan. They discussed current events, including the impeachment of President Trump and the recently signed trade deal with China. Ms. Brennan advised news consumers to make sure that they have a trusted source: “if they are a pain to each side,” then you know they get it right.

Over the next week or so, we’ll be blogging about the fascinating conversations that took place during the conference. Upcoming  posts will cover:

• Extreme Weather
• The Future of Insurance Marketing
• JIF 2020 Crystal Ball—What Does the Future Hold for the Insurance Industry?
• A 21st Century Workforce That Reflects the Communities We Serve
• A Conversation with Economist Dr. Glenn Hubbard on Business and the Economy

For a full agenda click here. Check out this video for an overview of the conference. Interested in attending next year’s conference? Contact us at jif@iii.org.