Category Archives: Auto Insurance

Auto Insurance, Highway Safety, Theft

U.S. Vehicle Thefts Hit Lowest Level in Decades

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Vehicle thefts dropped 23 percent nationwide in 2025, marking the second consecutive year of historic declines, according to the latest analysis from the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB).

At 659,880 thefts, last year’s drop built on the momentum of a 17 percent decline in 2024, previously the largest decrease in total thefts in four decades. Several jurisdictions experienced even greater year-over-year decreases, with vehicle theft down by 39 percent in Washington, 35 percent in Colorado, and 34 percent in Puerto Rico.

“Coordinated prevention efforts by law enforcement, auto manufacturers, insurance companies, and the National Insurance Crime Bureau are having a major impact on vehicle thefts nationwide,” said NICB president and CEO David J. Glawe, adding that such efforts “remain key to protecting families, businesses, and communities nationwide.”

Vehicle thefts surged in 2020 to about one vehicle stolen every 36 seconds, fueled in part by shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Levels remained elevated into 2023, which recorded more than one million thefts as social media trends highlighting vehicle security system vulnerabilities gained traction.

Many trends targeted Kia and Hyundai models, comprising six of the ten most stolen vehicles that year. In response, both manufacturers began implementing stronger prevention measures and software updates, reducing their share of total thefts from 21 percent in 2023 to 14 percent in 2025.

Despite overall progress, vehicle theft across the U.S. still occurs every 48 seconds, the NICB reported. Urban communities are at greater risk, with more than one-third of thefts concentrated in the top ten metro areas in 2025. Accordingly, California – home to three of the top ten areas – recorded the highest number of vehicle thefts in 2025, contributing more than 20 percent of the nation’s total.

Beyond the direct financial cost of losing these assets, theft of vehicles or car components add upward pressure on auto insurance rates, particularly within areas known to be high-risk. The cost to repair and replace stolen vehicles is also rising, compounding a market already impacted by mounting fraud and legal system abuse across the country.

While systemic improvements have helped improve theft rates, vehicle owners must take steps to help mitigate their own risk. Triple-I recommends the following precautions:

  • Keep doors locked and windows shut anytime a vehicle is left unattended.
  • Hide valuables in the trunk to prevent creating an additional target on the vehicle.
  • Park in secure, highly trafficked, and well-lit areas. In public parking areas, stay as close as possible to guard booths or store entrances. Keep personal garages locked.
  • Consider anti-theft devices such as audible alarms and steering wheel locks. Many new cars include tracking devices, which can help locate a stolen vehicle, but these are also available for purchase and installation in older cars. Check with an insurance professional to learn how anti-theft devices can qualify policyholders for premium discounts.
  • Exploit vehicle identification (VIN) numbers. A number of law enforcement agencies and insurance databases can use a VIN number to make it harder for car thieves to sell a stolen car or its parts.

Staying protected through adequate insurance coverage is also essential. Policyholders with auto policies that meet state-required minimums may lack coverage for vehicle theft or damage from theft, which is typically provided through optional comprehensive insurance.

Auto Insurance, Coastal Property, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

Florida Premiums Drop Amid Post-Reform Stability

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Legislative reforms to address claim fraud and legal system abuse in Florida have continued to help stabilize the state’s property/casualty insurance market, contributing to premium reductions for thousands of homeowners and drivers, according to the latest Triple-I Issues Brief.

Since the reforms, nearly 20 new property insurers have entered the state and existing carriers have expanded their market share, driving renewed competition in the private market. This shift facilitated the lowest number of policies administered by Citizens Property Insurance Corp. – the state-run insurer of last resort – in over a decade, after a 50 percent drop in policies in force from 2024.

Claims-related litigation has also plummeted, with insurance litigation filings down 23 percent year-over-year from 2023 to 2024. Filings then fell 25 percent during the first half of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, and remain below pre-2018 levels, as reported by the state governor’s office.

Florida’s reforms were enacted in 2022 and 2023, at a time when the state accounted for 72 percent of the nation’s homeowners claim-related litigation but only 10 percent of homeowners claims. The disparity reflected escalating premium rates and a multi-year insurer exodus, steering state lawmakers toward litigation reforms that, among other things, curtailed one-way attorney fees and assignment of benefits (AOB) for property insurance claims.

Ongoing market momentum

The impact of the reforms is particularly evident in Florida’s auto insurance market, which recorded the lowest personal auto liability loss ratio in the nation – and the state’s lowest in 15 years – in 2025, at 52.5 percent, according to the OIR. The market’s physical damage loss ratio also fell to 49.5 percent, reflecting a steady decline from 112.0 percent in 2022.

Such stability produced extensive savings for Florida drivers in 2025, with the state’s top five auto insurance groups averaging a more than 6 percent rate reduction through mid-year, accounting for 78 percent of the state’s auto market. These reductions have increased to an average of 8 percent based on the most recent 2026 regulatory filings.

Homeowners are also experiencing relief after more than 185 residential filings for flat or decreased rates over the past two years, the OIR reported. Rate changes have continued to flatten in the state after years of tracking the upward trend of rates nationally.

Lower reinsurance costs factor into this finding, translating to a 10.7 percent price decrease overall on reinsurance in 2025, according to a Gallagher Re report on the sustained success of Florida’s reforms.

“Hurricanes Helene and Milton, two powerful and destructive storms that hit Florida in September-October 2024, also provided a useful – if unwanted – test case for the reforms’ efficacy,” the report added. “Many insurers ceded losses on layers below the state’s catastrophe fund, but despite this, there was more reinsurance capacity than expected available for these layers.”

Learn More:

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Revealing Hidden Cost to Consumers of Auto Litigation Inflation

New Consumer Guide Highlights Economic Impact of Legal System Abuse and the Need for Reform

Disasters, Litigation Reshape Homeowners’ Insurance Affordability

Florida Senate Rejects Legal-Reform Challenge

Affordability, Auto Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

Uber Joins Effort to Drive Legal System Reform

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Ridesharing platforms like Uber are as vulnerable as other businesses to the cost impacts of legal system abuse – costs that inevitably are passed along to their customers. The company reported a more than 50 percent increase in its ride insurance costs per trip in recent years, despite also recording a lower rate of overall crashes from 2017 to 2022.

Passengers see these costs reflected in trip prices, with insurance accounting for roughly 10 percent of the average rider fare nationwide, or as high as 47 percent in costlier areas like Los Angeles County.

“Insurance for us is the second-highest operating cost after payment to drivers,” said Adam Blinick, Uber’s senior director of public policy and communications, in a recent Executive Exchange interview with Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “It’s been a bit of a calling card to get more aggressive on litigation and being public about where we see the abuse.”

Coordinated attorney outreach helps fuel the trend. Among motor accident victims surveyed by Protecting American Consumers Together, attorneys contacted 92 percent after their accident, including 57 percent who reported they were contacted by more than one. Solicitation typically occurred within a week of the incident, or “before insurance can play a part in addressing someone’s concerns,” Blinick noted.

“This creates more avenues to push people into these mills and artificially inflate the value of claims,” he said.

Third-party litigation funders play a major role in recruiting claimants. Though lack of transparency surrounding the market conceals its true size, a recent report from the National Insurance Crime Bureau and 4WARN estimates third-party funders spent more than $380 million on online search ads alone between June 2024 and June 2025, with some engaging in brand impersonation and search engine manipulation to mislead consumers and extend litigation.

Research from Triple-I and the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) estimates excessive litigation added $231.6 billion to $281.2 billion in liability insurance losses from 2015 to 2024, a finding that economic inflation alone cannot explain. A separate Triple-I report on civil case filings reinforces the finding, revealing approximately $42.8 billion in excess litigation value from motor vehicle tort cases filed between 2014 and 2023 in the federal and state civil courts.

“That’s a drop in the bucket to the reality of the problem,” Kevelighan said, “because less than 10 percent of cases had judgments. Others were settled and we can’t necessarily track the settlement data.”

Blinick discussed how uninsured and underinsured motorist (UM/UIM) insurance limits can also attract high claim volumes and disputes, particularly for the rideshare industry. Multiple states require ridesharing businesses to pay $1 million or more for such coverage, with limits in New York set at $1.25 million. Though intended to provide relief for policyholders hit by UM or UIM, these requirements mean bad actors stand to win more from claims, incentivizing excessive lawsuits and fraud.

Staged crashes generate many such claims, with some schemes involving a network of rideshare passengers who are “tied to the law firm, the medical providers, the body shops, the lenders themselves… all across the board,” Blinick said.

He added that many offenders “are the same ones who are doing slip and fall claims and mass tort suits against cities and counties. They’re not picky in terms of who they’re going after. They’re going wherever the opportunity presents itself.”

A 2025 California law that went into effect this year aims to help mitigate fraud by reducing the rideshare industry’s UM/UIM coverage limits from $1 million to $300,000 per accident. Uber has also submitted a November 2026 ballot measure that would cap contingency fees and limit medical damages in vehicle accident cases within the state, as well as shown support for New York’s 2027 budget proposals to combat fraud and unnecessary litigation.

Learn More:

Triple-I Legal System Abuse Awareness Campaign Enters California, Illinois

New York Among Least Affordable States for Auto Insurance

Claims Severity Drives Liability Insurance Losses

Revealing Hidden Cost to Consumers of Auto Litigation Inflation

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

New Consumer Guide Highlights Economic Impact of Legal System Abuse and Need for Reform

IRC Report Reveals One in Three Drivers Were Either Uninsured or Underinsured in 2023

Affordability, Auto Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

New York Among
Least Affordable States for Auto Insurance

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

New Yorkers pay the fourth-highest personal auto expenditures in the United States, costing households an average of $1,935 in 2024, or 2.23 percent of the state’s median household income, according to Triple-I’s latest Affordability Outlook.

Up from New York’s average of $1,753 in 2023, Triple-I’s estimates reflect the burgeoning toll of several expenditure cost drivers in the Empire State, many of which are structural factors beyond the insurance industry. Citing data from the Insurance Research Council (IRC) – like Triple-I, an affiliate of The Institutes – the report highlights four cost drivers that rank among the highest in the country, including:

  • Repair costs: New York has the third-highest auto repairs costs in the United States, at $864 more than the national average;
  • Carrier expense index: New York has the third-highest carrier expense index for personal auto insurance, at 14.9 percent of losses;
  • Injury claim costs: New York has the third-highest average injury claim severity in the country, at more than twice the national average; and
  • Accident frequency: New York has the eighth-highest average frequency of personal auto accidents in the nation, at 3.09 accidents.

While traffic density, road conditions, and driver education can contribute to accident frequency and severity, excessive and fraudulent claims litigation also fuel rising auto insurance premiums and overall costs in the state. Wiping out billions of dollars in U.S. economic activity annually, legal system abuse costs New York residents 427,794 jobs and $7,027 for each household per year, earning the state a recurring spot on the American Tort Reform Foundation’s list of “judicial hellholes.”

A surge in staged crashes underpins these figures, leaving drivers increasingly vulnerable to fraudulent damage or injury claims. Such incidents – totaling 1,729 in New York in 2023 – keep upward pressure on auto rates for all policyholders, inflating average auto premium by as much as $300 per year, Triple-I estimates.

To alleviate these cost burdens, a package of state budget proposals was recently unveiled to secure $2 million in funding for investigations into alleged auto fraud and introduce new regulations that extend the timeframe for carriers to report suspicious claims. Another law would cap pain and suffering damages awarded to drivers who engaged in criminal behavior, such as those who were uninsured at the time of the incident.

New York policymakers also passed legislation last month aimed at third-party litigation funding (TPLF), or funding from often anonymous investors who can delay prompt settlements in exchange for a share of larger damage awards, thereby propelling claims costs. Though falling short of mandating TPLF disclosure during litigation, the new law parallels effective tort reforms in other states, offering hope toward insurance market stability.

Homeowners insurance holds steady

Conversely, New York’s homeowners insurance premiums “are relatively average and reasonable as a percentage of household income,” contradicting “the narrative of an affordability crisis in New York’s homeowners insurance market,” said Patrick Schmid, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, in written testimony to state lawmakers.

With a 2.11 percent ratio of homeowners insurance expenditure to median household income, New York ranks 29th in an affordability study by the IRC, suggesting property and replacement costs contribute to the state’s housing affordability issues.

Policy interventions in insurance markets “would address a symptom rather than the cause” of such issues, Schmid stressed, urging lawmakers to focus instead on improving building material and labor costs; litigation trends; and other inflationary pressures.

While the specific policy levers may differ, Florida’s legal reforms in 2022 and 2023 led to 17 new insurance companies entering the state and rate reductions for dozens of homeowners and auto insurers, including a 6.5 percent average rate decrease for the state’s top five personal auto insurers in 2025.

Once a “poster child” for legal system abuse, Florida’s success demonstrates the need for continued reform in 2026 to promote a more competitive insurance market and greater affordability for consumers.

Learn More:

Triple-I Testifies on New York Insurance Affordability

Florida Governor Touts Auto Insurance Rebates, Tort Reform Success

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Insurance Affordability, Availability Demand Collaboration, Innovation

Disasters, Litigation Reshape Homeowners’ Insurance Affordability

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, General Liability, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Workers Compensation

Resilient U.S. P/C Market Performance Sets Stage for a Complex 2026

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I 

The U.S. property/casualty insurance industry demonstrated notable resilience throughout 2025, navigating a landscape marked by significant regional catastrophes and shifting economic pressures, according to the latest Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report from Triple-I and Milliman.

As the industry moves into 2026, the report notes, it does so from a position of historical strength yet faces an increasingly nuanced outlook shaped by market softening and lingering macroeconomic uncertainties.

The Triple-I/Milliman report is based on data through the third quarter of 2025,

Industry-Wide Performance and Profitability

The P/C insurance industry is forecast to achieve its lowest net combined ratio (NCR) in over a decade for the full year 2025. This achievement is particularly significant, given the challenges faced early in the year, including the devastating Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025.

A key driver of this success was the first Atlantic hurricane season with no U.S. landfall in 10 years. However, while profitability reached peak levels, top-line growth began to moderate. Aggregate net premium growth across all lines for 2025 is expected to be 5.9 percent, reflecting a continued slowing of the growth rate compared to 2024.

“We’re on track to achieve the lowest net combined ratio in over a decade, thanks in part to a hurricane season that spared the U.S. and strong homeowners performance, even after the Los Angeles fires in Q1 2025,” said Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., chief insurance officer at Triple-I. “Growth in personal lines premiums remains solid, and the narrowing gap between personal and commercial lines performance points to a cautiously optimistic outlook for the industry.”

Economic Outlook: Stability Meets Vulnerability

While the broader U.S. economy and the P/C sector remain stable, economists are keeping a close watch on emerging risks. The industry’s ability to maintain its momentum in 2026 may be tested by rising political and geopolitical tensions, as well as potential shifts in the labor market.

“Overall, the P/C insurance industry and the broader U.S. economy remain stable,” said Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I. “However, despite stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the third quarter, a closer look at the data suggests the U.S. economy may be increasingly vulnerable to rising economic, political, and geopolitical uncertainty. In particular, P/C replacement costs could still see significant increases in 2026, weighing on overall P/C performance.”

Léonard further highlighted that the labor market serves as a critical indicator, noting that a rise in the unemployment rate toward 5.0% over the next six months could potentially trigger an economic contraction.

Underwriting Results by Line of Business

Personal lines continue to anchor the industry’s profitability. Personal auto remains a standout performer with a forecast 2025 NCR of 94.4, an improvement over 2024 results. However, premium growth in this sector has slowed significantly, with net written premium growth expected to land at 3.6 percent — its lowest level since 2020. Homeowners’ insurance also showed remarkable recovery. Despite the heavy losses from the Los Angeles fires in the first quarter, the line’s 2025 NCR is forecast at 99.6, placing it on par with 2024 performance.

Commercial lines continue to face ongoing challenges in liability. While most of the industry enjoys profitability, general liability and commercial auto remain the only major lines forecast to stay above a 100 NCR for 2025. General liability continues to struggle with the highest Q3 direct incurred loss ratio reported in over 15 years.

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, detailed these persistent hurdles.

“General liability faces continued challenges,” Kurtz said. “Our 2025 net combined ratio is forecast to be similar to 2024, among the worst in over a decade. Losses are high, with Q3 direct incurred loss ratios being the highest in at least 25 years.”

He added, “While conditions may improve in 2026-2027, profitability remains a hurdle. Our general liability’s NCR expectations have risen following a challenging Q3, reflecting ongoing pressure in the segment. While some coverages are experiencing soft market conditions, aggregate premiums have been growing, but not enough to keep pace with loss trends.  We anticipate additional premium growth will be needed to improve general liability profitability.”

Workers’ compensation remains the strongest performing major line, with NCRs forecast to stay in the high 80s to low 90s through 2027. This sustained success is attributed to disciplined risk management and favorable prior accident year development.

“NCCI’s latest loss ratio trends continue to show declines,” said Donna Glenn, NCCI chief actuary. “In the current environment, modest year-to-year decreases are still expected.” Glenn noted that “while there have been a few rate increases filed in NCCI states, every state has its own story, and based on the latest data, NCCI does not anticipate any imminent reversal of current trends.”

Affordability, Auto Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment, Regulation

La. Auto Insurance Rates Benefit From Declines
in Frequency, Severity

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

More than 20 requests for auto insurance rate decreases have been filed with Louisana’s Department of Insurance by insurers since mid-2025. According to the department, the decreases were driven by reductions in accident frequency and severity.

“I’m glad to see positive movement on auto rates in Louisiana for the first time in years,” said Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple. “Because fewer accidents are contributing to these lower losses for insurers, we should not necessarily expect to see this level of decrease in future years unless we continue to pursue legal reform that addresses the foundational reasons our rates are the highest in the country.”

Temple said he hopes for further rate changes as the market continues to stabilize, citing Florida’s recent premium reductions after sweeping tort reform legislation in 2022 and 2023.

Longstanding affordability challenges

Among those who filed for rate decreases include Louisiana’s largest auto insurers, with the latest reductions impacting nearly 470,000 Progressive policyholders, or roughly 23.5 percent of the state’s auto market. More than one million State Farm policies also achieved lower average rates implemented this month.

While the statewide decreases can offer relief for drivers in one of the least affordable states for auto insurance, Temple cautioned that rates for individual policyholders will differ based on personal risk factors, urging consumers to shop among the “30 companies that have taken a rate decrease.”

The announcement arrives less than a year after Louisiana lawmakers passed a 2025 tort reform package to curb excessive lawsuits and a rate of bodily injury claims more than twice the national average. Beyond fueling higher insurance premiums in the state, such practices generate an annual $965 “tort tax” on every Louisianan and cost over 40,562 jobs per year, as highlighted by Triple-I’s consumer awareness campaign to build support for the reforms.

Other 2025 legislative measures, however, stipulate increased regulatory intervention in rate-setting, which can create further strain on an insurance market just beginning to recover. Another bill targeting nuclear verdicts (awards of $10 million or more) also failed to pass, playing a role in the state’s recurring spot on the American Tort Reform Foundation’s annual list of “judicial hellholes.”

Noting that reduced accident frequency contributed to the rate changes, Temple said in a statement that “we should not necessarily expect to see this level of decrease in future years unless we continue to pursue legal reform that addresses the foundational reasons our rates are the highest in the country.”

Lessons from Florida

Measurable benefits from Louisiana’s existing reforms may require a few more years to unfold, Temple added, based on the trajectory of similar legislation in Florida. In 2022, Florida accounted for over 70 percent of the nation’s homeowners claim-related litigation, despite representing only 15 percent of homeowners’ insurance claims, according to the state’s Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR). State legislators responded to the crisis with several tort laws that, among other things, eliminated one-way attorney fees and assignment of benefits (AOB) for property insurance claims.

Under the reforms, 17 new insurance companies have entered the Sunshine State and dozens of homeowners’ and auto insurers have filed for rate decreases, with Citizens Property Insurance – the state’s insurer of last resort – approved for major average rate cuts this spring, according to a recent announcement from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

A 50 percent drop in Citizens policies in 2025 helped facilitate the cuts, reflecting the largest transition of policies back to the private market in a decade. Later that year, additional cost-savings achieved through the reforms helped state regulators secure nearly $1 billion in premium refunds for Progressive auto insurance policyholders in the state.

Though the specific policy levers may differ, Florida’s reforms continue to model the kinds of market improvements that states like Louisiana and Georgia can expect after successfully passing their own tort legislation. State government moves like these are essential to eradicating legal system abuse and keeping insurance affordable and available, especially as legislative challenges to legal reform persist.

“Premiums are lowering because we’ve enacted real reforms and withstood the pressure to reverse course,” DeSantis said. “We will hold firm in our commitment not to go back to the broken insurance market of the past.”

Learn More:

Significant Tort Reform Advances in Louisiana

Florida Governor Touts Auto Insurance Rebates, Tort Reform Success

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Who’s Financing Legal System Abuse? Louisianans Need to Know

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, General Liability, Legal Environment

Claims Severity Drives Liability Insurance Losses

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

Economic and social inflation have added a staggering $231.6 billion to $281.2 billion in increased liability insurance losses and Defense and Cost Containment expenses in auto and general liability lines, a new report by Triple-I and the Casualty Actuarial Society.

The study – The Impact of Increasing Inflation on Liability Insurance 2015 – 2024 – says this structural rise in loss costs is amplified by what is broadly identified as legal system abuse.

The dual engine of increasing inflation

The analysis focuses on the total impact of increasing inflation determined through actuarial methods that are unable to decompose the precise contribution of economic inflation versus the role of what Triple-I characterizes as “legal system abuse” — policyholder or plaintiff attorney practices that increase costs and time to settle claims to the detriment of consumers, businesses, and the economy.  These practices include increasing litigiousness, third-party litigation financing, and soaring jury awards.

Claim severity powers losses

Across all lines analyzed, claim severity – not frequency – emerges as the primary driver of the escalating losses in liability lines of insurance. While the number of claims (frequency) has either generally declined or remained below pre-pandemic levels across the study period, the average cost per claim (severity) has soared. In commercial auto liability, for example, frequency has fallen dramatically since the pandemic, yet losses have still increased relentlessly because severity has risen 93.5 percent between 2015 and 2024.

Auto Liability

The report’s traditional focus on auto liability lines continues to show the most significant dollar-based impacts.

  • Personal auto liability: Increasing Inflation added between $91.6 billion and $102.3 billion to losses and DCC for the 2015–2024 period. This represents 8.7 percent  to 9.7 percent of losses and DCC for the period and an increase of 20 percent to 26 percent from the previous analysis on years 2014 through 2023. While the implied compound annual impact is lower than in the commercial sector, the dollar amount is huge due to the line’s immense underlying size. Personal auto severity has accelerated significantly post-2019, nearly tripling its compounded annual growth rate to 10.9 percent from 2019 to 2024. Premiums are only just beginning to rebound from pandemic-era lows, lagging the rise in losses.
  • Commercial Auto Liability: This line continues to sustain higher inflation rates in percentage terms. The total impact of increasing inflation reached $52.0 billion to $70.8 billion (22.6 percent  to 30.8 percent of booked losses). This represents an increase of 22 percent to 27 percent from the previous analysis.

A compelling cross-data set comparison with the Triple-I 2025 report, Review of Motor Vehicle Tort Cases Across the Federal And State Civil Courts, suggests that the “excess value” extracted by motor vehicle tort lawsuits—a clear measure of legal system abuse—was approximately $42.8 billion between 2014 and 2023. This quantitative finding suggests legal system abuse accounts for roughly one-third of the total Increasing Inflation effect in auto liability losses.

General liability lines

This year’s analysis expands to quantify the impact across broader general liability lines for the first time, revealing inflationary rates that are equally, if not more, dramatic in percentage terms.

  • Other Liability – Occurrence: Increasing inflation added between $83.4 billion and $103.3 billion to losses and DCC for the 2015–2024 period. This inflationary problem is comparable in dollar terms to personal auto liability, despite having only about one-third of the loss volume. Its implied annual impact of 3.7 percent on a paid basis is the highest of all the lines studied. Severity in this line grew at a compound annual rate of 6.8% from 2015 to 2024, far outpacing the Consumer Price Index All-Urban (CPI-U).
  • Product Liability – Occurrence: Increasing inflation added between $4.6 billion and $4.8 billion to losses and DCC for the 2015–2024 period. The smallest line examined exhibits the most dramatic severity trend with a compound annual growth rate of 22.3 percent between 2015 and 2024, resulting in a 512.5 percent severity increase overall. The effects appear to be accelerating, with the impact on Accident Year 2024 alone estimated at over 50% of that year’s booked losses.

For the “claims-made” categories of these liability lines (“other liability” and “product liability”), the study was unable to develop credible quantitative estimates due to shifts in business mix, data variability, and the inherent heterogeneity of the underlying risks. However, these lines have certainly not escaped the increasing inflationary environment.

Looking ahead

The data confirms a difficult truth: Even as general consumer price inflation (CPI-U) moderated to 3.0 percent in 2024—a reduction from the 2021-2023 average of 5.6 percent—the loss inflation in liability insurance remains structurally elevated. This means the economic tailwinds that temporarily exacerbated the problem are lessening, but the foundational issues of legal system abuse persist, locking in a higher rate of loss for the foreseeable future.

For consumers and businesses, this translates directly into higher premiums and a greater strain on their financial well-being. The challenge for insurers is the need to adapt to an elevated inflationary environment to effectively manage future liabilities. Recognizing and addressing the pervasive influence of legal system abuse is therefore essential for both managing risk and protecting consumers and businesses from ever-rising costs.

Triple-I continues to foster a research-based conversation around legal system abuse. For an overview of the topic and other helpful resources about its potential impact on insurers, policyholders, and the economy, check out our knowledge hub.

Auto Insurance, Legal Environment, Market Conditions, Regulation

Florida Governor Touts Auto Insurance Rebates, Tort Reform Success

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By Jeff Dunsavage, Senior Research Analyst, Triple-I

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced last week that state regulators have secured nearly $1 billion in premium refunds for Progressive auto insurance policyholders in the state, due to cost savings achieved through litigation reform.

DeSantis, who signed sweeping tort reform legislation bills into law in 2022 and 2023, said the refunds are a direct result of declining litigation expenses in Florida’s auto insurance market.

“Florida was really considered a litigation hellhole by a lot of folks,” DeSantis said. “That contributed to consumers having to bear more costs with respect to auto insurance.”

He pledged Insurance Commissioner Mike Yaworksy is negotiating with other major auto carriers for similar reimbursements to their customers.

Mark Friedlander, Triple-I’s director of communications, told Spectrum News Florida that reduced lawsuit expenses has enabled auto insurers to lower average costs and, in some cases, return premium to customers.

“When you take that out of the equation — all of those abusive lawsuits — this brings down the expenses, and that in turn gets passed along to the consumer,” Friedlander said. “The consumer wins with legal system reform.”

Learn More:

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Florida Senate Rejects Legal-Reform Challenge

What Florida’s Misguided Investigation Means for Georgia Tort Reform

Florida Bills Would Reverse Progress on Costly Legal System Abuse

Florida Reforms Bear Fruit as Premium Rates Stabilize 

How Georgia Might Learn From Florida Reforms

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

Florida Homeowners Premium Growth Slows as Reforms Take Hold, Inflation Cools

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Industry Financials, Market Conditions, Workers Compensation

Despite Headwinds,
P/C Insurance Industry Maintains Course in 2025

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry is on track for a second consecutive year of underwriting profitability in 2025, and is projected to grow faster than the broader U.S. economy, according to the latest Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report from Triple-I and Milliman. The report, which is based on data through the first half of 2025, highlights continued progress despite persistent geopolitical and natural catastrophe uncertainties.

Positive Economic Signals and Lingering Concerns

The industry’s economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. According to Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I, the industry has benefited from stronger-than-expected underlying growth. He also noted that P/C replacement costs continue to rise more slowly than overall inflation.

However, Léonard also pointed to factors that make the outlook for 2026 especially important to watch.

 “Ongoing risks, including tariffs, labor market softening and persistent inflation,” could pose challenges, he said. While the impact of tariffs has been less severe than initially anticipated, their long-term effect remains an open question.

Underwriting Performance: A Mixed Bag

Overall underwriting profitability for 2025 is expected to be a repeat of 2024, but to a lesser degree. The performance gap between personal lines and commercial lines is narrowing.  

“Favorable second-quarter results for homeowners helped narrow the anticipated 2025 gap between personal and commercial lines performance created by the Los Angeles fires in the first quarter,” said Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., Triple-I’s chief insurance officer.

Schmid also noted that personal lines premium growth is expected to remain higher than commercial lines by one point in 2025. That difference is projected to disappear by 2027.

Personal Lines

  • Personal Auto: The personal auto sector continues to be a highlight, with its forecast 2025 Net Combined Ratio (NCR) on track for continued profitability. The forecast has also slightly improved from prior estimates.
  • Homeowners: Despite favorable results in the second quarter, the homeowners’ NCR forecast for 2025 is still expected to be unprofitable for the year.

Commercial Lines

  • General Liability: This continues to be a line of concern. According to Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, “We see underwriting losses continuing in 2025, with the 2025 net combined ratio for GL forecast at 107.1.” He also said that, while slight improvement is expected in 2026-2027, “we estimate GL combined ratios to remain above 100.” Kurtz added, “Direct incurred loss ratios through mid-2025 have not improved relative to 2024’s poor result. Forecasted net written premium growth of 8.0 percent is 4.8 points above 2024 as premiums respond to recent performance.”
  • Workers Compensation: In contrast to general liability, workers’ compensation remains the strongest-performing major line in the P/C industry. Preliminary 2025 results from NCCI show calendar year combined ratios in the range of 85–93 percent. Donna Glenn, Chief Actuary at NCCI, noted, “If this holds, it will represent 12 consecutive years of combined ratios under 100% for private carriers.” For more details on the preliminary Workers Comp 2025 results, see NCCI’s full analysis in 2025 in Sight, 2024 in Review: The Latest Results for Workers Compensation.

Delving Deeper: A Members-Only View

For members who want to dig deeper into the projections, the full Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report offers a more granular analysis, including:

  • A detailed look at personal auto and commercial auto results, breaking down the quarterly experience between auto liability and physical damage.
  • A forecast of net combined ratio and net written premium growth specific to farmowners insurance.
  • A comparison of commercial property sub-lines.
  • A breakdown of commercial multiple peril results, differentiating between property and liability performance.

The next quarterly report will be presented at a members-only webinar in January 2026.

Auto Insurance, Legal Environment

Revealing Hidden Cost
to Consumers of Auto Litigation Inflation

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

Motor vehicle tort cases in federal and state courts generated $42.8 billion in “excess value” from 2014 to 2023, according to new analysis by Triple-I.

“Excess value” may sound like a good thing, but it’s not. It represents an additional cost of motor vehicle civil litigation – above and beyond what it would have been if prior trends in court filings had continued. From 1995 to 2007, filings declined, and from 2007 to 2014 they were flat.

The report illustrates the impact of litigation inflation on insurance premiums for all drivers. It also underscores the challenges related to accurately quantifying and comparing state-by-state experience.

Lawsuits push premium up

As Triple-I has previously reported, litigation trends are a major force driving up auto insurance premiums.  As claims costs rise – whether due to rising repair costs, litigation, or other factors – premiums must increase to ensure that insurers have enough policyholder surplus to pay future, higher claims.

Policyholder surplus is not a nice-to-have extra. It is the money state regulators require insurers to maintain so they will be able to keep their promises to pay policyholders. In addition, credit rating agencies expect insurers to keep even larger surpluses than the states mandate to enable the insurers to borrow at more favorable interest rates when needed.

Interestingly, motor vehicle tort settlement amounts appear to have decreased on average between 2014 and 2023. While actual settlement amounts are not reported, the “amount in controversy” – legalese for the amount demanded by the plaintiff – serves as a proxy for filings disposed as settlements. The average amount in controversy decreased from $748,000 in the first of the three decades under consideration to $674,000 in the third.

However, the increased volume of cases during the period drove the overall excess value to $984.6 million at the federal level alone.

State courts present a challenge

The report estimates that state courts handled approximately 5.0 million motor vehicle tort cases from 2014 to 2023, generating an excess value of $41.8 billion – dwarfing the federal court impact. This analysis, however, is challenged by the state-by-state variety of definitions and criteria for data collection.  

“Because states maintain different definitions and criteria for data collection, most state civil case data is either unavailable or incomplete,” the report says.

The report concludes that its findings align with previous research by Triple-I and the Casualty Actuarial Society, which quantified increasing inflation on auto liability insurance at $118.9 billion for 2014-2023, representing both litigation and economic inflation.

“As we continue to analyze the evolving landscape of motor vehicle litigation, it’s clear that a deeper, data-driven understanding of both national and state trends is crucial,” said Patrick Schmid, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer. “Only with more transparent and comprehensive data can we craft effective solutions that benefit both policyholders and the broader insurance market. Future research should focus on bridging the gaps in state-level information and exploring the causal factors behind rising litigation and its impacts.”

Learn More:

New Consumer Guide Highlights Economic Impact of Legal System Abuse and the Need for Reform

Auto Premium Growth Slows as Policyholders Shop Around, Study Says

Florida Bills Would Reverse Progress on Costly Legal System Abuse

Personal Auto Shines, General Liability Faces Headwinds in Q3 2025

Even With Recent Rises, Auto Insurance Is More Affordable Than During Most of Century to Date

Georgia Targets Legal System Abuse

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Despite Fewer Claims, Personal Auto Insurance Payouts Increase