All posts by Tasha Williams

Careers and Employment, Insurance Industry

Women are fueling industry prosperity but left out of the C-Suite

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The insurance industry is on track for continued growth, with women playing a huge part, but gender equity at the top remains a long way off.  Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows the talent pipeline isn’t an issue, as women account for 59.4 percent of the insurance workforce. They comprise 80.1 percent of workers serving as claims and policy processing clerks, 54.9 percent in sales roles, and 56.9 percent of underwriters. Yet, only about 22 percent (less than 1 in 4) of workers in the C-Suite are women.

Despite the setbacks of the early pandemic years, in which women shouldered the brunt of related workforce losses, women have made up roughly 60 percent of the insurance workforce each year since 2012, exceeding their share of total employment in the U.S. (46.9 percent).

Private sector research adds more details to this stark picture. A Marsh study conducted in 2022 revealed that “25 out of 27 (92.5 percent) of the largest insurance companies were led by men.” Similarly, a McKinsey study showed, “white women make up 45 percent of entry-level roles yet…fewer than one in five direct reports to the CEO are women.” Gender disparities also appear to increase across race and ethnicity.

A recent study from Liberty Mutual and Safeco Insurance shows that the number of women owners or principals in insurance agencies decreased from 31 percent to 26 percent between 2022 and 2023. In contrast, women comprise 75 percent of customer-facing staff in those organizations.

S&P Global Research analysis findings suggest “women could reach parity in senior leadership positions between 2030 and 2037, among companies in the Russell 3000.” Whether that might play out sooner or later for insurance isn’t clear. The August 2023 report also reveals that the “majority of progress towards gender parity is coming from women taking seats on company boards.” Still, C-suite leadership across all industries may not show full gender parity until the 2050s, and “the highest levels in CEO and CFO positions could take even longer.”

Gender parity can offer solutions for a healthy financial future

Meanwhile, the industry expects to face massive attrition as thousands of workers (along with their leadership skills and knowledge) eventually exit the workforce in the coming years. Automation and artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) may eliminate the need for some roles. Still, insurers will undoubtedly need to maintain an ecosystem of efficiency and innovation to remain profitable. Increased implementation of data-driven processes and decision-making brings new ethical implications and regulatory responsibilities.

Organizational diversity is commonly defined as people from a variety of backgrounds and perspectives working together to solve business problems. Strategic long-term success requires identifying, developing, and promoting diverse talent at all levels. However, a lack of diversity at the C-suite level can undermine the most valiant recruitment efforts in other parts of the organization. Today’s driven and career-focused candidates are wary of glass ceilings and may want evidence that inclusion and equity come from the top.

Research has indicated women in leadership can positively impact the organizations they run. After a series of four studies over several years, findings from McKinsey indicate that “leadership diversity is also convincingly associated with holistic growth ambitions, greater social impact, and more satisfied workforces.” Further, the most recent study also notes the “business case for gender diversity on executive teams has more than doubled over the past decade.” Other research indicates that, among U.S. property-casualty insurance companies, female CEOs are associated with “lower insurer insolvency propensity, higher z-score, and lower standard deviation of return on assets.”

In the era of the nation’s first female vice-president, ultimately, corporate boards might find that reflecting the market demographics the savviest and most compelling of all reasons to diversify senior leadership. Together, U.S. millennials and the oldest Gen Zers (already taking on adult responsibilities) command nearly $3 trillion in spending power each year. Both generations have duly prepared themselves to advance in the workforce, becoming more educated than previous generations. And they will no doubt grab an opportunity where they can find it.

Insurance Industry

Will the D&O market conditions remain favorable? Allianz report says 2024 will bring its share of challenges.

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Several global challenges pose a significant threat to maintaining soft market conditions for Directors and Officers (D&O) liability coverage, according to the most recent report on the sector by Allianz.

A list of salient risks and trends to monitor during 2024 spans various areas, including:

  • Macroeconomics,
  • Geopolitical,
  • Generative AI (GenAI),
  • Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), and
  • Class action filings and third-party litigation funding.

According to the latest edition of Directors and Officers Insurance Insights, any of these factors could change the outlook for a competitive market this year.

The D&O market may have mostly avoided the bumps and scrapes faced by other lines of coverage in 2023. With double-digit decreases in insurance pricing worldwide, new market entrants, favorable loss ratios, and a reduction in the Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), the environment contrasts sharply with the early pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Over 90 percent of D&O underwriters (in a separate study) expected pricing to decrease or stay the same for mature public companies in 2024.

However, Allianz (in conjunction with Munich Re) predicted business insolvencies may rise by 10 percent in 2024. In today’s dynamic environment, organizations — from startups to multi-national behemoths — may rely on D&O policies to manage liabilities arising from executive leadership decisions. Having coverage in place signifies attention to the bottom line and removes a barrier to recruiting the best leadership talent.

The 2023 economy delivered many hurdles, particularly in rising costs and interest rates, rendering the effective management of capital expenditure[DJ1]   and debt a cryptic challenge for organizations and their executives. Add to that mix insolvency activity that is starting to look similar to what followed the 2009 global financial crisis. The “likelihood of a recession in the US and UK continues to rise in 2024,” the report says.

Citing Fitch’s analysis, the report warns of threats to future profitability from “weaker pricing and the potential claims volatility from a myriad of sources.” Still, Allianz suggests that reserves from most recent years may safeguard “near-term underwriting results.”

The early 2023 banking crisis is expected to leave a mark on the D&O segment as each of the bank failures and near failures – widely attributed to substandard banking practices – resulted in a securities fraud claim. The forecasted multi-billion dollar losses in market cap and final disclosure pose an enormous threat to insurance towers, the layers of coverage spreading risk across multiple insurers and coverage levels to diversify overall risk exposure. Consequently, the report advises closely monitoring banks with large commercial property portfolios and how the Treasury plans to rebuild its cash balance from the lowest level in seven years.

The report discusses how technology advancements offer a mixed bag for the D&O segment, creating advantages for organizational efficiency and productivity but also new risks surrounding cybersecurity, regulatory requirements, transparency and governance, litigation, and investor expectations. Cybersecurity, in general, has been on the radar for several years now. However Generative AI (GenAI), a relatively new technology in the risk management spotlight, could enable more threats for cyber risk management.

Separately, Gen AI has already sparked intellectual property and privacy claims. Future claims could emerge in securities, breach of fiduciary, shareholder, and derivative lawsuits. The report states that managing risks posed by Gen AI requires the cultivation of expertise-driven best practices and protocols.

Another 21st-century issue, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), appears to have permanently taken root as a factor in the D&O risk landscape. Despite the ongoing debate over its value, definition, and measurement, the ESG framework encompasses a growing list of conundrums faced by directors and officers. Organizations don’t operate in a vacuum but in communities where human rights, climate risk, and other ESG concerns can infiltrate business-as-usual operations. Tactics that avoid or incur costly regulatory sanctions can also spark lawsuits from private stakeholders.

“In a world that is becoming increasingly polarized politically and socially, the very need for directors to evaluate and address the impact of various ESG factors on corporate value creates that claims will be made…on either or both sides of any given issue,” the report states.

The specter of increased litigation costs persists as federal securities class actions climbed to 201 by early December in 2023 (up from 197 in 2022) and total settlement dollars outpaced historical levels. Figures for only the first half of 2023 exceeded the total for 2022, climbing to a ten-year record high.

The D&O segment has always been dynamic, and claims can arise from various sources, including shareholders, employees, regulatory agencies, competitors, and customers. Therefore, the product continues to play a vital role in mitigating the risks associated with corporate governance and protecting the interests of directors, officers, and the companies they serve. Overall, the market’s future will remain competitive as established insurers move to address underwriting challenges, but it’s not likely that the 2024 environment will be hospitable to new insurers lacking a substantial portfolio.

Careers and Employment, Insurance Industry

Advancing diversity requires insurers and prospects to adopt a proactive mindset

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Tiara Wallace recently accepted her role as the Director of Risk for Invesco US and can’t seem to hide her contagious excitement for her profession. After announcing in a recent interview with Triple-I that she is a new “dog mom,” she proudly revealed that she is a parent to a 20-year-old “who is in college and recently switched his major to risk management.”

She had explained to her son how some activities in his current (but unrelated) campus job, such as “reviewing contracts and determining if the appeal process is working,” could be a good foundation for a future role in the field.

Wallace’s advocacy for careers in risk management doesn’t stop with her family. Having spent some time as an adjunct professor at the University of Oklahoma, she delights in frequently sharing with young people the benefits and opportunities they might find in her profession. She tells them that “insurance and risk management is such a great and lucrative career,” welcoming people from various backgrounds.

“Some folks have college, some people just have experience in the industry. But you’re able to make it into whatever you need for your life. And there’s so many routes you can go down.”

She launched her journey by working in claims adjustment for ten years. Then she decided it was time for a change. “Do I pivot now and make the change into something else?” she asked herself. 

A friend remarked on her talent for educating people and understanding what drives claims. “Have you ever thought about safety or risk management?” her friend asked.

Wallace says a risk management major wasn’t available to her as an undergraduate. “So I did what any typical millennial does and I got on the Internet and started to look up jobs.”

She was surprised to discover she was already familiar with the foundations. She thought, “This is what we all do day-to-day, right – managing our decisions and determining where our risk appetite is?

She gives ample credit to her mentor, who has since become a family friend, for giving her a transformational opportunity. “He was the VP of Risk for a privately held bank in Oklahoma,” she says. He hired her as the risk manager for a family group of 20 ultra-high-net-worth individuals.

The job suited her well. “It was never mundane…and that really spoke to me and really started the journey into risk management for me.”

Years later, Wallace eventually relocated to Dallas and is now in her role working with commercial real estate and private equity at Invesco. The knowledge and skills she acquired working with the private firm are helping her excel in a publicly traded company, where she continues to grow.

“I’m learning a ton, and there’s a lot coming at me, but I enjoy the challenge.”

When asked what changes she’s witnessed in her field over the years regarding diversity, Wallace is candid, pragmatic, and hopeful.

“Going from a call center and claims where you see all types of people to these areas where it’s on the commercial side, and I’m going to different conferences. Sometimes, you can see the same type of person that fills the role.”

Wallace describes her firsthand account of an issue that is widely documented by various organizations – from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to key players in the risk management field, such as  Marsh.

For example, BLS data on Black and African American representation in the insurance industry shows that representation is increasing, with 14.6% employees in the field, up from 9.9% in 2014. Black professionals held 19.2% of insurance claims and processing clerk roles. However, as of 2020, only 1.8% (just three out of 168) of executive employees in the industry are Black, according to data sourced by Reuters

 “In the last three or four years, I think what I’ve began to see, just from the different generations entering in, is there is a more of a push for that diversity,” Wallace says. She notes that the diversity sought is not only in race, ethnicity, gender, and other identities but also in neurodiversity and professional backgrounds.

“I think that we still have a long way to go. But we’re starting to see more where the realization is, hey, we need a diverse candidate pool because here in the next what, 5 to 10 years, we’re gonna have an exodus in this market.”

Wallace admits that, as a long-standing industry, insurance can take some time to catch up while technology, demographics, and other structural factors are rapidly changing the game for the entire economy.

“We have not traditionally, and we’re still currently, not always quick to jump on thinking proactively or moving forward.” Nonetheless, Wallace says she is taking an active role in creating the future she wants to see.

“And so I think the thing that I started to realize is… I’m gonna be part of this change. So let me get involved in organizations.” Her educational experience likely played a role in this outlook.

She recalls how her college business fraternity leader asked her to “Go find three people that look like you. And three people that do not look or come from where you come from and recruit them.”

Wallace took up the challenge, of course. “That was one of the most phenomenal years because I got to learn so much. So I brought that mindset into this industry,” she says.

When Wallace was studying for her master’s degree years ago, a professor encouraged the class to be “agents of social change, like go in and be a disruptor.”

Now, when she advises people on connecting with diverse prospects, she asks whether they are searching beyond their personal networks and traditional spaces. “Are you going to HBCUs (Historically Black Colleges and Universities)? Are you going to different candidate pools? Are you going to rural cities and towns where maybe people have not historically gone into? Are you also talking to veterans?”

Wallace also recognizes that the work environment will be as critical to diversity success as recruiting tactics. For example, she asks, “Are our spaces friendly and inviting to those that maybe have disabilities?”

She encourages aspiring professionals to think beyond the cliche of an insurance job to see where they may fit.  “Are you good at marketing? Because these insurance companies need marketing departments. Are you handy on the Internet? Oh, well, great. There’s a place in cyber or also IT (Information Technology) infrastructure.” The goal, she says, is “just having these conversations to get different people into this space…in the industry.”

“Some of you are gonna be strategic, too, you know, to implant yourselves in areas that traditionally have not allowed you to enter.”

Wallace says she would tell her younger self that being bolder and assertive in asking for what she needs will be crucial.

“As a woman, you better be able to sell yourself and brag on yourself and not and not take a step back and just assume that’s what everyone is doing. Make the ask because you can get paid for what it is. But you have to be bold enough — whether that’s a sale, whether that’s a salary, whether that’s you need staffing in your department, or you need help. Make the ask because you are the one that is in there working it day to day.”

Auto Insurance, Emerging Risks, Homeowners Insurance, Insurance Industry

New Triple-I Issue Brief Takes a Deep Dive into Legal System Abuse

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The increasing frequency and severity of claims costs beyond insurer expectations continue to threaten insurance coverage and affordability. Triple-I’s latest Issue Brief, Legal System Abuse – State of the Risk describes how trends in claims litigation can drive social inflation, leading to higher insurance premiums for policyholders and losses for insurers.

Key Takeaways

  • Insured losses continue to exceed expectations and surpass inflation, notably impacting coverage affordability and availability in Florida and Louisiana.
  • In promoting the term “legal system abuse”, Triple-I seeks to capture how litigation and related systemic trends amplify social inflation.
  • Progress has been made toward increased awareness about the risks of third-party litigation funding (TPLF), but more work is needed.

What we mean when we talk about legal system abuse

Legal system abuse occurs when policyholders, plaintiff attorneys, or other third parties use fraudulent or unnecessary tactics in pursuing an insurance claim payout, increasing the time and cost of settling insurance claims. These actions can include illegal maneuvers, such as claims inflation and frivolous or outright fraudulent claims. Unscrupulous contractors, for example, seek to profit from Assignment of Benefits (AOBs) by overstating repair costs and then filing lawsuits against the insurer – sometimes even without the homeowner’s knowledge. Filing a lawsuit to reap an outsized payout when it’s evident the claims process will likely provide a fair, reasonable, and timely claim settlement can also be considered legal system abuse.

The latest brief provides a round-up of several studies Triple-I and other organizations conducted on elements of these litigation trends. The report, “Impact of Increasing Inflation on Personal and Commercial Auto Liability Insurance,” describes the $96 billion to $105 billion increase in combined claim payouts for U.S. personal and commercial auto insurer liability. The Insurance Research Council highlighted the dire lack of affordability for personal auto and homeowners insurance coverage in Louisiana, along with the state’s exceptionally high claim litigation rates.

Readers will also find an update on the discussion of legal industry trends associated with increased claims litigation. The lack of transparency around TPLF arrangements and the fear of outside influence on cases are attracting the attention of legislators at the state and federal levels. The brief also describes how some law firms may use TPLF resources to encourage large windfall-seeking lawsuits instead of speedy and fair claims litigation. Research findings suggest that consumers have become aware of how ubiquitous attorney ads can influence the frequency of lawsuits, increasing claims costs.

Florida: a case study in the consequences of excessive litigation

While several states, such as California, Colorado, and Louisiana, are experiencing a drastic rise in the cost of homeowners’ insurance, this brief discusses Florida. Property insurance premiums there rank the highest in the nation. Several insurers facing insurmountable losses have stopped writing new policies or left the state in the last few years. In some areas, residents are leaving, too, because of skyrocketing premiums.

Excessive claims litigation isn’t a new issue for insurers, but it can work with other elements to shift loss ratios and disrupt forecasts, rendering cost management more challenging. In Florida, factors such as the rise in home values and frequency of extreme weather events play a significant role, along with the challenges homeowners face in the aftermath: soaring construction costs, supply chain bottlenecks, and new building codes. However, Florida also leads the nation in litigating property claims. While 15 percent of all homeowners claims in the nation originate in the state, Floridians file 71 percent of homeowners insurance lawsuits.

In Florida and elsewhere, increasing time to settle a claim puts a financial strain on insurers, which is passed on to policyholders in the form of higher premiums. Legal system abuse activities are difficult (if not impossible) to forecast and mitigate, hampering insurers’ ability to remain in the market. Therefore, legal system abuse could be one of the biggest underlying drivers of social inflation. Without preventive measures, such as policy intervention and increased policyholder awareness, coverage affordability and availability is at risk.

Triple-I remains committed to advancing the conversation and exploring actionable strategies with all stakeholders. Learn more about legal system abuse and its components, such as third-party litigation funding by following our blog and checking out our social inflation knowledge hub.

Careers and Employment

Exploring the DEI Toolbox: Employee Engagement

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Safiya Reid took a professional journey that demonstrates career diversity. Her first job out of college was with Pfizer as a pharmaceutical sales representative. Later, she worked on the Rickey Smiley Morning Show as a production intern and at a chain dine-in restaurant while in graduate school. Eventually, after landing in insurance, “I kind of just never left,” she said.  

Reid sat down with Triple-I to discuss how her Assistant Vice President of Employee Engagement role at Pure insurance fits into the larger picture of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) and how this work can enable a more robust organization and industry. 

When asked why DEI should be an essential strategic objective for the insurance industry, she addresses the myth that DEI benefits a small portion of employees. 

“When you think about women, when you think about people of color, that is the majority of the organization.” 

“I look at employee engagement as kind of the health and wellness of the employee population.”   

Reid uses data and various tools, such as engagement polls, proactive strategies, and best practices, to understand how the people in her organization experience their work and the challenges they face. As she sees it, her mission is to ensure that “everyone can have the resources that they need to be successful in the organization and outside of it.” 

Ultimately, Reid aims to monitor “the pulse”, how employees (including the aforementioned majority) experience their work.  

Understanding this pulse and how strategic DEI success can shape it is mission-critical. “If not, it’s just a matter of time before it starts to affect the business–if it isn’t already,” she said. 

In the face of a growing trend of political pushback that has even led to disinvestment at some high-profile organizations and agencies, she and her colleagues remain undaunted in their DEI mission. “I think it’s important that we not go back to square one and start relitigating why DEI matters.” 

She believes it’s vital to have measurements in place to track progress. “We know the commitment that we made. We’re going to keep marching forward to the next milestone until you know it’s time to set a new milestone.” 

Reid spoke in detail about how she thinks the intense stream of events over the past five years – the COVID pandemic, protest movement for George Floyd , #Metoo, the rise of remote work, etc. – may have impacted diverse representation in the industry and across the workforce. Many people grappled with unprecedented personal challenges, such as caregiving for young children or adult family members while working remotely and simultaneously coping with mass grief as communities lost scores of loved ones. Boundaries that people relied on to preserve their emotional well-being were breached and erased in some ways. 

“We were so used to leaving everything outside, whether at the bus stop, when the train starts, or the car,” she explained. “You know, we were all at a point where the,  ‘messiness’ of our lives, we could no longer leave that at the door. 

In her observation, attempts to cope ignited more discussion and a drive to understand “the pieces of ourselves that we would leave outside.” She says, “There’s a term for this behavior called covering.” 

Specifically, people may “cover” by hiding or downplaying aspects of their identity in the workplace. These aspects are typically those associated with an impact on their chances of career survival or advancement. For example, a single mother may avoid sharing stories or photos of her children because she fears being passed over for opportunities if colleagues fear she won’t be able to balance parenting with increased professional obligations.  

Reid says her team learned about this concept from the Neuroscience Leadership Institute in 2020. However, the term was coined in 1963 by sociologist Erving Goffman. 

For employees to feel at home and be their authentic selves, there needs to be an environment that fosters inclusion. Which compels the question, What might be necessary for ensuring that employees feel welcome and supported? 

Possibly, the answer lies in forging open and honest communication. “We’ve built a place where when something is wrong, there are channels in a place where you can talk to somebody about that and get that resolved in a timely fashion,” said Reid.  

More data about the DEI landscape in an organization or industry-wide can increase the capacity to make progress. Reid agrees that data is valuable, but she said what we do with it can be more important than having it. 

“I would want to first know how we are planning on using that. There may be additional data points that we need to tell a larger story,” she said. Specifically, the outcome needs to involve “figuring out who the audience is of this data and what change or what action we want them to do because of it. And then making sure all of that is connected and aligned.” 

The challenges to move the needle on DEI can be complex, involving a multi-pronged approach and long-term investment. The ultimate goal is not only increased representation but retention. As such, there are low-hanging fruit opportunities that insurance organizations can consider to make employees feel more included in a team that values them.  

“I would say first and foremost, make sure you take care of the ones you got first,” Reid said. “If you are cultivating a toxic environment, bringing in more people, particularly folks that have less advantages and throwing them into it… that’s not helpful. Everybody’s not going to be happy.” 

Reid offers a solution for organizations that need help approaching the issue. They can use “engagement surveys to find out what the pulse is.” She recommends promoting a way for employees to voice their concerns in a manner that can be heard equitably. 

And what advice would she give her younger self when starting in the industry? “Get here a lot sooner!” 

Cyber Risk, Insurance Industry

Cyber insurance market continues rapid growth as risk management strategies improve

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As the number of cyber security breaches soars, direct written premiums (DPW) for cyber insurance worldwide could rise to $23 billion by 2025, with U.S. businesses paying about 56 percent of the total, according to Triple-I’s latest Issues Brief.

Cyber Insurance: State of the Risk, published last week, says the most recent data shows standalone policies have emerged as the preference for larger insureds, accounting for more than 70 percent of DPW – an increase of 61.5 percent from the prior year. These growth trends may signify that businesses recognize the growing threat of cyber risk requires mitigation beyond the typical coverage limitations of packaged options. Loss ratios also improved over 2021 rates, with declines of 23 percentage points, to 43 percent, on standalone policies and 18 percentage points, to 48 percent, on packaged policies. These improvements are evidence of improved cost-containment strategies. 

A two-edged sword

The brief outlines how technology can foster opportunities for cyber attackers and deliver ways for cybersecurity managers to predict, prevent, and manage threats. Increased use of cloud storage, remote working, and the “bring your own device” IT approach has amplified points of organizational vulnerability. And, as more companies and their employees are increasingly leveraging AI to boost operational efficiency, cyber attackers have created large language models (LLMs) to mimic the functionalities of ChatGPT and Google’s Bard to aid in phishing and malware attacks. 

Even the smallest businesses face threats that can incapacitate an organization. However, organizations can manage breaches more efficiently using AI for faster breach detection and implementing requirements for two-factor authentication, VPN use on external Wi-Fi networks, and data-wiping processes for lost or stolen devices.

Cyber insurance has become an integral part of robust prediction and prevention.

The bulk of cyber insurance claims by volume and frequency stem from ransomware and extortion-based attacks, according to an October 2023 report from Allianz. The report also says the annual proportion of cases in which data is stolen has consistently risen from “40 percent of cases in 2019 to around 77 percent of cases in 2022, with 2023 on course to surpass last year’s total.”  

The Allianz report highlights the growing need for businesses to improve prediction and prevention strategies, internally and with external partners and supply chain relationships. It makes practical sense that indemnification for cyber risk has become a common requirement for vendors doing business with frequently targeted sectors.  

The Triple-I brief states that as insurers refine policy terms to make the scope of coverage more understandable, business risk managers are better able to comprehend how cyber insurance can mitigate their risks. In turn, insurers may have been able to gain improvements in cost containment and rate stability. 

Triple-I supports increased awareness of the threat landscape

Cyber insurance can play a pivotal role in liability management. Sean Kevelighan, Triple-I’s CEO, participated on a panel during the Small Business Cyber Summit, a series hosted by the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). Discussions offered insights and tips for cybersecurity risk managers and other experts. Kevelighan explained how cyber insurance can allow “businesses to more strategically allocate their resources” in the battle against cyber threats.

Kevelighan participated in another fall 2023 cyber risk panel hosted by The Institutes Griffith Foundation in collaboration with Indiana University. The presentation, Cyber Risk: Exploring the Threat Landscape and the Role of Risk Management, focused on risks to national infrastructure and companies. Accordingly, panelists discussed how regulators and businesses have responded to the inevitable threat of cyberattacks. Speakers shared expertise in three core areas:

  • the Cyber Threat Landscape
  • ransomware and insurer solvency; and
  • eminent challenges for cyber risk insurance.
Insurance Industry

Surge in U.S. auto insurer claim payouts due to economic and social inflation

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The latest Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) research indicates that between 2013 and 2022, economic and social inflation fueled a $96 to $105 billion increase in combined claim payouts for U.S. personal and commercial auto insurer liability.  

The report “Impact of Increasing Inflation on Personal and Commercial Auto Liability Insurance” outlines Triple-I’s continued exploration of the impact of social inflation on insurer costs and claim payouts. The study proposes that increasing inflation drove loss and DCC (defense containment costs) higher in both insurance lines– by 6.5 percent ($61 billion) of total loss and DCC for personal auto and by 19 to 24 percent ($35 to $44 billion) for commercial auto. 

Key Takeaways 

  • Estimates place the average annual impact of increasing inflation at 0.6 percent for personal auto and 2.7 percent for commercial auto. 
  • The accident rate (claim frequency) declined, and claim severity (size of losses) increased dramatically for personal and commercial lines. 
  • Increasing inflation was mainly driven by social inflation factors before 2021, and since that year, it has continued as a product of economic and social inflation. 

Researchers Jim Lynch, FCAS, MAAA, Triple-I’s former chief actuary, Dave Moore, FCAS, MAAA, president, Moore Actuarial Consulting, LLC, and Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, approached the topic in a manner similar to their prior collaborations (in 2022 and early 2023). They used loss development patterns to identify inflation for selected property/casualty lines in excess of inflation in the overall economy. However, they extended their methodology in this project to use annual statement data through year-end 2022. Also, in this report, the authors use the term “inflation” for the first time to convey the operative mix of social and economic inflation on insurers’ costs. 

Commercial Auto Liability 

Data indicates that commercial auto liability faces its share of challenges, too, as losses have outpaced the growth rate of the overall economy. Claim severity (size of losses) has risen 72 percent overall since 2013, with the median annual increase at 6.3 percent. The report compares this change to the annual median increase of 2.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index, an observation offered as evidence that before 2020, social inflation may have been a primary factor in loss trends.  

Researchers estimate that from 2013 to 2022, increasing inflation drove losses up by between $35 billion and $44 billion, or between 19 percent and 24 percent. The pandemic brought significant change to commercial auto liability, decreasing claim frequency while increasing claim severity more dramatically. Researchers contend the loss development factors for this line of business signal an ongoing problem of inflationary factors. 

Personal Auto Liability 

This line took in four times the net earned premiums in 2022 as commercial auto liability. However, multimillion-dollar personal auto settlements are rare; consequently, the cases have less impact on insured losses or development patterns. Premiums and insurer losses in this line fluctuated over the prior two decades but continue to increase, albeit more slowly than the overall economy. In recent years, however, losses have been growing faster than premiums. Since 2020, premiums fell 13 percent, while losses rose 15 percent. And, after 2019, severity increased dramatically, with the compound annual increase holding 3.0 percent from 2013 to 2019, then tripling to 9.2 percent compounded annually. 

 
The double whammy of economic inflation and social inflation 

The report describes the nuanced findings of personal and commercial auto liability –understandably different as these markets differ in many aspects, including size and risk factors. The analysis reveals some trends in common, however. Findings in commercial and personal auto liability indicate that the overall accident rate (claim frequency) declined during the early pandemic years, yet the severity (size of losses) increased more dramatically.  

The earliest study in this series looked at insurance trends through the end of 2019, focusing on loss development factors (LDFs). Since economic inflation was stable, but LDFs were increasing steadily during that time, the researchers concluded that economic inflation was likely not the cause of rising costs. Then, beginning in 2021, a sizable uptick in the CPI-All Urban signaled a rise in overall economic inflation.  

The resulting implications for underlying insurer costs can be observed in factors that impact claim payouts, such as replacement costs. The report states that since 2008, replacement costs for commercial and personal auto insurance have outpaced overall prices in the economy by 40 percent. Since 2019, these costs have risen almost three times faster than prices overall. Thus, for the years prior, researchers continue to attribute the bulk of losses for both lines primarily to social inflation but propose that social inflation and increasing overall economic inflation share the credit beginning in 2020. 

Triple-I plans to continue to foster a research-based conversation around social inflation. For an overview of the topic and other helpful resources about its potential impact on insurers, policyholders, and the economy, check out our knowledge hub, Social inflation: hard to measure, important to understand.  

Insurance Industry

National Black Business Month – Dale Sharpe Jenkins, M.S., CIC, AINS, Owner, The Jenkins Agency Incorporated, Celebrates 25 Years in Business

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By Kris Maccini, Head of Digital Distribution, Triple-I

Dale Sharpe Jenkins, M.S., CIC, AINS, principal/owner, The Jenkins Agency Incorporated, is quick to point out that she didn’t choose a career in insurance – insurance chose her. A first-generation college graduate, Jenkins sought a profession that would provide her and her family with opportunities. She began her career in life insurance at a small company in Columbus, Ohio before moving on to Progressive Insurance and opening its first claims office in Phoenix, Arizona. 

“Insurance plays an important role in our lives. The insurance industry has allowed me to make a great living and help people with their needs at the same time.” 

Eventually, Jenkins moved into a senior construction underwriter position at St. Paul Insurance Companies (now Travelers) and made the shift from claims to underwriting. While it was a rewarding position, Jenkins started a family and wanted more flexibility in her career. In 1998, she leveraged her experience in construction to build The Jenkins Agency Incorporated, an independent agency based in Arlington, Texas, specializing in commercial underwriting for construction, religious organizations, and other non-profits. 

“We write property/casualty, life, health, and group benefits. Most of our customers are small Black-owned businesses, and we are minority certified. I’m proud of what our agency has been able to do for the Black business community. Their success is our success.” 

Diversity has been at the epicenter of Jenkins’ career. The Dallas Black Chamber has recognized the agency for its work in the Black community; the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Airport named The Jenkins Agency Incorporated as its Diversity Champion of 2023 at the SOAR Awards this year; and Business Insurance Magazine has also acknowledged the agency for its diversity efforts.  

In 2008, Jenkins joined the National African American Insurance Association (NAAIA), where she was a member of the founding Board of Directors and served as president of the Dallas chapter for three years. Since 2011, the NAAIA DFW Scholarship Foundation has provided financial awards to high school and college students interested in careers in insurance, finance, and marketing. 

“I’m very focused on providing [insurance] industry awareness to young people starting out or trying to discover a career for themselves. I was on the receiving end early in my career, and it’s nice to give back now.” 

The Jenkins Agency Incorporated celebrates its 25th anniversary this year. Reflecting on the past two decades, Jenkins feels blessed to be in her current position. She founded her company on her own without a book of business and built it from the ground up, relying on referrals. Her husband, Jeff, joined the business in 2000. 

“In the early years, we were in survival mode. We realized if we could make it to five years, we could make it to 10. Hiring our first employees was a highlight, and most of them have been with us for over a decade.” 

Like every small business, The Jenkins Agency experienced challenges in its initial years. Jenkins remembers the difficult transition from working in a large company to running her own business and maintaining a work/life balance. 

“Whether working for yourself or others, flexibility is very important when you are working and raising a family. Having my own business granted me that flexibility. I was able to work around my daughters’ schedules and still manage responsibilities at the office. Having your own business doesn’t mean you work less; in my experience, you work more but with the advantage is being able to manage your day.” 

To this day, Jenkins cites her two daughters as inspiration, along with other up-and-coming professionals. Both of her daughters have successful careers–her youngest daughter as a risk manager for a municipality in Texas and her oldest daughter as a business owner in California and a college professor. Entrepreneurship runs in the family. Jenkins’ father was also a business owner.  

Jenkins, who teaches risk management at the University of Texas in Arlington, is also motivated by her students. “My inspiration comes from the younger generation and how they embrace diversity and balance work and home. I’m also impressed with their talent.” 

Regarding the ongoing efforts to push for diversity, equity, and inclusion in the industry, Jenkins is cheering on this generation and asks young Black professionals not to lose ground.  

“My generation had to maneuver in a different way. We tried to fit in in any way we could–from hair to speech. This generation has a voice, and they are not afraid to be heard. To them I say…Keep your skills sharp so there is no question whether you can do the job and be proud of who you are.” 

Looking to participate in discussions around addressing disparities and working towards a more inclusive and equitable insurance landscape? Sign up for Empowering the Community: The Importance of Insurance in the Black Community, hosted on September 12 by The Black Insurance Industry Collective (BIIC).

Dale Sharpe Jenkins, M.S., CIC, AINS is an academic member of the Insurance Information Institute through her affiliation with the University of Texas at Arlington. 

Cyber Risk

New U.S. Cyber Strategy Heralds Major Shift for Addressing Attacks

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer

A maturing Internet of Things (IoT) calls for measures to increase cybersecurity at the national, international, and private sector levels, according to a recent report by the White House.  

The new National Cybersecurity Strategy comes as cyberattacks continue to wreak havoc across the world, causing billions of dollars in damages. Furthermore, autocratic states such as China, Russia, and North Korea have ramped up aggressive cyber abilities to disrupt other nations’ interests and “broadly accepted international norms.”  

Key Takeaways 

The White House report aims to “build and enhance collaboration” for cybersecurity around five main tenets: 

  1. Defending critical infrastructure, involving mandatory requirements for cybersecurity, as the marketplace insufficiently rewards and even hinders who invest in measures to protect against cyberattacks. 
  1. Disrupting and dismantling threat actors, including diplomatic, military, and law enforcement measures to negate these attacks. 
  1. Shaping market forces to drive security and resilience through driving adoption of best practices in cybersecurity and resilience, utilizing the market to enhance capabilities. 
  1. Investing in a resilient future by engaging strategic public interests involving innovation, R&D, and education to ensure U.S. leadership in these areas. 
  1. Forging international partnerships to pursue shared goals through working with international institutions to identify and progress state behavior in cyberspace, including building peacetime norms and confidence-building measures through the U.N.  

Reimaging collaboration as partnerships and investment 

 According to the report, adhering to these principles require two fundamental changes in how the U.S. “allocates roles, responsibilities, and resources in cyberspace.” 

The first shift involves rebalancing the responsibility to defend cyberspace. The report states that end users are often tasked with far too much responsibility for lowering cyber risks. With small businesses, state and local governments possessing limited resources, a single individual’s failure to judge these risks can have national security consequences—which must be rectified. 

With this in mind, the report states that the government must protect its systems, while safeguarding private entities, particularly critical infrastructure. Further, “core government functions” like diplomacy, intelligence, imposing economics costs, law enforcement, and interrupting cyber threats are all essential to counteracting the threat of cyberattacks.    

The second shift involves realigning incentives to favor long-term investments. This entails defending current systems, while simultaneously advancing a digital ecosystem that is more defensible and resilient. This includes rewarding security and resilience with market forces and public programs, embracing designed security and resilience, and investing in research and development for cybersecurity in a strategic manner.  

While the implementation of these strategies is complex, the National Security Council (NSC), alongside the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), will lead efforts to implement a cohesive strategy, reviewing existing policy and assessing the need for new policy. The Federal Government will also use a data-driven approach to evaluate its efficacy, a much-needed move as cyberattacks continue to threaten the safety and economy of nations around the world.  

Rising cybercrimes create risks for insurers and consumers 

In 2022, 1,802 data compromises affected approximately 422 million people, according to a report by the Identity Theft Resource Center. Although data compromises remained even from 2021, the number of overall breaches has continued to rise. Additionally, losses continue to rise from cybercrime complaints, resulting in 10.3 billion in damages in 2022, according to the Internet Crime Complaint Center.  

As these issues present major problems for consumers, the global cyber insurance market continues to grow, with an estimated reach of over 91.22 billion by 2031. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 23.78 percent from 2023 to 2031. 

This market poses challenges and opportunities for insurers, as more cyber security professionals are needed to examine and prevent these threats. These risks can be addressed through training in cyber intelligence – but it will take significant investment to achieve this market’s expansion.  

Read more: 

Cyber liability risks | III 

Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment, Market Conditions, Regulation

U.S. Study of 3rd-party litigation funding cites market growth and scarce transparency

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At the end of 2022, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report, Third-Party Litigation Financing: Market Characteristics, Data and Trends. Defining third-party litigation financing or funding (TPLF) as “an arrangement in which a funder who is not a party to the lawsuit agrees to help fund it,” the investigative arm of Congress looked at the global multibillion-dollar industry, which is raising concerns among insurers and some lawmakers.  

The GAO findings summarize emerging trends, challenges for market participants, and the regulatory landscape, primarily focusing on the years between 2017 and 2021. 

Why a regulatory lens on TPLF is important 

The agency conducted this research to study gaps in public information about the industry’s practices and examine transparency and disclosure concerns. Three Republican Congress members – Sen. Chuck Grassley (IA), Rep. Andy Barr (KY), and Rep. Darrell Issa (CA) — led the call for this undertaking.  

However, as GAO exists to serve the entire Congress, it is expected to be independent and nonpartisan in its work. While insurers, TPLF insiders, and other stakeholders, including Triple-I, have researched the industry (to the extent that research on such a secretive industry is possible), the legislative-based agency is well positioned to apply a regulatory perspective.  

Example of Third-Party Litigation Financing for Plaintiffs

The report methodology involved several components, many of which other researchers have applied, such as analysis of publicly available industry data, reviews of existing scholarship, legislation, and court rules. GAO probed further by convening a roundtable of 12 experts “selected to represent a mix of reviews and professional fields, among other factors,” and interviewing litigation funders and industry stakeholders. Nonetheless, like researchers before them, GAO faced a lack of public data on the industry.  

Third-party litigation funding practices differ between the consumer and the commercial markets. Comparatively smaller loan amounts are at play for consumer cases. The types of clients, use of funds, and financial arrangements can also vary, even within each market.  

While most published discussions of TPLF center on TPLF going to plaintiffs, as this appears from public data to be the norm, GAO findings indicate: 1) funders may finance defendants in certain scenarios and 2) lawyers may use TPLF to support their work for defense and plaintiff clients.

How the lack of transparency in TPLF can create risks 

Overall, TPLF is categorized as a non-recourse loan because if the funded party loses the lawsuit or does not receive a monetary settlement, the loan does not have to be repaid. If the financed party wins the case or receives a monetary settlement, the profit comes from a relatively high interest payment or some agreed value above the original loan. Thus, the financial strategy boils down to someone gambling on the outcome of a claim or lawsuit with the expressed intention of making a hefty profit.  

In some deals, these returns can soar as high as 220%–depending on the financial arrangements–with most reporting placing the average rates at 25-30 percent (versus average S&P 500 return since 1957 of 10.15 percent). The New Times documented that the TPLF industry is reaping as much as 33 percent from some of the most vulnerable in society, wrongly imprisoned people.

Usually, this speculative investor has no relationship to the civil litigation and, therefore, would not otherwise be involved with the case. However, the court and the opposing party of the lawsuit are typically unaware of the investment or even the existence of such an arrangement. On the other hand, as the GAO report affirms, knowledge about the defendant’s insurance may be one of the primary reasons third-party financers decide to invest in the lawsuit. This imbalance in communication and the overall lack of transparency spark worries for TPLF critics. GAO gathered information that highlighted some potential concerns. 

Funded claimants may hold out for larger settlements simply because the funders’ fee (usually the loan repayment, plus high interest) erodes the claimant’s share of the settlement. Attorneys receiving TPLF may be more willing to draw out litigation further than they would have – perhaps in dedication to a weak cause or a desire to try out novel legal tactics – if they had to carry their own expenses.  

Regardless, typically neither the court, the defendant, nor the defendant’s insurer would be aware of the factors behind such costly delays, so they would be unable to respond proactively. However, insurance consumers would ultimately pay the price via higher rates or no access to affordable insurance if an insurer leaves the local market. 

As the report acknowledges, a lack of transparency can lead to other issues, too. If the court does not know about a TPLF arrangement, potential conflicts of interest cannot be flagged and monitored. Some critics calling for transparency have cited potential national security risks, such as the possibility of funders backed by foreign governments using the funding relationship to strategically impact litigation outcomes or co-opting the discovery process for access to intellectual property information that would otherwise be best kept away from their eyes for national security reasons. 

Calls for TPLF Legislation 

GAO findings from its comparative review of international markets reveal that the industry operates globally, essentially without much regulation. The report points out that while TPLF is not specifically regulated under U.S. federal law, some aspects of the industry and funder operations may fall under the purview of the SEC, particularly if funders have registered securities on a national securities exchange. Some states have passed laws regulating interest charged to consumers, and, in rarer instances, requiring a level of TPLF disclosure in prescribed circumstances.  

Active, visible calls from elected officials for regulatory actions toward transparency come mostly from Republicans, but, nonetheless, from various levels of government. Sen. Grassley and Rep. Issa have tried to introduce legislation, The Litigation Funding Transparency Act of 2021, requiring mandatory disclosure of funding agreements in federal class action lawsuits and in federal multidistrict litigation proceedings. In December of 2022, Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr spearheaded a coalition of 14 state attorney generals that issued a written call to action to the Department of Justice and Attorney General Merrick Garland.  

“By funding lawsuits that target specific sectors or businesses, foreign adversaries could weaponize our courts to effectively undermine our nation’s interests,” Carr said. 

Triple-I continues to research social inflation, and we study TPLF as a potential driver of insurance costs. To learn more about third-party litigation funding and its implication for access to affordable insurance, read Triple-I’s white paper, What is third-party litigation funding and how does it affect insurance pricing and affordability?