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Business Insurance, Workers Compensation

NCCI AIS 2025: Key Insights on Workers Comp

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William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

Economic uncertainty, industry-specific trends, and evolving risks were the focus of the NCCI Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) 2025 – a key event for the workers compensation industry.

In her introduction, Tracy Ryan, NCCI president and CEO, highlighted the importance of data in improving worker safety and outcomes in the face of economic uncertainty, workforce changes, and technological advancements.

“Workers compensation is a product where compassion and analytics work hand-in-hand —protecting and caring for employees, while also leveraging data to make the entire system more effective and sustainable,” Ryan said.

Continued strong results

Workers comp remains financially fit, according to NCCI Chief Actuary Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA.

“The workers compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line,” Glenn said. “And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges.”

Key Findings

  • Premium: Workers compensation net written premium decreased by 3.2 points in 2024. This is attributed to decreases in rates outpacing payroll growth, including a 9.2-point decline in 2024 bureau loss costs.
  • Profitability: The 2024 calendar year combined ratio for workers comp private carriers remained strong at 86 alongside a 2024 accident-year combined ratio of 99.
  • Reserves: NCCI estimates a redundant industry reserve position of $16 billion.
  • Claim Trends:
    • Lost-time claim frequency declined by 5 points in 2024, which is a faster pace than the long-term average of -3.6 points from 2004 to 2023.
    • Both medical and indemnity claim severity increased by 6 points in 2024.

Economic Uncertainty

Stephen Cooper, NCCI’s executive director and senior economist, noted that GDP declined in the first quarter of 2025, and there are concerns about stagflation.

“With economic uncertainty elevated and recession concerns resurfacing, consumer behavior will be important to watch,” Cooper said. “While employment has been concentrated amongst fewer industries, the labor market has shown resilience and strong payroll growth in workers compensation.”

He also addressed the potential impact of tariffs on workers compensation costs, with direct impacts on both the costs of medical supplies and drugs.

Industry-Specific Trends

Sandra Kipust, FCAS, NCCI senior practice leader and actuary, explored how workers compensation trends vary across different industries focusing on the following four sections:

  • Combined Office: The shift to remote work in 2020 led to a decline in claim frequency among office workers and remains low for those who have continued to work remotely.
  • Health Care: Despite pandemic disruptions, health care claim frequency (excluding COVID-19 claims) generally declined from 2015 to 2023, driven by a near 30 percentage point reduction in strain-related injuries.
  • Leisure & Hospitality: Restaurant claim frequency declined in 2022 and 2023, potentially due to increased automation.
  • Education: Claim frequency in private education has risen, primarily driven by “struck or injured by” injuries, potentially resulting from workplace violence in the industry.

“While the overall frequency of workers compensation claims continues its long-term decline, industry-specific patterns present a varied picture,” Kipust said. “Workers and workplaces are safer today than ever; yet, understanding the nuances at an industry level can uncover both opportunities and challenges within the system.”

Emerging Risks

The symposium also examined several evolving risk factors:

Medical Utilization: Raji Chadarevian, executive director for Actuarial Research at NCCI, reviewed a new NCCI-developed additive utilization metric to better understand utilization trends.

 “Having an additive utilization measure for medical services and commodities allows us to develop trends and produce price indices by state, book of business, and class of claims,” he explained. “The potential is really remarkable!”

Chadarevian provided an overview of changes in medical utilization, such as surgery rates and physical therapy utilization, significantly impact costs. These changes reflect a trend toward less invasive procedures and a greater emphasis on physical medicine.

Motor Vehicle Accidents: Brian Stein, FCAS, assistant actuary at NCCI, provided a review of motor vehicle accident claims.

“Motor vehicle accidents remain an area of concern and opportunity for the industry,” Stein said. “While over the last 10 years, frequency for these uniquely harmful and costly accidents has yet to show improvement aside from during the pandemic, there is evidence to suggest that recent advances in technology and a focus on safety can get more workers home safely at the end of their day.”

Motor vehicle accidents are the number one cause of workplace fatalities and are costlier than the average lost-time claim. While overall claim frequency declines, motor vehicle accident frequency has not shown the same improvement, though there are positive signs in the trucking industry, driven by new technology and regulations addressing driver fatigue and overall safety.

Pain Management: The decline in opioid prescriptions has led to a shift in pain management strategies, with increased utilization of physical therapy and topical treatments. This shift aims to provide more holistic care and address the underlying causes of pain, rather than solely relying on medication.

Jon Sinclair, FCAS, director and actuary at NCCI, explained, “New NCCI research shows that opioid use in workers compensation has declined nearly 75 percentage points since 2012. Increasing utilization of physical therapy and non-opioid drugs reveal a shift to a more holistic approach that treats the whole person—not just the pain.”

For additional content on Workers Comp insurance, please visit the Insurance Information Institute and read our latest issues brief on Workers Comp, as well as our full report.

Catastrophes, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Lightning, Wildfire

Triple-I Brief Highlights Wildfire Risk Complexity

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Wildfire risk is strongly conditioned by geographic considerations that vary widely among and within states. The latest Triple-I Issues Brief shows how that fact played out in 2024 and early this year and discusses the importance of granular local data for underwriting and pricing insurance in wildfire-prone areas, as well as for much-needed investment in resilience.

The 2024 wildfire season in the South and Southwest was particularly severe, marked by such events as the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle fires in February and March and significant blazes in Arizona and New Mexico. The Southwest accounted for the largest number of residential structures destroyed by wildfire, and three of the top five areas for homes destroyed were in the South. 

California accounted for the largest number of homes at risk for extreme wildfires. In the first half, the state experienced an above-average number of fires, though most were contained before growing to “major incident” size. Subsequent rains suppressed subsequent wildfire conditions – and caused substantial flooding. 

But this rain contributed to an accumulation of fuels so that, when hurricane-force Santa Ana winds whipped through Los Angeles County in early January 2025, the conditions were right for fast-moving blazes to tear through Pacific Palisades and Eaton Canyon.

Temperature, humidity, wind, and topography vary too widely for a single “one size fits all” mitigation approach. This underscores the importance of granular data gathering and scrupulous analysis when underwriting and pricing insurance.  It is also important that insurers proactively engage with diverse stakeholder groups to promote investment in mitigation and resilience.

A recent paper by Triple-I and Guidewire – a provider of software solutions to the insurance industry – uses case studies from three California areas with very different geographic and demographic characteristics to go deeper into how such tools can be used to identify properties with attractive risk properties, despite their location in wildfire-prone areas.

Learn More:

Getting Granular to Find Lower-Risk Properties Amid Wildfire Perils

P&C Insurance Achieves Best Results Since 2013; Wildfire Losses, Tariffs Threaten 2025 Prospects

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Business Risk, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Wildfire

P&C Insurance Achieves Best Results Since 2013; Wildfire Losses, Tariffs Threaten 2025 Prospects

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The U.S. P&C insurance industry’s financial outcomes for 2024 revealed a net combined ratio (NCR) of 96.6, demonstrating a substantial 5.1-point enhancement compared to the prior year and representing the sector’s most favorable underwriting performance since 2013, as detailed in a recent report by Triple-I and Milliman.

However, this progress faces potential impediments. The economic repercussions from early 2025 California wildfire losses, in conjunction with the unfolding influence of tariff policies, introduce factors that could dampen the industry’s performance throughout 2025 and possibly counterbalance the recent positive trajectory.

Noteworthy 2024 performance indicators:

  • The disparity in profitability between personal and commercial lines diminished, with both segments achieving an NCR below 100 for the year.
  • Personal auto insurers reported a 2024 NCR of 95.3, marking a considerable 9.6-point year-over-year improvement. This advancement was largely attributable to robust net written premium (NWP) expansion, with growth rates of 14.4 percent in 2023 and 12.8 percent in 2024.
  • Homeowners’ insurance experienced an 11.2-point improvement from 2023, as reflected in a 2024 NCR of 99.7. This represents the first instance of an NCR below 100 since 2019. Furthermore, the NWP growth rate reached 13.6 percent, surpassing the 12.4 percent growth observed in 2023 and achieving the highest level in over 15 years.

Impending challenges and market pressures:

  • The general liability segment is encountering increased financial strain, as evidenced by the least favorable NCR since 2016 and the third worst since 2010.
  • Early forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 suggest that the P&C industry may face its most challenging first-quarter results in over 15 years due to the extensive losses from the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.
  • The imposition of tariffs, effective as of early May 2025, is beginning to exert pressure on fundamental growth metrics and is contributing to the escalation of replacement costs across various insurance lines, initially with personal auto, and subsequently affecting homeowners and renters, commercial auto, and commercial property.  

Economic dynamics and trends

Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, pointed out that P&C underlying economic growth in 2025 has doubled the growth of the U.S. GDP, with the former at 5 percent and the latter at 2.5 percent year-over-year.  

In addition, it is anticipated that P&C replacement costs will not increase as quickly as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with projected rates of 1.0 percent, compared to 2.0 percent year over year.  

However, Léonard offered a cautionary perspective, stating, “While P&C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy—with stronger growth and lower replacement cost inflation—we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs”.  

He further elaborated on the potential adverse effects of tariffs: “These headwinds are expected to slow the sector’s momentum, potentially leading to a contraction later in the year that could exceed the overall GDP slowdown. Additionally, replacement costs, initially projected to rise more slowly than CPI, may accelerate and begin to outpace it, adding further pressure. Even though rising costs may lead to additional premium increases, these will likely be insufficient to offset slowing consumer spending and corporate investment.”

He explained how the timing of tariff impacts is staggered due to inventory management behavior, with the full effect of current tariffs yet to be realized.

Underwriting context and projections

Dale Porfilio, Chief Insurance Officer at Triple-I, attributes the notable 2024 turnaround in personal lines to the hard market conditions that allowed for necessary premium adjustments, rather than a decrease in incurred losses, which remained nearly flat. However, some upward pressure on the combined ratio is expected for 2025, reflecting tariff impacts and increased acquisition expenses. A deeper look into personal auto trends reveals that physical damage loss ratios have been improving rapidly, while liability coverage improvements have plateaued, raising concerns about legal system abuse and liability coverage responsiveness.

Homeowners’ insurance improvements were also driven primarily by premium increases, though a 2.5 percent decrease in net incurred losses, mainly from catastrophes, contributed. However, the 2025 outlook for homeowners is heavily influenced by the Los Angeles wildfires, with projections indicating that Q1 2025 could be the worst first quarter for the P&C industry in over 15 years. Current estimates suggest that the 2025 wildfires may lead to the costliest wildfire losses in U.S. history.

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, emphasized the persistent negative influence of adverse prior year development (PYD) on the profitability of commercial auto and general liability lines, noting that this trend has been observed for three consecutive years.  

In discussing general liability, Kurtz pointed out the substantial reserve strengthening undertaken during 2024.

“The 2024 net combined ratio of 110 included a staggering nine points of adverse prior year development, amounting to more than $9 billion of reserve strengthening, the highest seen in at least 15 years,” Kurtz said. “It is also concerning that the hard-market years 2020-2023, which saw significant rate increases, are also seeing reserve increases.”  

Conversely, workers compensation combined ratios continued to benefit from favorable PYD for the eighth consecutive year, indicating sustained underwriting profitability.  

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), presented an overview of the year’s average loss cost level changes and provided insights into the long-term financial stability of the workers compensation system.  

“The workers compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line,” said Glenn. “And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges.”  

*Note: Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View is a quarterly report available exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers.

Business Risk, Careers and Employment, Insurance Industry, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Risk Management, Specialty Coverage

Hartford’s Karla Scott on the Present & Future of Marine Insurance

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By Loretta L. Worters, Vice President of Media Relations, Triple-I

When Karla Scott first entered the insurance industry, she didn’t set out with a grand plan to become a leader in marine underwriting.

“I fell into it,” she admits. Starting at a brokerage firm focused on logistics insurance, she quickly discovered a passion for global trade and cargo underwriting.

“It’s different every day,” says Scott, who is global logistics product leader and senior managing director, Ocean Marine, The Hartford. She joined the company after The Hartford acquired Navigators in 2019.

“The technical work keeps my skills sharp, while the camaraderie and shared purpose offer personal and professional fulfillment.”

– Karla Scott

Scott works with clients, agents, and brokers around the world to ensure that businesses have the protection they need through the product’s entire supply-chain life cycle. Her team insures raw materials and finished goods that are transported on containerships, planes, trains, and trucks.  From geopolitics to commodity shifts, it’s an ever-evolving, complex industry that demands constant awareness and adaptation.

Now, with 24 years in marine insurance, Scott reflects on a career shaped by resilience, strong mentorship, and a deep commitment to community. Her journey underscores both the opportunities and challenges faced by women in a traditionally male-dominated field.

“Disrupting trade with…China, Canada, or Mexico would affect cost and the availability of insurance coverage.”

– Karla Scott

A Sea Change for Women

“Fifteen years ago, I sat at a table with 35 industry leaders and was the only woman,” Scott says. “But progress is happening. While marine insurance remains a niche within the broader insurance world, more women are entering the field and rising into leadership roles.”

There continues to be a gender pay gap and lack of career advancement opportunities, but Scott says “part of the reason, frankly, is that women tend not to self-advocate. It’s critical in the marine insurance space to promote yourself, but women often feel uncomfortable doing that.  Self-advocacy is not boastfulness. No one is going to put you in the spotlight unless you step into it.  Those are the skills we need to teach women coming up in this business.”

Being a woman on the West Coast in an East Coast-dominated industry meant navigating additional hurdles.

“There’s a current you swim against,” she says.

Overcoming Barriers

Support from forward-thinking male mentors and advisors helped her stay the course.

“I am indebted to three mentors who presented different strengths,” Scott says. “I learned how to manage people, to motivate people, technical skills, how important your reputation is in this industry, and how to push hard and be aggressive in certain situations and not aggressive in other situations.”

She also candidly addresses the internal battles many women face — imposter syndrome.

“I’ve experienced it myself and have reached out to my mentors, who are great at listening to my frustrations,” she says. “Having a strong network can help you work through those issues. Now that I’m on the other side, I’m pushing my mentees through those obstacles, helping them find their voice and teaching them to self-advocate—skills critical to closing the gender pay gap.”

The Power of Community

Scott’s involvement with the American Institute of Marine Underwriters (AIMU) and the Board of Marine Underwriters in San Francisco has been instrumental in her career. She has served as president of the latter twice and speaks passionately about the importance of collaboration in the insurance industry.

“One of the most unique parts of marine insurance is that we work in partnership with competitors to solve industry problems,” she says. “The technical work keeps my skills sharp, while the camaraderie and shared purpose offer personal and professional fulfillment.”

Trade Tensions and Industry Impacts

As global trade faces increasing scrutiny and tariff battles, Scott is already seeing the effects.

“Clients are canceling freight contracts, and volumes are dropping,” she says. “The result means lower trade volume, higher valuation of goods, and potential inflationary cycles may hit consumers hard.”

She points out that the lack of federal stimulus (unlike during the pandemic) leaves little room for economic cushioning.

“It’s a ‘hold your breath’ kind of moment,” Scott says.

Cargo theft is another growing concern.

“It spikes when inflation rises,” Scott notes, pointing out how easy it has become to resell stolen goods on platforms like Amazon and eBay.

Talk of reshoring manufacturing often overlooks the complexity of global trade.

“You can’t flip a light switch and manufacture everything in the U.S.,” she explains. “Machinery to build those goods often comes from Germany or Japan.

“Disrupting trade with top partners like China, Canada, or Mexico would significantly affect both cost and the availability of insurance coverage,” Scott says. “If consumer confidence drops and trade volumes fall, insurance demand will, too.”

Scott also highlights a deeper economic risk: the potential erosion of the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global trade. “If that shifts, the American economy could face even greater challenges.”

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Technology, Wildfire

Data Granularity Key
to Finding Less Risky Parcels in Wildfire Areas

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As high-severity natural catastrophes – wildfires, floods, hurricanes, and others – become more frequent and more people move into riskier locales, insurance affordability and availability have become a challenge in many states.

Insurers underwrite and price coverage based on the risks they’re assuming, and rising premiums in these states have pushed more homeowners into residual market mechanisms, such as state-backed insurance pools or agencies. Reliance on these funds – which often provide more limited coverage at higher costs – is not sustainable in the long term.

To ensure market stability and continued insurance availability and affordability, insurers must leverage more granular and dynamic risk models that account for real-time environmental conditions, mitigation measures, and property-specific characteristics. A new paper by Triple-I and Guidewire – a provider of software solutions to the insurance industry – uses case studies from three California areas with very different geographic and demographic characteristics to show how such tools can be used to identify properties with attractive risk properties, despite their location in wildfire-prone areas.

California’s risk profile

In addition to its particular risk characteristics, California’s insurance challenge is exacerbated by a 1988 measure – Proposition 103 – that has constrained insurers’ ability to profitably insure property in the state. In a dynamically evolving risk environment that includes earthquakes, drought, wildfire, landslides, and damaging floods, regulatory interpretation of Proposition 103 has made it hard for some insurers to offer coverage in the state.

In some cases, this has led to insurers limiting or reducing their business in the state. With fewer private insurance options available, more Californians are resorting to the state’s FAIR Plan, which offers less coverage for a higher premium. For many, this “insurer of last resort” has become the insurer of first resort. This isn’t a tenable situation for the state or its policyholders. California’s insurance availability/affordability challenges will require a multi-pronged approach, and underlying every component is the need for granular, high-quality, reliable data.

Modeling based on granular data

Guidewire’s analysis, based on its HazardHub Wildfire Score, has shown that wildfire mitigation and home hardening can reduce wildfire damage by as much as 70 percent. But identifying less risky lots in such areas is no easy task.

“Every property being assessed for wildfire risk is unique,” the report says. “Therefore, it’s important to subject as many relevant variables as possible to analysis. For example, proximity of structures to fuel is important – but, to be more predictive, it helps to know more: What kind of fuel? Is there potential for a wind-driven event? Is the property on a hill? If so, is it north-facing?”

Guidewire’s model includes standard variables, such as slope, aspect, wildfire history, wind, and the amount of nearby vegetation. It also includes differentiators like vegetation type and fire-suppression success rate.

“The traditional approach to wildfire risk assessment has left many Californians without access to affordable property insurance coverage,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio. “Our research shows that with more detailed, property-level analysis, insurers can confidently offer coverage in areas previously deemed too risky.”

Important moves by California

California has taken steps to address regulatory obstacles to fair, actuarially sound insurance underwriting and pricing – most notably, the state’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, an ambitious plan released by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara in 2023 plan aimed at safeguarding the health of the insurance market while ensuring long-term sustainability. A key component of the plan is a requirement that insurers writing homeowners coverage in the state write no less than 85 percent of their statewide market share in areas identified by the commissioner as “under-marketed.”

Tightly focused, data-driven analysis using tools like the HazardHub Wildfire Score, can go a long way toward helping insurers meet those requirements by identifying less risky parcels in undermarketed areas.

“The Triple-I analysis highlights how next-generation tools and data can uncover lower-risk properties – even in high-risk areas – empowering insurers to expand coverage confidently and responsibly,” said Leo Tenenblat, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Data and Analytics at Guidewire.

Learn More:

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

California Risk/Regulatory Environment Highlights Role of Risk-Based Pricing

How Proposition 103 Worsens Risk Crisis in California

Auto Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

Florida Senate Rejects
Legal-Reform Challenge

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

The Florida House’s attempt to curtail recent legal system reforms met firm resistance from the state Senate this week, preserving the 2022 and 2023 legislation that stabilized the state’s property insurance market.

Aiming to reinstate one-way attorney fees in insurance litigation, the House added an amendment – originally part of a separate bill – to an unrelated Senate bill focused on creating legal protections for owners of former mining sites.

Filed by state Rep. Berny Jacques, the amendment would have restored Florida’s previous requirement for insurers to shoulder the insured’s legal costs, even if the insured’s jury award was only slightly higher than the settlement insurers offered. Current law stipulates that each side is responsible for their own fees.

Senate members refused to concur with the proposal and sent the bill back to the House, which can either remove Jacques’ amendment or let the entire bill die.

Insurers and policyholders benefit

Jacques’ amendment prompted instant criticism from industry leaders, notably Florida Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky, who sent an email warning the governor’s legislative affairs director that it would dismantle “hard-won progress” achieved by the 2022-2023 reforms, according to a report by the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

That progress includes the introduction of 12 new insurers into Florida’s property sector after a multi-year exodus and a 23 percent decrease in lawsuit filings year over year, Yaworsky wrote.

Proponents of Jacques’ amendment argued it would return balance to the legal system, which had overcorrected to favor insurance companies at the expense of consumers.

Yet, in 2019, Florida accounted for just over 8 percent of U.S. homeowners insurance claims, but more than 76 percent of U.S. property claim lawsuits, pushing premium rates up to three times the national average. Post-reform, in 2024, 40 percent of all insurers in the state filed for rate decreases, with average home insurance premiums down 5.6 percent at the start of this year.

Reversing these reforms would reinvigorate fraudulent and unnecessary lawsuits, increasing insurer costs and, consequently, premium rates. Dulce Suarez-Resnick, an insurance agent based in Miami, told the Sun Sentinel that supporters predicted reforms wouldn’t be felt for three years.

“We are two years in, and I’ve already seen a lot of impact,” Suarez-Resnick said. “The Legislature needs to be patient. We have one more year to go.”

Reforms expected to remain intact

Though Florida’s 2025 legislative session was extended, the House has little time to push for further changes to the reforms. Even if the Senate somehow acquiesces and passes the amended bill, it is unlikely to survive – Gov. Ron DeSantis has vowed to veto any bill targeting tort reform and publicly condemned the House’s efforts to roll it back.

And Florida isn’t alone: Georgia successfully passed its own comprehensive tort reform package last month, after plaintiffs’ attorneys began transferring their marketing tactics to the neighboring state. State government moves like these are essential to eradicating legal system abuse and protecting all stakeholders from rising costs.

Learn More:

What Florida’s Misguided Investigation Means for Georgia Tort Reform

Florida Bills Would Reverse Progress on Costly Legal System Abuse

Florida Reforms Bear Fruit as Premium Rates Stabilize 

Georgia Targets Legal System Abuse

How Georgia Might Learn From Florida Reforms

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy recently took to the Senate floor to call for restoration of FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, whose elimination the agency announced on April 4.

Established by Congress through the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018, the BRIC program has allocated more than $5 billion for investment in mitigation projects to reduce economic losses from floods, wildfires, and other disasters for hundreds of communities. Ending BRIC will cancel all applications from 2020-2023 and rescind more than $185 million in grants intended for Louisiana, leaving the 34 submitted and accepted projects funded by those grants in limbo.

Whereas the FEMA press release described BRIC as “wasteful and ineffective,” Cassidy identified “not doing the program and then having to rescue communities when the inevitable flood occurs – that is waste, because we could have prevented that from happening in the first place.”

Mitigation investment saves

Cassidy explained that flooding causes up to $496 billion in damages annually throughout the United States, adding that, “when we invest in levees and floodwalls, communities are protected when the storm hits, and we save billions on a recovery effort we never had to do.”

A 2024 study backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce supports this claim, which found that disaster mitigation investments save $13 in benefits for every dollar spent.

FEMA’s decision coincides with recovery efforts in Natchitoches, a small Louisiana city, after flash flooding inundated homes and downed power lines just weeks before. BRIC was set to fund improvements to the city’s backup generator system to pump out floodwater during severe weather.

Similarly, Lafourche Parish will lose $20 million to strengthen 16 miles of power lines, which Cassidy noted toppled “like dominos” during last year’s Hurricane Francine. Jefferson Parish residents displaced following Hurricane Ida in 2021 will lose the home elevation disaster grants they finally secured earlier this year.

“Louisiana was the third-largest recipient of BRIC’s most recent round of funding and is the largest recipient on a per capita basis,” Cassidy said. “Without BRIC, none of these projects would be possible.”

A national problem

Beyond Louisiana, Cassidy pointed to numerous states ravaged by severe storms so far this year, particularly inland communities where flooding is traditionally unexpected. At least 25 people died amid a severe weather outbreak across the southern and midwestern U.S. last month, underscoring a growing need for resiliency planning in non-coastal areas.

BRIC is one of many programs facing sudden termination under the Trump Administration. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia have filed a lawsuit demanding the federal government unfreeze essential funding, including BRIC grants. Though the administration is reportedly complying with a federal judge’s order blocking the freeze, the states involved claim funding remains inaccessible.

Louisiana has not joined the lawsuit, but Cassidy emphasized the congressional appropriation of the program and requested the fulfillment of preexisting BRIC applications. He argued that “to do anything other than use that money to fund flood mitigation projects is to thwart the will of Congress.”

As President Trump weighs disbanding FEMA entirely – even as FEMA responds to record-breaking numbers of billion-dollar disasters – it is imperative to recognize the vast co-beneficiary benefits of disaster resilience, and develop our partnerships across these stakeholder groups.

Learn More:

BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Undisclosed Flood Risks Spur Wave of State Laws

Tenfold Frequency Rise for Coastal Flooding Projected by 2050

Triple-I Brief Highlights Rising Inland Flood Risk

Hurricane Helene Highlights Inland Flood Protection Gap

Removing Incentives for Development From High-Risk Areas Boosts Flood Resilience

Executive Exchange: Using Advanced Tools to Drill Into Flood Risk

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience

Weather Balloons’ Role
in Readiness, Resilience

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The National Weather Service (NWS) – part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – recently announced that it was reducing the number of weather balloons it launches across the country, citing staffing shortages at 11 NWS locations.

The launch cuts followed NOAA’s announcement of hundreds of layoffs or voluntary resignations across the agency, including at the NWS, related to efforts by President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a press conference that about 650 NOAA employees were among those fired, and his former colleagues in the agency said they had been ordered to “identify another 1,029 positions” for termination.

Some of these suspensions – for example, in Omaha, Neb. – have been lifted. Two meteorologists are set to arrive from across the country to staff the Omaha office following lobbying from Rep. Mike Flood (R. – Neb).

However, the future of launches from the remaining 10 locations remains unclear.

What do weather ballons do?

Apart from occasionally being taken for extraterrestrial aircraft, weather balloons rarely attract public attention. Carrying a device called a “radiosonde”, they typically fly for a couple of hours – potentially reaching 100,000 feet – and are used for several purposes, from gathering data for weather prediction models and local forecasts to providing input for pollution and climate research.

“Weather balloon launches can be especially critical in severe storm situations,” said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a researcher at Colorado State University and a Triple-I non-resident scholar. “They give us detailed information on temperature, pressure, and humidity that can help us determine potential impacts from tornadoes and hail.”

In addition, Klotzbach said, before U.S. hurricane landfalls, “NWS offices will often coordinate additional weather balloon launches to provide critical data to weather forecast models that improve predictions of the hurricane’s track.”

“While satellite technology continues to improve and provides invaluable information that has dramatically improved forecasting ability over the past several decades, weather balloons still serve a vital role in helping to predict weather events,” Klotzbach said.  

Taken-for-granted resources highlighted

As with the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s recent termination of its Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) grant and loan program, the sudden and substantial downsizing of NOAA’s data-gathering and forecasting resources underscores the extent to which government agencies that operate below the public’s radar screen help society and industry take steps to avoid costly losses related to weather- and climate-related events.  

In the absence of reliable federal support, it’s more important than ever for families, communities, businesses, and other stakeholders to work together to mitigate risks and build resilience. The insurance industry is uniquely well positioned to support and advance these efforts.

Learn More:

BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

Claims Volume Up 36% in 2024; Climate, Costs, Litigation Drive Trend

Data Fuels the Assault on Climate-Related Risk

JIF 2024: Collective, Data-Driven Approaches Needed to Address Climate-Related Perils

Accurately Writing Flood Coverage Hinges on Diverse Data Sources

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Floods, Insurance News, Regulation

Undisclosed Flood Risks Spur Wave of State Laws

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Hurricane Helene flood damage in North Carolina

Source: Getty Images

New, alarming financial risks for homebuyers who are unaware of property flood histories has driven several states to implement new disclosure laws, helping protect consumers from unexpected costs after purchasing flood-prone homes, according to new research from Milliman.

Atmospheric conditions are intensifying flood risks across the U.S., with severe storms and rain events becoming more devastating and frequent. Despite this escalating threat, a significant regulatory gap has persisted: many states haven’t required home sellers to disclose previous flooding to potential buyers.

This omission creates a dangerous scenario where unsuspecting homebuyers invest their savings in properties with undisclosed flood histories.

As Joel Scata, senior attorney in the climate adaptation division at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), explains, “If a buyer doesn’t know the house is flood-prone, they don’t know they need to buy flood insurance. They don’t know they need to mitigate that risk, and that they could be in a really bad situation when the next flood happens.”

The issue became impossible to ignore in 2018 when Hurricane Florence inundated more than 74,000 buildings in North Carolina. At that time, sellers weren’t required to inform buyers about previous flooding, meaning hurricane-damaged homes could be cleaned up and sold without disclosure of this critical history. Since properties that have flooded once are likely to flood again, this lack of transparency created significant financial vulnerability for new homeowners, according to Milliman.

Quantifying the Financial Impact


To drive policy change, NRDC needed hard data quantifying the financial risks to homebuyers. They partnered with Milliman, where Larry Baeder, a senior data scientist, co-authored a study titled, “Estimating undisclosed flood risk in real estate transactions.”

Using catastrophe models, proprietary datasets, real estate transaction data, historical flood events and demographic patterns, Baeder analyzed the impact in three states with low marks on NRDC’s Flood Risk Disclosure Laws Scorecard: North Carolina, New York and New Jersey.

The findings revealed staggering financial disparities. In North Carolina, a home without flood history might face an average annual loss (AAL) of about $60. In contrast, a flood-prone property’s AAL jumped to approximately $1,200 — 20 times higher — and could exceed $2,000 based on future flood projections. Over 15 years, previously flooded North Carolina properties might require more than $18,000 in repairs.

The numbers were even more concerning in the Northeast. In New York, flood history could increase a property’s AAL from about $100 to $3,000. A previously flooded New Jersey home might incur $25,000 in damages over a 15-year period.

“These are big numbers, and they’re a scary reality that people are going to have to deal with,” Baeder noted. “If a homebuyer is taking on this risk, they should be aware of the risk.” Milliman’s research also found that more than 6% of all homes sold across these three states in 2021 had a record of flooding—with no requirement to warn new owners about this history.

Data-Driven Legislative Change


Armed with Milliman’s analysis, NRDC approached lawmakers with compelling evidence of the problem’s scale and impact.

“Before the report, I think legislators knew that people struggled to rebuild after a flood,” Scata said, “but I don’t think they realized just how much it costs a homeowner. These numbers helped lawmakers see this was a big problem, that their constituents were suffering, and that they should do something about it.”

The data-driven approach proved effective. In 2023, New Jersey began legally requiring sellers to disclose a property’s flood history. North Carolina and New York soon followed, with New York enacting disclosure requirements at the end of 2023 and North Carolina amending mandatory forms in 2024.

The impact extended beyond these three states. Four additional states — Florida, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont — independently adopted disclosure requirements in 2024 after recognizing the need demonstrated elsewhere.

“The laws show the power of data,” Scata noted. “Having Milliman do this work was really important for showing the actual impacts of flood damage on homeowners and effecting change through the legislatures.”

The momentum continues as Baeder now leads a follow-up study for NRDC expanding the research to 25 additional states with insufficient disclosure laws. Scata hopes to eventually see strong disclosure requirements nationwide, providing all homebuyers and renters with insight into their flood risk.

“If we’re going to tell people about lead-based paint,” Scata concludes, referring to other widespread real estate disclosures, “if we’re going to tell people about asbestos, we should probably tell people about flooding, because flooding has such an impact on someone’s finances and health.”

View the Milliman report here.

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ClimateTech Connect Confronts Climate Peril From Washington Stage

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The Institutes’ Pete Miller and Francis Bouchard of Marsh McLennan discuss how AI is transforming property/casualty insurance as the industry attacks the climate crisis.

“Climate” is not a popular word in Washington, D.C., today, so it would take a certain audacity to hold an event whose title prominently includes it in the heart of the U.S. Capitol.

And that’s exactly what ClimateTech Connect did last week.

For two days, expert panels at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center discussed climate-related risks – from flood, wind, and wildfire to extreme heat and cold – and the role of technology in mitigating and building resilience against them. Given the human and financial costs associated with climate risks, it was appropriate to see the property/casualty insurance industry strongly represented.

Peter Miller, CEO of The Institutes, was on hand to talk about the transformative power of AI for insurers, and Triple-I President and CEO Sean Kevelighan discussed – among other things – the collaborative work his organization and its insurance industry members are doing in partnership with governments, non-profits, and others to promote investment in climate resilience. Triple-I is an affiliate of the Institutes.

Sean Kevelighan of Triple-I and Denise Garth, Majesco’s chief strategy officer, discuss how to ensure equitable coverage against climate events.

You can get an idea of the scope and depth of these panels by looking at the agenda, which included titles like:

  • Building Climate-Resilient Futures: Innovations in Insurance, Finance, and Real Estate;
  • Fire, Flood, and Wind: Harnessing the Power of Advanced Data-Driven Technology for Climate Resilience;
  • The Role of Technology and Innovation to Advance Climate Resilience Across our Cities, States and Communities;
  • Pioneers of Parametric: Navigating Risks with Parametric Insurance Innovations;
  • Climate in the Crosshairs: How Reinsurers and Investors are Redefining Risk; and
  • Safeguarding Tomorrow: The Regulator’s Role in Climate Resilience.

As expected, the panels and “fireside chats” went deep into the role of technology; but the importance of partnership, collaboration, and investment across stakeholder groups was a dominant theme for all participants. Coming as the Trump Administration takes such steps as eliminating FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program; slashing budgets of federal entities like the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS); and revoking FEMA funding for communities still recovering from last year’s devastation from Hurricane Helene, these discussions were, to say the least, timely.

Helge Joergensen, co-founder and CEO of 7Analytics, talks about using granular data to assess and address flood risk.

In addition to the panels, the event featured a series of “Shark Tank”-style presentations by Insurtechs that got to pitch their products and services to the audience of approximately 500 attendees. A Triple-I member – Norway-based 7Analytics, a provider of granular flood and landslide data – won the competition.

Earth Day 2025 is a good time to recognize organizations that are working hard and investing in climate-risk mitigation and resilience – and to recommit to these efforts for the coming years. What better place to do so than walking distance from both the White House and the Capitol?

Learn More:

BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

Claims Volume Up 36% in 2024; Climate, Costs, Litigation Drive Trend

Data Fuels the Assault on Climate-Related Risk

Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk

JIF 2024: Collective, Data-Driven Approaches Needed to Address Climate-Related Perils

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