Severe convective storms—tornadoes, hail, drenching thunderstorms with lightning, and damaging straight-line winds—are among the biggest threats to life and property in the United States. They were the costliest natural catastrophes for insurers in 2019, and this year’s tornado season is already shaping up to be the worst in nearly a decade.
A new
Triple-I paper describes how population
growth, economic development, and possible changes in the geography, frequency,
and intensity of these storms contribute to significant insurance payouts. It
also examines how insurers, risk managers, individuals, and communities are
responding to mitigate the risks and improve resilience through:
Improved
forecasting,
Better
building standards,
Early
damage detection and remediation, and
Increased
risk sharing through wind and hail deductibles and parametric insurance
offerings.
The 2020 tornado season coincided with most of the U.S. economy shutting down over the coronavirus pandemic. This could affect emergency response and resilience now and going into the 2020 hurricane season, which already is being forecast as “above normal” in terms of the number of anticipated named storms.
Business interruption insurance and liability issues remain
on the front burners as governments begin gradually “reopening the economy” amid scary new
projections about the pandemic.
A measure that would make it
easier for small businesses in Washington, D.C. to claim coronavirus-related damages
under business interruption insurance policies is on hold after six of the 12
D.C. Council members raised concerns about its legality and the costs it could
impose on insurers.
Council Chairman Phil Mendelson
struck the language from a broader pandemic emergency bill to allow for more
debate. Councilman Charles
Allen had spearheaded the measure after many small
businesses have seen their insurers deny such claims.
The American Property
Casualty Insurance Association estimates local businesses
could claim losses of hundreds of millions of dollars each month.
“These numbers dwarf the
premiums for all relevant commercial property risks in the key insurance lines
for D.C., which are estimated at $16 million a month,” David Sampson, the
association’s president and CEO, wrote in a statement. “We oppose
constitutionally flawed legislation that retroactively rewrites insurance
contracts and threatens the stability of the sector, to the detriment of all
policyholders.”
Faced with 20,000 coronavirus
deaths and counting, the nation’s nursing homes are pushing back against a
potential flood of lawsuits with a sweeping lobbying effort to get states to
grant them emergency protection from claims of inadequate care.
The Associated Press reports that
at least 15 states have enacted laws or governors’ orders that explicitly or
apparently provide nursing homes and long-term care facilities some protection
from lawsuits arising from the crisis. And in the case of New York, which leads
the nation in deaths in such facilities, a lobbying group wrote the first draft
of a measure that apparently makes it the only state with specific protection
from both civil lawsuits and criminal prosecution.
Since people are driving less in the midst of COVID-19
related stay-at-home orders, many auto insurers have responded with premium
refunds totaling about $10 billion.
How are consumers reacting to these refunds? A May 5 webinar
co-hosted by Cambridge Mobile Telematics’ (CMT) VP of Insurance &
Government Affairs, Ryan McMahon, and J.D. Power’s VP of Insurance
Intelligence, Kyle Schmitt, shed light on this question.
J.D. Power has been conducting consumer sentiment surveys since March 24. Schmitt said that one key takeaway is that in light of pandemic related layoffs, customers are thinking pragmatically about auto insurance, so the timing of the premium relief announcements was excellent. However, it’s important to note that auto insurance is not top of mind for many consumers struggling to keep the lights on or food on the table, and not everyone is aware of refunds.
Here are a few other key takeaways:
McMahon noted that while miles travelled are
down, speeding and distraction both peaked in April based on CMT’s analysis,
and fatalities are up.
Schmitt said that changes in price stability
driven by broad market conditions (such as accident frequency) are not well
received by consumers who will shop around in response; in contrast to price
increases driven by a life event or an accident which consumers tend to take in
stride.
When it comes to telematics, value is key.
Consumers expect to continue to not drive as much in the foreseeable future and
are thinking about the cost savings offered by telematics programs, therefore
interest in telematics has spiked according J.D. Power surveys.
Of those that think their driving rates will
remain low 40 percent are interested in telematics.
The panelists were also asked to speculate about possible
increases in fraud, and McMahon said that fraud activity always comes with
economic reductions, however it’s possible that fraudulent claims may be easier
to spot because there are fewer claims.
When
you think of winemaking, you picture grapes on the vine and a hearty glass of
red on your table. But you probably don’t think of all the steps involved in
the production of wine and the fact that those grapes – and later, the finished
product – travel long distances to reach our palates.
That’s
where marine insurance comes in: to protect businesses along the supply chain
from the unexpected.
The
American Institute of Marine Underwriters (AIMU) drew a robust
crowd to its recent webinar, “From Vine to Wine and the Fire In Between,” where
participants learned of the risks associated with wine production and the
coverages that are designed to mitigate losses. The two-hour session is part of
AIMU’s extensive and popular educational series, and drew a crowd of
underwriters, claims experts and brokers from the ranks of marine insurers and
beyond.
“One
of the biggest roles we perform is education, and it’s not limited to our
members,” says John Miklus, President of AIMU. “Marine touches so many aspects
of business that there’s a real thirst for knowledge in the broader insurance
community and we try to quench that thirst.”
Pamela Schultz, Jonathan Thames and Erik Kowalewsky of Hinshaw & Culbertson opened by discussing the effects of the
2017 wildfires on the Napa and Sonoma wine growers and wineries, where 10
percent of the harvest was still on the vine when the fires started.
There
are nearly 20 steps involved in wine production, including include growing,
harvesting, fermenting, storage, barreling, aging, blending, bottling, labeling
and distributing. Each presents opportunities for things to go wrong.
Thames
explained that Stock Throughput is a form of marine coverage that insures goods
in all their physical states along the supply chain with the exception of damage
caused by the processes of turning the raw materials into the finished
products. He said policies are generally very broadly worded and cover all
risks.
Schultz
pointed out how marine insurance comes into play during shipment. Stock
Throughput policies are designed to cover supply chains and anything that moves
inventory against loss due to:
Extreme weather and
natural disasters can cause supply chain interruptions and even loss of product.
Transportation:
Obviously, wine has to get from the vineyard to the table and that table may be
anywhere in the world.
Trade
problems/disruption: This affects imports and exports, especially delays due to
current COVID-19 crisis.
Lack of Control: Products
are sometimes shipped long distances, and it’s difficult to know everything
about every link of the supply or travel chain.
Invaders: Yes, pests
have been known to get into wine and cause damage and so can fumigation.
CTL: Constructive Total
Loss becomes an issue if the wine is stolen. Most policies exclude consumption
of wine, but Schultz said that hasn’t stopped some insureds from trying to
claim it on that basis.
The
2017 California wildfires brought into focus the issue of smoke taint. The smoke
that lingers for weeks after the fires are extinguished can taint the grapes,
rendering a wine unpalatable, or worse, undrinkable.
Thames
noted that smoke taint claims don’t arise until after fermentation, after the
wine has been tasted, and the grower must prove damage with scientific evidence
and serve notice of potential loss within 60 days. However, he said there are
cost effective processes winemakers can put in place beforehand to mitigate the
effect.
The
presenters discussed the difference between crop insurance and whole farm
revenue protection, both of which offer only limited protection to the grower. Crop
insurance is not a 100 percent indemnity product; it only covers the grapes
pre-harvest, so there will always be a gap. Limits are based on past yields so it’s
difficult to expand limits in the first few years.
As a result of the 2017 fires in Oregon, one winemaker now requires
its growers to carry crop insurance and pays half the premium.
Whole
farm revenue protection insures against lost revenue, but doesn’t protect
particular crops as it is not a property policy. To make a claim on this policy
the insured must establish that farm revenue is down as a result of the winery
rejecting the grapes.
Participants
were invited to vote on their favorite wine, and the overwhelming choice was
Red, at 70 percent. White garnered 17 percent of the vote and Rose 12 percent.
“As much as we are living today with the unimaginable impact of COVID-19, we must remind residents along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to remember it takes only one hurricane or tropical storm to ravage communities and to shatter lives,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I. “During National Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-9), we encourage residents to take a moment to ensure you have adequate financial protection for your property and possessions while also taking steps to make your home or business is more resilient to wind and water. Since we are all needing to stay home more, it’s even more important to make ourselves more resilient to natural catastrophes like hurricanes.”
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.
Review Your Insurance Coverage Make sure you have the right type – and amount – of property insurance. The Triple-I recommends you conduct an annual insurance review of your policy(ies) with your insurance professional.
Standard homeowners insurance covers the structure of your house for disasters such as hurricanes and windstorms, along with a host of other disasters. It is important to understand the elements that might affect your insurance payout after a hurricane and adjust your policies accordingly.
At the very least, review the declarations page of your policy. This one-page information sheet offers details on how much coverage you have, your deductibles and insights into how a claim will be paid.
“You should ask your insurance professional if you have the right amount of insurance coverage to rebuild or repair your home, to replace its contents, and to cover temporary living expenses if your property is uninhabitable,” Kevelighan said. “You should also ask about flood insurance, which is separate and additional to traditional homeowners and small business insurance. Ninety percent of natural disasters involve flooding.”
Flood insurance, which is a separate policy from your property coverage, is offered through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and several private insurers.
Another common exclusion from a standard homeowners policy is sewer backup (also not covered by flood insurance). Backed up sewers can cause thousands of dollars of damage to floors, electrical systems, walls, furniture and other belongings. Sewer backup insurance is especially beneficial in hurricane-prone areas.
Protect Your Vehicles
Comprehensive auto, which is an optional coverage, protects your vehicle against theft and damage caused by an incident other than a collision, including fire, flood, vandalism, hail, falling rocks or trees, and other hazards.
Make Sure Your Possessions are Adequately Protected Imagine the cost of repurchasing all your furniture, clothing and other personal possessions after a hurricane. Whether you have homeowners insurance or renters insurance, your policy provides protection against loss or damage due to a hurricane. Creating an inventory of your belongings and their value will make it easy to see if you are sufficiently insured for either replacement cost or cash value of the items. When you create a photo or video catalog of your home’s possessions, it will also help expedite the insurance claims process if you sustain damage from a storm.
Make Your Property More Resilient Invest in items that will harden your property against wind damage, such as a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters. Triple-I also recommends you have your roof inspected annually by a licensed and bonded contractor to make sure it will hold up to high winds and torrential rains.
Preparing a hurricane emergency kit with a minimum two-week supply of essential items such as non-perishable food, drinking water and medications for every family member.
Creating an evacuation plan well before the first storm warnings are issued.
Tornadoes in
2020 claimed 73 lives as of April 24, according to this article citing NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
The tornadoes have all occurred in eight southern states, with Tennessee and
Mississippi having the most. This is the deadliest year for tornadoes in the
U.S. since 2011.
Forecasters had
predicted that above-average temperatures in the
Gulf of Mexico would lead to severe storms across the Deep South and Southeast,
with the risk expanding into the Southern Plains and increasing dramatically
before swallowing traditional “Tornado Alley” across the central United States
by May.
According to Aon Benfield, the United States has recorded five
billion-dollar economic loss events resulting from severe convective storms (which
include tornadoes) so far in 2020. Insured losses from a March 27-30 outbreak are
estimated at $1 billion.
While COVID-19
is causing changes in some business practices, the nation’s insurers are open
and helping customers who sustained tornado-related damage. Property damage
caused by tornadoes is covered under standard homeowners, renters, and business
insurance policies, and under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto
insurance policy.
The Triple-I
has these recommendations when property damage occurs for renters, home and
auto owners:
Contact
your insurance professional and start the claims filing process.
Take
photos of any damage. A photographic record is useful when making an insurance
claim.
Make
temporary repairs to prevent further loss from rain, wind or looting; these
costs are reimbursable under most policies, so save the receipts.
Compile
a detailed list of all damaged or destroyed personal property. Do not throw out damaged property until you
meet with an insurance adjuster. If you have a home inventory, it will make the
claims-filing process easier.
Hold
off on signing repair contracts. Do your due diligence, deal with reputable
contractors, and get references. Be sure of payment terms and consult your
insurance adjuster before signing any contracts.
Check
to see if you’re eligible for additional living expenses (ALE). Standard
homeowners and renters insurance policies pay for the extra charges (e.g.,
temporary housing, restaurant meals) you incur over and above your customary
living expenses if your home is uninhabitable because of an insured loss. Save
all related receipts and, if you have vacated your home, make sure your insurer
knows how to contact you.
Small
Business Owners should
follow the same advice as above when it comes to filing a property damage
claim.
If your
business is forced to close temporarily or relocate because of direct physical
damage to its premises, file either a business income (also known as business
interruption) or extra expense claim, if you carry these coverages.
Tornado
forecasting and reporting
An upcoming Triple-I paper – Severe convective storms: Evolving risks call for innovation to reduce costs, drive resilience, scheduled to be published May 7 – discusses how improved reporting and forecasting and an apparent shifts in “Tornado Alley” affect the ability of businesses, communities, and insurers to mitigate tornado risks and prepare for resilience.
By Kris Maccini, Director, Social Media, Insurance Information Institute
Triple-I
Employees Share Pet Adoption Stories
April 30 is
National Adopt a Shelter Pet Day–a day created to raise awareness for the
millions of animals waiting in shelters to find their forever homes.
According to
the Humane Society, 6-8 million animals enter shelters
in the US annually with 28 percent of dogs and 31 percent of cats completing
adoptions each year.
Several employees of the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) have also chosen to adopt rather than shop. These four-legged family members are an important part of our lives, and we’d like to share their stories with you in honor of #NationalAdoptAShelterPet day.
Name: Happy Age: 9 years old
Happy was adopted from a shelter in August 2010. He was the smallest and quietest dog of the bunch. His mom Katrina noticed his big brown eyes, big ears, and cotton bunny-like tail. It was love at first sight. Happy likes to go on walks and will take his leash to “walk himself” out the door. He’s very particular about his squeaky toys and filter water and will insert himself into conversations by “politely” barking.
Name: Mellie Age: 2 years old
Mellie was a rescue from a puppy mill and was unnamed when adopted by her family. Her dad Scott named her after his paternal grandmother. Mellie is a very curious dog who has a fascination with TV remotes–10 replaced and counting! She loves being around people and shares her home with her older fur brother Maxwell.
Name: Maxwell Age: 4 years
Maxwell was adopted at 10 weeks from a litter of 10 puppies. His dad adopted him from a rescue organization. Maxwell loves swimming, walking, running, visiting the dog park, and eating treats. He knows exactly where the biscuits are and how to train humans to get what he wants.
Name: Snickers Age: Almost 6 years old
Snickers was adopted by her family around 3 months. She officially turns 6 in June 2020. Snickers appears to be head of household keeping her human family and dog brother in line. No beasts are victorious under her neighborhood watch including birds, hornets, and wasps.
Name: Bauer Age: 8 years old
Bauer was a rescue from Nairobi, Kenya and moved to the US with his dad a year after his adoption in 2014. Bauer has a playful personality. He loves lining up his toys and stockpile of biscuits every night before he goes to bed. Bauer is big in size with an even bigger heart.
Name: Bandit Age: Almost 2 years
Bandit was adopted from a shelter at six months old. He was rescued from a private home in 2018 along with 100 other dogs. After nearly two years with his family, Bandit has settled into a routine – greeting his mom Rita when she comes homes from work and cuddling with his human brother before bed. His mom says that, although he was shy at first, Bandit’s found a respected place in his family and is affectionately referred to as the “King of the Castle.”
These are some of the stories of animals who have joined the Triple-I family. We hope these brought joy during these uncertain times. If you have recently adopted a pet, we have some resources available to answer questions on insurance, sheltering in place with your pet, dog bite prevention, and pet care.
As the federal and state governments discuss plans for “reopening
the economy,” it’s important to recognize and plan for the fact
that the impacts of the virus and our responses to it will be playing out for
some time to come.
Were auto insurers too quick to give back?
Despite record-low vehicle miles traveled, Digital
Insurance reports, severe and fatal
crashes in U.S. cities have increased since COVID-19. There have been more
speeding and more severe and deadly crashes than before the business shutdowns
and sheltering in place instituted in response to the pandemic.
In New York City, traffic volume decreased between 78% and 92%
compared to January, but there was a 57% increase in speeding violations in the 10 days following the governor’s stay at home
orders. And there were six deadly crashes from
March 2 to April 8, which is more deadly crashes than the same time period in
any of the previous five years.
Numbers like these suggest the auto insurers that have returned
more than $10 billion to policyholders
through premium relief – on the premise that fewer cars on the road would mean
fewer crashes and claims – might have acted prematurely.
A.I. to enforce social distance, limit liability
Reuters reports that stores and other workplaces eager to avoid spreading the virus that causes COVID-19 are equipping existing security cameras with artificial intelligence software that can track compliance with health guidelines including social distancingA. and mask-wearing.
The software will allow them to show not only
workers and customers, but also insurers and regulators, that they are
monitoring and enforcing safe practices.
“The last thing we want is for the governor to shut all our
projects down because no one is behaving,” said Jen Suerth, vice president at
Chicago-based Pepper Construction, which introduced software this month to
detect workers grouping at a project in Illinois.
How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect auto
insurers in the longer term? No one knows for sure, of course, but a new McKinsey
study provides a framework for considering the question.
Fewer people are driving due to business
closures and work-from-home practices. This could lead to fewer accidents and
claims – but evidence suggests severity of the claims generated may worsen. Speeding
has increased in several states – in some cases, leading to fatal accidents.
In the longer term, McKinsey suggests, the
pandemic could precipitate structural changes in the market for car insurance:
“Mobility trends may pause if more people choose to own a car and drive
everywhere because they think ride sharing and public transportation are too
risky…. Historically low oil prices will make driving much more affordable.”
On the other hand, if car purchases decrease
because of economic uncertainty and unemployment, insurance sales could decline,
hurting revenues. The industry already has returned
more than $10 billion to policyholders through premium
relief during the crisis, which also could affect insurers’ bottom lines.
Four scenarios
The McKinsey report lays out four scenarios to
help insurers think about how the economic impact may play out in the longer
term.
Pause and rebound. This scenario
supposes the economic slowdown will end rapidly and the rebound will occur as
quickly as the contraction. Consumers’ behavioral changes are assumed to be
limited. Drivers might be a bit more conservative after the shutdown,
exhibiting more caution, leading to fewer accidents which would help insurer
profitability.
“Pent-up demand, supply-chain innovation, and infrastructure
commitments would pull the economy to near pre-COVID-19 levels within weeks,”
McKinsey writes.
YOLO (You Only Live Once).
This scenario is defined by a rapid economic rebound but also more aggressive
driving behaviors: “Fueled by cheap gas and a disdain for shared mobility, the
roads and highways would become more crowded.”
Under
this scenario, McKinsey writes, accident
severity would continue to climb, putting pressure on insurers to raise rates.
The sudden drop in accident frequency during the pandemic, followed by a rapid
escalation, “could strain the accuracy of actuarial techniques and regulatory
expectations.”
Retrenchment. Difficulty managing
the virus and complications from the business shutdown lead to a lengthy
economic downturn: “As in the pause and rebound scenario….new behavioral norms
would result in less travel, redefine entertainment, and contribute to a more cautious
outlook on life.”
Favorable trends in claims frequency would continue, and claims
severity would moderate in line with the more conservative behaviors.
But, McKinsey writes, “consistent with economic conditions, a
surge would occur in the nonstandard market and state risk pools. Fraud would
also spike as a by-product of economic pressures.”
Insurers could face consumer and regulatory pressure to return more
premiums or reduce them further and expand coverage. Profitability would suffer.
Black swan. Worst case for
economic contraction and behavioral changes. New behavioral norms generate a YOLO outlook and compromise
policing capabilities. Accident frequency would rise sharply. Claims severity
would continue to climb.
“In addition,” McKinsey writes, “regulatory pressure could push
rates down further or force expanded coverage,” exacerbating worsening profitability.
McKinsey
analyzes the potential impact on auto insurers under each of these scenarios
and associates each with a projected combined ratio – the most frequently used
measure of insurer profitability.
Social media has been abuzz with posts suggesting life insurance claims related to COVID-19 are being summarily denied. Much of the anxiety seems to stem from a news story titled: Would my life insurance policy cover COVID-19 related death?
An anchor for the news organization that aired the piece shared it on Twitter below the tweet:
Will your life insurance cover you if you die from #COVID19?
Well, it depends.
The tweet is accurate enough. As it would be if the reference to COVID-19 was deleted. Or if the tweet referred to another form of insurance.
Claims sometimes are denied.
According to the American Council of Life Insurers 2019 Fact Book, life insurance death benefits paid in 2018 totaled nearly $80 billion, up from $77 billion in 2017. Steadily rising annual payouts like the ones shown in the chart below don’t suggest an industry that spends a great deal of time slithering through loopholes to avoid paying legitimate claims.
“Life insurance claims are rarely denied,” says Triple-I chief economist Dr. Steven Weisbart. “When they are, it’s typically because the policies had lapsed due to non-payment of premium or the policyholders had provided inaccurate or misleading information at the time of application or renewal.”
Even in the event of a material misstatement on a life insurance application – say, the applicant lied about a significant health issue – the insurer has to discover the misrepresentation within a defined “contestability period.”
If the policyholder dies within that period, which typically lasts two years from the date of purchase, Dr. Weisbart says, the insurer can investigate whether the information the applicant provided was accurate. If the policyholder dies after the contestability period ends, the insurer is out of luck.
Insurers don’t make money by rejecting claims. They make money by underwriting accurately, investing wisely, and making customers happy enough to recommend them to friends and family.
Compare the chart above, showing the billions of dollars in death benefits paid, with the chart below showing that contested claims are only a tiny fraction of those paid – and bear in mind that many, if not most, of those contested claims ultimately ended up being paid.
Regulated and closely watched
Insurance is one of the most heavily regulated and closely scrutinized industries in the world, and claims payment is at the heart of the insurance customer experience. Insurers don’t make money by rejecting claims. They make money by underwriting accurately, investing wisely, and – as with any other business – making customers happy enough to recommend them to their friends and family.
Unfortunately, many people – including much of the media – simply don’t understand how insurance works: how premiums are set, what types of risks are excluded (or that exclusions are even “a thing”), and how reserves and policyholder surplus work.
This is demonstrated in some of the contentious discussions around COVID-19-related business interruption claims. In the case of business interruption, most of the denied claims have been against policies that specifically exclude losses related to infectious disease. Moves are now afoot to retroactively rewrite those contracts – to the immediate detriment of the insurance industry and longer-term danger to the people and businesses that depend on insurance – as well as anyone who ever enters into any contract ever again.
I know of no life insurance policy that specifically excludes death from infectious disease. It’s possible some “dread disease” policies that cover specific conditions, such as cancer, might not be paid if COVID-19 – rather than the disease insured against – is deemed to be the cause of death. Or that a life claim might be denied if premium payments were missed or a policyholder smoked or engaged in some other activity associated with high coronavirus mortality that they’d denied on their application less than two years earlier.
So, yes: Some claims may be denied. But such denials are rare and – social media agitation notwithstanding – don’t imply nefarious behavior on the part of insurers.
Financial First Responders
As the economic impact of the pandemic makes it difficult for consumers to keep current on their bills, states have begun to mandate that life insurers keep policies in force, even if policyholders miss payments. At the same time, insurers – facing big financial hits across the many categories of risk they cover (including recent tornadoes and the upcoming hurricane and wildfire seasons) – are doing a lot to support their customers and the communities in which they do business during this crisis.
Insurers are financial first responders when it comes to just about any loss-creating event the average person might imagine. Media organizations would do their consumers a greater service by clarifying that role and helping them understand how best to shop for the insurance they need than by dropping scary, misleading tweets on an already anxiety-filled public.
