May is Disability Insurance Awareness Month, an occasion to raise awareness about this underutilized financial product, which is designed to safeguard your income in case you get sick or injured and are unable to work.
Disability insurance, also known as disability income insurance, complements health insurance and is meant to replace lost income and help protect you and your family from an otherwise financially catastrophic illness or injury.
Depending on where you have been employed, whether you’ve served in the military, and the reason you’re unable to work, there are a number of potential sources of disability income.
Employer-paid disability insurance is required in most states, and so is the most common. Most employers provide some short-term sick leave. Many larger employers provide short-term disability (STD) and long-term disability (LTD) coverage as well, typically with benefits of up to 60 percent of salary lasting from five years to age 65. In some cases, LTD insurance is extended for life. Disability benefits from employer-paid policies are subject to income tax.
When you buy a private disability income policy, you can expect to replace from 50 percent to 70 percent of income. When you pay the premiums yourself, disability benefits are not taxed.
Social Security disability benefits may be paid to workers whose disability is expected to last at least 12 months and is so severe that no gainful employment can be performed.
The Department of Veterans Affairs will provide some replacement income for veterans, depending on the nature and circumstances of the disability.
Auto insurance may cover some income loss under the personal injury protection (PIP) portion of the policy if the disability results from an auto accident. As always, this depends on the policy, the insurer, and the circumstances.
Disability insurance provides vital protection for most workers against events that are hard to contemplate. Securing this protection in the event of a serious illness or injury is just as important as insuring your home or car.
Click here to learn more about the types of disability coverage available.
Reintroducing wolves into areas where they’ve previously been decimated seems to reduce car crashes involving deer by nearly 25 percent.
Huh? What? Is this one of those “Correlation doesn’t equal causation” memes?
Not at all.
Scientists in Wisconsin have gathered data about road collisions and wolf movements in the state to quantify how the arrival of wolves affected the frequency of deer-auto collisions.
“In a pretty short period of time, once wolves colonize a county, deer vehicle collisions go down about 24 percent,” said Dominic Parker, a natural resources economist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison and co-author of their new study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
You might say, “Well, of course – wolves eat deer, fewer deer means fewer collisions.” But it’s a bit more subtle than that. The scientists found that reintroducing wolves created what scientists call “a landscape of fear.”
“When you have a major predator around, it impacts how the prey behave,” Parker said. “Wolves use linear features of a landscape as travel corridors, like roads, pipelines and stream beds. Deer learn this and can adapt by staying away.”
Just one study
Now, of course, this is just one study, and it’s not being embraced by everyone – for example, farmers and ranchers who don’t love the reintroduction of predators that might kill their livestock or add to the cost of protecting the animals they raise.
“People who value the existence of wolves are often not in the same communities where wolves are present,” said Jennifer Raynor, Parker’s colleague and co-author. “Urban wildlife lovers may be happy to know that wolves exist out there, but rural people have to stare at the carcasses of livestock and pets.”
Deer-vehicle collisions “are happening in both urban and rural areas,” Raynor said. “No one is avoiding this problem” – which means rural people are also benefiting from wolves, whether they realize it or not.
On average, 19,757 Wisconsinites collide with deer every year, leading to about 477 injuries and eight deaths. Wolves save the state $10.9 million in losses every year, the scientists determined —a figure 63 times greater than the total compensation paid for the loss of livestock or pets.
The average cost of an animal-strike claim under comprehensive coverage for 2001-14 models during calendar years 2004-13 was $2,730. That’s a hefty price but still lower than the average payout of $3,510 for a collision claim, the Highway Loss Data Institute has found.
More research needed
Guillaume Chapron at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, who studies large carnivores, says the team hasn’t provided enough information about their statistical methods, the degree of uncertainty in their results, or details on how to replicate their analysis.
“It may be that they found a new dimension to the role played by wolves, but their paper makes a critical evaluation of their findings impossible,” he said. “I’m sure it will be loved by wolf advocates, but much less by statisticians.”
Eyes on natural risk mitigation
More research clearly is needed before anyone should begin advocating large-scale reintroduction of wolves into populous areas with an eye toward reducing auto insurance claims and premiums. But the study highlights an area to which insurers are paying increasing attention: natural risk mitigation.
For example, interest has risen in how restoration of natural ecosystems – such as mangrove forests and coral reefs – can reduce insured losses caused by storm surge caused by hurricanes.
In many places, mangroves are the first line of defense, their aerial roots helping to reduce erosion and dissipate storm surge. A healthy coral reef can reduce up to 97 percent of a wave’s energy before it hits the shore. Reefs — especially those that have been weakened by pollution, disease, overfishing, and ocean acidification — can be damaged by severe storms, reducing the protection they offer for coastal communities.
In Florida, a recent study found, mangroves alone prevented $1.5 billion in direct flood damages and protected over half a million people during Hurricane Irma in 2017, reducing damages by nearly 25 percent. Another study found that mangroves actively prevent more than $65 billion in property damage and protect over 15 million people every year worldwide.
Communities, businesses, and families looking to reduce damages and their associated costs should look closely at natural, pre-emptive mitigation.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis last week signed two bills that lawmakers say will leave Florida better prepared for future flooding and sea level rise.
The legislature’s approval of these measures and the governor putting his signature on them is one of those moments that seem to mark a real change in awareness of and attitude toward this often-minimized risk. As the Tampa Bay Timespoints out, “Florida’s legislature for most of the last decade has taken little action and entertained hardly any public discussion about sea level rise.”
The bills, SB 1954 and SB 2514, will — among other things — set aside hundreds of millions of state dollars for flooding infrastructure projects. It requires the Department of Environmental Protection to prepare a flooding and resiliency plan and provides up to $100 million a year to communities that identify areas along the coast and other waterways that are at risk from sea level rise.
“This is a really significant amount of resources,” DeSantis said at a bill signing ceremony in Tarpon Springs. “We’re really putting our money where our mouth is when it comes to protecting the state of Florida, particularly our coastal communities, from the risks of flooding.”
On the leading edge of sea level rise
Florida’s 1,350 miles of coastline is the lifeblood of its tourism industry. Given the fact that much of the state sits at or near sea level on a foundation largely composed of porous limestone, it is particularly vulnerable to the threat of rising seas. Some areas of the state are already seeing flooding on clear days during particularly high tides, according to the Associated Press.
The magnitude of the threat is illustrated by the fact that three Florida-based insurers recently announced that they will not be renewing more than 53,000 property policies as of June – just as the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season begins. The first named storm of the season — Subtropical Storm Ana — formed early on May 22, northeast of Bermuda.
Florida statute Chapter 224 Part III allows insurers to cancel policies when the company would be placed in a hazardous financial situation due to an uptick in claims after hurricane damage or attorney’s fees to defend itself over fraudulent adjuster claims.
Dulce Suarez-Resnick, past president of the Latin American Association of Insurance Agencies, said this kind of widespread cancellation is common after subsequent years of heightened hurricane activity.
“It’s not the end of the world or that they’re bad companies,” Suarez-Resnick said. “It’s that these companies were weakened by prior storms and the bill for the reinsurance got heftier. That’s where we are today.”
As we’ve previously written, many experts consider the current system for managing and mitigating flood risk to be generally unsustainable. Insurers increasingly recognize that risk transfer is not enough and that a resilience mindset is required that demands more than new insurance products. Innovation and technology, along with public-private partnerships, are key components of any resilience strategy that is going to be effective.
Thanks to the insurance industry’s longtime focus on assessing and quantifying catastrophe risk and the rise of sophisticated modeling capabilities, insurers are ideal partners for addressing these evolving risks.
Subtropical Storm #Ana has formed near Bermuda – the first Atlantic named storm of the 2021 #hurricane season. The Atlantic has had at least one named storm prior to official start of hurricane season on 1 June for seven years in a row (2015 thru 2021). pic.twitter.com/TjdIDXzQck
Subtropical Storm Ana formed early on May 22, northeast of Bermuda, becoming the first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Hurricane Center upgraded Ana to a tropical storm on the morning of May 23 but it was quickly downgraded to a tropical depression by afternoon.
Ana weakened into a post-tropical cyclone and was expected to dissipate on May 24 as it tracked northeastward into colder Atlantic waters.
This marks the seventh consecutive year in which at least one named storm has formed prior to the start of Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins June 1. Over the past six years, there have been eight preseason named storms, four of which made landfall in the U.S. In 2020, two tropical storms—Arthur and Bertha—formed in May.
By Katrina Cheung, Communications Manager, Triple-I
As we continue to celebrate AAPI Heritage Month, Triple-I is spotlighting Filipino-American gallery owner, painter, and Covington, Louisiana-native, Marianne Angeli Rodriguez.
Rodriguez spent much of her life living abroad in West Africa, Central America, Europe, and Asia before settling in the U.S. She earned her bachelor’s in media studies and anthropology from the City University of New York at Hunter College, and a degree in fashion design from FIT. After being laid off from two different fashion industry jobs, she worked as a freelancer creating fashion and beauty sketches for magazines, in addition to taking client commissions. She eventually outgrew working in small-scale and shifted to working on larger canvases.
Rodriguez’s art has garnered attention from numerous magazines and has led to various collaborations.
Her work is on permanent display in numerous public installations, including the Sloan Kettering Cancer Centers in New York, Southern Hotel Covington, Magnolia Hotel New Orleans, Shirley Ryan AbilityLab Chicago, Nolé restaurant in New Orleans, and the New Orleans Louis Armstrong International Airport.
We had the pleasure of speaking to Rodriguez about her gallery, her work, how she remained resilient in the face of the pandemic and other setbacks, and how she protects her business from natural disasters.
Tell us about your work and your gallery. How did it all start?
Shortly, after I was laid off, a job opportunity for my husband moved us to a different city and I dedicated the following year to painting out of my dining room. I developed a website to sell my work online, and soon after I rented out a studio to work out of. After three years of working diligently and growing my client-base, I outgrew that space and decided on a new, more prominent, gallery location around the corner. At this point my husband joined me to work on the business full-time as my business partner and gallery director. We signed the lease to this new location two weeks before COVID shutdowns.
Wow, 2020 was such a tough year for small businesses so I can only imagine how daunting it was for you and your husband to open the gallery during the pandemic! Despite the unknown and challenges that the pandemic presented, it seems like the gallery is thriving.
Can you talk about some of the obstacles you’ve faced since opening the gallery and how you have been able to overcome them?
Since we took on a much larger brick and mortar space right in the beginning of the pandemic, our main challenge was the disappearance of foot traffic. We realized that our online presence and web shop was going to be our saving grace so we re-strategized and poured our efforts into marketing, re-designing our e-commerce platform, and becoming more engaged on social media. We also tapped into local partnerships and were able to offer more products and services including custom framing and high-quality canvas prints to diversify our offerings and meet the needs of various art buyers. Since everyone was quarantined and taking on home-improvement projects including decorating, 2020 turned out to be a prosperous year for us as a small business.
Given that you live in a hurricane-prone area, in what ways have you safeguarded yourself and your gallery property against extreme weather?
During hurricane season, with any imminent threats, our typical drill is to secure the outer perimeter of the business by removing objects (like our hanging gallery signage) and using sandbags at entry points to safeguard against flooding. In case of emergency, we have insurance and an evacuation plan.
Art is such an important part of our history and our communities. It tells us stories from all walks of life, including those that might not be told often in mainstream media. As an artist, what do you hope to convey to people with your art?
I’m a colorist, so first and foremost what I wish is to elicit feelings of joy, delight, and positive energy when viewers first come across my work. As a minority based in the South, it’s been a privilege to sprinkle in bits of my Filipino heritage in both the imagery and the titles/stories behind the work – it’s a way to invite others to receive new insights without necessarily speaking so directly about it, and I love the way it opens the door of deeper connections and curiosity.
There’s been a consensus in the AAPI community that many have felt cultural and societal pressures to pursue STEM-related careers.
What advice do you have for anyone that wants to follow their dreams, but feel pressure to follow a certain career path based on societal pressures or maybe even pressure from their family?
My advice for anyone wanting to go “against the grain” is to be fully prepared to and willing to take on the rollercoaster that may lie ahead. Research your industry, know your competition and stay ahead with technology and social media. Take one step at a time, and fully immerse yourself in each evolving chapter. Take note of the hard lessons, be thankful for them as they’re there to help you move closer to the best most professional version of yourself/your business. Build trust by over-delivering on customer service. Practice gratitude daily.
Were there other times in your life that you have personally had to remain resilient despite the challenges ahead? If so, can you share what those experiences were and how that has helped you as an artist and businessowner?
Years ago, when I had just gotten laid off from my job and was dipping my toes into the artworld doing local art fairs, my car was stolen and everything I had invested in for my new venture was gone. It was devastating. My family urged me to move back home and consider a career in the corporate world. I stuck it out and stayed and rebuilt from the ground up. That experience gave me the tenacity I so needed to be fully independent, committed and driven in pursuing my creative path. Later, as I grew more serious in my practice, I got rejected from the galleries I wanted so badly to land a relationship with, but I continued to work on my art, perfecting my process and investing in courses to widen my business knowledge, and ultimately opened -and now operate- a gallery of my own.
What has been the most rewarding part of being a small businessowner?
The most rewarding part of being a small business owner, specifically as an artist, is having complete autonomy over the creative vision being released out into the world. Having the ability to positively impact your community and brighten someone’s day is both empowering and humbling.
May 22 marks the ten-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri, tornado – the deadliest single tornado event in U.S. history. In these videos, Triple-I’s Scott Holeman shows how the people of Joplin have recovered and become more resilient.
The EF-5 tornado destroyed thousands of homes and businesses and was the largest insurance event in Missouri history, with insured losses totaling roughly $9 billion (in 2021 dollars).
Survivors of the 2011 tornado say many lessons were learned after the devastating storm. Local insurance experts say the disaster taught the community about the importance of renters insurance and keeping homeowners policies updated.
Today, many Joplin residents prepare a “go-kit” whenever there’s a storm threat.
Numerous public facilities, businesses and residences have added enhanced safety modifications. The high school and hospital are prominent examples.
Wildfires in California and across the West are starting earlier and ending later each year. The ongoing drought worsened last week, with every part of the state in moderate drought or worse.
After a 2020 fire season that Janet Ruiz, Triple-I’s California-based director of strategic communications, called “anything but normal,” this year’s season may be even worse.
Warmer spring and summer temperatures, reduced snowpack, and earlier spring snowmelt create longer, more intense dry seasons that make forests more susceptible to wildfire. The fire season’s length is estimated to have increased by 75 days across the Sierras and seems to correspond with an increase in the extent of forest fires across the state.
“Hots are getting hotter”
California Gov. Gavin Newsom recently expanded a drought emergency declaration while seeking more than $6 billion in multiyear water spending.
“The hots are getting a lot hotter in this state, the dries are getting a lot drier,” he said. “We have a conveyance system, a water system, that was designed for a world that no longer exists.”
California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has called for property insurers across the state to play a larger role in boosting wildfire preparedness among homeowners and businesses by providing more wildfire mitigation incentives. He spotlighted eight insurance companies in the state and the California FAIR Plan, which offer discounts to policyholders that have taken adequate steps to harden homes and mitigate wildfire risk.
This group represents only 13 percent of the state market, and Lara hopes the figure will rise significantly this year.
“Insurance companies support and echo Commissioner Lara’s call for mitigation,” Mark Sektnan, vice president of American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA), said in a statement on behalf of APCIA, the Personal Insurance Federation of California (PIFC), and the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies (NAMIC).“Insurers are working with scientists and modelers to further the science of understanding how to better mitigate wildfire risk and understanding the value of various mitigation programs and efforts. While we cannot stop wildfires, we are learning how to mitigate the risks and are moving towards understanding and quantifying the value of individual and community mitigation. Insurers encourage homeowners, renters and businesses to get their property and finances ready for wildfires, as we are facing another dry, hot summer.”
Mostly caused by people
As much as 90 percent of wildland fires in the United States are caused by people, according to the U.S. Department of Interior. Some human-caused fires result from campfires left unattended, the burning of debris, downed power lines, negligently discarded cigarettes and intentional acts of arson. The remaining 10 percent are started by lightning or lava.
The Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety provides recommendations for reducing the likelihood of your home catching fire, including noncombustible siding, decking and roofing materials; covered vents; and fences not connected directly to the house. In addition, combustible structures in the yard such as playground equipment should be at least 30 feet away from the house and vegetation 100 feet away.
But given weather, climate, and population trends, more than individual planning and risk transfer through insurance will be required to head off wildfire risk and bounce back from events. Innovation and a resilience mindset on the part of governments, businesses, homeowners, and communities will need to take hold.
Want to learn more about wildfire mitigation and resilience? Register for “Wildfire Ready: How Do You Prepare Your Home and Finances for Wildfires?” on May 20 at 10 a.m. (PT)
By Loretta Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I
Property/casualty insurers are projected to continue to post slight underwriting profits in 2021, according to a forecast released today by the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman.
The forecast projects a 2021 combined ratio of 99, virtually the same as last year. The forecast was revealed during an exclusive, members-only virtual webinar, “Triple-I /Milliman Underwriting Projections: A Look Ahead,” moderated by Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. Early projections for 2022 and 2023 look similar. The combined ratio is the percentage of each premium dollar an insurer spends on claims and expenses.
Premiums are expected to surge 7.1 percent this year, according to the forecast, up from 2.5 percent in 2020, as the combination of an economic recovery and a hard market increase both exposures and rates. A hard market, also known as a seller’s market, occurs when insurance is expensive and in short supply. Premium growth is projected to slow in 2022 and 2023 but remain above 5 percent in both years.
2021 got off to a bumpy start for natural catastrophes. “The industry took a big hit with the Texas freeze in Q1, with overall cat loss estimates in the $15 billion range,” said James Lynch, FCAS, MAAA, senior vice president and chief actuary at the Triple-I. “Most of that was the Texas storm. Q1 losses that big are atypical.” He added that the drought in the West is a continued concern as wildfire season approaches.
Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, an independent risk management, benefits, and technology firm, said that underwriting results would gradually improve starting next year. And as more people are vaccinated and back to work, the economy should keep humming. “Last year’s recession was unusual in that there really wasn’t anything wrong with the economy until COVID hit. So now, with COVID (hopefully) on the run, the American Rescue Plan well underway, and the possibility of another stimulus at some point later this year, growth should be strong.”
“We anticipate a jump in premium growth this year, thanks to the economic recovery and a hard market,” said Kurtz.
Dr Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University and a Triple-I non-resident scholar, has already given his initial forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. He noted at the time that 2021 is expected to have above-normal activity, with 17 named storms, eight of which will become hurricanes – and of those eight, four are predicted to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour). That compares with the long-term average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
“There are a couple of reasons why we’re forecasting above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity,” said Dr. Klotzbach. “We do not anticipate El Niño conditions this summer and fall,” he said, explaining that El Niño occurs when there is warmer than normal waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
“When those El Niño conditions occur, it tends to increase upper-level winds, so winds at 20,000-30,000 feet in the atmosphere tear apart hurricanes in the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic. We’ll have a lot more to say when we put out our 2021 hurricane projections on June 3,” Klotzbach stated.
Looking at the Directors & Officers (D&O) market, Dave Moore, FCAS, MAAA, of Moore Actuarial Consulting, LLC, said that security class actions continue to exert upward pressure on both the number and size of claims in the public company D&O market and are expected to continue. “Prior to 2017, there were less than 200 security class actions filed per year, on average. In the last four years, that annual average has doubled to around 400 security class actions. Last year frequency fell, which might have been due to the pandemic. Even so, 2020 activity is still well above average.”
Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary, National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI),provided a high-level overview of the latest workers compensation insurance industry results and critical data points that demonstrate the health and resiliency of the system.
“The pandemic has demonstrated that the U.S. workers compensation system is resilient and strong,” she said. “Despite experiencing a 10 percent drop in net written premium amidst the pandemic recession, NCCI reports a calendar year combined ratio of 87, indicating a sign of profitability for carriers. Workers compensation reserves remain robust, with the redundancy growing to $14 billion in 2020.”
Dr. Sam Madden, co-founder and chief scientist from Cambridge Mobile Telematics, a telematics and analytics provider for insurers, rideshares, and fleets, discussed exposure and risk trends in mobility from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. He noted that in early March 2020 there was a precipitous drop in driving – nearly 60 percent – as the pandemic hit and the country shut down.
“During the summer of 2020, people began driving more, but overall, miles [driven] still remained depressed. As restrictions loosened and more people became vaccinated, driving returned to near pre-pandemic levels,” he said.
However, while the number of miles driven dropped during the pandemic, speeding spiked 45 percent. “Reduced traffic meant that many drivers could speed, and they did!” Dr. Madden continued. “Speeding remained elevated throughout the pandemic, and remains somewhat elevated today, with levels about 10 percent higher on average than pre-pandemic.”
Dr. Michel Léonard, CBE, vice president and senior economist, Triple-I, noted that the most important issue right now in terms of economics and insurance is the wide range of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and inflation forecasts.
“We’ve never seen GDP forecasts from the Fed and financial institutions ranging from 4 percent to as much as 10 percent. What we can be sure is that the economy has been recovering in Q1 and so far in Q2, but such discrepancies in major economic indicators should be cause for caution, especially as COVID-19 is still an issue here in the U.S. and abroad,” he said.
Amid such wider economic uncertainty, Dr. Léonard said, what may be more helpful for insurance practitioners “is to focus on the insurance sector’s own growth, which outperformed the wider economy by nearly 6 percent in 2020 and is well positioned to do so again in 2021. Another insight is the growing consensus around the upward direction of interest rates which should help lift up net income from last year’s minus 3.8 percent.”
Three little letters – ESG – can strike business decision makers with anxiety as they strive to incorporate nonfinancial factors into their strategic analysis and planning.
Shorthand for “environmental, social, and governance” these factors, which seek to capture the environmental and social impacts of operations and investment practices, have become more pressing in recent years due to:
Globalization,
Concerns about climate and extreme weather, and
Inequity and injustice becoming more visible in real time, thanks to social media.
This visibility can affect purchasing choices, spur consumer and shareholder activism, and even spark civil unrest, leading to physical injuries, property damage, and business disruptions.
Fortunately, the insurance industry has ESG hardwired into its DNA. While ESG priorities may seem new to many industries, insurers have long been involved in understanding and addressing these and other risk factors as a fundamental part of doing business. As a result, they are well prepared to meet ESG-related demands and are ideal partners for businesses, communities, and nonprofits seeking to navigate this “new” area of risk and opportunity.
And, far from being an impediment to profitable performance, research increasingly demonstrates an ROI advantage for companies that include ESG in their business strategies and operational practices.
Click here to learn more about the role ESG plays in insurance and that insurance plays in ESG.
Two narratives about how recovery from the COVID-19-driven economic downturn will play out are competing in the business press – the Federal Reserve’s and that of the financial markets.
Market economists typically forecast wider changes in quarter-over-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) than their counterparts at the Fed. But the current discrepancy is wider than it has been in decades. This is creating so much confusion in financial news that a recent edition of Squawk Box discussed the extent to which “markets seem reluctant to believe the Fed’s policy goals.”
The markets see recent GDP growth as closely aligned to stock market performance: a dramatic drop in the second quarter of 2020 and an equally dramatic recovery from third-quarter 2020 to third-quarter 2021.
The Fed sees GDP as driven by structural economic considerations that move only gradually from quarter to quarter. As a result, the Fed estimated a smaller drop in GDP for second-quarter 2020 and a slower recovery ever since.
Over the last year, the Fed view was proven right multiple times.
“Triple-I’s forecasts fall within the consensus central banks view, as represented by the Fed for the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the large insurance markets we follow,” said Dr. Michel Léonard, Triple-I vice president and senior economist. He said the expectations gap comes down to three economic considerations:
Fiscal stimulus and GDP growth: Fed and market economists disagree about the extent of the relationship between fiscal stimulus and growth. When generating GDP forecasts, all economists assign a “multiplier” to quantify the impact of government spending on GDP growth. Market economists tend to assign larger multipliers than central bank economists. Given the historically high fiscal stimulus of the last 12 months, market economists expect historically high GDP growth.
Shifts in economic output: They also tend to weight quarterly data differently. Fed economists focus more heavily on quarter-to-quarter trends, and market economists on changes within quarters. The COVID-19 economy upended how certain activities are carried out and reduced the comprehensiveness of quarterly data. For market economists, this led to overestimating the decrease in activity in the second quarter of 2020 and now overestimating the increase in first and second quarter 2021.
Timing: The Fed and markets agree broadly about GDP growth but disagree on timing. Both expect a comparable amount of growth between now and 2023 but, for the reasons above, allocate it differently across 2021, 2022, and 2023. Market economists allocate most of the growth to 2021, while Fed economists spread it over the 2021-2023 period. This has led to the Fed forecasting higher growth in 2022 than some markets economists.
