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Industry Financials, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Webinars

P/C Insurers’ Profits Still Under Pressure

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The profitability of the U.S. property/casualty insurance industry is expected to remain under pressure, according to the latest underwriting projections released by Triple-I and Milliman actuaries. Speaking at a members only webinar yesterday, the actuaries said this is due to continued deterioration in personal lines.

The sector’s combined ratio – the most commonly used measure of underwriting profitability – is seen running at an estimated 101.3 combined ratio for 2021. A combined ratio under 100 percent indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 percent indicates a loss.

Dr. Michel Léonard, vice president, senior economist, and head of Triple-I’s Economics and Analytics Department, said the industry’s performance continues to be “significantly constrained” by higher-than-average inflation and lower underlying growth.

Dale Porfilio, Triple-I chief insurance officer, noted that the insurance industry had the worst full-year catastrophe losses since 2017 with the Texas freeze, Hurricane Ida, wildfires and tornadoes.

“Healthy premium growth in 2022 and 2023 is possible from an economic recovery and a hard market,” he said, noting however, that uncertainty from COVID-19 continues to put pressure on rates and profitability.  “Inflation, supply chain, and riskier insured behavior are also contributing to loss pressures.”

On the personal auto side, Porfilio said the 2021 estimated combined ratio has increased to 99.9 due to deteriorating non-catastrophe loss trends combined with excess catastrophe losses.

“Loss pressures forecast for 2022 and 2023 will likely result in profitability similar to pre-pandemic levels,” he said.  “Miles driven are back to 2019 levels, but with riskier driving behaviors such as speeding and impaired driving.”  

On the commercial auto side, underwriting losses are forecast to continue through 2023, but improve year-over-year said Dave Moore, president and consulting actuary at Moore Actuarial Consulting.

“We continue to observe a significant rebound in premium growth due to the economic recovery and the hard market,” Moore said. He cited a recent paper published by Triple-I, funded by a research grant from the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), that quantifies the impact of “social inflation” on commercial auto liability claims.

“Based on this research, we estimate that social inflation increased commercial auto liability claims by more than $20 billion between 2010 and 2019,” Moore said. “This can be influenced by a variety of factors, including negative public sentiment about larger corporations, litigation funding, and tort reform rollbacks.”

Jason B. Kurtz, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, said general liability underwriting losses are expected to continue, but profitability should improve due to rate increases.  Looking at the workers compensation line, Kurtz noted that underwriting profits continue, although margins continue to shrink.

“The pandemic recession, remote work, and economic recovery are still impacting volume and location of workers comp risk,” he said. “Claim frequency remains below pre-pandemic levels and if the trend of large reserve releases on prior accident years continues, 2021 is likely to be another profitable year.” 

Learn More:

What’s Happening With Auto Insurance Premiums

Trends and Insights: Drivers of Homeowners’ Insurance Rate Increases

Social Inflation and Loss Development

Insurers and the Economy, Workers Compensation

Workers Comp:Resilient and Relevant

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Despite early “dire estimates” of how the COVID-19 pandemic might affect the workers compensation insurance sector, the system has proved to be resilient, according to Bill Donnell, president and CEO of the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI).

Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan recently spoke with Donnell about a range of workers comp topics, starting with how the line has managed to buck the hard-market trend affecting much of the rest of the industry. Workers comp plays a critical role in the U.S. economy and is the second-largest line of commercial insurance, with $42 billion in premium annually. As part of its mission to foster a healthy workers compensation system, NCCI gathers data, analyzes industry trends, and provides objective insurance rate and loss cost recommendations. 

While much of the rest of the property and casualty insurance sector has been marked by rising rates in recent years, Donnell said, “Workers compensation rates have been trending down, unlike others in the marketplace.”

Even with rates falling, he said, the line has seen “seven years of underwriting gains and favorable combined ratios.” Combined ratio is the most commonly cited measure of profitability for individual insurers and for the industry.

Donnell added that, in 2020, workers comp writers had $14 billion in reserves.

“It’s a resilient system,” he said.

Donnell also offered his perspective on how the nearly 100-year-old industry can stay relevant in the years ahead.

“It’s about modernizing data and analysis,” he said. “It’s about attracting the best talent, and never losing focus about why we exist, which is helping injured workers and their families. I can’t think of a more noble mission than that one.”

Careers and Employment

Triple-I, HBCU IMPACT Partner to Recruit African-American Talent

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Triple-I and HBCU IMPACT have joined forces in a career-building campaign aimed at recruiting students at historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) to the insurance industry.

The acronym, IMPACT, stands for “Insurance Mentoring Program Advance Career Track”. The organization’s co-founders say they are aggressively sharing the “good news” of insurance career opportunities with students from all disciplines. 

“The war for talent in our industry is indeed real, but it is also an extremely exciting time of corporate transformation and technological advancement,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan.  Even before the “Great Resignation,” the insurance industry faced a talent gap. Much of the workforce is reaching retirement age, and the median age of insurance company employees is higher than in other financial sectors.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, as of 2019, African-Americans made up only 12.4 percent of the insurance industry’s employees.  A study conducted by the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America (IIABA) in 2018 found that only 2 percent of established agencies had at least one African-American principal.

“We are going around like evangelists, letting the next generation of black talent know that insurance is a place where you can build a career, learn skills that are transferable, and you can make a lot of money,” said Rebekah Ratliff, mediator/arbitrator, founder of CCM Consulting Associates, LLC and HBCU IMPACT co-founder.

“Ultimately, we want to achieve an increased representation of black talent in the industry – not just at the entry level, but we are also looking to groom our next black executives,” said Ngozi Nnaji, founder of Ako Insurance Consulting, LLC and Ako Brokerage Services, LLC and an HBCU IMPACT co-founder. “HBCU IMPACT is proud to join forces with Triple-I to spread the word.”

The campaign kicks off Black History Month – which also is Insurance Careers Month – with the launch of HBCU IMPACT’s new website and Triple-I’s release of a video series titled “Insuring Success.”

Triple-I isn’t alone among organizations seeking to increase diversity and inclusion in insurance.

Zurich North America in January launched its Zurich Fellow Scholarship to help “diverse talent” pursue advanced degrees in insurance fields, Jessica Aguilar, head of talent acquisition for Zurich, told Business Insurance. The American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) and its members helped launch the Insurance Careers Movement (ICM) in 2015 to focus on workforce development and diversity as key industry priorities. More than 1,000 insurers, agents and brokers, trade associations, regulators, media organizations, and others are currently working together as part of Insurance Careers Month, according to ICM managing director Marguerite Tortorello.

#Insurancecareersmonth #ICM2022 #blackhistorymonth #insuringsuccess

Auto Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

Triple-I, CAS Quantify Social Inflation’s Impact on Commercial Auto

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The phenomenon known as “social inflation” accounted for $20 billion in commercial auto liability claims between 2010 and 2019, a new study by Triple-I and the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) finds.

Social inflation isn’t a new term. Warren Buffett used it in the 1970s to describe “a broadening definition by society and juries of what is covered by insurance policies.” It has since become common parlance among insurers and risk managers for a range of factors causing losses in certain lines to rise faster than general inflation would predict. These include:

  • Class-action lawsuits;
  • Growing awards from sympathetic juries;
  • Third-party litigation funding, in which investors finance lawsuits against large companies in return for a share in the settlement; and
  • Rollbacks of tort reforms that were intended to control costs in the wake of the 1980s “liability crisis”.

Hard to measure, important to understand

Reliably quantifying social inflation for rating and reserving purposes is hard because it’s just one of many factors pressuring pricing. The paper, authored by actuaries James Lynch and David Moore, uses “standard actuarial metrics and visualizations to demonstrate how actuarial insights can be presented to an interested lay audience, such as lawmakers, regulators, the news media, and the public.”

This is an important contribution to the public policy discussion because actuaries are well positioned to spot shifts in loss severity.

Separately, Triple-I has published an “Issues Brief” that succinctly describes the drivers of social inflation, as well as its potential impact on insurers, policyholders, and the economy and society.

“More frequent suits and bigger awards can lead to increased insurance costs as rates are adjusted to reflect the changing risk profile – or even to insurers ceasing to write particular forms of coverage,” the brief says. “Higher premiums tend to be passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices and, in extreme cases, can ripple through the entire economy, creating conditions analogous to the 1980s liability crisis.”

In the 1980s, liability claims were pushing the U.S. insurance industry to the brink of collapse. Tort reforms – ranging from capping non-economic damages and limiting contingency fees to specifying statutes of limitations and eliminating “joint and several” liability – were enacted, and losses declined. It has been argued that legislative efforts to roll back these reforms in many states have contributed to social inflation, but the research is not conclusive.

Careers and Employment

Insurance Careers: Opportunity in Risk

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February is “Insurance Careers Month” – a great time to remind the world that insurance isn’t boring!

“If you’re looking for tech, if you are looking to be a part of innovation, the insurance industry is definitely something people should consider,” Marguerite Tortorello, managing director of the Insurance Careers Movement (ICM), says in this brief video. ICM is a grass-roots initiative consisting of more than 1,000 organizations inspiring people to choose insurance as a career; identifying, developing, and retaining leaders; and advancing diversity, equity, and inclusion in the industry.

Long before today’s technology, insurance was the original “big data” industry. High-speed computing, telecommunications, and sophisticated modeling and analytics have only increased our ability to gather, organize, and analyze data to help mitigate and share risk and empower families, businesses, and communities to bounce back from calamity.

In addition, the pandemic has taught us that a globally interconnected economy is fraught with vulnerabilities and inequities that need to be addressed as the world navigates the “new normal.” Insurance touches all of these challenges and opportunities.

“There are so many exciting things happening,” Tortorello says, from automobile telematics and cybersecurity to disaster preparation and response, in roles from underwriting, claims, and loss control to customer service, marketing, and more. 

Throughout February, ICM’s members will be – even more than usual – sharing stories and insights and showcasing opportunities, using the hashtags #insurancecareersmonth and #ICM2022. Whether you’re a recent graduate, a veteran, someone looking to change careers, or a retiree interested in bringing your talents back into the game, insurance offers tremendous potential to do interesting work and have an impact.

#workininsurance #insuranceisntboring

Catastrophes, Homeowners Insurance, Market Conditions

Triple-I Brief Explains Rising Homeowners’ Insurance Premium Rates

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Homeowners’ insurance premium rates have risen significantly since the pandemic and are likely to keep increasing. It’s important for consumers and policymakers to understand why this is happening and why it’s likely to continue, so Triple-I has published an Issues Brief on the topic.

From 2017 through 2021, premium rates are up 12.2 percent on average nationwide, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Much of this can be attributed to pandemic-related supply-chain issues and labor shortages driving up the cost of home repairs and replacement.

But, as the Issues Brief shows, longer-term trends are in play – most significantly, more than 40 years of rising natural catastrophe losses. Average insured cat losses are up approximately 700 percent since the 1980s, due in part to increased frequency and intensity of events and to population shifts into disaster-prone regions. The brief cites U.S. Census Bureau data showing that the number of housing units in the United States has increased most dramatically since 1940 in areas most vulnerable to weather and climate-related damage.

It also shows that homeowners’ insurance premium rates have generally trailed increases in home replacement costs.  As a result, homeowners’ coverage has been an unprofitable business line for insurers in recent years – an unsustainable long-term trend that has been exacerbated by the pandemic’s disruption of the supply chain and the global economy.

Learn More

Flood: Beyond Risk Transfer

Hurricane Season: More Than Just Wind and Water

Fighting Wildfires With Innovation

Facts + Statistics: Homeowners’ and Renters’ Insurance

For even more resources, check out Triple-I’s Resilience Accelerator.

Legal Environment

California Takes Top Spot on ATRA’s “Hellholes” List; Pennsylvania Falls to No. 4

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California has reclaimed its top spot on the “Judicial Hellholes” list maintained by the American Tort Reform Association (ATRA).

“California’s appellate courts are the first to hold e-commerce companies strictly liable for products sold on their sites,” ATRA writes in its 2021-2022 report. “Baseless Prop-65 lawsuits thrive in courts, and the volume of litigation continues to skyrocket.”

The report also points to what it calls “frivolous” Private Attorney General Act (PAGA) and Americans with Disability Act (ADA) lawsuits and says the state’s Lemon Law “provides windfalls for plaintiffs’ lawyers.”

New York State is a close number two, ATRA says, “as the two jurisdictions battle it out for the most ‘no-injury’ class action lawsuits and the most claims under the ADA.” It adds that New York “is a preferred jurisdiction for asbestos litigation and, like California, the legislature ignores the need for reform and continues to push a liability-expanding agenda.”

Georgia has risen to number three on the basis of what ATRA calls the “significant deterioration” of its civil justice system.

“The Georgia Supreme Court eliminated apportionment of fault in certain cases and expanded bad faith liability for insurers,” ATRA says. “It also adopted an expansive view of jurisdiction of its courts over out-of-state businesses. Nuclear verdicts are bogging down business, and third-party litigation financing is playing an increasing role in litigation.”

Pennsylvania fell from number one to number four, but ATRA says this “was in no way a reflection of progress or improvements made in the state, but rather indicative of the number of issues plaguing other jurisdictions.”

ATRA is a Washington, D.C.-based group formed in 1986 and dedicated to tort and liability reform. It has published the Judicial Hellholes report since 2002. 

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Catastrophes, Cyber Risk, Risk Management

Cyber Tops Allianz 2022 Survey of Business Risks

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Cyber incidents are the top threat to businesses, according to the latest Allianz Risk Barometer survey, up from third place in 2021. This result follows several significant data breaches and hacks last year, including the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, which caused a six-day shutdown and cost the company $4.4 million to regain access to its systems.

Business interruption fell to the second most important concern in a year marked by the continued presence of the coronavirus pandemic, cyberattacks, and natural catastrophes. Still, the report notes that the pandemic “has exposed the fragility and complexity of modern supply chains and how multiple events can come together to cause problems, raising awareness of the need for greater resilience and transparency.”

Natural catastrophe risk ranks third on the list – a jump from sixth in 2021. Global insured catastrophe losses increased to $112 billion in 2021, the fourth highest on record, according to Swiss Re.

While cyber is ranked as a more immediate threat to business than climate change, the report says these two perils are “linked by the fact that two of the most significant impacts expected from changes in legislation and regulation (the fifth top risk) in 2022 will be around big tech and sustainability.”

Pandemic outbreak fell to fourth place for 2022, with many companies comfortable that they are now better prepared for the consequences of these occurrences. According to the report, 80 percent of respondents believe they are “adequately” or “well” prepared.

The 11th annual report was developed from a late 2021 survey of 2,650 risk management experts from 89 countries and territories, including Allianz customers, brokers, industry trade organizations, risk consultants, and underwriters, with a focus on large- and small to mid-size companies.

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Insurers and the Economy, Risk Management

Weather, Supply Chain, Inflation Drive Up Commercial Property Insurance Prices

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Construction material costs rose dramatically in 2021, altering the underwriting and pricing of commercial property insurance. A recent report by Westchester – Chubb’s excess and surplus specialty product group – details the causes of rising commercial property insurance prices and how they can be mitigated.

The report cites three main factors driving the increase:

  • More frequent and severe insured losses due to extreme weather;
  • A supply chain crisis that has generated higher costs for construction materials; and
  • Rising inflation, which totaled nearly 7 percent in December 2021 from the previous year’s period and is the largest one-year increase in the past 40 years.

Weather, extreme and unpredictable

According to NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, there were 20 weather-related disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion occurred in the United States between January and September 2021. Between 1980 and 2020, the average number of these types of losses was seven.

In the first half of 2021, about $42 billion in insured property losses were recorded by the insurance industry, representing the highest figure in a decade, according to Swiss Re.

Despite this dramatic rise in losses, the report says, catastrophe risk models “may not fully capture the potential losses attributable to unusual weather events like the December 2021 tornado outbreak, Hurricane Ida, and Winter Storm Uri.” The unpredictability of these storms, alongside a need for better hydrological, topological, and geospatial data gathering and analysis, continues to pose a threat for insurers trying to anticipate risks associated with commercial properties.

Supply chain

2021 also saw a fluctuation of pricing changes for many materials — particularly those used for building – courtesy of the pandemic’s disruption of the global supply chain. Although the exorbitant lumber prices fell in the second half of the year, the prices of materials like copper piping and tubing dramatically increased, according to the report. This posed a challenge for insurers to approximate future costs for underwriting and pricing purposes. 

If an unexpected major storm hits a heavily populated region, thousands of homes may need to be repaired or replaced at the same time, pushing the cost of goods and labor – and, ultimately, insurance – even higher. In November 2021, the report says, it was estimated that commercial properties were undervalued for insurance underwriting purposes by more than 30 percent.

Inflation

In addition to pandemic-driven cost increases, underwriters are concerned about the broader inflation picture and its potential impact on interest rates.

“High inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, for example, adversely affected the industry, resulting in weaker underwriting performance and reserve levels,” the report says. “Rising interest rates, on the other hand, deteriorated the value of fixed income assets.”

Economists recently polled by Reuters said they expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy to tame persistently high inflation at a much faster pace than they believed a month earlier.

 Where do we go from here?

Westchester’s report offers several strategies to help combat rising commercial property insurance costs:

  • Insurers, reinsurers, modeling firms, brokers, and risk managers need to develop more accurate and near-real-time data on building condition, drainage systems, real estate trends, and access to construction materials and labor;
  • Risk managers and property owners should consider entering agreements with contractors before weather events to ensure that materials and services are available when the need arises;
  • To ensure more comprehensive underwriting of a building’s replacement value, more frequent and in-depth property damage risk appraisals from qualified sources are needed; and
  • Insurers should consider upgrading loss prevention services provided to commercial property owners and rewarding policyholders with discounts and credits for taking certain risk-mitigation measures.
Careers and Employment, Technology

Invest in Technology — But Don’t Forgetto Invest in People

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A recent survey of insurance underwriters found that 40 percent of their time is spent on “tasks that are not core” to underwriting. The top three reasons they cited are:

  • Redundant inputs/manual processes;
  • Outdated/inflexible systems; and
  • Lack of information/analytics at the point of need.

The survey – conducted by The Institutes and Accenture – also found that underwriting quality processes and tools are at their lowest point since the survey was first conducted in 2008. Only 46 percent of the 434 underwriters who responded said they believe their frontline underwriting practices are “superior” – which is down 17 percent from 2013.

“While underwriters believe technology changes have improved underwriting performance, 64 percent said their workload has increased or had no change with technology investments,” Christopher McDaniel, president at The Institutes Catastrophe Resiliency Council, told attendees at Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum.

The survey’s findings with respect to talent may shed some light on this. The number of organizations viewed as having “superior” talent management capabilities for underwriting fell 50 percent since 2013 across almost every measure of performance evaluated.

“Training, recruiting, and retention planning had some of the biggest drops, particularly for personal lines,” McDaniel said. About a quarter of personal lines underwriters said they view their company’s talent management programs as deficient.  That rate rose to 41 percent for talent retention; 37 percent for in succession planning; 33 percent for in training; and 30 percent for recruiting

“While technology investment may have improved underwriting performance” in terms of risk evaluation, quoting, and selling, McDaniel said those improvements “appear to have come at the expense of training and retaining underwriting talent,” McDaniel said.

Even before the pandemic and “the great resignation,” insurance faced a talent gap.  Part of the challenge has been finding replacements for a rapidly retiring workforce, as the median age of insurance company employees is higher than in other financial sectors.

A McKinsey study that assessed the potential impact of automation on functions like underwriting, actuarial, claims, finance, and operations at U.S and European companies found that as underwriting  becomes more technical in nature it also will require more social skills and flexibility. Respondents to the McKinsey survey said automation and analytics-driven processes will produce a greater need for “soft skills” to shape and interpret quantitative outputs. Adaptability will also become more important for underwriters to stay responsive to changing risks and learn new techniques as technology changes.

“Underwriters will not become programmers themselves,” the McKinsey report said, “but they will work extensively with colleagues in newer digital and data-focused roles to develop and manage underwriting solutions.”

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