Category Archives: Market Conditions

Triple-I Testifies on
New York Insurance Affordability

By Jeff Dunsavage, Senior Research Analyst, Triple-I

New Yorkers – like residents of all U.S. states – have been struggling with rising costs in recent years, including the cost of home and auto insurance coverage. This week, Patrick Schmid, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, testified to New York lawmakers about why homeowners’ insurance premiums are rising and where New York policyholders stand relative to other states.

“New York’s homeowners’ insurance market is, in fact, functioning well and remains affordable when properly contextualized,” Schmid said in written testimony to the New York Senate Committees on Investigations and Government Operations, Insurance, and Housing, Construction, and Community Development. “While premiums may appear high in absolute dollars, they are relatively average and reasonable as a percentage of household income.”

Citing data from the Insurance Research Council (IRC), Schmid said New York ranks 29th in its homeowners’ affordability study, with a 2.11 percent ratio of homeowners’ insurance expenditure to median household income ratio. This is a lower percentage than a decade earlier for the state. According to IRC – like Triple-I, an affiliate of The Institutes – New York’s homeowners’ insurance expenditures equal 0.39 percent of median household income.

“When a home costs $413,588 and insurance costs $1,602 annually (0.39% of the home’s value), the insurance premium is not necessarily the driver of unaffordability within the region,” Schmid said. “The underlying property cost, and associated replacement costs, are likely a key challenge.”

He compared New York with:

  • Louisiana, with a ratio of 1.18 percent (more than three times New York’s)
  • Mississippi, at 1.04 percent (nearly three times New York)
  • Alabama, at 0.78 percent (twice New York)
  • Florida, at 0.4 percent (1.7 times New York)

“Only 20 states have more efficient insurance costs relative to home values,” Schmid said. “This contradicts the narrative of an affordability crisis in New York’s homeowners insurance market. Our market is delivering coverage at rates that are among the most competitive in the nation when measured against the value of assets being protected.”

New Yorkers face significant cost burdens that are structural and related to a variety of factors outside of insurance, Schmid said.

The fundamental driver of insurance costs is the cost to rebuild homes, most notably:

  • Labor costs: Skilled trades in NY metro areas command premium wages;
  • Material costs: Transportation, storage, and compliance add to expenses;
  • Building codes: Stricter standards increase rebuilding costs but improve long-term resilience and reduce future losses; and
  • Land values: Property values include expensive land that doesn’t require insurance, making the actual structure component even more valuable proportionally.

Schmid cautioned against lawmakers following the temptation to intervene in insurance markets – as some states have attempted to do in recent years — emphasizing that “targeting insurance premiums would address a symptom rather than the cause, potentially destabilizing a well-functioning, competitive market without improving overall housing affordability for New York residents.”

Learn More:

Triple-I Brief Explains Benefits of Risk-Based Pricing of Insurance

Calls for Insurance-Price Legislation Would Hurt Policyholders, Not Help

Illinois Lawmakers Reject Risk-Based Pricing Challenge

Calif. Risk/Regulatory Environment Highlights Role of Risk-Based PricingIllinois Bill Highlights Need for Education on Risk-Based Pricing of Insurance Coverage

IRC: Homeowners’ Insurance Rate Filing Growing Less Efficient

By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The rate-filing process for homeowners’ insurance has become less efficient and effective, a new study by the Insurance Research Council (IRC) shows.

The report – Rate Regulation in Homeowners Insurance: A Comparison of State Systems analyzed industry data from 2010 through 2024 across all states, including the District of Columbia. The study found that, not only is it taking longer for insurers to get rate increases approved, but the increases are lower than requested, with bigger gaps between the request and the granted amount than had previously been the case.

Key findings:

  • The number of rate filings is growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.3 percent from 2018 to 2024 nationwide.
  • The average number of days to approval grew from 44 to 63 days.
  • The number of filings withdrawn increased from 2.9 percent of filings to 3.9 percent of filings.
  • The percentage of filings receiving less rate impact than requested grew by more than 10 points.
  • The disparity in approved rate impact grew by nearly 1 point.
  • Market concentration (as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, or HHI) decreased by 14.6 percent.
  • The residual share of direct written premium has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 10.5 percent from 2020 to 2024
  • A strong-to-moderate correlation exists between net underwriting losses and premium shortfalls within states and across time.
  • Filing process measures and market outcomes vary by regulatory systems.

During this same period from 2010 through 2024, the homeowners’ insurance industry experienced a net combined ratio over 100 in 10 of the 15 years. Combined ratio – calculated as losses and expenses divided by earned premium plus operating expenses divided by written premium – is a key measure of underwriting profitability. A combined ratio over 100 represents an underwriting loss.

The IRC report includes the determination of a strong correlation between underwriting loss and premium shortfalls, defined as the potential dollar difference between the effective filed rate impact and approved rate impact.

In California, for example, the time to approval exceeds that of the next highest state – New York – by more than four months. California also has the second-fastest-growing residual market share from 2.1 percent in 2019 to 8.2 percent in 2024 and the second-fastest-growing excess and surplus homeowners market share from 0.3 percent in 2010 to 6.3 percent in 2024. This means that, at most, only 85 percent of California homeowners’ insurance is covered by a standard policy.

IRC, like Triple-I, is an affiliate of The Institutes.

Florida Governor Touts Auto Insurance Rebates, Tort Reform Success

By Jeff DunsavageSenior Research Analyst, Triple-I

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced last week that state regulators have secured nearly $1 billion in premium refunds for Progressive auto insurance policyholders in the state, due to cost savings achieved through litigation reform.

DeSantis, who signed sweeping tort reform legislation bills into law in 2022 and 2023, said the refunds are a direct result of declining litigation expenses in Florida’s auto insurance market.

“Florida was really considered a litigation hellhole by a lot of folks,” DeSantis said. “That contributed to consumers having to bear more costs with respect to auto insurance.”

He pledged Insurance Commissioner Mike Yaworksy is negotiating with other major auto carriers for similar reimbursements to their customers.

Mark Friedlander, Triple-I’s director of communications, told Spectrum News Florida that reduced lawsuit expenses has enabled auto insurers to lower average costs and, in some cases, return premium to customers.

“When you take that out of the equation — all of those abusive lawsuits — this brings down the expenses, and that in turn gets passed along to the consumer,” Friedlander said. “The consumer wins with legal system reform.”

Learn More:

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Florida Senate Rejects Legal-Reform Challenge

What Florida’s Misguided Investigation Means for Georgia Tort Reform

Florida Bills Would Reverse Progress on Costly Legal System Abuse

Florida Reforms Bear Fruit as Premium Rates Stabilize 

How Georgia Might Learn From Florida Reforms

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

Florida Homeowners Premium Growth Slows as Reforms Take Hold, Inflation Cools

Despite Headwinds,
P/C Insurance Industry Maintains Course in 2025

By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry is on track for a second consecutive year of underwriting profitability in 2025, and is projected to grow faster than the broader U.S. economy, according to the latest Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report from Triple-I and Milliman. The report, which is based on data through the first half of 2025, highlights continued progress despite persistent geopolitical and natural catastrophe uncertainties.

Positive Economic Signals and Lingering Concerns

The industry’s economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. According to Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I, the industry has benefited from stronger-than-expected underlying growth. He also noted that P/C replacement costs continue to rise more slowly than overall inflation.

However, Léonard also pointed to factors that make the outlook for 2026 especially important to watch.

 “Ongoing risks, including tariffs, labor market softening and persistent inflation,” could pose challenges, he said. While the impact of tariffs has been less severe than initially anticipated, their long-term effect remains an open question.

Underwriting Performance: A Mixed Bag

Overall underwriting profitability for 2025 is expected to be a repeat of 2024, but to a lesser degree. The performance gap between personal lines and commercial lines is narrowing.  

“Favorable second-quarter results for homeowners helped narrow the anticipated 2025 gap between personal and commercial lines performance created by the Los Angeles fires in the first quarter,” said Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., Triple-I’s chief insurance officer.

Schmid also noted that personal lines premium growth is expected to remain higher than commercial lines by one point in 2025. That difference is projected to disappear by 2027.

Personal Lines

  • Personal Auto: The personal auto sector continues to be a highlight, with its forecast 2025 Net Combined Ratio (NCR) on track for continued profitability. The forecast has also slightly improved from prior estimates.
  • Homeowners: Despite favorable results in the second quarter, the homeowners’ NCR forecast for 2025 is still expected to be unprofitable for the year.

Commercial Lines

  • General Liability: This continues to be a line of concern. According to Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, “We see underwriting losses continuing in 2025, with the 2025 net combined ratio for GL forecast at 107.1.” He also said that, while slight improvement is expected in 2026-2027, “we estimate GL combined ratios to remain above 100.” Kurtz added, “Direct incurred loss ratios through mid-2025 have not improved relative to 2024’s poor result. Forecasted net written premium growth of 8.0 percent is 4.8 points above 2024 as premiums respond to recent performance.”
  • Workers Compensation: In contrast to general liability, workers’ compensation remains the strongest-performing major line in the P/C industry. Preliminary 2025 results from NCCI show calendar year combined ratios in the range of 85–93 percent. Donna Glenn, Chief Actuary at NCCI, noted, “If this holds, it will represent 12 consecutive years of combined ratios under 100% for private carriers.” For more details on the preliminary Workers Comp 2025 results, see NCCI’s full analysis in 2025 in Sight, 2024 in Review: The Latest Results for Workers Compensation.

Delving Deeper: A Members-Only View

For members who want to dig deeper into the projections, the full Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report offers a more granular analysis, including:

  • A detailed look at personal auto and commercial auto results, breaking down the quarterly experience between auto liability and physical damage.
  • A forecast of net combined ratio and net written premium growth specific to farmowners insurance.
  • A comparison of commercial property sub-lines.
  • A breakdown of commercial multiple peril results, differentiating between property and liability performance.

The next quarterly report will be presented at a members-only webinar in January 2026.

ClimateTech Connect NYC: You Just Had to Be There

I wrapped up my first-ever Climate Week NYC last week at ClimateTech Connect. After their two-day April event in Washington, D.C., I could hardly miss this special half-day update when it was so close to home.

Fifty-plus attendees crammed a room near Grand Central Station, and I immediately spotted familiar faces and had the opportunity to meet with a mix of industry veterans and relative newbies spanning all insurance disciplines, from underwriting and claims to the cutting edge of modeling and artificial intelligence. Top insurance thought leaders and influencers were there to speak on climate-related issues of pressing interest to my industry and everyone it serves. The panel themes and the panelist themselves made it clear from the start that a blog post was not going to do the event justice.

The first panel – Pioneers Shaping the Future of Climate Resilience – was moderated by Francis Bouchard, managing director for climate at Marsh McLennan, whose bona fides include senior positions with Zurich Insurance and the Reinsurance Association of America. Francis moderated a no-holds-barred panel of young insurance leaders: Angela Grant at Palomar, Michael Gulla of Adaptive Insurance, and Valkyrie Holmes of Faura. The energy and expertise of these panelists left me feeling that the industry – in the face of myriad challenges – is being put into good hands.

The next discussion was moderated by Jerry Theodorou, a director at the R Street Institute whose professional background includes roles at Conning, AIG, and Chubb. It featured Dan Kaniewski, managing director and U.S. public sector lead for Marsh McLennan and a former FEMA deputy administrator, and Raghuveer Vinukollu, head of climate insights and advisory for Munich Re. The depth and timeliness of these three experts’ insights made for an engaging and thought-provoking session.

The third panel was both engaging and accessible – a bit surprising to me, given that it consisted entirely of PhDs. Steve Weinstein, CEO of Mangrove Property Insurance led a discussion among Joanna Syroka of Fermat Capital Management, Catherine Ansell of JPMorgan Chase, and M. Cameron Rencurrel at Mercury Insurance on not only “Why Science Needs to Be in the Boardroom,” but HOW young scientists can find their way there and decide IF that’s where they want to be.

Between these panels were presentations from representatives of several insurtechs who shared their data-driven solutions focused on understanding and addressing climate-related panels. All this in a period of about three hours (not including the networking reception afterward). Despite all the information shared, the event did not feel at all rushed.

If you weren’t able to make it and are feeling a bit left out, don’t fret! ClimateTech Connect 2026 will be held in Washington, D.C., on April 8 and 9, 2026.

As Global Risks Evolve,
So Must Insurance

By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Economic shifts, geopolitical uncertainties, cybersecurity trends, and mounting climate perils have created an increasingly severe and interconnected risk crisis, according to participants in a members-only Triple-I webinar.

In an environment constrained, for instance, by frequent natural disasters and rising replacement costs, risks no longer develop in isolation. They collide with and compound each other. Their combined impact exceeds the sum of individual risks’ effects. Such interdependence complicates identifying, let alone mitigating, the forces underpinning a specific risk.

“Under this new system that’s emerging, risk can propagate very rapidly through a host of otherwise disconnected networks,” TradeSecure president and cofounder Scott Jones told webinar host Michel Léonard, Triple-I’s Chief Economist and Data Scientist.  “This new reality fundamentally challenges the core principles that insurance has relied on for centuries.”

Jones emphasized the growing unpredictability of risk on a global scale, particularly as nations impose export controls, sanctions, investment restrictions, and tariffs for purposes like economic competition. Companies with global footprints may struggle to ascertain these interwoven, sometimes competing regulations, creating compliance concerns and potentially exacerbating supply-chain disruptions.

With the frequency and severity of U.S. cyber claims on the rise, cyberattacks also carry substantial transnational implications. Sophisticated ransomware encounters can exploit businesses of all sizes, propelling privacy liability claims and related third-party litigation.

TradeSecure vice president and cofounder Michael Beck explained how the almost universal accessibility of malware – harnessed by criminal syndicates, activist groups, or even lone hackers – presents “a new class of systemic non-physical disruption” that could undermine “the entire system’s liquidity and stability.”

“A coordinated non-state cyberattack wouldn’t just steal money – it could stop the flow of money, causing many transaction failures and possibly triggering a wave of claims far beyond what traditional cyber policies are designed to handle,” Beck said.

Though insurers as well as business owners and consumers consider cyber incidents a chief risk concern, personal cyber take-up rates remain low, with the broader cyber insurance market facing its third consecutive year of declining rates. Misunderstandings surrounding cyber risk and benefits of coverage fuel this discrepancy, revealing a gap between agent perceptions of product value and that of their customers.

Learn More:

2025 Cat Losses to Date Are 2nd-Costliest Since Records Have Been Kept

JIF 2025: U.S. Policy Changes and Uncertainty Imperil Insurance Affordability

Tariff Uncertainty May Strain Insurance Markets, Challenge Affordability

How Tariffs Affect P&C Insurance Prospects

Calls for Insurance-Price Legislation Would Hurt Policyholders, Not Help

Nonprofit to Rescue NOAA Billion-Dollar Dataset

Russia Quake Highlights Unpredictability of Natural Catastrophes

US Cyber Claims Surge While Global Rates Decline: Chubb

Personal Cyber Risk Is Up; Why Isn’t Adoption of Personal Cyber Coverage?

Calls for Insurance-Price Legislation Would Hurt Policyholders, Not Help

Increased legislative involvement in regulating homeowners’ insurance pricing and rates – as recently called for by some officials in Illinois – would hurt insurance affordability in the state, rather than helping consumers as intended, Triple-I says in its latest Issues Brief.

Rising premiums are a national issue. They reflect a combination of costly climate-related weather events, demographic trends, and rising material and labor costs to repair and replace damaged or destroyed property. Average insured catastrophe losses have been increasing for decades, fueled in part by natural disasters and population shifts into high-risk areas. More recently, these and other losses to which the property/casualty insurance industry is vulnerable were exacerbated by inflation related to the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tariffs and changes in U.S. economic policies have since put even more upward pressure on costs.

These increasing costs – if not addressed – threaten to erode the policyholder surplus insurers are required to keep on hand to pay claims. If surplus falls below a certain level, insurers have no choice but to increase premium rates or adjust their willingness to assume risks in certain areas.

To avoid this, many insurers have filed with state regulators for rate increases – requests that often meet with resistance from consumer advocacy groups and legislators. Illinois would not be the first state to try to ease consumers’ pain by constraining insurers’ ability to accurately set coverage prices to reflect increasing levels of risk and costs.

Practicality, not politics

Such efforts, while perhaps politically popular, confuse one symptom (higher premiums) of a growing risk crisis with its underlying cause (increasing losses and rising costs). Using the blunt instrument of legislation to address the complexities and sensitivities of underwriting and pricing would tend to disrupt the market and further hurt insurance affordability – and, in some areas, availability.

Rather than target insurers with misguided legislation, the brief says, states would be wiser to work with the industry to improve their risk profiles by investing in mitigation and resilience. The brief describes the causes of higher premium rates nationally and in Illinois and how other states have successfully collaborated to address those causes and reduce upward pressure on – and eventually bring down –premium rates.

“Triple-I welcomes the opportunity to collaborate with state policymakers to develop constructive approaches to risk mitigation and resilience that will benefit communities and consumers,” the brief says.

Learn More:

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Easing Home Upkeep to Control Insurance Costs

Survey: Homeowners See Value of Aerial Imagery for Insurers; Education Key to Comfort Levels

Nonprofit to Rescue NOAA Billion-Dollar Dataset

2025 Cat Losses to Date Are 2nd-Costliest Since Records Have Been Kept

2025 Tornadoes Highlight Convective Storm Losses

Auto Premium Growth Slows as Policyholders Shop Around, Study Says

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

IoT Solutions Offer Homeowners, Insurers Value — But How Much?

Texas: A Microcosm of U.S. Climate Perils

New Illinois Bills Would Harm — Not Help — Auto Policyholders

Illinois Bill Highlights Need for Education on Risk-Based Pricing of Insurance Coverage

Hail: The “Death by 1,000 Paper Cuts” Peril

Nonprofit to Rescue NOAA Billion-Dollar Dataset

A climate nonprofit plans to revive a key federal database tracking billion-dollar weather and climate disasters that the Trump Administration stopped updating in May, Bloomberg reported.

The database captures the financial toll of increasingly intense weather events and was used by insurers and others to understand, model, and predict weather perils across the United States. Dr. Adam B. Smith, the former NOAA climatologist who spearheaded the database for more than a decade, has been hired to manage it for the nonprofit, Climate Central.

NOAA in May announced it would stop tracking the cost of the country’s most expensive disasters, those which cause at least $1 billion in damage – a move that would leave insurers, researchers, and government policymakers with less reliable information to help understand the patterns of major disasters like hurricanes, drought or wildfires, and their economic consequences.

Climate Central plans to expand beyond the database’s original scope by tracking disasters as small as $100 million and calculating losses from individual wildfires, rather than simply reporting seasonal regional totals.

A record 28 billion-dollar disasters hit the United States in 2023, including a drought that caused $14.8 billion in damages. In 2024, 27 incidents of that scale occurred. Since 1980, an average of nine such events have struck in the United States annually.

This summer – amid deadly wildfires and floods – the Trump Administration has appeared to be rolling back some of its DOGE-driven NOAA funding cuts. NOAA recently announced that it would be hiring 450 meteorologists, hydrologists, and radar technicians for the National Weather Service (NWS), after having terminated over 550 such positions in the already-understaffed agency in the spring.

In addition, the administration’s announced termination of the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program — run by the  Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) — has been held up by a court injunction while legislators debate its future.  Congress established BRIC through the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 to ensure a stable funding source to support mitigation projects annually. The program has allocated more than $5 billion for investment in mitigation projects to alleviate human suffering and avoid economic losses from floods, wildfires, and other disasters.

Regarding the rescue of the NOAA dataset, Colorado State University researcher and Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach said, “The billion-dollar disaster dataset is important for those of us working to better understand the impacts of tropical cyclones. It uses a consistent methodology to estimate damage caused by natural disasters from 1980 to the present and was a critical input to our papers investigating the relationship between landfalling wind, pressure and damage. I’m very happy to hear that this dataset will continue!”

Learn More:

Some Weather Service Jobs Being Restored; BRIC Still Being Litigated

2025 Cat Losses to Date Are 2nd-Costliest Since Records Have Been Kept

CSU Sticks to Hurricane Season Forecast, Warns About Near-Term Activity

Russia Quake Highlights Unpredictability of Natural Catastrophes

Texas: A Microcosm of U.S. Climate Perils

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

JIF 2025: Federal Cuts Imperil Resilience Efforts

Auto Premium Growth Slows As Policyholders Shop Around, Study Says

Improved loss ratios, strong premium growth, and lower retention rates characterized the U.S. auto insurance industry in 2024, according to LexisNexis® Risk Solutions’ 2025 U.S Auto Insurance Trends Report.

The report shows that, “while a number of insurers returned to profitability as the market softened,” the market was characterized by “record levels of policy shopping and switching, attorney representation, claims severity, and rising driving violations.”

Rate increases over the past two years helped U.S. insurers address profitability issues, the report said. Premium rate increases are beginning to ease, rising 10 percent in 2024, compared with a 15 percent hike in 2023, as market conditions soften. Insurer profitability is improving, with direct written premiums growing 13.6 percent, to $359 billion, and incurred loss ratios stabilizing, enabling some carriers to pursue growth strategies and file for rate decreases.

LexisNexis Risk Solutions also notes that tariffs may factor into how insurers consider rate in 2025.  While the market wouldn’t expect the magnitude of activity seen between 2022 through 2024, tariffs, if they stick, could set off a ripple effect of moderate rate increases with implications across the industry.

Other trends identified in the report include:

  • Bodily injury claims severity jumped 9.2 percent, and property damage severity climbed 2.5 percent, year over year. In contrast, collision severity fell 2.5 percent for the same period.
  • All driving violations increased 17percent and driving violation rates across the United States surpassed 2019 levels.
  • Policy shopping reached an all-time high, with more than 45 percent of policies in force shopped at least once by year-end.

The report also noted that electric vehicle (EV) transitions are introducing new risks, as drivers moving from internal combustion engine vehicles to EVs experienced a 14 percet rise in claim frequency.

“Auto insurers continue to navigate a dynamic market,” said Jeff Batiste, senior vice president and general manager, U.S. auto and home insurance, LexisNexis Risk Solutions. “The combination of the market softening and a return to profitability presents a potential new chapter for the industry as insurers encounter a consumer base that is more willing than ever to shop for deals.”

Record levels of auto policy switching translated to 2024’s new policy growth rate of 17.7 percent year over year. It also added momentum to the ongoing customer retention decline across the industry.

Since 2021, retention has decreased five percentage points, to 78 percent, resulting in a 22 percent increase in policy churn, the report says.

“Historically, dropping even one percentage point is significant,” it says. “However, against a backdrop of heightened levels of shopping and switching activity, insurers may want to focus on their retention strategies, especially when long-tenured customers are hitting the market.”

Learn More:

Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Personal Auto Shines, General Liability Faces Headwinds in Q3 2025

Personal Auto 2024 Underwriting Results Best Since Pandemic

Even With Recent Rises, Auto Insurance Is More Affordable Than During Most of Century to Date

New IRC Report: Personal Auto Insurance State Regulation Systems

Personal Auto Shines, General Liability Faces Headwinds in Q3 2025

By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry is entering the latter half of 2025 with a nuanced underwriting landscape, as revealed in the latest “Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View” report from Triple-I and Milliman. While personal auto continues to be a strong performer, the general liability sector is grappling with persistent profitability concerns.

Industrywide Trends

The overall industrywide net combined ratio (NCR) for 2025 is forecast at 99.3, a 2.7-point increase from 2024. Despite some line-specific challenges, a broader return to profitability is anticipated in 2026. The overall Net Written Premium (NWP) growth rate for 2025 is projected to be 6.8 percent, a decrease of 2.0 points from 2024, marking the lowest growth since 2020. Personal lines growth is expected to outpace commercial lines by 1.5 percentage points in 2025, though this gap is predicted to narrow by 2027.

Economic Influences

Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I, highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy and the P&C industry amidst tariffs and trade uncertainty.

“The insurance industry’s economic growth drivers continue to outperform overall U.S. GDP growth,” he stated. However, Léonard cautioned that revised economic data for the first half of the year might paint a weaker picture of the U.S. economy, potentially leading to more widespread concerns of contraction or even recession heading into the fall.

He also noted, “With inventories running low, their depletion will now accelerate inflation and slow growth for the rest of the year.”

Léonard pointed out that price increases due to tariffs and other economic factors have been most severe for personal auto, with used car and truck prices increasing by 7.7 percent in the first half of this year. The P&C industry typically lags the broader economy by one to two quarters, suggesting that a potential broader economic contraction could impact the industry starting in Q1 or Q2 of 2026.

Personal Lines Underwriting Performance

Personal auto continues to be a robust area, with a forecast 2025 NCR of 96.0. This is approximately 1 point higher than 2024, but the line remains on track for continued profitability.

Homeowners insurance, however, faced significant challenges in Q1 2025 due to the Los Angeles wildfires earlier this year. The Q1 2025 Loss Ratio for homeowners was the worst first-quarter experienced in over 15 years and the worst of any quarter since Q2 2011.

Commercial Lines Underwriting Performance

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, noted that commercial auto is forecast to remain unprofitable from 2025 to 2027, despite an estimated double-digit NWP growth in 2025.

Commercial Property with a forecast 2025 NCR of 88.3 remains profitable while 5.5 points over 2024. Strong premium growth from 2021 through 2023 contributed to profitability in the two most recent years, but there’s been a significant slowdown with premiums growing just 4.2 percent for Q1 2025. Commercial Multi-Peril swung to profitability in 2024 after combined ratios above 100 dating back to 2016. However, poor Q1 2025 results are driving a forecast 2025 Net Combined Ratio of 101.0.

The general liability line continues to be a source of profitability concern. The Q1 2025 General Liability Loss Ratio was the second worst first quarter in more than 15 years, showing less than a 1-point improvement from Q1 2024. For general liability, he stated, “the NCR is expected to improve in 2026-2027 but remain unprofitable. It is worrisome that the 1st quarter 2025 direct incurred loss ratio was only marginally improved relative to the 1st quarter of 2024, and that these two results are the highest first quarter loss ratios in more than 15 years. On a positive note, premium growth does appear to be picking up.”

In contrast, workers compensation continues its strong performance. Kurtz highlighted that the forecasted 2025 NCR of 90.6 represents a 1.0-point improvement from prior estimates, as the Q1 2025 Loss Ratio was the lowest in over 15 years. Stephen Cooper, Executive Director and Senior Economist at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), commented on the labor market’s impact, stating, “While employment has been concentrated amongst fewer industries, the labor market has shown resilience and continued strong payroll growth for workers compensation.”

He also added, “With economic uncertainty elevated and recession concerns resurfacing, consumer behavior will be important to watch.”

*Note: Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View is a quarterly report available exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers.