California endured the largest and most destructive wildfires in state history in 2017 and 2018. The aftermath has left many wondering whether catastrophic wildfires will be the new normal for California and other fire-prone states, and, if so, what can be done. As the 2019 wildfire season progresses, there is a sense of urgency in the discussions among homeowners and business owners, policymakers, insurance companies and community leaders about how to change the paradigm in which wildfire-prone areas manage and respond to wildfire risks.
The Insurance Information Institute was fortunate to get an opportunity to speak with someone who is on the front lines of wildfire response. Frank Frievalt is the Fire Chief at Mammoth Lakes Fire Protection District and part of the Western Fire Chiefs Association (WFCA). He is leading the insurance section of the WFCA’s Wildfire Initiative. The WFCA has recently formed a partnership with ISO and Interra to help better understand wildfire risk for communities.
I.I.I.: Many are concerned that the severity of wildfire events in the United States will only increase. Do you agree? If so, what do you think some of the major factors for this increase are?
FF: What we currently have is an alignment of factors. We have 100 years of 100 percent fire suppression policy, so fuel loadings are off the scale in environments where fire is part of the natural ecology. We have growth of houses built in the Wildland–Urban Interface (WUI) fueled by market forces (there is an estimated $250 billion in assessed home valuation in the 11 western states). There is the weather piece – the data is pretty clear that we are having a shift in climate which is not likely to change quickly. You also have ignitions which are mostly caused by people, and unless people’s general behavior improves remarkably, I don’t see any reason why the contributing factors are going to change.
I.I.I.: Tell us about the Wildfire Initiative and how you see a partnership between the WFCA and insurers developing?
Frank Frievalt: After becoming the Mammoth Lakes Fire Chief in late 2012 I began to notice a disconnect with ISO’s FireLine risk assessment ratings for structures in WUI communities and the Defensible Space guidelines we use in the Western Fire Service. I set out to understand how ISO’s FireLine worked and reached out to ISO.
The main thing that we need to do is get technical facts empirically validated about mitigations for structural hardening that will deter ember reception at the structure. That’s how we’re losing most of the structures, it’s not direct flame contact. Once we have them identified and validated then we have to look into how these mitigations can be applied actuarially. We’ve been working with ISO who are really open to closing the knowledge gap.
Part of our goal is to have fire services and the insurance industry stand shoulder to shoulder and look at the mitigations that actually change the needle on outcomes, because we have the same goal – the protection of life and property.
I.I.I.: What are some of the public policy missteps that you see in relation to wildfire mitigation?
We’re only now coming to understand that the federal policy of 100 percent fire suppression will guarantee significant fuel loading and once the fire is established it’s going to burn extremely hot.
California has the most robust WUI code in the country; but that’s not a common situation. Fire Chiefs we collaborate with in the West are frequently opposed by developer and even local government interests when attempting to incorporate more stringent WUI codes.
We really cannot approach the present WUI problem using past approaches from the fire service, insurance industry, or legislation; we are experiencing conditions that are significantly different from the past both as individual variables, and synergistically among each other.
I.I.I.: What do you think about recent wildfire legislation in California?
FF: Anytime there is a social disruptor people get frustrated and call their legislator, and then we start to see reactive-based legislation that is quickly passed, but frequently lacks the necessary detail to implement, track, and manage it.
About 11 months ago there was a flood of this type of legislation that hit California. AB 1516 is one of the most significant pieces but it needs to be followed closely and massaged. It calls for a risk model advisory group and we are working with legislators on that.
The success of public policy requires public buy-in. No public policy is effective that’s just purely enforcement related. The best work that’s going to be done is not by my firefighters or insurance agents – it’s going to be done by Mr. and Mrs. Smith annually and diligently maintaining proscribed defensible space, maintaining structural hardening (mostly retrofits), and then federal, state, and local government works on fuels management which is on the perimeter of communities.
We have got to get a connection with what we’re doing in defensible space inspections and what we’re doing in risk modeling. If my defensible space requirements are the same as the insurance company’s requirements to retain insurance at an affordable rate, then we increase our level of public buy-in to the mitigations that matter.
I.I.I.: Could you suggest a practical list of mitigations for homeowners?
FF: This is not the definitive list, we are still working to come up with that, but here is what I can offer now:
*Window assembly (an unintended consequence of the energy efficiency push led to vinyl windows, which melt and drop out making the building exposed to embers – windows are a big issue)
It’s vitally important the we collectively (and that includes I.I.I.) get involved in measuring the most cost-effective retrofit mitigations for these items. New houses can be built to new code but older houses need to retrofit.
Preliminary studies are indicating that structures built to the 2008 WUI code, and those that had a successful first WUI inspection had a 30 percent less loss to wildfire.
I.I.I.: Can you talk about the role emerging technology plays in mitigation and firefighting?
FF: This area is moving remarkably fast, perhaps too fast; we have a situation where technologies are seeking problems to solve rather than a situation where problems are seeking the best technical tools toward solutions. We need to focus on asking the right questions first. That said, I believe that big data analysis, real-time modeling at the parcel level, hyperspectral imaging, full-scale ember laboratory experimentation, and converting hazard mitigations to actuarial risk are among the top technological leverage points emerging in the WUI discussion.
I.I.I.: Any thoughts on the future of fireproof houses?
FF: I’m not sure the “fireproof” house is plausible in the literal sense. A concrete box would not burn, but it doesn’t have much curb appeal either. The future of survivable houses in the WUI will exist in the shared space between fiscally and socially acceptable risk, market forces on development cost/sales, and the level of effort communities are willing to put into prevention of, and response to, the wildfires that are a natural part of the western ecosystem.
I.I.I.: What are some of the public education efforts of the initiative?
FF: The public education will be secondary to where the science leads us. Whatever we settle on, the public education message must be consistent in content, and recognition, between the fire service and the insurance industry. The terminal objective of public education is to induce informed decisions that encourage behaviors beneficial to the public good. If we fail to send a consistent message, public education efforts will be fragmented and lack credibility; we will have failed to serve the public good.
As of August 28, Hurricane Dorian has been forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane and chances have increased for a direct hit over Labor Day weekend along the coast of Central Florida, causing storm preparations to get off to a frenzied start.
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track map showed Dorian making a direct landfall over Volusia and Brevard Counties on September 2 with winds of more than 110 mph, storm surge, high tides and torrential rainfall.
Dorian became a tropical storm on August 24 and strengthened to hurricane status on August 28 near St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. Nearly the entire eastern coastline of Florida and the Georgia coastal area are within the potential path of the storm. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a statewide state of emergency.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University and Insurance Information Institute non-resident scholar, Hurricane Dorian has now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than the other four named storms of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season combined. Andrea, Chantal and Erin were very weak, and while Barry became a hurricane, it was relatively short-lived.
The I.I.I. offers the following guidance to those who live and work along the east coast of Florida and Georgia:
Write down the name and phone number of your insurer and insurance professional and keep this information either in your wallet or purse;
Purchase emergency supplies, such as batteries and flashlights;
Secure drinking water and non-perishable food; both are essential for all household members in case of prolonged power outages. It is recommended you have one gallon of drinking water per person per day, for up to seven days;
Prepare your yard by removing all outdoor furniture, lawn items, planters and other materials that could be picked up by high winds;
Fill your car’s gasoline tank because long gas lines and fuel shortages often follow a major weather event;
On Monday August 5th Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers issued a news release in which they continue to predict a near-average 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.
The CSU team is predicting a total of 12 additional named storms to form after August 1st . Of those, six are expected to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. These forecast numbers do not include Subtropical Storm Andrea and Hurricane Barry which formed prior to August 1.
The scientists, led by I.I.I. non-resident scholar, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, cite both near-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and a weakening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific as the primary reasons for the near-average prediction.
El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form. While El Niño has weakened over the past several months, they anticipate that lingering warming in the central tropical Pacific should be a slight inhibiting factor for the remainder of the hurricane season.
The tropical Atlantic currently has near average sea surface temperatures. A warmer tropical Atlantic provides more fuel for developing tropical cyclones. Increased tropical Atlantic warmth is also associated with moister air and a more unstable atmosphere, both of which foster organized thunderstorm activity necessary for hurricane development. Vertical wind shear was slightly stronger than normal across the Caribbean in July. This tends to be associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons.
The team based this forecast on 40 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), and other factors.
So far, the 2019 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1990, 1992, 2012 and 2014. “1992 and 2014 had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity, 1990 had near-average hurricane activity, and 2012 had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity.” said Dr. Klotzbach.
