Category Archives: Homeowners Insurance

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Legal Environment, Market Conditions

Disasters, Litigation Reshape Homeowners’ Insurance Affordability

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Rising natural disaster costs, increased home repair expenses, and legal system challenges have made homeowners’ insurance significantly less affordable across the United States over the past two decades,  according to new research from the Insurance Research Council. The trend shows no signs of slowing.

The financial burden of protecting one’s home has grown substantially. With homeowners insurance expenditures growing much faster than incomes over the past two decades, American households now dedicate an increasing share of their income to insurance premiums.

 In 2001, homeowners typically spent about 1.19 percent of their household income on insurance coverage. This figure climbed to 2.09 percent – a 75 percent increase – by 2022, the most recent available year’s data.

Projections of average premiums from the Insurance Information Institute suggest the trend will continue escalating, with estimates indicating households could spend 2.4 percent of their income on homeowners’ insurance by 2024 – the highest level recorded in more than two decades.

Wide variation by state

Utah emerged as the most affordable state in 2022, where residents spent only 1.00 percent of their income on homeowners’ insurance. Other states offering relative affordability included Oregon (1.09 percent), Alaska (1.23 percent), and Maryland (1.27 percent).

Louisiana ranked as the least affordable, with households dedicating 4.22 percent of their income to homeowners’ insurance. Disaster-prone states dominated the least-affordable rankings, with Florida (3.99 percent), Mississippi (3.87 percent), and Oklahoma (3.45 percent), following the Pelican State.

Multiple Cost Pressures

The affordability crisis stems from interconnected factors that have intensified pressure on insurance markets, according to IRC. Increased natural catastrophe risk represents a primary driver, with weather-related events becoming more frequent and severe.

Rising home construction and repair costs have compounded the challenge. Supply-chain disruptions have inflated material prices and extended project timelines, directly impacting claim settlements. When homes require repairs or replacement, insurers face significantly higher costs than in previous years, necessitating premium adjustments to maintain financial stability.

Population migration patterns have exacerbated risk concentrations, with more Americans moving to areas susceptible to natural disasters, the report noted. Coastal regions prone to hurricanes, wildfire-vulnerable areas, and tornado-prone territories have seen increased development, creating larger pools of exposed properties that insurers must protect.

Litigation has added another layer of complexity. Insurance companies report challenges with fraud, excessive claims, and legal system abuse following catastrophic events. The expense index – measuring what insurers spend to process, investigate, and litigate claims as a percentage of incurred losses – varies significantly across states, with litigation rates affecting overall costs.

Homeowners Insurance, Insurance Industry, Insurers and the Economy, Specialty Coverage

LGBTQIA+ Homeownership Gap May Be Fueling Insurance Protection Gap

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Chart of the Week (COTW), As Fewer Same-Sex Couples Own Their Dwelling, They Face a Larger Insurance Protection Gap. The homeownership gap for same-sex couple households is 25.2% based on the most recent data.
The homeownership gap for same-sex couple households is 25.2% based on the most recent data.

As part of an ongoing discussion on the link between the housing and insurance markets, the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) released a Chart of the Week (COTW), “As Fewer Same-Sex Couples Own Their Dwelling, They Face a Larger Insurance Protection Gap.” Based on data from 2023, 62.6 percent of same-sex households own their homes and 37.4 percent rent, representing a homeownership gap of 25.2 percentage points within this community. In comparison, 82 percent of married opposite-sex households own their homes, while only 18 percent rent.

In the United States, homeownership offers several benefits (versus renting) to those with the financial resources to achieve and sustain it. Owners can accrue equity to increase their chances of making a profit when they sell their home. They can reap tax benefits through mortgage deductions. Mortgage holders can also lower monthly housing costs when interest rates drop. Ultimately, a home can increase personal net worth and offer a mechanism to transfer wealth to the next generation. Protecting this asset and its contents makes good financial sense.

Renters may not own their dwelling, but they keep personal belongings in it. They can face serious financial risks in the event of a loss, theft, disaster, or personal liability event. Yet, according to the COTW, 43 percent of renters are uninsured or underinsured, compared to 30 percent of homeowners. There are several reasons attributable to this difference, but it’s essential to keep one at the forefront: insurance coverage requirements are commonplace in mortgage agreements but not in lease agreements. Thus, homeownership status can drive participation in the insurance market.

Examining factors that impede homeownership for same-sex couples might shed light on how to attract and retain more policyholders in this demographic. Looking closely at the interplay of just three of these – housing prices, geography, and legislative environment – reveals that housing tends to be more expensive in LGBTQIA+-friendly areas. Prospective buyers may need to earn at least $150,000 a year – as much as 50 percent more – to avoid living in regions without basic legal protections, according to a recent study of real estate market data across 54 major U.S. metropolitan areas.

High monthly housing costs strain budgets, pushing homeowners and renters out of the insurance market. It can also put the financial qualifications for home buying – i.e., building credit and savings – out of reach. Households are considered cost-burdened when they spend more than 30 percent of their income on rent, mortgage payments, and other housing costs, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

Nationwide, renters had higher median housing costs as a percentage of their income (31.0 percent) compared to homeowners (21.1 percent for homeowners with a mortgage and 11.5 percent for those without a mortgage). In metropolitan areas that welcome and protect diversity, renters are more likely to be housing cost-burdened, particularly in New York (52.1 percent of residents pay more than 30 percent of their income) and San Francisco (37.6 percent of residents). Renters in states and municipalities where legislation is considerably less welcoming but rents are lower can face comparatively higher premiums for rental coverage.

Despite the legalization of same-sex marriage and various anti-discrimination laws, the LGBTQ community still battles considerable discrimination and systemic biases in many areas of life, including housing. Insurers can work to better understand the diverse needs of LGBTQIA+ individuals, couples, and their families, facilitating more effective solutions for managing financial risks. And most importantly, the industry can improve communication around potential coverage benefits for these households.

“We can start closing the protection gap by having people at the table who understand the lived experiences behind the numbers,” says Amy Cole-Smith, Executive Director for BIIC/ Director of Diversity at The Institutes.

For example, renters might find it helpful to know their policy covers a loss event linked to discrimination against them, such as malicious damage or vandalism to the property by a third party. Even when it’s evident the destruction isn’t the renter’s fault, the landlord might still attempt to hold them responsible, either through a lawsuit, a rent increase, or eviction. Additionally, unmarried couples should be informed about whether the insurer includes both partners’ names on a policy and how this provision affects them in the event of a claim.

“Cultivating an inclusive workforce drives smarter solutions, like renters’ insurance that aligns with the realities of same-sex couples, more equitable underwriting, and marketing that truly resonates,” Cole-Smith says. “This isn’t just about equity—it’s about unlocking growth and staying competitive in a changing market. When the insurance workforce reflects the diversity of the market, we’re in a stronger position to build products that meet people where they are.”

Triple-I works to advance the conversation around crucial issues in the insurance industry, including Talent and Recruitment. To join the discussion, register for JIF 2025. We also invite you to follow our blog to learn more about trends in insurance affordability and availability across the property/casualty market.

Homeowners Insurance, Specialty Coverage

When No One’s Home: Understanding Role
of Vacancy Insurance

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By Loretta L. Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

Vacant homes often carry more risk than meets the eye. From burst pipes and property theft to liability and squatter intrusion, a home left unoccupied for an extended period is exposed to a unique set of hazards, many of which may not be covered by a standard homeowners’ insurance policy.

Consider a recent case involving a homeowner who inherited a family property located several states away. With plans to sell the home, they left it unoccupied while it sat on the market through the winter months. After more than 60 days without a visit, the homeowner returned to find a devastating scene: a pipe had burst during a hard freeze, flooding much of the house.

Without anyone home to detect the issue, water had leaked for days — possibly weeks —causing severe damage to ceilings, walls, flooring, heating and electrical systems. The estimated cost of repairs exceeded $60,000.

Unfortunately, their standard homeowners insurance policy excluded coverage due to a vacancy clause, which had been triggered by the home’s unoccupied status.

Understanding Vacancy Clauses

Most homeowners insurance policies include a vacancy clause, which limits or excludes coverage if the property is unoccupied for typically 30 to 60 consecutive days. This is because vacant properties present heightened risks, including:

  • Undetected water leaks or burst pipes;
  • Increased likelihood of theft, vandalism, or trespassing;
  • Greater exposure to fire damage or electrical deficiencies; and
  • Liability if someone is injured on the property.

If a home will be vacant for an extended period, whether due to a sale, relocation, inheritance, or renovation, it’s essential to inform your insurance carrier and review your coverage options.

Water damage is one of the most common and expensive issues in unoccupied homes. Repairing damage from a burst pipe can cost $10,000 to $70,000 or more, depending on how long the issue goes unnoticed. In vacant homes, where regular checks are infrequent, leaks can continue for extended periods before detection, significantly increasing repair and remediation costs.

Vacant properties also are more susceptible to theft and unauthorized occupancy. Copper piping, appliances, and even fixtures can be attractive to criminals. Squatters present another challenge: in some jurisdictions, they can gain tenant rights if not removed promptly, leading to legal costs and delays.

Many standard policies exclude or limit coverage for theft and vandalism once a home is deemed vacant. This makes proper coverage even more important for homeowners who leave properties unoccupied, even temporarily.

Homeowners may be surprised to learn that liability exposure continues even when no one lives there. Injuries on vacant property can lead to significant financial losses.

Common examples include:

  • A delivery person slips on an icy walkway and seeks damages;
  • A contractor or realtor trips and is injured during a property showing; or
  • A child enters the home and is hurt while exploring.

In such cases, the homeowner may be held liable, and, if the home is classified as vacant under the policy, liability coverage could be denied. Legal expenses and settlements can easily run into six figures.

Vacancy endorsements are available

To manage the elevated risks of a vacant property, insurers offer vacant home insurance policies or vacancy endorsements. These policies are designed to cover unoccupied properties and typically include:

  • Water damage from plumbing or heating failures;
  • Fire, lightning, windstorm, and hail damage;
  • Theft, vandalism, and damage caused by trespassers; and
  • Coverage for legal liability in the event of injury on the property.

While these policies tend to be more expensive than standard homeowners insurance, they provide critical protection.

Vacant home policies often still include protection for “sudden and accidental” events, such as a pipe bursting due to freezing temperatures. However, insurers typically require proof that reasonable steps were taken to maintain the property. Failing to heat the home during the winter, for example, could void coverage even under a vacant home policy.

Whether a home is vacant for weeks or months, the following steps can help reduce your exposure:

  • Maintain indoor heat: Keep the thermostat at least 55°F during winter months.
  • Shut off the water supply: Or fully winterize the plumbing system.
  • Secure all entry points: Lock doors and windows; consider reinforced locks.
  • Install remote monitoring systems: Leak detectors, thermostats, and cameras can provide early warnings.
  • Schedule regular visits: Have a neighbor, family member, or property manager check the home weekly.
  • Maintain walkways and lighting: Reduce the risk of slip-and-fall injuries with proper upkeep.
  • Communicate with insurer: Always notify an insurer if the home will be unoccupied for an extended period.

Leaving a home unoccupied for months without adjusting your insurance coverage can expose you to significant financial risk. From costly repairs and legal liability to denied claims, the consequences can be catastrophic.

Before leaving a property vacant, whether due to sale, inheritance, or temporary relocation, homeowners should consult their insurance agent to identify the appropriate coverage. Obtaining a vacant home insurance policy or endorsement can protect both the property and the homeowner’s financial security.

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How Your Roof Influences Your Home and Business Insurance (Triple-I Roofing Toolkit)

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Roof Condition

Why Roof Resilience Matters More Than Ever

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By Loretta L. Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

Your roof is more than just a covering over your head. It’s the first line of defense against nature’s most powerful forces.

During National Roof Awareness Week (June 1-7), we spotlight the critical role roofs play in protecting homes, businesses, and communities from severe weather (see infographic) and why building stronger, smarter roofs today is essential for reducing damage and insurance claims tomorrow.

Why roof awareness matters

The roof bears the brunt of wind, rain, hail, fire, and flying debris. Yet, many home and business owners overlook its condition until it’s too late. According to the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), a staggering 70 to 90 percent of storm-related insurance claims involve roof damage. Whether it’s shingle loss from 60 mph winds or water intrusion through exposed decking, roof failures can turn a storm into a financial disaster.

FORTIFIED: A better way to build and rebuild

Developed by IBHS after decades of research, the FORTIFIED standard is a voluntary construction and re-roofing method that dramatically improves a building’s ability to withstand severe weather. FORTIFIED Roof™ strengthens the most vulnerable parts of a roof, such as edges, decking, and fastening systems, through methods like:

  • Using sealed roof decks to prevent water intrusion (can reduce damage by up to 95 percent);
  • Requiring ring-shank nails to secure roof decking more effectively; and
  • Reinforcing edges with fully adhered starter strips and a wider drip edge.

Many upgrades are affordable.  A sealed roof deck can cost as little as $600, and switching to stronger nails might cost under $100 for a typical 2,000-square-foot home. Roofs built to the FORTIFIED standard not only protect what matters most; it can also lead to significant insurance discounts in states like Alabama, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. These programs are making roof resilience accessible and cost-effective for homeowners and businesses alike.

“It only takes one storm to turn a minor vulnerability into major destruction,” said Roy Wright, IBHS president and CEO. “At IBHS, we’ve spent decades studying how buildings fail—and how they survive. That research led to the FORTIFIED Roof standard, a proven way to reduce storm damage. It’s affordable, accessible, and one of the smartest investments a homeowner can make for peace of mind and protection.” 

Why It Matters to Insurers

Insurers are increasingly focused on roof resilience because it reduces the number and severity of claims. The FORTIFIED Roof standard is part of a broader industry shift from “detect and repair” to “predict and prevent.”

Poorly maintained or outdated roofs can result in denied claims, higher premiums, or non-renewal of policies. Conversely, resilient roofs may qualify for preferred coverage, lower deductibles, and better insurance options.

“A resilient roof isn’t just a safeguard for a single structure,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “It’s a smart strategy for reducing risk across entire communities. As frequency and severity of natural disasters rise, insurers are increasingly focused on proactive solutions like the FORTIFIED standard. These improvements help protect property, minimize costly disruptions, and ensure insurance remains available and affordable for more Americans.”

Roofing in wildfire and hurricane zones

Roofs are also vulnerable to wildfire embers, especially in areas where debris can ignite on the roof surface. For wildfire-prone regions, following IBHS’s Wildfire Prepared Home standard and local fire-safe roofing recommendations is critical. Likewise, in hurricane zones, strong connections between roof components can prevent catastrophic failures when wind forces attempt to peel roof decks away.

Replacing or upgrading a roof is one of the most important investments you can make to your property. And thanks to resources like the Roofing Roadmaps from IBHS, homeowners and business owners can make informed decisions about materials, maintenance, and upgrades that will pay off in both resilience and reduced risk.

Learn More:

Study Touts Payoffs From Alabama Wind Resilience Program

FEMA Highlights Role of Modern Roofs in Preventing Hurricane Damage

2025 Tornadoes Highlight Convective Storm Losses

Severe Convective Storm Risks Reshape U.S. Property Insurance Market

Hail: The “Death by 1,000 Paper Cuts” Peril

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane

Study Touts Payoffs
From Alabama Wind Resilience Program

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A study by the Alabama Department of Insurance, in collaboration with the University of Alabama Center for Insurance Information and Research, shows that widespread adoption of IBHS FORTIFIED construction standards could dramatically reduce insurance claims from hurricanes, while also encouraging property/casualty insurers to maintain coverage in high-risk areas.

Homes built or retrofitted to FORTIFIED standards from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety were found to have suffered far less property damage and a lower volume of insurance claims from Hurricane Sally — which made landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2 storm in September 2020 — than non-FORTIFIED properties.

“The results show mitigation works and that we can build things that are resilient to climate change,” said the author of the study, Triple-I non-resident scholar Lars Powell.

A collective effort

Alabama’s proactive approach – which includes mandatory insurance discounts and a state-backed grant program for resilient construction – offers a model for risk mitigation and protecting homeowners from catastrophic winds of tropical cyclones.

“Alabama was an early adopter of FORTIFIED designations for wind loss mitigation,” the report says. “In 2025, there are more than 53,000 FORTIFIED houses in the state,” out of approximately 80,000 nationwide.

The state grants and insurance discounts have been a big motivator for homeowners to make the investment.  Lawmakers in other hurricane-prone states, such as Louisiana, are looking to Alabama’s strategy as they seek solutions for predicting and preventing losses from increasing natural disaster risks.

Learn More:

Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

JIF 2024: What Resilience Success Looks Like

Mitigation Matters – and Hurricane Sally Proved It

Auto Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Legal Environment, Regulation

Significant Tort Reform Advances in Louisiana

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Louisiana’s Senate passed five tort reform bills last week to curb legal system abuse driven by billboard attorneys in the Pelican State. The legislative success represents the culmination of sustained advocacy efforts – including a Triple-I-backed awareness campaign, StopLegalSystemAbuse.org – to build public support.

The new legislation addresses Louisiana’s longstanding challenges with high insurance premiums and the state’s reputation for being plaintiff-friendly in civil litigation. The reforms include stricter limits on damages, clearer standards for expert testimony, and other procedural changes designed to restore balance to the courts while reducing financial burdens on Louisiana families and businesses.

However, an additional measure intended to change state regulations for approving rate filings for auto and home insurance overshadowed the positive actions taken by lawmakers, the Times-Picayune reported.

House Bill 431, which would prevent drivers who are at least 51 percent at fault in an accident from receiving any compensation for their own injuries, requires final House approval due to Senate amendments. So do Senate Bill 231, which would allow insurers’ lawyers to present jurors with the actual amount paid for medical bills, rather than the total billed, and House Bill 436, which would ban undocumented immigrants injured in car accidents from receiving general (non-economic) damages.

House Bill 434, which would increase the threshold from $15,000 to $100,000 for uninsured drivers to collect medical expenses for bodily injuries in accidents, and House Bill 450, which would require plaintiffs in car accident lawsuits to prove their injuries were actually caused by the accident, are awaiting Gov. Jeff Landry’s signature.

Learn More:

Triple-I “Trends and Insights” Issues Brief: Louisiana Insurance Market (Members only)

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Louisiana Is Least Affordable State for Personal Auto Coverage Across the South and U.S.

Who’s Financing Legal System Abuse? Louisianans Need to Know

Catastrophes, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Lightning, Wildfire

Triple-I Brief Highlights Wildfire Risk Complexity

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Wildfire risk is strongly conditioned by geographic considerations that vary widely among and within states. The latest Triple-I Issues Brief shows how that fact played out in 2024 and early this year and discusses the importance of granular local data for underwriting and pricing insurance in wildfire-prone areas, as well as for much-needed investment in resilience.

The 2024 wildfire season in the South and Southwest was particularly severe, marked by such events as the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle fires in February and March and significant blazes in Arizona and New Mexico. The Southwest accounted for the largest number of residential structures destroyed by wildfire, and three of the top five areas for homes destroyed were in the South. 

California accounted for the largest number of homes at risk for extreme wildfires. In the first half, the state experienced an above-average number of fires, though most were contained before growing to “major incident” size. Subsequent rains suppressed subsequent wildfire conditions – and caused substantial flooding. 

But this rain contributed to an accumulation of fuels so that, when hurricane-force Santa Ana winds whipped through Los Angeles County in early January 2025, the conditions were right for fast-moving blazes to tear through Pacific Palisades and Eaton Canyon.

Temperature, humidity, wind, and topography vary too widely for a single “one size fits all” mitigation approach. This underscores the importance of granular data gathering and scrupulous analysis when underwriting and pricing insurance.  It is also important that insurers proactively engage with diverse stakeholder groups to promote investment in mitigation and resilience.

A recent paper by Triple-I and Guidewire – a provider of software solutions to the insurance industry – uses case studies from three California areas with very different geographic and demographic characteristics to go deeper into how such tools can be used to identify properties with attractive risk properties, despite their location in wildfire-prone areas.

Learn More:

Getting Granular to Find Lower-Risk Properties Amid Wildfire Perils

P&C Insurance Achieves Best Results Since 2013; Wildfire Losses, Tariffs Threaten 2025 Prospects

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Business Risk, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Wildfire

P&C Insurance Achieves Best Results Since 2013; Wildfire Losses, Tariffs Threaten 2025 Prospects

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The U.S. P&C insurance industry’s financial outcomes for 2024 revealed a net combined ratio (NCR) of 96.6, demonstrating a substantial 5.1-point enhancement compared to the prior year and representing the sector’s most favorable underwriting performance since 2013, as detailed in a recent report by Triple-I and Milliman.

However, this progress faces potential impediments. The economic repercussions from early 2025 California wildfire losses, in conjunction with the unfolding influence of tariff policies, introduce factors that could dampen the industry’s performance throughout 2025 and possibly counterbalance the recent positive trajectory.

Noteworthy 2024 performance indicators:

  • The disparity in profitability between personal and commercial lines diminished, with both segments achieving an NCR below 100 for the year.
  • Personal auto insurers reported a 2024 NCR of 95.3, marking a considerable 9.6-point year-over-year improvement. This advancement was largely attributable to robust net written premium (NWP) expansion, with growth rates of 14.4 percent in 2023 and 12.8 percent in 2024.
  • Homeowners’ insurance experienced an 11.2-point improvement from 2023, as reflected in a 2024 NCR of 99.7. This represents the first instance of an NCR below 100 since 2019. Furthermore, the NWP growth rate reached 13.6 percent, surpassing the 12.4 percent growth observed in 2023 and achieving the highest level in over 15 years.

Impending challenges and market pressures:

  • The general liability segment is encountering increased financial strain, as evidenced by the least favorable NCR since 2016 and the third worst since 2010.
  • Early forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 suggest that the P&C industry may face its most challenging first-quarter results in over 15 years due to the extensive losses from the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.
  • The imposition of tariffs, effective as of early May 2025, is beginning to exert pressure on fundamental growth metrics and is contributing to the escalation of replacement costs across various insurance lines, initially with personal auto, and subsequently affecting homeowners and renters, commercial auto, and commercial property.  

Economic dynamics and trends

Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, pointed out that P&C underlying economic growth in 2025 has doubled the growth of the U.S. GDP, with the former at 5 percent and the latter at 2.5 percent year-over-year.  

In addition, it is anticipated that P&C replacement costs will not increase as quickly as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with projected rates of 1.0 percent, compared to 2.0 percent year over year.  

However, Léonard offered a cautionary perspective, stating, “While P&C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy—with stronger growth and lower replacement cost inflation—we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs”.  

He further elaborated on the potential adverse effects of tariffs: “These headwinds are expected to slow the sector’s momentum, potentially leading to a contraction later in the year that could exceed the overall GDP slowdown. Additionally, replacement costs, initially projected to rise more slowly than CPI, may accelerate and begin to outpace it, adding further pressure. Even though rising costs may lead to additional premium increases, these will likely be insufficient to offset slowing consumer spending and corporate investment.”

He explained how the timing of tariff impacts is staggered due to inventory management behavior, with the full effect of current tariffs yet to be realized.

Underwriting context and projections

Dale Porfilio, Chief Insurance Officer at Triple-I, attributes the notable 2024 turnaround in personal lines to the hard market conditions that allowed for necessary premium adjustments, rather than a decrease in incurred losses, which remained nearly flat. However, some upward pressure on the combined ratio is expected for 2025, reflecting tariff impacts and increased acquisition expenses. A deeper look into personal auto trends reveals that physical damage loss ratios have been improving rapidly, while liability coverage improvements have plateaued, raising concerns about legal system abuse and liability coverage responsiveness.

Homeowners’ insurance improvements were also driven primarily by premium increases, though a 2.5 percent decrease in net incurred losses, mainly from catastrophes, contributed. However, the 2025 outlook for homeowners is heavily influenced by the Los Angeles wildfires, with projections indicating that Q1 2025 could be the worst first quarter for the P&C industry in over 15 years. Current estimates suggest that the 2025 wildfires may lead to the costliest wildfire losses in U.S. history.

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, emphasized the persistent negative influence of adverse prior year development (PYD) on the profitability of commercial auto and general liability lines, noting that this trend has been observed for three consecutive years.  

In discussing general liability, Kurtz pointed out the substantial reserve strengthening undertaken during 2024.

“The 2024 net combined ratio of 110 included a staggering nine points of adverse prior year development, amounting to more than $9 billion of reserve strengthening, the highest seen in at least 15 years,” Kurtz said. “It is also concerning that the hard-market years 2020-2023, which saw significant rate increases, are also seeing reserve increases.”  

Conversely, workers compensation combined ratios continued to benefit from favorable PYD for the eighth consecutive year, indicating sustained underwriting profitability.  

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), presented an overview of the year’s average loss cost level changes and provided insights into the long-term financial stability of the workers compensation system.  

“The workers compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line,” said Glenn. “And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges.”  

*Note: Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View is a quarterly report available exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers.

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Technology, Wildfire

Data Granularity Key
to Finding Less Risky Parcels in Wildfire Areas

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As high-severity natural catastrophes – wildfires, floods, hurricanes, and others – become more frequent and more people move into riskier locales, insurance affordability and availability have become a challenge in many states.

Insurers underwrite and price coverage based on the risks they’re assuming, and rising premiums in these states have pushed more homeowners into residual market mechanisms, such as state-backed insurance pools or agencies. Reliance on these funds – which often provide more limited coverage at higher costs – is not sustainable in the long term.

To ensure market stability and continued insurance availability and affordability, insurers must leverage more granular and dynamic risk models that account for real-time environmental conditions, mitigation measures, and property-specific characteristics. A new paper by Triple-I and Guidewire – a provider of software solutions to the insurance industry – uses case studies from three California areas with very different geographic and demographic characteristics to show how such tools can be used to identify properties with attractive risk properties, despite their location in wildfire-prone areas.

California’s risk profile

In addition to its particular risk characteristics, California’s insurance challenge is exacerbated by a 1988 measure – Proposition 103 – that has constrained insurers’ ability to profitably insure property in the state. In a dynamically evolving risk environment that includes earthquakes, drought, wildfire, landslides, and damaging floods, regulatory interpretation of Proposition 103 has made it hard for some insurers to offer coverage in the state.

In some cases, this has led to insurers limiting or reducing their business in the state. With fewer private insurance options available, more Californians are resorting to the state’s FAIR Plan, which offers less coverage for a higher premium. For many, this “insurer of last resort” has become the insurer of first resort. This isn’t a tenable situation for the state or its policyholders. California’s insurance availability/affordability challenges will require a multi-pronged approach, and underlying every component is the need for granular, high-quality, reliable data.

Modeling based on granular data

Guidewire’s analysis, based on its HazardHub Wildfire Score, has shown that wildfire mitigation and home hardening can reduce wildfire damage by as much as 70 percent. But identifying less risky lots in such areas is no easy task.

“Every property being assessed for wildfire risk is unique,” the report says. “Therefore, it’s important to subject as many relevant variables as possible to analysis. For example, proximity of structures to fuel is important – but, to be more predictive, it helps to know more: What kind of fuel? Is there potential for a wind-driven event? Is the property on a hill? If so, is it north-facing?”

Guidewire’s model includes standard variables, such as slope, aspect, wildfire history, wind, and the amount of nearby vegetation. It also includes differentiators like vegetation type and fire-suppression success rate.

“The traditional approach to wildfire risk assessment has left many Californians without access to affordable property insurance coverage,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio. “Our research shows that with more detailed, property-level analysis, insurers can confidently offer coverage in areas previously deemed too risky.”

Important moves by California

California has taken steps to address regulatory obstacles to fair, actuarially sound insurance underwriting and pricing – most notably, the state’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, an ambitious plan released by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara in 2023 plan aimed at safeguarding the health of the insurance market while ensuring long-term sustainability. A key component of the plan is a requirement that insurers writing homeowners coverage in the state write no less than 85 percent of their statewide market share in areas identified by the commissioner as “under-marketed.”

Tightly focused, data-driven analysis using tools like the HazardHub Wildfire Score, can go a long way toward helping insurers meet those requirements by identifying less risky parcels in undermarketed areas.

“The Triple-I analysis highlights how next-generation tools and data can uncover lower-risk properties – even in high-risk areas – empowering insurers to expand coverage confidently and responsibly,” said Leo Tenenblat, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Data and Analytics at Guidewire.

Learn More:

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

California Risk/Regulatory Environment Highlights Role of Risk-Based Pricing

How Proposition 103 Worsens Risk Crisis in California

Auto Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

Florida Senate Rejects
Legal-Reform Challenge

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

The Florida House’s attempt to curtail recent legal system reforms met firm resistance from the state Senate this week, preserving the 2022 and 2023 legislation that stabilized the state’s property insurance market.

Aiming to reinstate one-way attorney fees in insurance litigation, the House added an amendment – originally part of a separate bill – to an unrelated Senate bill focused on creating legal protections for owners of former mining sites.

Filed by state Rep. Berny Jacques, the amendment would have restored Florida’s previous requirement for insurers to shoulder the insured’s legal costs, even if the insured’s jury award was only slightly higher than the settlement insurers offered. Current law stipulates that each side is responsible for their own fees.

Senate members refused to concur with the proposal and sent the bill back to the House, which can either remove Jacques’ amendment or let the entire bill die.

Insurers and policyholders benefit

Jacques’ amendment prompted instant criticism from industry leaders, notably Florida Insurance Commissioner Michael Yaworsky, who sent an email warning the governor’s legislative affairs director that it would dismantle “hard-won progress” achieved by the 2022-2023 reforms, according to a report by the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

That progress includes the introduction of 12 new insurers into Florida’s property sector after a multi-year exodus and a 23 percent decrease in lawsuit filings year over year, Yaworsky wrote.

Proponents of Jacques’ amendment argued it would return balance to the legal system, which had overcorrected to favor insurance companies at the expense of consumers.

Yet, in 2019, Florida accounted for just over 8 percent of U.S. homeowners insurance claims, but more than 76 percent of U.S. property claim lawsuits, pushing premium rates up to three times the national average. Post-reform, in 2024, 40 percent of all insurers in the state filed for rate decreases, with average home insurance premiums down 5.6 percent at the start of this year.

Reversing these reforms would reinvigorate fraudulent and unnecessary lawsuits, increasing insurer costs and, consequently, premium rates. Dulce Suarez-Resnick, an insurance agent based in Miami, told the Sun Sentinel that supporters predicted reforms wouldn’t be felt for three years.

“We are two years in, and I’ve already seen a lot of impact,” Suarez-Resnick said. “The Legislature needs to be patient. We have one more year to go.”

Reforms expected to remain intact

Though Florida’s 2025 legislative session was extended, the House has little time to push for further changes to the reforms. Even if the Senate somehow acquiesces and passes the amended bill, it is unlikely to survive – Gov. Ron DeSantis has vowed to veto any bill targeting tort reform and publicly condemned the House’s efforts to roll it back.

And Florida isn’t alone: Georgia successfully passed its own comprehensive tort reform package last month, after plaintiffs’ attorneys began transferring their marketing tactics to the neighboring state. State government moves like these are essential to eradicating legal system abuse and protecting all stakeholders from rising costs.

Learn More:

What Florida’s Misguided Investigation Means for Georgia Tort Reform

Florida Bills Would Reverse Progress on Costly Legal System Abuse

Florida Reforms Bear Fruit as Premium Rates Stabilize 

Georgia Targets Legal System Abuse

How Georgia Might Learn From Florida Reforms

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

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