Category Archives: Flood Insurance

Hurricane Season:More Than Wind & Water

Under the best of circumstances, the Atlantic hurricane season is a challenging time. Despite improved forecasting and analytical tools, pre-storm communication, and engineering, hurricane-related losses continue to climb.

But the 2020 season hasn’t come during the best of circumstances. This extremely active season arrived on the heels of a pandemic that hasn’t ebbed, accompanied by civil unrest and atypical wildfire activity that could draw attention and resources away from preparation and post-storm aid.

And, as if that wasn’t enough, it falls in the middle of what is arguably the most contentious, chaotic U.S. election year in modern history.

To say these new variables complicate resilience would be a gross understatement in a year whose (to use the technical insurance phrase) “general weirdness” would be difficult to overstate.

So, in a paper published today we review the current state of hurricane resilience – how forecasting, modeling, preparation, and mitigation have evolved – and how the insurance industry is working to help communities bounce back from hurricanes.

Demographics more than climate change

Nine of the 10 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history have occurred since 2004, and 2017, 2018, and 2019 were the largest back-to-back-to-back insured property loss years in U.S. history. Many would instinctively chalk up such numbers to climate change. But a careful look at the data suggests climate change isn’t the predominant driver of losses.

U.S. Census Bureau data indicate that the number of housing units in the United States increased most dramatically since 1940 in areas that are most vulnerable to weather-related damage. They also show that new homes are bigger and more expensive than in past decades.

Bigger homes full of more valuables, more cars and infrastructure in disaster-prone locales – these, more than climate trends, seem to be the dominant factors driving losses.

Not more, but wetter

Hurricanes may not be more frequent or significantly more intense due to climate change, but they seem to be getting wetter. Inland flooding has caused more deaths in the United States in the past 30 years than any other hurricane-related threat.

Early in the 2020 season, Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall along southeastern Louisiana and triggered flash flooding as far inland as northwest Wisconsin.  

“As the atmosphere continues to warm, storms can hold more moisture and bring more rainfall,” said Triple-I non-resident scholar and Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Dr. Philip Klotzbach. This trend could be exacerbated if, as some experts expect, storms begin traveling more slowly, adding to the moisture they would pick up from the ocean and drop over land.

This is why experts we talk with say, “Get flood insurance.”

We’ve come a long way – and have further to go

Our paper also looks at the evolution of hurricane modeling and forecasting, as well as developments in preparation and mitigation.

Better data and improved modeling have made private insurers comfortable writing coverage, like flood insurance, that was previously considered “untouchable” and enabled the creation of entirely new types of insurance products.

But challenges remain. Experts disagree as to which models are best, and the proprietary nature of these models can make it hard for regulators to determine whether filed rates based on them are unfairly discriminatory.

Hurricane preparation and damage mitigation have benefited from improved communication and public planning.

“Many people still don’t evacuate the way they should,” says Todd Blachier of Church Mutual Insurance, “but states like Louisiana, Florida, Alabama and Mississippi have gotten much better in terms of shutting down inbound roads and creating one-way egress to facilitate evacuation.”

He says officials are acting much more quickly and communicating more effectively, thanks in large part to improved information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other resources.

One area in which improvements could boost resilience is building codes and standards. A recent Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) study quantified the losses avoided due to buildings being constructed according to modern, hazard-resistant codes and standards. In California and Florida — two of the most catastrophe-prone states — FEMA found adopting and enforcing modern codes over the past 20 years led to a long-term average future savings of $1 billion per year for those two states combined.

Swiss Re: A Katrina-like hurricane could cause up to $200 billion in damage today

A memorial cross for the victims of Hurricane Katrina stands in the water near the bank of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet on August 22, 2019 in Shell Beach, Louisiana. According to researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Louisiana’s combination of rising waters and sinking land give it one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise on the planet. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Hurricane Katrina, which struck the United States in August 2005, remains the costliest insured North Atlantic hurricane on record and the most expensive natural catastrophe for the global re/insurance industry.  In 2020 dollars, according to a Swiss Re  report released today, total economic damage from Katrina totaled more than $160 billion.

An identical storm today “could easily reach” $200 billion, Swiss Re says.

To evaluate what Hurricane Katrina might look like in 2020 in terms of insured and economic losses, Swiss Re ran Katrina’s 2005 wind and surge footprint on its U.S. market portfolio using its probabilistic tropical-cyclone loss model.

“If Hurricane Katrina were to hit the U.S. in 2020 with the same wind and storm surge as 2005, but with current exposure information and updated flood protection and vulnerability assumptions, the privately insured losses in the U.S. alone could rise to $60 billion,” the report says. “This is true, despite the city (New Orleans) currently only having 80% of the population it did in 2005.”

Private insurance and the federal flood insurance program covered about $86 billion of the total loss, highlighting a protection gap largely driven by uninsured flood losses. Standard residential insurance policies exclude coverage for flood damage resulting from surface water, including storm surge caused by hurricanes; separate flood insurance policies are available through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program and private insurers.

“With Katrina, and even more recently with Harvey and Sandy and Florence, we’ve seen this profound protection gap where on average only one in six residences in the U.S. have a flood coverage policy,” said Marla Schwartz Pourrabbani, a Swiss Re natural catastrophe specialist and lead author of the report.

Today, a storm like Katrina would cause closer to $175 billion in damage because areas outside New Orleans, especially in other coastal states, have seen both increases in population and increased investments along the coast that add to the financial risk. Rising sea levels also contribute to the potential losses.

Swiss Re says the effects of climate change could drive total costs  higher.

“Considering that sea level in the barrier islands near New Orleans is now rising by over one inch every two years, a six-inch increase in sea level — and an event like this could happen in just over a decade,” the report says.

Mangroves and Reefs: Insurance Can Help Protect Our Protectors

Hurricanes and storm-related flooding are responsible for the bulk of damage from disasters in the United States, accounting for annual economic losses of about $54 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  

These losses have been on the rise, due, in large part, to increased coastal development. More, bigger homes, more valuables inside them, more cars and infrastructure – these all can contribute to bigger losses. The CBO estimates that a combination of private insurance for wind damage, federal flood insurance, and federal disaster assistance would cover about 50 percent of losses to the residential sector and 40 percent of  commercial sector losses. 

Recent research illustrates the benefits provided by mangroves, barrier islands, and coral reefs – natural features that frequently fall victim to development – in terms of limiting storm damage. In many places, mangroves are the first line of defense, their aerial roots helping to reduce erosion and dissipate storm surge. A healthy coral reef can reduce up to 97 percent of a wave’s energy before it hits the shore. Reefs — especially those that have been weakened by pollution, disease, overfishing, and ocean acidification — can be damaged by severe storms, reducing the protection they offer for coastal communities. 

In Florida, a recent study found, mangroves alone prevented $1.5 billion in direct flood damages and protected over half a million people during Hurricane Irma in 2017, reducing damages by nearly 25% in counties with mangroves. Another study found that mangroves actively prevent more than $65 billion in property damage and protect over 15 million people every year worldwide.  

A separate study quantified the global flood-prevention benefits of coral reefs at $4.3 billion.  

Such estimates invite debate, but even if these endangered systems provided a fraction of the loss prevention estimated, wouldn’t you think coastal communities and the insurance industry would be investing in protecting them? 

Well, they’re beginning to.  

The Mexican state of Quintana Roo has partnered with hotel owners, the Nature Conservancy, and the National Parks Commission to pilot a conservation strategy that involves coral reef insurance. The insurance component – a one-year parametric policy – pays out if wind speeds in excess of 100 knots hit a predefined area. Unlike traditional insurance, which pays for damage if it occurs, parametric insurance pays claims when specific conditions are met – regardless of whether damage is incurred. Without the need for claims adjustment, policyholders quickly get their benefit and can begin their recovery. In the case of the coral reef coverage, the swift payout will allow for quick damage assessments, debris removal, and initial repairs to be carried out.  

Similar approaches could be applied to protecting mangroves, commercial fish stocks that can be harmed by overfishing or habitat loss, or other intrinsically valuable assets that are hard to insure with traditional approaches.  

Hurricanes Don’t Just Affect Coasts; Experts Say: “Get Flood Insurance”

With the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity expected to be “well above average” in intensity; three named storms having formed already; and Tropical Depression Cristobal bringing flooding rains and powerful winds from the South to the Midwest as it made landfall in Louisiana, preparedness should be on the minds of everyone who could be affected – and that means more than just people in coastal states.

Cristobal’s low pressure area is forecast to move from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Midwest – just ahead of a cold front that will eventually absorb Cristobal’s remnants as it moves into southeastern Canada, according to Weather.com: “The combination of deep, tropical moisture from Cristobal and the cold front will wring out heavy rain along a swath from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Midwest. Strong winds will also develop in the Midwest and Great Lakes from this setup.”

If Cristobal remains a tropical depression when it crosses into Wisconsin, it would be the first tropical depression on record in the state, according to the National Weather Service in Milwaukee.

“Inland flooding has resulted in more deaths in the past 30 years from hurricanes and tropical storms in the U.S. than any other threat,” said CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller. “Though wind speeds and storm surge are important, and get a lot of the headlines, flash flooding from intense rainfall associated with the storm’s rainbands impact far more people and stretch over a much larger area.”

About 90 percent of all natural disasters in the U.S involve flooding. This is why experts like Dan Kaniewski – managing director for public sector innovation at Marsh & McLennan and former deputy administrator for resilience at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) – strenuously urge everyone to buy flood insurance.

If it can rain, it can flood

“Any home can flood,” Kaniewski said in a recent Triple-I webinar. “Even if you’re well outside a floodplain…. Get flood insurance. Whether you’re a homeowner or a renter or a business – get flood insurance. It’s not included in your homeowners policy, and most people don’t understand that.”

Dr. Rick Knabb – on-air hurricane expert for the Weather Channel, speaking at Triple-I’s 2019 Joint Industry Forum – was similarly emphatic:

“If it can rain where you live,” he said, “it can flood where you live.”

He recounted buying a new home, asking his agent about flood insurance, and being told, “You don’t need it.”

“I told him, ‘Get it for me anyway,’” Knabb said.

Flood insurance purchase rates too low

As the Triple-I blog previously reported, 2019 was the second-wettest year on record across the continental U.S., yet flood insurance purchase rates remain low. To illustrate the difference between having and not having flood insurance, Kaniewski described two scenarios related to 2017’s devastating Hurricane Harvey.

“The average [FEMA] payout for the uninsured homeowner in the Houston area was about $3,000,” Kaniewski said. “But if you were proactive and took out a relatively low-cost flood insurance policy…you would have received not $3,000 but $110,000. You’re not going to recover on $3,000, but with $110,000, you’d be well on the path to recovery.”

Unfortunately, he said, even inside designated floodplains, “two-thirds of homeowners do not have flood insurance.”

Coronavirus Wrap-up: Property/Casualty (4/7/2020)

Below are abstracts and links to recent articles related to coronavirus from a property and casualty insurance perspective.

Auto:
Less driving, fewer accidents: Car insurers give millions in coronavirus refunds

One of the largest car-insurance companies in the country and a smaller Midwestern auto insurer are refunding hundreds of millions of dollars to their policyholders, citing a dramatic drop in accident claims from Americans hunkered down in their homes, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Allstate providing more than $600M to auto insurance customers amid pandemic

Allstate announced that it’s providing a Shelter-in-Place Payback to help its personal auto insurance customers during the pandemic.

Business Interruption:

This insurance would have helped in coronavirus crisis; nobody bought it

PathogenRX, a parametric insurance policy developed by broker Marsh, Munich Re, and technology firm Metabiota, is designed to provide business interruption insurance in the event of a pandemic, Insurance Journal reports.

Wimbledon nets £100m coronavirus cancellation payout

When the coronavirus outbreak forced the cancellation of Wimbledon it looked like game, set, and match against the All England Club. It turns out, The Times reports, that the club has insurance that covers infectious diseases and is putting together a claim potentially in excess of £100 million.

Insurers warn on forced payouts for uncovered coronavirus losses

World insurers told governments on Monday that making them pay out on losses suffered due to the coronavirus that were not covered by policies risked destabilizing the insurance industry, Reuters reports.

Considering a business interruption insurance claim due to COVID-19? Check your policy first

Insurance brokers say viruses and pandemics are specific exclusions in many such policies, which are often included with standard property and casualty coverage. But whether COVID-19 is the basis for a business interruption claim remains an open question as government leaders and the plaintiffs’ bar wrestle over the issue.

How social inflation may affect coronavirus business interruption losses

COVID-19 could produce a big increase in social inflation, according to A.M. Best. The reason: expectations that businesses will sue their insurers in an attempt to access their business interruption coverage for losses relating to the coronavirus pandemic.

After SARS, insurers changed policies covering businesses

SARS infected 8,000 people and led to millions of dollars in business-interruption insurance claims – including a $16 million payout to a single hotel chain. As a result, The Washington Post reports, many insurers added exclusions to standard commercial policies for losses caused by viruses or bacteria.

Flood:

FEMA extends flood renewal period

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced that it will extend the grace period to renew flood insurance policies to help policyholders affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. FEMA said it would push back the grace period from 30 days to 120 days.

Property:

Florida’s property insurer of last resort, announced it will suspend cancellations and non-renewals for the next 45 days.

Wildfire:

Firefighters say coronavirus will obstruct emergency service, evacuations as wildfire season closes in

First responders are preparing for raging wildfires that they expect will consume thousands of acres and drive some residents from their homes in upcoming months. But this year, CNBC reports, preparations have stalled. The coronavirus pandemic has hit the country’s already strained emergency services, raising concerns over inadequate disaster relief during peak fire season.

Workers Compensation:

Catch coronavirus on the job? In Florida, workers comp may not cover you

Florida’s Chief Financial Officer has ordered the Division of Risk Management to fulfill workers’ compensation claims for frontline employees who work for the state, the Tampa Bay Times reports. But the order doesn’t include similar workers in the private sector.

2020 Hurricane Season Projected to Be “Above Normal”

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is projected to be “above normal,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach.

Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team have issued an early forecast of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes for the year, with above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

A typical year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are defined as Category 3, 4, and 5 storms, where wind speeds reach at least 111 miles per hour.

The forecast is based partly on the fact that El Niño conditions are unlikely this summer and fall.

“El Niño is warmer-than-normal water in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific,” Dr. Klotzbach said. “When it occurs, it tends to increase upper-level westerly winds that tear apart hurricanes when the try to develop.”

The chart below shows 2020 hurricane probabilities for 18 coastal states.

A lot can change between now and the peak of the season though, so an updated forecast will be issued on June 4.

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

For the full forecast report click here: 
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf

For information on hurricane-proofing your home and business, check out the following:

Flood Policy Renewal Period Extended

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced it is extending the grace period to renew flood insurance policies from 30 days to 120 days to help policyholders who may be experiencing financial difficulties due to the coronavirus pandemic. The extension applies to National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies with an expiration date between February 13 and June 15, 2020.

Said David Maurstad, the FEMA administrator who oversees the NFIP, “We want to make sure that policyholders don’t have to worry that their policy will lapse during the spring flood season or into the start of hurricane season.”

Mississippi Flood Insurance Purchases Low, Despite Wetter Rainy Seasons – And They’re Not Alone

Getty images

Hundreds of homes and businesses were damaged by flooding, as heavy rains inundated Jackson, Mississippi over the Presidents Day weekend, pushing the Pearl River to its third-highest crest ever.

“If these heavier rainfall events increase in frequency, our rivers and streams are going to be responding in line too,” said Suzanne Van Cooten, hydrologist in charge of the National Weather Service’s Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center to the Wall Street Journal.

Federal data show last year was the second wettest on record across the continental U.S., and Mississippi’s river communities are keeping an eye on forecasts after an unusually early start to the 2020 spring flood season following a soggy 2019.

Yet flood insurance take-up rates remain low. “The alarming truth is that entirely too many Americans could protect themselves with flood insurance, but simply don’t know the extreme risk of devastation they are facing, or even worse, they are deciding to take their chances and ignore it, said Sean Kevelighan, Triple-I CEO.  “Triple-I’s recent analysis of National Flood Insurance Program’s (NFIP) data which is now illustrated in an interactive map of Mississippi counties along the Pearl River show some counties’ flood insurance take-up rates are as low as .01 percent. In other words, as much as 99.9 percent of people living in an active flood prone area are without any protection or recovery method. The intent of sharing this information is to encourage Americans to take more action to protect themselves by identifying the right insurance coverage, coupled with taking recommended precautionary measures, all of which are proven to dramatically boost their ability to recover from disaster.”

“Unacceptably low”

Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster in the U.S., causing billions in economic losses each year.  According to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), 90 percent of natural disasters in the U.S. involve flooding.  Flood damage is excluded under standard homeowners and renters insurance policies, but, flood coverage is available as a separate policy from the NFIP and from some private insurers.

Flood insurance was long considered an untouchable risk by private insurers because they didn’t have a reliable way to measure the risk. In recent years, however, modeling firms are getting better at assessing flood risk, and insurers have become more comfortable underwriting it.

Triple-I’s 2018 Pulse survey found 15 percent of U.S. homeowners had flood insurance, up from 12 percent who had the coverage in 2016. A McKinsey & Co. analysis found that as many as 80 percent of Texas, 60 percent of Florida, and 99 percent of Puerto Rico homeowners lacked flood insurance. Munich Re has called flood insurance take-up rates “unacceptably low.”

Reasons often cited for lack of coverage is that it is too expensive, that homeowners are not aware they don’t have it, and that people underestimate the risk of flooding.

At Triple-I’s 2020 Joint Industry Forum, FEMA Deputy Administrator for Resilience Dan Kaniewski and Weather Channel Hurricane expert  Dr. Rick Knabb, talked emphatically about the need for flood insurance – even where banks don’t require it to provide mortgages.

“When we at FEMA talk about ‘resilience,’” Kaniewski said, “we mean preparedness. We mean mitigation. We mean insurance. Insurance is the best resilience tool.”

Knabb agreed, calling upon meteorologists around the world to “talk about insurance more.” He also called on insurance agents to discuss flood coverage for their customers who aren’t in flood zones.

“If it can rain where you live,” he said, “it can flood where you live.”

Triple-I’s insurance for resilience project

In this video, Sean Kevelighan, CEO of the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), talks about the Triple-I’s Resilience Hub that the organization began developing in 2019 in partnership with Aon and the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.

The Hub’s goal is to use data in a way that helps people visualize and understand the risk of natural catastrophes with which they are living as catastrophes become more severe and more people move into high-risk areas.

“We’re tracking hurricane paths all the way back to 1990 so that when we forecast with those relative years, people can better understand what the impact might be in today’s economy,” said Kevelighan.

The project also tracks public flood insurance take-up rates through the National Flood Insurance Program. The average take-up rate for flood insurance is only 12 percent for the nation.

The Hub is part of the Triple-I’s overall insurance for resilience project, which aims to build a coalition that includes government agencies such as FEMA, private sector stakeholders such as Aon, and academic institutions such as the Wharton Risk Center to maximize impact. The Hub’s goal is to provide in one location easy-to-use content to empower consumers to make data-driven decisions when it comes to managing their exposure to extreme weather events.  “What we want to drive in the long run is behavioral change. We want people to think twice about where they are living and how they’re living so that they can be more resilient.”

House approves TRIA, NFIP extensions as part of $1.4 trillion spending package

On Tuesday, December 17, the House approved a package of bills that includes a seven-year reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) and funding for the National Flood Insurance Program until September 30, 2020.

Numerous insurance industry groups applauded the extension of TRIA. The act has been an important support in the effort to supply terrorism insurance through the private market. Since it was enacted, the percentage of companies purchasing terrorism insurance has risen to 80 percent, and the price of coverage has fallen more than 80 percent.

The $1.4 trillion spending package also includes:

  • Federal funding ($25 million) for gun violence research for the first time in 20 years.
  • A repeal of Obamacare taxes, including a 2.3 percent excise tax on medical devices, a health insurance industry fee that would have taken effect in 2020, and the 40 percent “Cadillac” excise tax on the most expensive health-insurance plans.
  • The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019, which features provisions that make it easier for smaller employers to join open multiple-employer plans, ease non-discrimination rules for frozen defined benefit plans, and add a safe harbor for selecting lifetime income providers in defined contribution plans.

The bill is expected to pass the Senate and be signed by President Trump before government funding expires on December 20.

FEMA publishes flood insurance claim records going back to 1978

“New York City, USA – October 31, 2012: In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy the Battery Park Underpass is seen completely flooded along the West Street entrance looking north in Lower Manhattan.”

On June 11 the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) published data covering more than 2 million flood insurance claim records going back to 1978 on its OpenFEMA website. This is a giant leap toward helping scientists, policy-makers, and the public understand how the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) works, where flood damage occurs, and what the costs are to the nation.

“This data demonstrates FEMA’s commitment to build a culture of preparedness by providing insights to our stakeholders that can help close the nation’s insurance gap,” said Dr. Daniel Kaniewski, FEMA’s Deputy Administrator for Resilience, in a news release. That gap is quite sizable: FEMA estimates that only 3 percent of homeowners have flood insurance.

Private insurers, who have been carefully getting back into covering flooding in recent years should be able to use the data to grow in the flood insurance space. “The private market will now be able to identify areas with prior flood claims and historical flood insurance policies,” said David Maurstad, FEMA’s Deputy Associate Administrator for Insurance and Mitigation.

As useful as these data could be, the dataset does not include the exact addresses of affected buildings, to protect policyholders’ privacy. It does include ZIP code-level data on where policyholders received payments. A home buyer might not be able to learn the full history of flood risk for a property, as this South Carolina Post and Courier article points out.

However, the published data do enable analysis of how coverage has changed in a geographic area, and where NFIP claims have been filed for more than 40 years. Information such as: state, census tract, ZIP code, year of loss, and amount paid on claims are included. The dataset will be updated every 45 to 60 days and delivers the most specific amount of geographic data possible.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) has already used the data to create this animation showing the location of every NFIP claim in the contiguous United States, from 1970 through 2018.

The I.I.I. has more insights about flood insurance here.