Category Archives: Disaster Preparedness

Disaster Preparedness, Insurance Industry

2020 hurricane forecast updated: “Extremely active” season expected

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is projected to be “extremely active,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach.

Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University (CSU), and his team issued an updated forecast on August 5. They project the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will have 24 named storms (up from 20 in the previous forecast), 12 hurricanes (up from nine), and five major hurricanes (up from four).

The 24 named storms include the storms that have already formed. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The activity is driven in part by reduced vertical wind shear. Strong wind shear tears apart hurricanes. Observed wind shear has been very low in July, which means it’s also expected to be low at the peak of the season from August to October.

The probabilities of U.S. hurricane landfalls are also elevated simply because we are expecting more Atlantic storms. The U.S. has already experienced two landfalls this season with Hanna and Isaias.

People in hurricane-prone areas are advised to have a plan in place and follow the directions of local emergency managers if storms threaten.

Please click on the links below for Triple-I’s hurricane preparedness guides:


National Hurricane Preparedness Week
Hurricane Season Insurance Guide
How to Prepare for Hurricane Season
What to do When a Hurricane Threatens
Video: Create a Home Inventory
Video: Hurricane Insurance Guide

Disaster Preparedness

Isaias update: August 4, 2020

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During the evening of August 3 Hurricane Isaias hit North Carolina, flooding areas along the shore as well as inland. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that at the time of its landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, shortly after 11 p.m., Isaias carried sustained winds of 85 mph and was classified as a Category 1 hurricane. Isaias was downgraded to a tropical storm early on August 4, when its maximum sustained winds fell to 70 mph.

Forecasters warned that Isaias remains a dangerous, life-threatening storm as it moves up the Eastern Seaboard and could bring the strongest winds to New York City since superstorm Sandy in 2012.

Damaging winds, torrential rain, power outages and tornadoes are expected to affect metro areas including Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston. Residents in all coastal states should heed evacuation orders.

Hurricane preparedness guidance is available from Triple-I here.

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience

Isaias Expected to ApproachFlorida This Weekend

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Hurricane Isaias is expected to strengthen somewhat, to a strong Category 1 hurricane, as it crosses over the Bahamas Friday and Saturday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now forecasts Isaias will come extremely close to the east coast of Florida later this weekend. 

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the strongest winds in Florida will be felt from Pompano Beach to Palm Bay, where there’s potential for winds from 58 mph to 73 mph. Miami-Dade and most of Broward are predicted to see winds from 39 mph to 57 mph.

The NHC recently posted hurricane watches from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County line and forecasts two to four inches of rainfall from south-central to southeastern Florida, with potential totals of six inches. There is also the potential for some storm surge, with exact levels dependent on the future track and intensity of Isaias.

Residents are strongly encouraged to prepare for Isaias and other storms during this above-average hurricane season – particularly with the additional challenge of COVID-19.

Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony said South Floridians should “start to examine what other opportunities or options they may have to be out of South Florida.”

Florida has recently experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases. In preparation for the storm, the Florida Department of Emergency Management has closed all state-run COVID-19 testing sites.

“The more that we can do as individuals and focus on the things we can do to reduce the burden on government will be extremely helpful as the mayor, the county administrator are tackling different new challenges and trying to be innovative to the point where we’re not shutting down government completely, but at the same time, we’re not unnecessarily allowing for hazards and exposures to this virus,” Tony said.

Wind-caused property damage is covered under standard homeowners, renters, and business insurance policies. Renters’ insurance covers a renter’s possessions while the landlord insures the structure.

Property damage to a home, a renter’s possessions, and a business – resulting from a flood – is generally covered under FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies, if the homeowner, renter, or business has purchased one. Several private insurers also offer flood insurance.

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy. Nearly 80 percent of U.S. drivers choose to purchase comprehensive coverage.

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience

Isaias Meets COVID-19: South Floridians Advised to Consider Evacuation

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South Floridians should “start to examine what other opportunities or options they may have to be out of South Florida,” Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony said in a virtual press conference as a broad area of low pressure looked increasingly likely to turn into Tropical Storm Isaias.

Tropical storm-force gusts could arrive in Florida as early as Friday night, but Saturday is much more likely, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Miami.  

Tony said the biggest hurdle officials anticipate during the 2020 hurricane season is the ability to effectively maintain social distance while taking in large numbers of people at county storm shelters. Florida has recently experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases.

“The more that we can do as individuals and focus on the things we can do to reduce the burden on government will be extremely helpful as the mayor, the county administrator are tackling different new challenges and trying to be innovative to the point where we’re not shutting down government completely, but at the same time, we’re not unnecessarily allowing for hazards and exposures to this virus,” Tony said.

In preparation for the storm, the Florida Department of Emergency Management has said it will close all state-run COVID-19 testing sites at the end of business day today.

The storm knocked out power to more than 300,000 clients across Puerto Rico, according to the island’s Electric Power Authority. Minor damage was reported elsewhere in the island, where tens of thousands of people still use tarps as roofs over homes damaged by Hurricane Maria in September 2017.

Disaster Preparedness

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 impacts likely in Puerto Rico, Florida

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A broad area of low pressure called Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will likely become Tropical Storm Isaias in the eastern Caribbean. If it were to get named, it would be the fifth named storm to form this July. The most Atlantic named storms to form in July on record (since 1851) is 5 in 2005.

The storm has potential to generate flash floods and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as it strengthens. Tropical storm-force gusts could arrive in Florida as early as Friday night, but Saturday is much more likely, according to the National Weather Service Miami.

South Florida’s chances for experiencing tropical storm-force winds (speeds of at least 39 mph) stand at 15 percent to 25 percent in the next five days, the weather service said. It also said that “most of the rainfall this week will be over the interior and Gulf coast of southern Florida,” with rain chances increasing for Florida’s east coast on Friday.

Residents of Florida are strongly encouraged to prepare for Isaias and other storms during this above average hurricane season, and especially with the additional challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Broward County Sheriff Gregory Tony said in a news conference that the biggest problem officials anticipate is the ability to effectively social-distance while taking in large numbers of people at county storm shelters.

South Floridians should “start to examine what other opportunities or options they may have to be out of South Florida, to push inland or even to push out of the state in advance,” he said.

Click here for Triple-I’s hurricane preparedness tips.

Disaster Preparedness, Floods

Hurricane Hanna leaves wind damage and flooding in its wake

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Hurricane Hanna, 2020’s first Atlantic basin hurricane, made landfall during the late afternoon of Saturday July 25 as a Category 1 storm on the Corpus Christi, Texas, coast. It struck Padre Island with winds of 90 mph.

The Corpus Christi area dodged the hurricane’s heavier rain bands, but the storm still caused significant flooding and damage. Thousands were without power late July 26 as crews worked overtime to make repairs and Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued an emergency declaration for 32 counties.

By Sunday evening, the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and was slowly dying over the mountains of northern Mexico.

CoreLogic, a real estate data analytics provider, estimated that over 14,000 homes are at risk from Hurricane Hanna’s storm surge.

Flood damage to a home, a renter’s possessions, or a business is generally covered under FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies, if the homeowner, renter, or business has purchased one. Several private insurers also offer flood insurance.

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Hurricane

Hurricane Modeling: High-Tech MeetsLocal Insight

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Sophisticated computer modeling has led to great advances in forecasting weather-related disasters and their potential human toll and economic impact. The predictive power of these models has given insurers comfort writing coverage for risks – like flood – that were once considered untouchable and enabled them to develop innovative products.  

It can be tempting to think of hurricane forecasting and modeling as being all about high-resolution images, big data, and elaborate algorithms. While these technologies are critical to developing and implementing effective models, they depend heavily on local knowledge and “boots on the ground.” 

“After an event, we quickly send engineers to survey structural damage and look for linkages to the storm’s characteristics,” said Jeff Waters, senior product manager for risk modeler RMS. “Information gathered by our people on the ground is incorporated into our reconstruction of the event to help us identify drivers of the damage and inform our models.” 

Waters recounted how, in the wake of Hurricane Maria in 2017, an RMS team arrived in Puerto Rico on October 3 – 13 days after landfall – to validate a modeled loss estimate. During the week the team spent on the island, they found that damage to insured buildings was less than expected for a storm of Maria’s magnitude. They also observed that most insured buildings featured bunker-style reinforced-concrete construction and flat concrete roofs.  

“These buildings performed very well,” Waters said. “Reinforced concrete prevents significant structural damage, and, with less drywall and tiled flooring, interior damage from water intrusion is limited. Wood and light-metal structures – which tend to be in older neighborhoods where fewer properties are insured – fared far worse.”  

Such ground-level information not only helped validate RMS’s loss estimate – it also contributes to the model’s continuous improvement. You can read a more detailed account on the RMS blog. 

Recent research illustrates how advances in geospatial technologies allow qualitative local knowledge to be incorporated into mathematical models to evaluate potential outcomes of restoration and protection projects and support plans for mitigation and recovery.  Local knowledge mapping is one such approach to marrying modern technology and the advanced analysis it facilitates to the experiences of the individuals, communities, and businesses most affected by natural disasters. 

Auto Insurance, Disaster Preparedness, Homeowners Insurance

National Insurance Awareness Day

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June 28 is National Insurance Awareness Day, which means it’s a good day to evaluate your insurance coverage and assess your risk.

Triple-I has put together a video to help remind you to review your policies and consider any life changes that might necessitate updating your coverage.

This is also a good time to consider your catastrophe risk. Hurricane season started on June 1st – do you know the storm risk in your area? Do you need supplemental flood or wind insurance? Remember: anywhere that it can rain, it can flood.

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience

Modern Building Codes Would Prevent Billions In Catastrophe Losses

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A new study by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) could be instrumental to its effort to persuade states and localities to adopt up-to-date building codes. 

The study, titled Building Codes Save: A Nationwide Study of Loss Prevention, quantifies the physical and economic losses associated with flooding, hurricanes, and earthquakes that have been avoided due to buildings being constructed according to modern, hazard-resistant building codes and standards.  

In California and Florida – two of the most catastrophe-prone U.S. states – the study found that “adopting and enforcing modern hazard-resistant building codes over the past 20 years indicate a long-term average future savings of $1 billion per year for those two states combined.” 

“The combined savings from these two states demonstrate the high value of adopting I-Codes for hazard mitigation as a return on investment,” FEMA wrote, referring to model construction codes published by the International Code Council. 

“This gives us the foundation to back up the recommendations that we’re making,” FEMA building engineer Jonathan Westcott said at a recent conference on flood prevention. 

The study is part of FEMA’s broader effort to reduce the growing cost of natural disasters by convincing states and municipalities to adopt post-2000 building codes. Two-thirds of the nation’s localities haven’t adopted recent model codes, Westcott said. 

Communities often don’t understand the long-term benefits of adopting stronger codes. 

“Instead of just hearing about how expensive it is to add a foot of freeboard,” Wescott said, “they’re going to understand the financial benefits of doing that so they can make a balanced decision on what’s best for their community.”