On May 14 the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), co-hosted a
webinar with ResilientH20 Partners that focused on managing
extreme weather events in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. The panelists discussed
the changing role of stakeholders across the private sector, governments and
non-profit/NGOs.
The panelists drew from their backgrounds across government, business and insurance to discuss the immediate challenges stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, the downturn in the economy, and near-term flood and storm threats.
Dr. Michel Léonard,
Vice President & Senior Economist, Triple-I
Richard Seline,
Managing Director, ResilientH20 Partners
Panelists:
Dr. Daniel Kaniewski,
Managing Director, Public Sector Innovation, Marsh & McLennan
Jeff Moseley, CEO,
Texas Association of Business
Katie Sabo, State and
Local Leader, Managing Director, Public Sector Partnership, Aon
Moderator:
Chris Tomlinson,
Business Columnist, Houston Chronicle
Some of the key
takeaways include:
Having
a business continuity plan is a must-have for any business
Flooding
can occur anywhere (not just high-risk zones) – so getting flood
insurance is crucial
In
the midst of the pandemic, we can’t lose sight of the importance of investing
in mitigation and resilience, which will help on a material level post-event
The
COVID-19 crisis is putting unprecedented pressure on local governments – if private
investors have ideas for disaster mitigation, especially ones where return on
investment can be shown – now is the time to bring them, and they will be heard
Insurers
are and will be playing bigger roles in partnering with local governments to
build public/private solutions to disaster resilience
This
webinar is the first in a new series of thought leadership sessions that aims
to be a catalyst for public-private-partnerships focused on enhancing
pre-disaster risk mitigation at each step of the resilience value-chain, from
financing to development, management, technology selection and
crisis-management.
The Atlantic
hurricane season starts on Monday, June 1, but could get an early start this weekend with Tropical Storm Arthur.
Severe convective storms—tornadoes, hail, drenching thunderstorms with lightning, and damaging straight-line winds—are among the biggest threats to life and property in the United States. They were the costliest natural catastrophes for insurers in 2019, and this year’s tornado season is already shaping up to be the worst in nearly a decade.
A new
Triple-I paper describes how population
growth, economic development, and possible changes in the geography, frequency,
and intensity of these storms contribute to significant insurance payouts. It
also examines how insurers, risk managers, individuals, and communities are
responding to mitigate the risks and improve resilience through:
Improved
forecasting,
Better
building standards,
Early
damage detection and remediation, and
Increased
risk sharing through wind and hail deductibles and parametric insurance
offerings.
The 2020 tornado season coincided with most of the U.S. economy shutting down over the coronavirus pandemic. This could affect emergency response and resilience now and going into the 2020 hurricane season, which already is being forecast as “above normal” in terms of the number of anticipated named storms.
“As much as we are living today with the unimaginable impact of COVID-19, we must remind residents along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to remember it takes only one hurricane or tropical storm to ravage communities and to shatter lives,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I. “During National Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 3-9), we encourage residents to take a moment to ensure you have adequate financial protection for your property and possessions while also taking steps to make your home or business is more resilient to wind and water. Since we are all needing to stay home more, it’s even more important to make ourselves more resilient to natural catastrophes like hurricanes.”
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30.
Review Your Insurance Coverage Make sure you have the right type – and amount – of property insurance. The Triple-I recommends you conduct an annual insurance review of your policy(ies) with your insurance professional.
Standard homeowners insurance covers the structure of your house for disasters such as hurricanes and windstorms, along with a host of other disasters. It is important to understand the elements that might affect your insurance payout after a hurricane and adjust your policies accordingly.
At the very least, review the declarations page of your policy. This one-page information sheet offers details on how much coverage you have, your deductibles and insights into how a claim will be paid.
“You should ask your insurance professional if you have the right amount of insurance coverage to rebuild or repair your home, to replace its contents, and to cover temporary living expenses if your property is uninhabitable,” Kevelighan said. “You should also ask about flood insurance, which is separate and additional to traditional homeowners and small business insurance. Ninety percent of natural disasters involve flooding.”
Flood insurance, which is a separate policy from your property coverage, is offered through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and several private insurers.
Another common exclusion from a standard homeowners policy is sewer backup (also not covered by flood insurance). Backed up sewers can cause thousands of dollars of damage to floors, electrical systems, walls, furniture and other belongings. Sewer backup insurance is especially beneficial in hurricane-prone areas.
Protect Your Vehicles
Comprehensive auto, which is an optional coverage, protects your vehicle against theft and damage caused by an incident other than a collision, including fire, flood, vandalism, hail, falling rocks or trees, and other hazards.
Make Sure Your Possessions are Adequately Protected Imagine the cost of repurchasing all your furniture, clothing and other personal possessions after a hurricane. Whether you have homeowners insurance or renters insurance, your policy provides protection against loss or damage due to a hurricane. Creating an inventory of your belongings and their value will make it easy to see if you are sufficiently insured for either replacement cost or cash value of the items. When you create a photo or video catalog of your home’s possessions, it will also help expedite the insurance claims process if you sustain damage from a storm.
Make Your Property More Resilient Invest in items that will harden your property against wind damage, such as a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters. Triple-I also recommends you have your roof inspected annually by a licensed and bonded contractor to make sure it will hold up to high winds and torrential rains.
Preparing a hurricane emergency kit with a minimum two-week supply of essential items such as non-perishable food, drinking water and medications for every family member.
Creating an evacuation plan well before the first storm warnings are issued.
Tornadoes in
2020 claimed 73 lives as of April 24, according to this article citing NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.
The tornadoes have all occurred in eight southern states, with Tennessee and
Mississippi having the most. This is the deadliest year for tornadoes in the
U.S. since 2011.
Forecasters had
predicted that above-average temperatures in the
Gulf of Mexico would lead to severe storms across the Deep South and Southeast,
with the risk expanding into the Southern Plains and increasing dramatically
before swallowing traditional “Tornado Alley” across the central United States
by May.
According to Aon Benfield, the United States has recorded five
billion-dollar economic loss events resulting from severe convective storms (which
include tornadoes) so far in 2020. Insured losses from a March 27-30 outbreak are
estimated at $1 billion.
While COVID-19
is causing changes in some business practices, the nation’s insurers are open
and helping customers who sustained tornado-related damage. Property damage
caused by tornadoes is covered under standard homeowners, renters, and business
insurance policies, and under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto
insurance policy.
The Triple-I
has these recommendations when property damage occurs for renters, home and
auto owners:
Contact
your insurance professional and start the claims filing process.
Take
photos of any damage. A photographic record is useful when making an insurance
claim.
Make
temporary repairs to prevent further loss from rain, wind or looting; these
costs are reimbursable under most policies, so save the receipts.
Compile
a detailed list of all damaged or destroyed personal property. Do not throw out damaged property until you
meet with an insurance adjuster. If you have a home inventory, it will make the
claims-filing process easier.
Hold
off on signing repair contracts. Do your due diligence, deal with reputable
contractors, and get references. Be sure of payment terms and consult your
insurance adjuster before signing any contracts.
Check
to see if you’re eligible for additional living expenses (ALE). Standard
homeowners and renters insurance policies pay for the extra charges (e.g.,
temporary housing, restaurant meals) you incur over and above your customary
living expenses if your home is uninhabitable because of an insured loss. Save
all related receipts and, if you have vacated your home, make sure your insurer
knows how to contact you.
Small
Business Owners should
follow the same advice as above when it comes to filing a property damage
claim.
If your
business is forced to close temporarily or relocate because of direct physical
damage to its premises, file either a business income (also known as business
interruption) or extra expense claim, if you carry these coverages.
Tornado
forecasting and reporting
An upcoming Triple-I paper – Severe convective storms: Evolving risks call for innovation to reduce costs, drive resilience, scheduled to be published May 7 – discusses how improved reporting and forecasting and an apparent shifts in “Tornado Alley” affect the ability of businesses, communities, and insurers to mitigate tornado risks and prepare for resilience.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season activity is projected to be “above normal,” according to Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
Dr. Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State
University (CSU), and his team have issued an early forecast of 16 named
storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes for the year, with above-average
probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United
States coastline and in the Caribbean.
A typical year has 12 named
storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are
defined as Category 3, 4, and 5 storms, where wind speeds reach at least 111
miles per hour.
The forecast is based partly on the fact that El Niño conditions are
unlikely this summer and fall.
“El
Niño
is warmer-than-normal water in the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific,” Dr.
Klotzbach said. “When it occurs, it tends to increase upper-level westerly
winds that tear apart hurricanes when the try to develop.”
The chart below shows 2020 hurricane probabilities for 18 coastal states.
A lot can change between now and the peak of the season
though, so an updated forecast will be issued on June 4.
As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal
residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make
it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season,
regardless of how much activity is predicted.
The Federal
Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced
it is extending the grace period to renew flood insurance policies from 30 days
to 120 days to help policyholders who may be experiencing financial
difficulties due to the coronavirus pandemic. The extension applies to National
Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies with an expiration date between
February 13 and June 15, 2020.
Said David
Maurstad, the FEMA administrator who oversees the NFIP, “We want to make sure
that policyholders don’t have to worry that their policy will lapse during the
spring flood season or into the start of hurricane season.”
To help arrest the spread (“flattening
the curve”) of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19), businesses and schools
everywhere are supporting social distancing by expanding remote workspace opportunities.
At the Triple-I’s main offices in New York City and Arlington, Va., we
encouraged our team members effective Thursday, March 12, to avoid unnecessary
business travel and select the workspace arrangements that best support social
distancing.
Laura Favinger, Triple-I’s Chief Administrative
Officer explained in a Q&A session with James Ballot, the Triple-I’s Senior
Advisor, Strategic Communications, the organization’s Human Resources policies concerning
COVID-19, as well as some potential consequences of widespread remote work
during the crisis.
Q: How prepared is Triple-I to ramp up
to extended duration remote work?
LF: The Triple-I is very prepared to
conduct its business away from its two main offices for an extended period of
time, if need be.
We talk a lot about resilience because
we’ve experienced first-hand why resilience works. During Superstorm Sandy in
2012, the Triple-I’s main office in New York’s Financial District was forced to
close for nearly two weeks because 110 William Street was inaccessible due to
the flooding in lower Manhattan. The situation left most Triple-I team members without
access to vital equipment and information. Times like this, unfortunately, are
also when people need the Triple-I most. With this in mind, we’ve built out
capabilities to ensure that we’re able to fulfill our mission to be the “trusted source of unique,
data-driven insights on insurance.” We’re here to educate and inform the
media, consumers, regulators, educators and others with as little disruption as
possible. Since Sandy we’ve prepared for a wide range of contingencies by
migrating to a decentralized information backbone (cloud-based file sharing and
storage), accessible to the entire Triple-I team by laptop and tablet computers
and mobile devices.
Since I arrived at the Triple-I just
over two years ago, we’ve made significant strides toward creating even more
robust, user-friendly and, yes, resilient standardized IT platforms. One
collateral benefit of this effort is that we’ve brought on staff full-time
subject matter experts and researchers who are based throughout the U.S., which
has increased our ability to deliver fact-based information and answers to our many
audiences. We had no idea a pandemic was coming, but I guess that’s the essence
of resilience: assessing and mitigating your potential risks.
Q: What factored into the decision to
encourage your team members to choose the workplace situation that best
supports preventing the spread of Corona Virus Disease?
LF: For starters, we were prepared to
do this, which made the decision easier. As mentioned, our team is
geographically and demographically diverse. COVID-19 poses a greater threat to persons
over the age of 60 and those with existing health complications. We’re
encouraging them to decide for themselves what’s best. To simplify things,
we’re making full-time remote work available to everyone at the Triple-I’s NYC
and Arlington, Va. offices for the foreseeable future. We’ve set Friday, March
20 as our first milestone for review.
Q: Any potential “curveballs” that you’re becoming aware of?
LF: Well, the closing of schools is a bit of a disrupter because it
gets crowded at home when parents and their school-aged children spend all day
under the same roof. But supporting remote work in general has allowed us to
balance professional and personal concerns. One thing we all need to monitor,
however, will be the
prospect of millions of people working and studying from remote locations at
the same time—and this includes increased load from streaming media (which
already accounts for more than two-thirds of all Internet traffic). We’ll need to monitor the possibility of
overloaded information networks and other infrastructure-related consequences
and explore ways to mitigate the effect on the Triple-I’s productivity.
But the main goal—the only goal, actually at least for the
foreseeable future—is for us to do our part to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Last week (March 4-6) the National
Earthquake Conference — attended by
hundreds of experts, including
academics, engineers, government leaders, insurance professionals, and
scientists – took place in San Diego.
The day after the conference, as if to make a point, a 5.5.
magnitude earthquake that
struck Baja California, Mexico, shook San Diego.
While no damage was reported, a study released
at the conference by the San Diego chapter of the Earthquake Engineering Research
Institute showed that a magnitude 6.9 earthquake on San Diego’s Rose Canyon
Fault could damage 100,000 residences, cause widespread road and bridge
failures, and make parts of Mission Bay sink about a foot. Such a quake would
inflict an estimated $38 billion in building and infrastructure damage,
displacing 36,000 households and wreaking havoc on San Diego’s $245 billion
economy.
Don’t be scared, be prepared
Conference goals were to improve life safety when earthquakes
occur, to help communities learn how to recover faster, and to help prevent or
minimize physical earthquake damage through stronger building practices,
including research-informed, model building codes and standards.
Janet Ruiz, Triple-I’s Director of Strategic
Communications, who was one of the attendees, said one of the great points of
the conference was: “Don’t be scared, be prepared.”
Earthquake risk is insurable
One of the ways to be prepared for any disaster is to make sure you have adequate insurance. But as few as 13 percent of California homeowners have earthquake insurance.
Glenn Pomeroy of the California Earthquake Authority said earthquake risk is insurable. The average annual cost of earthquake insurance for a typical home in San Diego is between $100 and $444. Renters can secure financial protection from CEA for as little as $35 per month.
The devastating storms that ripped through central Tennessee on March
3 remind us that tornadoes continue to be one of the most destructive and
costly natural disasters.
Tornadoes are more common in the central United States, though they can occur almost anywhere in North America, including in large cities. They can happen at any time of year or at any time of the day or night, though they occur most frequently between early spring and July.
Below are some of the basic precautions to take before, during and after a tornado.
Before
The Red Cross recommends
the following precautions:
Identify a safe place in your home
where household members and pets will gather during a tornado: a basement,
storm cellar or an interior room on the lowest floor with no windows.
In a high-rise building, pick a
hallway in the center of the building. You may not have enough time to go to
the lowest floor.
In a mobile home, choose a safe
place in a nearby sturdy building. If your mobile home park has a designated
shelter, make it your safe place. No mobile home, however configured, is
safe in a tornado.
During
When
a tornado warning sounds or a tornado has been sighted, do not try to outrun
it. Stay calm but quickly seek shelter in the safest place possible.
If you are at
home, the safest
place to be is underground. Basements are usually the most protected area, but
if this is not an option take cover in central part of the house away from
windows—for example in a bathroom, closet, interior hallway or under a heavy
piece of furniture.
If you are in an
office building or skyscraper, go
directly to an enclosed, windowless area in the center of the building—away from
glass and on the lowest floor possible—and crouch down and cover your head.
Interior stairwells are usually good places to take shelter and, if they are
not crowded, allow you to get to a lower level quickly. Stay off elevators, you
could get trapped if the power is lost. If you are in a tall building, you may
not have enough time to evacuate to the lowest floor.
If you are at
school, follow the
staff instructions and go to an interior hall or room in an orderly way as
directed. Crouch low, head down, and protect the back of your head with your
arms. Stay away from windows and large open rooms like gyms and auditoriums.
If you are in a
car or truck, abandon the
vehicle and seek shelter in sturdy structure. If you are in open country, seek
shelter in the nearest ditch. Lie flat, face down on low ground, protecting the
back of your head with your arms. Get as far away from trees and cars as you
can.
If you are in
a mobile home, get
out! Even if the home is tied down, you are probably safer outside.
After
Damage caused by tornadoes is covered under standard
homeowners and business insurance policies, as well as the optional
comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.
If you sustain tornado damage:
Contact your insurer as soon as
possible and start the claims filing process. After tornadoes and other
disasters, insurance companies will reach out to those with the worst losses
first.
Take photos of any damage. A
photographic record is useful when making insurance claims.
Make temporary repairs to prevent
further loss from rain, wind or looting; these costs are reimbursable under
most policies, so save the receipts.
Make a detailed list of all
damaged or destroyed personal property. If you have a home inventory, it will
be extremely useful here. Don’t throw out damaged property until you have met
with an adjuster.
Don’t rush to sign repair
contracts. Do your homework, deal with reputable contractors and get
references. Be sure of payment terms and consult your insurance adjuster before
you sign any contracts.
If your home is uninhabitable
because of tornado damage, your homeowners or renters insurance provides
coverage for additional living expenses (ALE), such as hotel bills or meals
out. Save all related receipts and, if you have vacated your home premises,
make sure your insurance representative knows where and how to contact you.
Talk to your insurance
professional if you have any questions about any part of your insurance
coverage.
More on how to file a claim following a disaster here
Facts & statistics on tornadoes and thunderstorms here
COVID-19, the new coronavirus, has killed more than three
times as many people as the 2003 SARS epidemic.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that, as of 10
a.m. Central European Time (CET) on March 1, there were 87,137 confirmed
COVID-19 cases and 2,977 of the infected people had died. From November 2002
through July 2003, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC), 8,098 people worldwide became sick with severe acute
respiratory syndrome (SARS) and 774 died.
More people are believed to have been infected with COVID-19
than official statistics show. This is because confirmed infections are based
on positive tests for the virus, and some countries—including the United
States—have been doing very little testing. Further, the estimated 2 percent
death rate attributed to the disease is based on this unreliable infection
count.
Instead of SARS, some are now comparing COVID-19 with the Ebola pandemic of
2014 to 2016. Ebola is believed to have
killed about 50 percent of those it infected, but that outbreak was contained
before it reached the same number of infections as COVID-19.
So, is there a useful historic comparison
to be made with COVID-19? I would argue that there is: the “Spanish Flu” of
1918-19.
Policemen in Seattle during the influenza epidemic. December 1918. National Archives.
There is no vaccine for COVID-19, and
experts suggest it could take a year or
more to develop, test, manufacture, and distribute a vaccine. This suggests
there are few medical strategies for dealing with the current outbreak. It’s as
though we’re medically in the world of 100 years ago.
The 1918 flu virus had an estimated
mortality rate of about 2 percent and was very infectious. It is estimated that
as many as one-third of the entire world population was infected at some time,
so even a 2 percent mortality rate caused millions of deaths.
This raises a scary thought about how
the COVID-19 pandemic might play out: the Spanish Flu swept around the globe in
three phases. The first was in the
Spring of 1918 and, although it infected widely, had a relatively low mortality
rate. The second phase occurred in the Fall of 1918. This phase saw faster
infection spread and was much more deadly. The third phase was in February and
March of 1919 and was less infectious and less deadly than either of the two
prior phases.
World War I – with large concentrations
of soldiers in barracks and trenches and truck convoys moving across Europe –
may have contributed to this infectious arc. But the virus killed more people
than the war on every continent except Europe.
Insurance
industry impact
What would a COVID-19 pandemic mean
for insurers? The main impact would likely be on health insurers, since the
number of people seeking hospitalization would likely spike claims far beyond
anything their rate structures have anticipated. In 1918 hospitals were so overwhelmed
that auditoriums, indoor sports arenas, and similar spaces were set up to house
patients. Scarcity rates would apply; for example, the number of respirators
available currently is far short of what would be needed, and prices for new
supply would likely surge.
As I’ve written previously, for life insurers the effect of a severe pandemic would depend on
which segments of the population are likely to die. In 1918, in addition to the
very old, that virus struck unusually strongly at people in the prime working
years, triggering benefits from both individual and group life insurance. The
sudden impact of such unpredicted losses would affect all life insurers,
particularly the weaker ones.
In the property and casualty sector, the
line most directly affected is likely to be workers compensation, particularly
for health care workers and others exposed to the virus as a result of their
work—such as police, fire, and EMT. Another possible line affected is various
liability lines, involving claims from people who became sick from
manufacturing, dispensing, or receiving a vaccine or other treatments. In
recent years, Congress passed laws blocking such liability claims, but it’s not
clear that it will do so again today.
Beyond the direct effects to
insurance, there are growing forecasts that the global economy, and especially
particular sectors, could see dramatic cutbacks. Businesses and other
organizations that involve people gathering in crowds are already seeing such
effects, and insurance premiums that reflect these downturns are likely to
follow. However, claims are also likely to turn down (e.g., fewer auto
accidents), so the effect on those lines might actually be neutral or positive.
Learn from history
Today people and goods move around the
world with unprecedented speed. Urban environments and the transit systems that
serve them are as packed with people as any military convoy or trench network.
If COVID-19 follows a similar track to
that of the Spanish Flu, the current outbreak would turn out to have been a
mild phase. If this scenario is correct, the first phase would taper off in a
month or two, followed by several months in which the virus would appear to
have ended its threat.
We should continue developing vaccines
and other preventive/mitigating measures during this lull to better prepare for
the more virulent phase that might manifest in the second half of 2020. Failure
to do so would mean we’ve learned nothing from the worst global pandemic in the
last 100 years.
In this video, Sean Kevelighan, CEO of the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), talks about the Triple-I’s Resilience Hub that the organization began developing in 2019 in partnership with Aon and the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.
The Hub’s goal is to use data in a way that helps people visualize and understand the risk of natural catastrophes with which they are living as catastrophes become more severe and more people move into high-risk areas.
“We’re tracking hurricane paths all the way back to 1990 so that when we forecast with those relative years, people can better understand what the impact might be in today’s economy,” said Kevelighan.
The project also tracks public flood insurance take-up rates through the National Flood Insurance Program. The average take-up rate for flood insurance is only 12 percent for the nation.
The Hub is part of the Triple-I’s overall insurance for resilience project, which aims to build a coalition that includes government agencies such as FEMA, private sector stakeholders such as Aon, and academic institutions such as the Wharton Risk Center to maximize impact. The Hub’s goal is to provide in one location easy-to-use content to empower consumers to make data-driven decisions when it comes to managing their exposure to extreme weather events. “What we want to drive in the long run is behavioral change. We want people to think twice about where they are living and how they’re living so that they can be more resilient.”