Category Archives: Catastrophes

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane, Risk Management, Severe Convective Storm, Wildfire, Wind

Texas: A Microcosm
of U.S. Climate Perils

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Devastating flooding in central Texas over the July 4, 2025, weekend highlighted several aspects of the state’s risk profile that also are relevant to the rest of the country, according to the latest Triple-I Issues Brief. One is the rising incidence of severe inland flooding related to tropical storms.

Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in Mexico on June 29 and weakened quickly, but its remnant moisture drifted northward into Texas, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University and a Triple-I non-resident scholar.

“A slow-moving low-pressure area developed and helped bring up the moisture-rich air rom Barry and concentrated it over the Hill Country of central Texas,” Klotzbach said. “The soil was also extremely hard from prior drought conditions, which exacerbated the flash flooding that occurred.”

Such flooding far from landfall has become more frequent and severe in recent years.  In Texas – as in much of the United States, particularly far from the coasts – few homeowners have flood insurance. Many believe flood damage is covered by their homeowners’ or renters’ insurance. Others believe the coverage is not worth buying if their mortgage lender doesn’t require it.  In Kerr County, where much of the July 4 flooding took place, flood insurance take-up rates through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) were 2.5 percent.

Convective storms, fires, and freezes

But tropical storms aren’t always the impetus for flooding. In July 2023, a series of intense thunderstorms resulted in heavy rainfall, deadly flash floods, and severe river flooding in eastern Kentucky and central Appalachia. The conditions that lead to such severe convective storms also are prevalent in Texas.

Severe convective storms are a growing source of losses for property/casualty insurers. According to Gallagher Re, severe convective storm events in 2023 and 2024 “have cost global insurers a remarkable US$143 billion, of which US$120 billion occurred in the U.S. alone.”

Given its aridity and winds, it should be no surprise that Texas is highly subject to wildfire – but the state also has been increasingly prone to severe winter storms and debilitating freezes. On Valentine’s Day 2021, snow fell across most of Texas, accumulating as temperatures stayed below freezing and precipitation continued through the night. A catastrophic failure of the state’s independent electric grid exacerbated these conditions as snow and ice shut down roads and many homes suffered pipe bursts and multiple days without power.

Texas’s 2021 experience illustrates how grid instability can act as a “risk multiplier” for natural disasters. The entire U.S. electric power grid is increasingly vulnerable as the infrastructure ages and proliferating AI data centers increase demand.  

Need for data and collaboration

The severe damage and loss of life from the July 4 flooding have naturally raised the question of whether the Trump Administration’s reductions in National Weather Service  staffing contributed to the high human cost of this event. While it is hard to say with certainty, these cuts have affected how NWS works – for example, in its use of weather balloons to monitor weather. As early as April, staffing data gathered by NWS indicated that field offices were “critically understaffed”.

In June, panelists at Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum expressed concern about the impact of the federal cuts on weather monitoring and modeling, as well as programs to help communities adequately prepare for and recover from disasters. Triple-I has published extensively on the need for insurers to shift from exclusively focusing on repairing and replacing property to predicting events and preventing damage.

Collective action at all levels – individual, commercial, and government – is needed to mitigate risks, build resilience, and reduce fraud and legal system abuse. Triple-I and its members are committed to fostering such action and regularly provide data and analysis to inform the necessary conversations.

Learn More:

Triple-I Brief Highlights Rising Inland Flood Risk

Hurricane Helene Highlights Inland Flood Protection Gap

JIF 2025: Federal Cuts Imperil Resilience Efforts

Weather Balloons’ Role in Readiness, Resilience

ClimateTech Connect Confronts Climate Peril From Washington Stage

BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

JIF 2024: Collective, Data-Driven Approaches Needed to Address Climate-Related Perils

Texas Winter Storm Costs Raise Extreme-Weather Flags for States, Localities

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane, Wind

“Active” Hurricane Season Still Expected, Despite Tweak to CSU Forecast

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Recent developments in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea have led researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) to make slight improvements to their hurricane forecast for the 2025 Atlantic-basin season, in an update published Wednesday.

Triple-I non-resident scholar Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU, and the CSU TC-RAMS research team are now predicting 16 total named storms through the end of the year, a small drop from their original forecast of 17.

“The primary reason for the slight decrease in our outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean wind shear,” Klotzbach said. “High levels of Caribbean shear in June and July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

Klotzbach warned, however, that peak hurricane season – which typically occurs from mid-August through late October – could still be very active, despite current atmospheric conditions.

“The subtropical eastern Atlantic and portions of the tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal,” he said. “The current Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern is fairly similar to what we typically observe in July prior to active Atlantic hurricane seasons.”

Learn More:

Triple-I Facts + Statistics: Hurricanes

JIF 2025: Federal Cuts Imperil Resilience Efforts

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

BRIC Funding Loss Underscores Need for Collective Action on Climate Resilience

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Helene Highlights Inland Flood Protection Gap

FEMA Highlights Role of Modern Roofs in Preventing Hurricane Damage

Weather Balloons’ Role in Readiness, Resilience

ClimateTech Connect Confronts Climate Peril From Washington Stage

Business Risk, Catastrophes, Disaster Resilience, Emerging Risks, Industry Awards & Events, Industry Financials, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Regulation, Risk Management, Technology

JIF 2025: Litigation Trends, Artificial Intelligence Take Center Stage

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Identifying key risk trends amid an increasingly complex risk landscape was a dominant theme throughout Triple-I’s 2025 Joint Industry Forum – particularly during the panel spotlighting some of the insurance industry’s C-suite leaders.

Moderated by CNBC correspondent Contessa Brewer, the panel consisted of:

  • J. Powell Brown, president and CEO of Brown & Brown Inc.;
  • John J. Marchioni, chairman, president, and CEO of Selective Insurance Group;
  • Susan Rivera, CEO of Tokio Marine HCC (TMHCC); and
  • Rohit Verma, president and CEO of Crawford & Co.

Their discussion provided insight into how insurers can transform these uncertainties into opportunities for business development and for cultivating deeper connections with consumers.

Recouping policyholder trust

Given the volatility of the current risk environment – exacerbated by various ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the rising frequency and severity of natural catastrophes – it is more imperative than ever to reaffirm the intrinsic human element of insurance, the panelists agreed.

“That’s one of the most underappreciated aspects of our industry,” Marchioni said. “We make communities safer and put people’s lives and businesses back together after an unexpected loss. Being the calming force when you have unsettling events like this happen around the world is a big part of what we do.”

Yet prevailing public perception continues to indicate otherwise, even as insurers report repeated losses or nominal profits compared to other industries.

“The insurance industry may be the only industry where record profits are a problem,” CNBC’s Brewer added, because consumers tend to “not care whether it’s coming from your investments, or whether it’s coming from your underwriting business or your reinsurance. They just hear that you’re making record profits.”

Brown noted that consumer mistrust derives, in part, from “a very active plaintiffs’ bar,” which the American Tort Reform Association estimates spent over $2.5 billion for nearly 27 million ads across the United States last year. He further discussed how, though the average homeowners’ insurance premium rate in Florida will increase this year, his home state has enjoyed far more stable rates after tort reforms eased litigation costs on insurers.

Previous research by the Insurance Research Council (IRC) – like Triple-I, an affiliate of the Institutes – showed that most consumers perceive the link between attorney advertising and higher insurance costs. Crawford’s Verma, however, emphasized that this awareness does not necessarily translate into consumers understanding their own agency.

“It’s easier for homeowners to understand how the weather impacts potential losses and the fact that weather patterns have changed,” Verma said. “But when it comes to [legal system abuse], I don’t think that connection is as well understood.”

Reflecting on a record high in nuclear verdicts last year, Rivera suggested insurers must reconfigure how they communicate legal system abuse to consumers.

“Where are those hospital professional liability verdicts going to go?” he said. “They’re going to go back into the cost of health care at the end of the day.”

Leading the AI charge

Maintaining consumer centricity while implementing or experimenting with technological innovations – especially generative AI – was a unifying objective for all the panelists.

“We look at AI as an enabler,” Brown said, “so we can put teammates in a position to spend more time with customers, which is the most important thing.”

For Tokio Marine’s Rivera, AI “ultimately helps all of our insureds” by boosting operational efficiency while reducing operational costs, as well as facilitating more proactive risk management than ever before. A growing percentage of insurance executives appear to agree, as generative AI models continue to expedite data processing across the insurance value chain, reshaping underwriting, pricing, claims, and customer service.

Such efficiency, paired with the potential for improved decision-making, is crucial “in our dramatically changing environment,” Marchioni stressed.

“We have thousands of claims every day,” he said. “Thinking about lawsuit abuse as a backdrop – a claims adjuster, every day, has to make decisions regarding, ‘Do I settle this claim based on injuries or venue? What’s the value of the injury and of the claim? Who’s the plaintiffs’ attorney?’ These tools give more refined information so your knowledge workers can make better, more timely decisions.”

Generative AI fails, however, when base datasets are insufficient, outdated, or inaccurate, Brown pointed out. Training AI models uncritically can lead to outputs containing false and/or nonsensical information, commonly known as “hallucinations”.

At their current capacity, at least, AI models cannot draw the kinds of salient conclusions that adjustors and underwriters can, meaning AI could “change the way we work, but it’s not going to replace the jobs,” Verma said.

Though they do not currently exist in the United States at the federal level, AI regulations have already been introduced in some states, following a comprehensive AI Act enacted last year in Europe. With more legislation on the horizon, insurers must help lead these conversations to ensure that AI regulations suit the complex needs of insurance, without hindering the industry’s commitments to equity and security.

A 2024 report by Triple-I and SAS, a global leader in data and AI, centers the insurance industry’s role in guiding conversations around ethical AI implementation on a global, multi-sector scale, given insurers’ unique expertise in analyzing and preserving data integrity.

Learn More:

Insurance Affordability, Availability Demand Collaboration, Innovation

Executive Exchange: Insuring AI-Related Risks

Tariff Uncertainty May Strain Insurance Markets, Challenge Affordability

Reining in Third-Party Litigation Funding Gains Traction Nationwide

Claims Volume Up 36% in 2024; Climate, Costs, Litigation Drive Trend

Personal Cyber Risk Is Up; Why Isn’t Adoption of Personal Cyber Coverage?

U.S. Cyber Claims Surge While Global Rates Decline: Chubb

FBI: Elder Fraud Up; Bolsters Case for Personal Cyber Insurance

Triple-I Issues Brief: Cyber Insurance (Members Only)

Triple-I Issues Brief: Legal System Abuse (Members Only)

Auto Insurance, Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Emerging Risks, Flood Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane, Industry Awards & Events, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment, Market Conditions, Regulation, Risk Management, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wildfire, Wind

Insurance Affordability, Availability Demand Collaboration, Innovation

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Insurance industry executives and thought leaders gathered yesterday for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum (JIF) in Chicago to discuss the trends, economics, geopolitics, and policy influencing the market today, as well as ways to navigate these complexities while focusing on making their products affordable and available for consumers.

Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan in his opening remarks, noted that effective risk management depends on collaboration across stakeholder groups, as interconnected perils “present a community problem, not just an industry problem.”

JIF keynote speaker Louisiana Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple said facilitating community resilience planning is a top priority for the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). The NAIC’s 2025 initiative  – “Securing Tomorrow: Advancing State-Based Regulation” – aims to improve disaster mitigation and recovery by consolidating “the collective expertise of experienced state regulators from across the country, who can share real-time insights and proven strategies,” Temple said.

Among the initiative’s goals is aggregating more data from insurers to better understand challenges to affordability and availability on state levels, which the NAIC can then translate into actionable policy proposals. Such data calls, Temple said, help regulators, legislators, and policyholders focus on improving the cost drivers of insurance rates.

Louisiana has consistently been among the least affordable states for homeowners and auto insurance, according to the Insurance Research Council (IRC), in part because of its reputation for being plaintiff-friendly in civil litigation. Significant tort legislation has been approved in the state, but resistance to reform remains a challenge.

Getting to the roots of high premiums

 After a recent data call in his home state, Temple told the JIF audience, “For the first time in Louisiana, we’re not talking about only premiums. We’re talking about why premiums are where they are.”

A critical lack of transparency surrounding cost drivers persists, however. Temple criticized the National Flood Insurance Program’s Risk Rating 2.0 reforms for not publicly disclosing more information “for individuals and communities to identify and address factors driving up their premiums,” such as “whether increased rates take into account levee systems, pump stations, and other things designed to help mitigate against floods.”

Conversely, government programs like Strengthen Alabama Homes – and the numerous programs it inspired, including in Louisiana – have demonstrated success in communicating the benefits of resilience investments for consumers and policymakers.

“We’re seeing major positive results after just a few short years,” Temple said, noting that, since early 2024, over 5,000 homeowners not chosen for Louisiana’s grant program still decided to invest in the same hazard mitigation, as they may still qualify for the corresponding state-mandated insurance discounts.

“As natural disasters become more frequent and severe, state regulators will continue to drive forward common-sense policies that protect consumers and ensure that insurance remains available and reliable for at-risk communities,” Temple concluded. Developing the database required for such policies is a necessary first step.

Keep an eye on the Triple-I Blog for further JIF coverage.

Learn More

Significant Tort Reform Advances in Louisiana

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

Louisiana Reforms: Progress, But More Is Needed to Stem Legal System Abuse

Louisiana Is Least Affordable State for Personal Auto Coverage Across the South and U.S.

Who’s Financing Legal System Abuse? Louisianans Need to Know

Study Touts Payoffs From Alabama Wind Resilience Program

Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Hurricane

Study Touts Payoffs
From Alabama Wind Resilience Program

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A study by the Alabama Department of Insurance, in collaboration with the University of Alabama Center for Insurance Information and Research, shows that widespread adoption of IBHS FORTIFIED construction standards could dramatically reduce insurance claims from hurricanes, while also encouraging property/casualty insurers to maintain coverage in high-risk areas.

Homes built or retrofitted to FORTIFIED standards from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety were found to have suffered far less property damage and a lower volume of insurance claims from Hurricane Sally — which made landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2 storm in September 2020 — than non-FORTIFIED properties.

“The results show mitigation works and that we can build things that are resilient to climate change,” said the author of the study, Triple-I non-resident scholar Lars Powell.

A collective effort

Alabama’s proactive approach – which includes mandatory insurance discounts and a state-backed grant program for resilient construction – offers a model for risk mitigation and protecting homeowners from catastrophic winds of tropical cyclones.

“Alabama was an early adopter of FORTIFIED designations for wind loss mitigation,” the report says. “In 2025, there are more than 53,000 FORTIFIED houses in the state,” out of approximately 80,000 nationwide.

The state grants and insurance discounts have been a big motivator for homeowners to make the investment.  Lawmakers in other hurricane-prone states, such as Louisiana, are looking to Alabama’s strategy as they seek solutions for predicting and preventing losses from increasing natural disaster risks.

Learn More:

Outdated Building Codes Exacerbate Climate Risk

Resilience Investments Paid Off in Florida During Hurricane Milton

JIF 2024: What Resilience Success Looks Like

Mitigation Matters – and Hurricane Sally Proved It

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Severe Convective Storm, Tornado, Wind

2025 Tornadoes Highlight Convective Storm Losses

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Tornado activity in 2025 has surged, with more than 1,000 reported tornadoes as of May 28 and outbreaks spreading across nearly every state east of the Rockies this season, according to according to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Researchers have highlighted a shift in both the timing and geography of tornadoes, raising new safety concerns for communities outside the traditional Tornado Alley states.  The widening prevalence of tornado activity has some experts suggesting that the name “Tornado Alley” be retired.

The 1,010 tornadoes reported is almost 40 percent higher than the 15-year average of 727 tornadoes for the same period. Mississippi leads with 97 tornado reports, followed by Illinois (93), Missouri (89), and Texas (87), according to AccuWeather.

Severe convective storms – which include tornadoes – are among the most common, most damaging natural catastrophes in the United States. The result of warm, moist air rising from the earth, they manifest in various ways, depending on atmospheric conditions – from drenching thunderstorms with lightning, to tornadoes, hail, or destructive straight-line winds.

In 2024, according to Gallagher Re, the economic cost solely from weather and climate events was approximately $402 billion ($151 billion insured).  At least 41 percent of insured losses ($64 billion) resulted from severe convective storms.

So far this year, Gallagher said, the United States has recorded at least eight separate billion-dollar insured loss events from SCS activity so far in 2025. This compares to 13 such events by the end of May in 2024, 11 in 2023, six in both 2022 and 2021, and 12 in 2020.

 In addition to tornadoes, Gallagher said, large hail – measuring two inches or more in diameter – was a major factor in driving losses.

Learn More:

Severe Convective Storm Risks Reshape U.S. Property Insurance Market

Triple-I/Milliman: Severe Convective Storms Restrain P&C Growth

Triple-I Paper Looks at Convective Storms, Mitigation, and Resilience

Some Experts Suggest Retiring the Name “Tornado Alley”

Triple-I Facts + Statistics: Tornadoes and Thunderstorms

Hail: The “Death by 1,000 Paper Cuts” Peril

Triple-I Issues Brief: Severe Convective Storms (Members Only)

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Regulation, Risk Management, Wildfire

L.A. Homeowners’ Suits Misread California’s Insurance Troubles

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Two lawsuits filed in Los Angeles claim major California insurers colluded illegally to impede coverage in wildfire-prone areas, forcing homeowners into the state’s last-resort FAIR Plan.  Accusing carriers of violating antitrust and unfair competition laws, the two suits exemplify an ongoing disconnect between public and insurer perceptions of insurance market dynamics, exacerbated by legislators’ resistance to accommodating the state’s evolving risk profile.

An untenable situation

Both suits claim the insurers conspired to “suddenly and simultaneously” drop existing policies and cease writing new ones in high-risk communities, deliberately pushing consumers into the FAIR Plan. Left underinsured by the FAIR Plan, the plaintiffs argue they were wrongfully denied “coverage that they were ready, willing, and able to purchase to ensure that they could recover after a disaster,” Michael J. Bidart, who represents homeowners in one of the cases, said in a statement.

Established in response to the 1965 Watts Rebellion, the California FAIR Plan provides an insurance option for homeowners unable to purchase from the traditional market. Though FAIR Plans offer less coverage for a higher premium, they cover properties where insurance protection would otherwise not exist. California law requires licensed property insurers to contribute to the FAIR Plan insurance pool to conduct any business within the state, meaning they share the risks associated with those properties.

Intended as a temporary solution until homeowners can secure policies elsewhere, the FAIR Plan has become overwhelmed in recent years as more insurers pull back from the market. As of December 2024, the FAIR plan’s exposure was $529 billion – a 15 percent increase since September 2024 (the prior fiscal year end) and a 217 percent increase since fiscal year end 2021. In 2025, that exposure will increase further as FAIR begins offering higher commercial coverage for farmers, homebuilders, and other business owners.

With a policyholder count that has more than doubled since 2020, the FAIR Plan faces an estimated $4 billion total loss from the January fires alone.

Out of touch regulations

Homeowners are understandably frustrated with dwindling coverage availability, which currently afflicts many other disaster-prone states. Supply-chain and inflationary pressures, which could intensify under oncoming U.S. tariff policies, help fuel the crisis. But California’s problems stem largely from an antiquated regulatory measure that severely constrains insurers’ ability to manage and price risk effectively.

Despite a global rise in natural catastrophe frequency and severity, regulators have applied the 1988 measure, Proposition 103, in ways that bar insurers from using advanced modeling technologies to price prospectively, requiring them to price based only on historical data. It also blocks insurers from incorporating reinsurance costs into their prices, forcing them to pay for these costs from policyholder surplus and/or reduce their presence in the state.

Insurers must adjust their risk appetite to reflect these constraints, as they cannot profitably underwrite otherwise. Underwriting profitability is essential to maintain policyholder surplus. Regulators require insurers to maintain policyholder surplus at levels that ensure that every policyholder is adequately protected.

Restricting insurers’ use of prospective data, however, inhibits risk-based pricing and weakens policyholder surplus, facilitating policy nonrenewals and, in serious cases, insolvencies.

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara implemented a Sustainable Insurance Strategy to mitigate these trends, including a new measure that authorizes insurers to use catastrophe modeling if they agree to offer coverage in wildfire-prone areas. The strategy has garnered criticism from legislators and consumer groups, one of whom is suing Lara and the California Department of Insurance over a 2024 policy aimed at expediting insurance market recovery after an extreme disaster.

“Insurers are committed to helping Californians recover and rebuild from the devastating Southern California wildfires,” Denni Ritter, the American Property Casualty Insurance Association’s department vice president for state government relations, said in a statement about the suit. “Insurers have already paid tens of billions in claims and contributed more than $500 million to support the FAIR Plan’s solvency – even though they do not collect premiums from FAIR Plan policyholders.”

A call for collective action

Litigation prolongs – it does not alleviate – California’s risk crisis. Government has a crucial role to play in addressing it, from adopting smarter land-use planning regulations to investing in long-term resilience solutions.

For instance, Dixon Trail, a San Diego County subdivision dubbed the country’s first “wildfire resilient neighborhood,” models the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) standards for wildfire preparedness, but not at a cost attainable to most communities, and few local governments incentivize them. Launched by state legislature in 2019, the California Wildfire Mitigation Program is on track to retrofit some 2,000 houses along these guidelines, with the goal of solving how to fortify homes more quickly and inexpensively. Funded primarily by FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Assistance Grant program, the pilot has thus far avoided the same cuts befalling FEMA’s sister programs under the Trump Administration.

Regardless of what legislators do, California homeowners’ insurance premiums will need to rise. The state’s current home and auto rates are below average as a percentage of median household income, reflecting a combination of the increased climate risk and of the regulatory limitations preventing insurers from setting actuarially sound rates. Insurance availability will not improve if these rates persist.

To quote Gabriel Sanchez, spokesperson for the state’s Department of Insurance: “Californians deserve a system that works – one where decisions are made openly, rates reflect real risk, and no one is left without options.” Insurers do not wield absolute control over that system, and neither do legislators, regulators, consumer advocates, or any other singular group. Confronting the root causes of these issues – i.e., the risks – rather than the symptoms is the only path towards systemic change.

Learn More:

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

How Proposition 103 Worsens Risk Crisis In California

Tariff Uncertainty May Strain Insurance Markets, Challenge Affordability

Issues Brief: California Struggles to Fix Insurance Challenges (Members only)

Issues Brief: Wildfire: Resilience Collaboration & Investment Needed (Members only)

Catastrophes, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Lightning, Wildfire

Triple-I Brief Highlights Wildfire Risk Complexity

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Wildfire risk is strongly conditioned by geographic considerations that vary widely among and within states. The latest Triple-I Issues Brief shows how that fact played out in 2024 and early this year and discusses the importance of granular local data for underwriting and pricing insurance in wildfire-prone areas, as well as for much-needed investment in resilience.

The 2024 wildfire season in the South and Southwest was particularly severe, marked by such events as the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle fires in February and March and significant blazes in Arizona and New Mexico. The Southwest accounted for the largest number of residential structures destroyed by wildfire, and three of the top five areas for homes destroyed were in the South. 

California accounted for the largest number of homes at risk for extreme wildfires. In the first half, the state experienced an above-average number of fires, though most were contained before growing to “major incident” size. Subsequent rains suppressed subsequent wildfire conditions – and caused substantial flooding. 

But this rain contributed to an accumulation of fuels so that, when hurricane-force Santa Ana winds whipped through Los Angeles County in early January 2025, the conditions were right for fast-moving blazes to tear through Pacific Palisades and Eaton Canyon.

Temperature, humidity, wind, and topography vary too widely for a single “one size fits all” mitigation approach. This underscores the importance of granular data gathering and scrupulous analysis when underwriting and pricing insurance.  It is also important that insurers proactively engage with diverse stakeholder groups to promote investment in mitigation and resilience.

A recent paper by Triple-I and Guidewire – a provider of software solutions to the insurance industry – uses case studies from three California areas with very different geographic and demographic characteristics to go deeper into how such tools can be used to identify properties with attractive risk properties, despite their location in wildfire-prone areas.

Learn More:

Getting Granular to Find Lower-Risk Properties Amid Wildfire Perils

P&C Insurance Achieves Best Results Since 2013; Wildfire Losses, Tariffs Threaten 2025 Prospects

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Technology, Wildfire

Data Granularity Key
to Finding Less Risky Parcels in Wildfire Areas

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As high-severity natural catastrophes – wildfires, floods, hurricanes, and others – become more frequent and more people move into riskier locales, insurance affordability and availability have become a challenge in many states.

Insurers underwrite and price coverage based on the risks they’re assuming, and rising premiums in these states have pushed more homeowners into residual market mechanisms, such as state-backed insurance pools or agencies. Reliance on these funds – which often provide more limited coverage at higher costs – is not sustainable in the long term.

To ensure market stability and continued insurance availability and affordability, insurers must leverage more granular and dynamic risk models that account for real-time environmental conditions, mitigation measures, and property-specific characteristics. A new paper by Triple-I and Guidewire – a provider of software solutions to the insurance industry – uses case studies from three California areas with very different geographic and demographic characteristics to show how such tools can be used to identify properties with attractive risk properties, despite their location in wildfire-prone areas.

California’s risk profile

In addition to its particular risk characteristics, California’s insurance challenge is exacerbated by a 1988 measure – Proposition 103 – that has constrained insurers’ ability to profitably insure property in the state. In a dynamically evolving risk environment that includes earthquakes, drought, wildfire, landslides, and damaging floods, regulatory interpretation of Proposition 103 has made it hard for some insurers to offer coverage in the state.

In some cases, this has led to insurers limiting or reducing their business in the state. With fewer private insurance options available, more Californians are resorting to the state’s FAIR Plan, which offers less coverage for a higher premium. For many, this “insurer of last resort” has become the insurer of first resort. This isn’t a tenable situation for the state or its policyholders. California’s insurance availability/affordability challenges will require a multi-pronged approach, and underlying every component is the need for granular, high-quality, reliable data.

Modeling based on granular data

Guidewire’s analysis, based on its HazardHub Wildfire Score, has shown that wildfire mitigation and home hardening can reduce wildfire damage by as much as 70 percent. But identifying less risky lots in such areas is no easy task.

“Every property being assessed for wildfire risk is unique,” the report says. “Therefore, it’s important to subject as many relevant variables as possible to analysis. For example, proximity of structures to fuel is important – but, to be more predictive, it helps to know more: What kind of fuel? Is there potential for a wind-driven event? Is the property on a hill? If so, is it north-facing?”

Guidewire’s model includes standard variables, such as slope, aspect, wildfire history, wind, and the amount of nearby vegetation. It also includes differentiators like vegetation type and fire-suppression success rate.

“The traditional approach to wildfire risk assessment has left many Californians without access to affordable property insurance coverage,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio. “Our research shows that with more detailed, property-level analysis, insurers can confidently offer coverage in areas previously deemed too risky.”

Important moves by California

California has taken steps to address regulatory obstacles to fair, actuarially sound insurance underwriting and pricing – most notably, the state’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, an ambitious plan released by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara in 2023 plan aimed at safeguarding the health of the insurance market while ensuring long-term sustainability. A key component of the plan is a requirement that insurers writing homeowners coverage in the state write no less than 85 percent of their statewide market share in areas identified by the commissioner as “under-marketed.”

Tightly focused, data-driven analysis using tools like the HazardHub Wildfire Score, can go a long way toward helping insurers meet those requirements by identifying less risky parcels in undermarketed areas.

“The Triple-I analysis highlights how next-generation tools and data can uncover lower-risk properties – even in high-risk areas – empowering insurers to expand coverage confidently and responsibly,” said Leo Tenenblat, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Data and Analytics at Guidewire.

Learn More:

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

California Risk/Regulatory Environment Highlights Role of Risk-Based Pricing

How Proposition 103 Worsens Risk Crisis in California

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance

Louisiana Senator Seeks Resumption of Resilience Investment Program

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy recently took to the Senate floor to call for restoration of FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program, whose elimination the agency announced on April 4.

Established by Congress through the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018, the BRIC program has allocated more than $5 billion for investment in mitigation projects to reduce economic losses from floods, wildfires, and other disasters for hundreds of communities. Ending BRIC will cancel all applications from 2020-2023 and rescind more than $185 million in grants intended for Louisiana, leaving the 34 submitted and accepted projects funded by those grants in limbo.

Whereas the FEMA press release described BRIC as “wasteful and ineffective,” Cassidy identified “not doing the program and then having to rescue communities when the inevitable flood occurs – that is waste, because we could have prevented that from happening in the first place.”

Mitigation investment saves

Cassidy explained that flooding causes up to $496 billion in damages annually throughout the United States, adding that, “when we invest in levees and floodwalls, communities are protected when the storm hits, and we save billions on a recovery effort we never had to do.”

A 2024 study backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce supports this claim, which found that disaster mitigation investments save $13 in benefits for every dollar spent.

FEMA’s decision coincides with recovery efforts in Natchitoches, a small Louisiana city, after flash flooding inundated homes and downed power lines just weeks before. BRIC was set to fund improvements to the city’s backup generator system to pump out floodwater during severe weather.

Similarly, Lafourche Parish will lose $20 million to strengthen 16 miles of power lines, which Cassidy noted toppled “like dominos” during last year’s Hurricane Francine. Jefferson Parish residents displaced following Hurricane Ida in 2021 will lose the home elevation disaster grants they finally secured earlier this year.

“Louisiana was the third-largest recipient of BRIC’s most recent round of funding and is the largest recipient on a per capita basis,” Cassidy said. “Without BRIC, none of these projects would be possible.”

A national problem

Beyond Louisiana, Cassidy pointed to numerous states ravaged by severe storms so far this year, particularly inland communities where flooding is traditionally unexpected. At least 25 people died amid a severe weather outbreak across the southern and midwestern U.S. last month, underscoring a growing need for resiliency planning in non-coastal areas.

BRIC is one of many programs facing sudden termination under the Trump Administration. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia have filed a lawsuit demanding the federal government unfreeze essential funding, including BRIC grants. Though the administration is reportedly complying with a federal judge’s order blocking the freeze, the states involved claim funding remains inaccessible.

Louisiana has not joined the lawsuit, but Cassidy emphasized the congressional appropriation of the program and requested the fulfillment of preexisting BRIC applications. He argued that “to do anything other than use that money to fund flood mitigation projects is to thwart the will of Congress.”

As President Trump weighs disbanding FEMA entirely – even as FEMA responds to record-breaking numbers of billion-dollar disasters – it is imperative to recognize the vast co-beneficiary benefits of disaster resilience, and develop our partnerships across these stakeholder groups.

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