Category Archives: Business Insurance

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Business Risk, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Wildfire

P&C Insurance Achieves Best Results Since 2013; Wildfire Losses, Tariffs Threaten 2025 Prospects

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The U.S. P&C insurance industry’s financial outcomes for 2024 revealed a net combined ratio (NCR) of 96.6, demonstrating a substantial 5.1-point enhancement compared to the prior year and representing the sector’s most favorable underwriting performance since 2013, as detailed in a recent report by Triple-I and Milliman.

However, this progress faces potential impediments. The economic repercussions from early 2025 California wildfire losses, in conjunction with the unfolding influence of tariff policies, introduce factors that could dampen the industry’s performance throughout 2025 and possibly counterbalance the recent positive trajectory.

Noteworthy 2024 performance indicators:

  • The disparity in profitability between personal and commercial lines diminished, with both segments achieving an NCR below 100 for the year.
  • Personal auto insurers reported a 2024 NCR of 95.3, marking a considerable 9.6-point year-over-year improvement. This advancement was largely attributable to robust net written premium (NWP) expansion, with growth rates of 14.4 percent in 2023 and 12.8 percent in 2024.
  • Homeowners’ insurance experienced an 11.2-point improvement from 2023, as reflected in a 2024 NCR of 99.7. This represents the first instance of an NCR below 100 since 2019. Furthermore, the NWP growth rate reached 13.6 percent, surpassing the 12.4 percent growth observed in 2023 and achieving the highest level in over 15 years.

Impending challenges and market pressures:

  • The general liability segment is encountering increased financial strain, as evidenced by the least favorable NCR since 2016 and the third worst since 2010.
  • Early forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 suggest that the P&C industry may face its most challenging first-quarter results in over 15 years due to the extensive losses from the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires.
  • The imposition of tariffs, effective as of early May 2025, is beginning to exert pressure on fundamental growth metrics and is contributing to the escalation of replacement costs across various insurance lines, initially with personal auto, and subsequently affecting homeowners and renters, commercial auto, and commercial property.  

Economic dynamics and trends

Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, pointed out that P&C underlying economic growth in 2025 has doubled the growth of the U.S. GDP, with the former at 5 percent and the latter at 2.5 percent year-over-year.  

In addition, it is anticipated that P&C replacement costs will not increase as quickly as the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with projected rates of 1.0 percent, compared to 2.0 percent year over year.  

However, Léonard offered a cautionary perspective, stating, “While P&C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy—with stronger growth and lower replacement cost inflation—we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs”.  

He further elaborated on the potential adverse effects of tariffs: “These headwinds are expected to slow the sector’s momentum, potentially leading to a contraction later in the year that could exceed the overall GDP slowdown. Additionally, replacement costs, initially projected to rise more slowly than CPI, may accelerate and begin to outpace it, adding further pressure. Even though rising costs may lead to additional premium increases, these will likely be insufficient to offset slowing consumer spending and corporate investment.”

He explained how the timing of tariff impacts is staggered due to inventory management behavior, with the full effect of current tariffs yet to be realized.

Underwriting context and projections

Dale Porfilio, Chief Insurance Officer at Triple-I, attributes the notable 2024 turnaround in personal lines to the hard market conditions that allowed for necessary premium adjustments, rather than a decrease in incurred losses, which remained nearly flat. However, some upward pressure on the combined ratio is expected for 2025, reflecting tariff impacts and increased acquisition expenses. A deeper look into personal auto trends reveals that physical damage loss ratios have been improving rapidly, while liability coverage improvements have plateaued, raising concerns about legal system abuse and liability coverage responsiveness.

Homeowners’ insurance improvements were also driven primarily by premium increases, though a 2.5 percent decrease in net incurred losses, mainly from catastrophes, contributed. However, the 2025 outlook for homeowners is heavily influenced by the Los Angeles wildfires, with projections indicating that Q1 2025 could be the worst first quarter for the P&C industry in over 15 years. Current estimates suggest that the 2025 wildfires may lead to the costliest wildfire losses in U.S. history.

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, emphasized the persistent negative influence of adverse prior year development (PYD) on the profitability of commercial auto and general liability lines, noting that this trend has been observed for three consecutive years.  

In discussing general liability, Kurtz pointed out the substantial reserve strengthening undertaken during 2024.

“The 2024 net combined ratio of 110 included a staggering nine points of adverse prior year development, amounting to more than $9 billion of reserve strengthening, the highest seen in at least 15 years,” Kurtz said. “It is also concerning that the hard-market years 2020-2023, which saw significant rate increases, are also seeing reserve increases.”  

Conversely, workers compensation combined ratios continued to benefit from favorable PYD for the eighth consecutive year, indicating sustained underwriting profitability.  

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), presented an overview of the year’s average loss cost level changes and provided insights into the long-term financial stability of the workers compensation system.  

“The workers compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line,” said Glenn. “And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges.”  

*Note: Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View is a quarterly report available exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers.

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Insurance Industry, Insurers and the Economy

Tariff Uncertainty May Strain Insurance Markets, Challenge Affordability

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Chief Economist and Data Scientist, Dr. Michel Léonard

Recent tariffs issued by U.S. President Donald Trump are on track to increase the price of parts and materials used in repairing and restoring property after an insurable event. Analysts and economists, predict these price hikes will lead to higher claim payouts for P&C insurers and, ultimately, higher premiums for policyholders. 

After making several announcements since early March 2025, on April 2, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a minimum 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, with higher levies on imports from 57 specific trading partners. A general tariff rate became effective on April 5, while tariffs on imports from the targeted nations, ranging from 11 to 50 percent, took effect on April 9. A 25 percent tariff applies to all steel and aluminum imports and cars. President Trump says he might consider a one-month exemption to the auto industry, but as of this writing, no changes have been issued. 

Generally, tariffs can bring in revenue for the issuing government but lower the operating margin for impacted domestic businesses. Inventory and supply chain managers may attempt to stockpile in advance of the new rates becoming effective, which in turn can spike demand and quickly spike prices for sought-after items. Eventually, these cost hikes get passed on to consumers.  

Nonetheless, to ride out the situation, inventory and supply chain managers need a fundamental level of predictability regarding what the levies will cover, what the rates are, and when these rates go into effect. The timing and scope of President Trump’s tariff policies have been challenging to nail down, including for many goods particularly relevant to construction and auto manufacturing. For example, his initially declared rates for major trading partners – Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and China – have fluctuated as these nations announced reciprocal tariffs, and those levies, in turn, were met with higher US rates. 

Then, on April 9, President Trump declared a 90-day pause on tariffs. This change was actually not a true pause but a reduction of previous rates for several countries to 10 percent, except for China. The White House has declared on April 10 that the previously announced 125 percent rate against goods from China is actually now 145 percent. 

According to S&P, the levy on auto industry imports has been comparatively less dynamic as, despite confusing announcements from the White House, there has been no change to President Trump’s 25 percent rate declared on March 26, “which applies to all light-vehicle imports, regardless of country. The 25 percent tariff includes auto parts as well as completely built up (CBU) vehicles. The CBU autos tariff went into effect on April 3, 2025, while the auto parts portion is due to come into effect on May 3, 2025.” 

As insurers grapple with risk management and inflationary pressures, other challenges posed by the tariffs can include issues for policyholders, specifically coverage affordability and availability. One downstream side effect may be the increased risk of expanding the protection gap – uninsurance and underinsurance (UM/UIM) due to higher premiums and higher valuations that can come into play when materials costs rise. Across the fifty states and the District of Columbia, one in three drivers (33.4 percent) were either uninsured or underinsured in 2023, according to a recent report, Uninsured and Underinsured Motorists: 2017–2023, by the Insurance Research Council (IRC), affiliated with The Institutes. 

Our Chief Economist and Data Scientist, Dr. Michel Léonard, shares his analysis of how the tariffs may impact the P&C Insurance industry.  

“There’s no crystal ball”, say Dr. Léonard, “but prudent risk underwriting and risk management suggests the use of scenarios and increased price ranges for different tariff levels, the more precise impact of which can be updated based on actual price increases for individual prices.”  

Dr. Léonard outlines three types of P&C replacement cost scenarios given different tariff ranges: 

1) For single-digit tariffs, while inventories last, higher prices below that tariff’s rate;  

2) for single-digit tariffs on goods still economically viable post-tariffs, higher prices up to the tariff’s rate; and  

3) for single and double-digit tariffs on goods no longer economically viable, a multiple of the pre-tariff price for tariff-evading goods.  

His presentation, Tariffs and Insurance: Economic Insights can be previewed, but the full version is currently available exclusively to Triple-I members.  

Triple-I remains committed to keeping abreast of these and other developments crucial to the insurance industry’s future. For more information, we invite you to stay tuned to our blog and join us at JIF 2025. 

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Catastrophes, Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Wildfire

Despite Progress, California Insurance Market Faces Headwinds

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Even as California moves to address regulatory obstacles to fair, actuarially sound insurance underwriting and pricing, the state’s risk profile continues to evolve in ways that impede progress, according to the most recent Triple-I Issues Brief.

Like many states, California has suffered greatly from climate-related natural catastrophe losses. Like some disaster-prone states, it also has experienced a decline in insurers’ appetite for covering its property/casualty risks.

But much of California’s problem is driven by regulators’ application of Proposition 103 – a decades-old measure that constrains insurers’ ability to profitably write business in the state. As applied, Proposition 103 has:

  • Kept insurers from pricing catastrophe risk prospectively using models, requiring them to price based on historical data alone;
  • Barred insurers from incorporating reinsurance costs into pricing; and
  • Allowed consumer advocacy groups to intervene in the rate-approval process, making it hard for insurers to respond quickly to changing market conditions and driving up administration costs.

As insurers have adjusted their risk appetite to reflect these constraints, more property owners have been pushed into the California FAIR plan – the state’s property insurer of last resort.  As of December 2024, the FAIR plan’s exposure was $529 billion – a 15 percent increase since September 2024 (the prior fiscal year end) and a 217 percent increase since fiscal year end 2021. In 2025, that exposure will increase further as FAIR begins offering higher commercial coverage for larger homeowners, condominium associations, homebuilders and other businesses.

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has implemented a Sustainable Insurance Strategy to alleviate these pressures. The strategy has generated positive impacts, but it continues to meet resistance from legislators and consumer groups. And, regardless of what regulators or legislators do, California homeowners’ insurance premiums will need to rise.

The Triple-I brief points out that – despite the Golden State’s many challenges – its homeowners actually enjoy below-average home and auto insurance rates as a percentage of median income. Insurance availability ultimately depends on insurers being able to charge rates that adequately reflect the full impact of increasing climate risk in the state. In a disaster-prone state like California, these artificially low premium rates are not sustainable.

“Higher rates and reduced regulatory restrictions will allow more carriers to expand their underwriting appetite, relieving the availability crisis and reliance on the FAIR plan,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio.

With events like January’s devastating fires, frequent “atmospheric rivers” that bring floods and mudslides, and the ever-present threat of earthquakes – alongside the many more mundane perils California shares with its 49 sister states – premium rates that adequately reflect the full impact of these risks are essential to continued availability of private insurance.

Learn More:

California Insurance Market at a Critical Juncture

California Finalizes Updated Modeling Rules, Clarifies Applicability Beyond Wildfire

How Proposition 103 Worsens Risk Crisis in California

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Business Risk, Highway Safety, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

Improved Commercial Auto Underwriting Profitability Expected After Years of Struggle

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The commercial auto insurance line has struggled to achieve underwriting profitability for years, even before the inflationary conditions that have been affecting property/casualty lines more recently. This trend has been accompanied by steady growth in net written premiums (NWP).

This weakness in underwriting profitability has been driven by several causes, according to a new Triple-I Issues Brief. One is the fact that vehicles – both commercial vehicles and personal vehicles they collide with – have become increasingly expensive to repair, thanks to new materials and increased reliance on sensors and computer systems designed to make driving more comfortable and safer. This well-established trend has been exacerbated by supply-chain disruptions during COVID-19 and continuing inflation in the pandemic’s aftermath.

Distracted driving and litigation trends also have played a role.

However, Triple-I sees some light on the horizon for commercial auto in terms of the line’s net combined ratio – a standard measure of underwriting profitability calculated by dividing the sum of claim-related losses and expenses by earned premium. A ratio under 100 indicates a profit and one above 100 indicates a loss.

As the chart below shows, the estimated 2024 net combined ratio for commercial auto insurance has improved slightly since 2023, and further improvement is expected over the next two years.

These projected improvements are based on an expectation of continued premium growth – due more to aggressive premium rate increase than to increased exposure – as the rate of insured losses levels off.

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Industry Financials, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

Personal Lines Underwriting Results Improve, Reducing Gap With Commercial Lines

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The U.S. property and casualty insurance industry experienced better-than-expected economic and underwriting results in the first half of 2024, according to the latest forecasting report by Triple-I and Milliman.  The report was released during a members-only webinar on Oct. 10.

The industry’s estimated net combined ratio of 99.4 represented a 2.3-points year-over-year improvement, with commercial lines continuing to outperform personal lines. Combined ratio is a standard measure of underwriting profitability, in which a result below 100 represents a profit and one above 100 represents a loss. 

Much of the overall underwriting gain was due to growth in personal lines net premiums written. Commercial lines underwriting profitability remained mostly flat.

“The ongoing performance gap between personal and commercial lines remains, but that gap is closing,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio. “The significant rate increases necessary to offset inflationary pressures on losses are driving the improved results in personal auto and homeowners. With that said, the impact of natural catastrophes such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton threaten the improved homeowners results and are a significant source of uncertainty.”

During the webinar Q&A period, Porfilio provided insight on the potential impact of Hurricane Milton on the Triple-I 2024 net combined ratio forecast during the Q&A portion. One key figure regarding potential catastrophe losses is the impact on the 2024 net combined ratio forecast of adding one additional billion dollars of catastrophe losses. Each additional billion dollars of catastrophe losses is an impact of one tenth of a percent on the forecast.

Triple-I has loaded an estimate for catastrophe losses for the second half of 2024 based on historical experience, trends, economic projections, etc. prior to Milton, so there is no expectation of needing to add $30 billion to $40 billion – the recent estimate published by Gallagher Re.

If there was a need to add an additional $30 billion in catastrophe losses, that would be a +3.0-point impact on the forecast.

The net combined ratio for homeowners insurance of 104.9 was a six-point improvement over first-half 2023.  The line is expected to achieve underwriting profitability in 2026, with continued double-digit growth in net written premiums expected in 2025.   

Personal auto’s net combined ratio of 100 is 4.9 points better than 2023. The line’s 2024 net written premium growth rate of 14.5 percent is the highest in over 15 years. 

Jason B. Kurtz – a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman – elaborated on profitability concerns within commercial lines. Commercial lines 2024 net combined ratio remained relatively flat at 97.1 percent. Improvements in commercial property, commercial multi-peril, and workers compensation were offset by continued deterioration in commercial auto and general liability.

“Commercial auto expectations are worsening and continue to remain unprofitable through at least 2026,” he said. “General liability has worsened and is expected to be unprofitable through 2026.”

Michel Léonard, Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, said P&C replacement costs are expected to overtake overall inflation in 2025.

“P&C carriers benefited from a ‘grace period’ over a few quarters during which replacement costs were increasing at a slower pace than overall inflation,” Dr. Léonard said. “That won’t be the case in 2025.”  

It’s not too late to register for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum: Solutions for a New Age of Risk. Join us in Miami, Nov. 19 and 20.

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

Strike’s Duration Will Determine Impact on P/C Insurance Industry

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By Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, Chief Economist and Data Scientist, Triple-I 

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike on Tuesday, Oct 1. The strike is expected to affect more than 20 ports along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast, including the ports of New York and New Jersey, Baltimore and Houston.  

Focusing specifically on the strike’s impact on the property/casualty industry – and given the specific goods transiting through those ports – the impact will be most direct for homeowners, personal and commercial auto, and commercial property. More specifically, the strike may lead to increased replacement costs and delays in the supply and replacement of homeowners’ content, such as garments and furniture; of European-made vehicles and vehicle replacement parts; and of concrete, especially for commercial construction.  

However, the strike’s impact will be significantly mitigated by current inventories for each of the impacted insurable goods and the tightness of related just-in-time supply chains. At minimum, Triple-I estimates, the strike would have to last one to two weeks to trigger further sustained increases in P/C replacement costs or accelerate a current slowdown in P/C underlying growth.   

 Another way the insurance industry would be affected is from losses from coverage protecting against adverse business costs of events, such as strikes. These coverages include, but are not limited to, business interruption, political risk, credit, supply-chain insurance, and some marine and cargo. However, most such policies have waiting periods ranging from five to 10 days, and then deductibles, before payment is triggered. As a result, losses for those lines are likely to be limited if the strike lasts less than one to two weeks.  

 Using a one to two-week timeline is helpful: The last major longshoremen’s strike in the United States – at the port of Long Beach, Calif., in 2021 – lasted one week.   

Business Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions, Risk Management, Workers Compensation

NCCI Event Shines a Light on Workers Comp

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William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

The recent National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) Annual Insights Symposium (AIS) in Orlando, Fla., provided important context and clarity around the state of the workers compensation line of business. As a new senior research actuary for Triple-I, my prior knowledge of this line could best be summarized by the following words from one peer-reviewed study of a reserving project I conducted more than two decades ago: Long-tail, unprofitable.

I recently assumed responsibility for forecast modeling of the property/casualty industry, which includes workers comp. In this role, I’d seen the line’s 2023 net combined ratio at 87 – the lowest (ie., most profitable) in the past five years. But I did not yet have deep understanding of the underlying trends driving these numbers.

I saw the AIS as an opportunity to gain that knowledge, and the event delivered.

The net combined ratio of 87 – as reported by Triple-I using National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) data sourced by S&P Global Market Intelligence – was also the ninth straight calendar year in a row under 100. According to NCCI, the success of the workers comp line in recent years represents the convergence of three factors:

  • Payroll increases
  • Moderate severity increases, and
  • Larger-than-expected frequency declines.

 “The overall numbers for workers compensation show a financially healthy system,” said Donna Glenn, NCCI’s chief actuary.

Payroll increases

The line’s 2023 direct written premium (DWP) increased 2.6 percent nationally – due primarily to another strong year of payroll growth at 6.2 percent, according to NCCI.Rising wages contributed the most to that figure, with increases in all industry sectors resulting in a combined wage growth of 3.9 percent.  Improved job creation contributed 2.3 percent, with all sectors except transportation and warehousing seeing increased employment. Payroll growth was partially offset by state-approved premium rate decreases.

Moderate severity increases

Claim severity remains moderate year over year, at 3 percent in 2023, despite indemnity claim severity at 5 percent. Medical claim severity for 2023 trended at a low 2 percent, in line with the 20-year trend of 1.8 percent and below the 3.5 percent in 2022. Medical claims less than $500,000 increased 5 percent; however, claims above $500,000 decreased 16 percent, driven primarily by several large losses in 2022.

Also, more states have adopted physician medical fee schedules from 2012 to 2022, which has shifted medical cost category shares from more expensive inpatient claims to outpatient claims, as well as lower drug claims. Outpatient claims increased from 23 percent of all claims to 27 percent and drug claims decreased from 12 percent to 7 percent of all claims.

Larger-than-expected frequency declines

Overall claim frequency decreased 8 percent in 2023, compared to the 20-year average decrease of 3.4 percent. Workers compensation claims frequency has only increased twice in the past 20 years – once in 2010 from the destabilization in the construction sector in 2009 and again in 2021 from COVID-19 impacts in 2020.

From 2015 to 2022, workers comp claims frequency benefited from workplace safety improvements and technology advances, which helped the decline in all cause of injury categories, including the two largest shares of strain and slip/falls. During this same period, the largest decline in claim frequency by part of the body was in lower-back claims. Finally, the recent slowing employment market churn has also improved claim frequency as claims decline when job tenure rises.

Stephen Cooper, senior economist at NCCI, speaking on the state of the economy and its impact on workers comp, said job growth and steadily increasing wage rates continue to favor the workers compensation system. He also gave an overview of the contribution to labor force by age and generation from 1980 to 2030, including changes in claim share from 2020 actuals to 2030 forecasts. Overall, the double-digit growth in labor force of 24 percent in 2000 over 1980 and 18 percent in 2020 over 2000 is expected to fall to only 4 percent in 2030 over 2020.

The only age group with an expected increasing contribution to the labor force from 2020 to 2030 are those age 65 and older. The contribution to labor force for the age group 16 to 24 is expected to remain flat from 2020 to 2030 however their representative share of Workers Compensation claims has the largest expected increase from 9% to 11 percent.

Beyond the numbers

 The symposium provided valuable insight into several factors affecting workers comp, including the role of AI and innovation in workplace safety technology. In a panel moderated by Damian England, NCCI’s executive director of affiliate services, the audience got to see a demonstration of AI camera monitoring of warehouse employee activity and the use of wearable technology to highlight improper lifting techniques.

“It is clear that safety technologies will be a vital part of future safety initiatives,” England said. “They may even be a gamechanger for evaluating and improving workplaces and reducing injuries.”

AIS also touched on challenges facing today’s workers, from climate to mental health.

“Our new NCCI research shows worker injuries increase by as much as 10 percent on very hot days, as well as on wet and freezing days, compared to mild weather,” said Patrick Coate, NCCI senior economist. “High temperatures impact construction and other outdoor workers most, while cold and wet weather leads to a lot more slip and fall injuries.”

Anae Myers, assistant actuary at NCCI, focused on the difference between claims that include mental health diagnosis versus those that do not.

“New research from NCCI shows that claims exceeding $500,000 are 12 times more likely to be diagnosed with an associated mental condition during the course of treatment, underscoring the potential for the impact of mental health in large claims,” Myers said.

I left the conference with a better understanding of workers comp rate making and the indices to track for future forecasts. Many thanks to Cristine Pike and Madison White at NCCI for their hospitality and guidance, as well as to all the attendees who patiently provided their expertise and generously offered their support when I introduced myself to them and to this stunning line of insurance.

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Cyber Risk, Insurance Industry

The latest reports from FBI and ITRC reveal that cyber incidents in 2023 broke records for financial loss and frequency.

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Cyber incidents reported to the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) in 2023 totaled 880,418. These attacks caused a five-year high of $12.5 billion in losses, with investment scams making up $4.57 billion, the most for any cybercrime tracked. Phishing, with 298,878 incidents tracked (down from its five-year high in 2021 of 323,972), continues to reign as the top reported method of cybercrime.

The 2023 Data Breach Report from Identity Theft Resource Center (ITRC) reveals that last year delivered a bumper crop of cybersecurity failures – 3,205 publicly reported data compromises, impacting an estimated 353,027,892 individuals. Meanwhile, supply-chain attacks increased, and weak notification frameworks further increased cyber risk for all stakeholders.

Email compromise, cryptocurrency fraud, and ransomware increase

In addition to record-high financial losses from cybercrimes overall in 2023, the report revealed trends across crime methodology and targets. Investment fraud was the costliest of all incidents tracked. Within this category, cryptocurrency involvement rose 53 percent, from $2.57 billion in 2022 to $3.94 billion. Victims 30 to 49 years old were the most likely group to report losses.

Ransomware rose 18%, and about 42 percent of 2,825 reported ransomware attacks targeted 14 of 16 critical infrastructure sectors. The top five targeted sectors made up nearly three-quarters of the critical infrastructure complaints: healthcare and public health (249), critical manufacturing (218), government facilities (156), information technology (137), and financial services (122).

Adjusted losses for 21,489 business email compromise (BEC) incidents climbed to over 2.9 billion. The IC3 noted a shift from dominant methods in the past (i.e., fraudulent requests for W-2 information, large gift cards, etc.). Now scammers are “increasingly using custodial accounts held at financial institutions for cryptocurrency exchanges or third-party payment processors, or having targeted individuals send funds directly to these platforms where funds are quickly dispersed.”

The report disclosed a $50,000,000 loss from a BEC incident In March of 2023, targeting “a critical infrastructure construction project entity located in the New York, New York area.”

The IC3 says it receives about 2,412 complaints daily, but many more cybercrimes likely go unreported for various reasons. Complaints tracked over the past five years have impacted at least 8 million people. The FBI’s recommendations for solutions to minimize risk and impact include:

  • Ramping up cybersecurity protocols such as two-factor authentication.
  • More robust payment verification practices.
  • Avoiding engagement with unsolicited texts and emails.

The scale of 2023 data compromises is “overwhelming.”

According to the ITRC, the surge in breaches during 2023 is 72 percent over the previous record set in 2021 and 78 percent over 2022. To add more perspective, the ITRC notes that “the increase from the past record high to 2023’s number is larger than the annual number of events from 2005 until 2020, except for 2017.”

Meanwhile, as the report highlights, two other outsized trends converged: increasing complexity and risk. The number of organizations and victims impacted by supply-chain attacks skyrocketed. The notification framework conspicuously weakened, too. Since some laws assign liability for notification to organizations owning the leaked data, the notification chain would stop there, leaving downstream stakeholders unaware. For example, a software company servicing nonprofits might duly notify its direct B2B customers but not the individuals served by the nonprofit organization.

The ITRC has been reviewing publicly reported data breaches since 2005, and it now has a database of more than “18.8K tracked data compromises, impacting over 12B victims and exposing 19.8B records.” This ninth report forecasts a bleak outlook for the coming year. Specifically, “an unprecedented number of data breaches in 2023 by financially motivated and Nation/State threat actors will drive new levels of identity crimes in 2024, especially impersonation and synthetic identity fraud.”

The faster a breach is identified and reported, the faster all potentially affected parties can take measures to minimize impact. However, reporting regulations can vary across jurisdictions and businesses, and their supply chain partners may hesitate to disclose breaches for fear of impacting revenue and brand reputation. ITRC outlines its forthcoming uniform breach notification service designed to enable due diligence, emphasizing swift action and coordination with business and regulatory authorities. The service will be offered for a fee to companies looking to better handle cyber risk in their supply chains and regulatory requirements. Other recommendations include the increased use of digital credentials, facial identification/comparison technology, and enhancing vendor due diligence. 

The increased risk and rising financial losses from cyber risk likely drive growth for the cyber insurance market, which tripled in volume in the last five years. Gross direct written premiums climbed to USD 13 billion in 2022. For a quick rundown of how cyber insurance coverage supports risk management for organizations of all sizes, take a look at our cyber risk knowledge hub. To learn more about the fastest-growing segment of property/casualty, look at our recent Issues Brief.

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Risk Management

Beyond Fire: Triple-I Interview Unravels Lightning-Risk Complexity

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Lightning is a more complex peril than it is often given credit for being, according to Tim Harger, executive director of the Lightning Protection Institute (LPI). In a recent interview with Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan, Harger discussed the importance of preparing for and preventing damage from this risk, which is second only to flooding when it comes to costly weather events.

People typically think about fire damage when they think about lightning. But Harger said, “Beyond the fire is the destruction of electrical wires and infrastructure that supports everything we do to communicate and to conduct business.”

If lighting strikes any of these structures, he said, “Activity is stopped.”

Harger cited the case of an East Coast furniture manufacturer that was struck.

“That one lightning strike cost them just over a million dollars in damage,” he said. “Yes, there was the typical fire that caused structural damage, but what was impacted on the ‘inside’ was even more costly. They had damaged inventory, production downtime, and loss of revenue during the repairs.”

Investment in a lightning protection system could have saved this business owner – and his insurer – the million dollars lost and prevented business interruption. Nearly $1 billion in lightning claims was paid out in 2018 to almost 78,000 policy holders, according to LPI.

“Lightning strikes about a 100 times every second,” Harger said. “When installed properly, lightning protection systems are scientifically proven to mitigate the risks of a lightning strike.”

 A lightning protection system consists of six parts: 

  • Strike termination device,
  • Conductors,
  • Grounding,
  • Surge protection,
  • Potential equalization, and
  • Inspection. 

Architects and engineers play an important role in specifying and designing these systems, and installation is completed by certified lightning protection contractors. When properly installed lightning is intercepted by the strike termination device and energy is routed through the conductors and into the grounding system, preventing impact to the structure or electrical infrastructure.

“Businesses already install fire alarms and sprinkler systems to mitigate greater risks of fires,” Harger said. “Lightning protection systems prevent a lightning strike from causing any damage. So the investment in a lightning protection system prevents personal injury and the costly impact of even one strike.”

Several insurers offer premium discounts for policyholders who invest in lightning protection systems. LPI invites insurance providers who are interested in sharing their customer incentives to contact them at lpi@lightning.org.

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Legal Environment, Market Conditions, Workers Compensation

Group Captives Offer Cost-Sensitive Companies Opportunities to Savein Face of Inflation

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Today’s inflationary conditions may increase interest for group captives – insurance companies owned by the organizations they insure – according to a new Triple-I Executive Brief.

Group captives recruit safety-conscious companies with better-than-average loss experience, with each member’s premium based on its own most recent five-year loss history. Additionally, the increased focus on pre-loss risk management and post-loss claims management can drive members’ premiums down even further by the second and third year of membership.

“Each owner makes a modest initial capital contribution,” states the paper, Group Captives: An Opportunity to Lower Cost of Risk. “The lines of coverage written typically are those with more predictable losses, such as workers compensation, general liability, and automobile liability and physical damage.”

With these benefits, the group captive model can help to control spiraling litigation costs. This is particularly important as attorney involvement in commercial auto claims – notably in the trucking industry – drives expensive litigation and settlement delays that inflate companies’ expenses.

Indeed, a 2020 report from the American Transportation Research Institute found that average verdicts in the U.S. trucking industry grew from approximately $2.3 million to almost $22.3 million between 2010 and 2018 – a 967 percent increase, with the potential for even higher verdicts looming.

Group captives can improve control over these costs through careful claims monitoring and review, often through providing additional layers of support that improves claims adjusting effectiveness and efficiency.

“Given that members’ premiums are derived from their own loss history, this is yet another way that they are able to lower their premiums, proactively managing and controlling the losses that do occur,” the Triple-I report mentions. “Group captives can provide a viable way to protect companies across several lines of casualty insurance. Their prominence is likely to grow as economic and litigation trends continue to increase costs.”

Most companies that join group captives are safety-conscious, despite often being entrepreneurial risk takers. “While they embrace the risk-reward trade-off, they’re not gamblers,” said Sandra Springer, SVP of Marketing for Captive Resources (CRI), a leading consultant to member-owned group captive insurance companies. 

“They are successful, financially stable, well-run companies that have confidence in their own abilities and dedication to controlling and managing risk,” Springer added. “They believe they will outperform actuarial projections, and a large percentage of them do.”

Learn More:

Backgrounder: Captives and Other Risk-Financing Options

Firm Foundation:  Captives by State

White Paper: A Comprehensive Evaluation of the Member-Owned Group Captive Option

Video: Executive Exchange: Triple-I and Captive Resources

From the Triple-I Blog:

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