By Sayon Deb, Director of Insights, UL Standards & Engagement

In just five years, lithium-ion battery fires linked to e-mobility devices have evolved from a fringe risk into a mainstream safety and liability crisis – particularly in dense urban areas, like New York City, where adoption of these devices has outpaced regulatory safeguards.

In addition to the obvious public safety threat, e-mobility battery related fires represent a significant and expanding liability exposure for insurers, property managers, and city agencies. Our latest report – developed in collaboration with Oxford Economics – sets out to answer a more fundamental question: What is this crisis truly costing the city?

The answer, conservatively estimated, is up to $519 million in combined human and economic loss between 2019 and 2023. This figure includes fatalities, injuries, and structural property damage

Why Now? Why New York?

The dramatic rise in fire incidents – an estimated eightfold increase from 21 in 2019 to as many as 187 incidents in 2023 – correlates strongly with the influx of low-cost, uncertified e-bikes and scooters. New York City’s unique combination of traffic congestion, delivery-based gig work, and dense multi-family housing has made it a case study in how quickly innovation can outstrip risk management.

Data from the Fire Department of New York, the Consumer Product Safety Commission, and UL Solutions’ Lithium-Ion Battery Fire Incident Database formed the foundation of our modeling. This helped us generate incident estimates of fatalities, injuries, and structural properties damages.

Oxford Economics translated these incident reports into cost estimates using a rigorous, conservative methodology by applying federal valuation metrics for loss of life and injury. Fatality costs were calculated using the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Value of a Statistical Life, set at $13.2 million per life as of 2023. Non-fatal injury costs were derived as severity-weighted fractions of that value, ranging from minor injury to critical injury, in accordance with DOT and Office of Management and Budget economic guidance.

Our analysis then integrated structural fire cost benchmarks from both Triple-I and the National Fire Protection Association. Triple-I’s data was particularly important in defining the upper-bound estimates for property loss. Claims data on the average insurance payout for residential fire damage provided a grounded, actuarial counterweight to NFPA’s generalized national averages.

This dual-source approach allowed us to capture a more realistic range of likely losses across different housing types, from NYCHA public units to private homes.

A growing blind spot for insurers

From a risk-modeling standpoint, e-mobility fire incidents don’t map easily to conventional insurance categories. Many e-mobility users, particularly gig economy workers, rely on leased, used, or modified e-bikes and e-scooters to meet delivery demands. Some of these devices are powered by third-party or uncertified batteries or, in some instances, contain second-hand components. This creates a messy risk environment in which it’s hard to know who owns what, how it has been maintained, or how it’s being used. Moreover, fires resulting from these devices often fall outside the scope of standard product warranties or manufacturer responsibility. This makes it difficult to determine who’s responsible when something goes wrong.

For insurers, this presents a growing blind spot. Traditional assumptions around property and contents coverage did not include high-risk devices charged in hallways or shared living spaces or for ignition sources that are not part of conventional product recall channels.

A $300 imported battery with no certification can trigger a six-figure claim, and those risks are becoming more common.

The Path Forward

Regulatory momentum is improving. New York City’s Local Law 39, signed in 2023, bans the sale and lease of uncertified e-mobility devices. In July 2024, New York Governor Hochul enacted additional statewide measures to support battery safety and user education. Federal legislation aimed at establishing nationwide safety requirements for lithium-ion batteries used in e-bikes and e-scooters is making its way through Congress.  While these are positive steps, enforcement and awareness remain uneven, leaving significant gaps in consumer protection and risk mitigation.

From our perspective at ULSE, a multi-pronged strategy is essential:

• Better enforcement of safety standards for batteries and chargers.
• More robust public education on safe charging practices.
• Trade-in and swap programs that encourage delivery workers to discard unsafe batteries.
• Underwriting models that consider device certification, consumer behavior, and building type.
• Improved incident reporting frameworks that enable cities and insurers to collect better data and therefore better track risk exposure.

With better data, smarter standards, and more coordinated public-private action, the future of e-mobility will thrive with safety at its center.

Mr. Deb will be among the risk and insurance industry thought leaders speaking at Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum (JIF) in Chicago on June 18, 2025. It’s not too late to register to attend this insight-driven event.