All posts by Jeff Dunsavage

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Wildfire

Less Severe Wildfire Season Seen; But No Less Vigilance Is Required

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

This wildfire season is expected to be less intense than normal, but people in high-risk areas should be aware of and prepared for potential damage, according to Craig Clements, a professor of meteorology and climate science at San José State University.

“There are days people really need to be careful,” said Dr. Clements, who directs the Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center and is a Triple-I non-resident scholar. “High fire days are typically hot, dry, and windy. If there’s ignition, these fires can spread quickly, depending on the fuel type.”

Despite record-breaking conflagrations across the Northern Hemisphere in recent years, U.S. wildfire frequency (number of fires) and severity (acres burned) have been declining in recent years and in 2023 were among the lowest in the past two decades.

While that trend is positive – reflecting progress in prevention of human-ignited wildfires – it isn’t a reason for complacency.  Another long-term trend has been the doubling of the share of natural catastrophe insured losses from wildfires over the past 30 years, according to Swiss Re. This reflects the impact of a growing number of people living in the wildland-urban interface – the zone of transition between unoccupied and developed land, where structures and human activity intermingle with wildland and vegetative fuels.

A 2022 study in the journal Frontiers in Human Dynamics found that people are moving to areas that are increasingly vulnerable to catastrophic wildfires.

“They’re attracted by maybe a beautiful, forested mountain landscape and lower housing costs somewhere in the wildland-urban interface,” said University of Vermont environmental scientist Mahalia Clark, the paper’s lead author. “But they’re just totally unaware that wildfire is something they should even think about.”

To prepare, people should keep an eye out on the National Weather Service, social media, or watch the news, to ensure they are ready for any potential risks, and be on the lookout for Red Flag Warning days.

Dr. Clements also recommends referring to the National Interagency Fire Center website, which is updated daily for fire risks in particular regions. Triple-I suggests looking into the Wildfire Prepared Home designation program, which helps homeowners take protective measures for their home and yard to mitigate wildfire risks.

It’s also important for homeowners to remember that, following wildfires, rains can result in landslides and debris flows that often are not covered by insurance policies. It’s especially important to understand the difference between “mudslides” and “mudflow” and to discuss your coverage with an insurance professional.

Learn more:

2024 Wildfires Expected to Be Up From Last Year, But Still Below Average

Tamping Down Wildfire Threats: How Insurers Can Mitigate Risks and Losses

Mudslides Often Follow Wildfire; Prepare, Know Insurance Implications

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Wildfires: State of the Risk

Catastrophes, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Risk Management

Accurately Writing
Flood Coverage Hinges on Diverse Data Sources

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Flood risk is not only one of the most destructive perils facing property owners; it is among the most complicated forms of coverage for property/casualty insurers to underwrite. For decades, the private market wouldn’t cover flood risk, which is why the National Flood Insurance Program had to be established.

But improved data collection and the availability of practically unlimited computing power have changed the equation for insurers, according to Anil Vasagiri, senior vice president for property solutions at Swiss Re. In a recent Executive Exchange with Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan, Vasagiri discussed the developments that have helped turn flood from a nearly untouchable peril to a burgeoning area of opportunity for insurers.

Over 90 percent of natural catastrophes involve flood in some way or another.  Vasagiri said the ability to use multiple data sources in understanding flood conditions of specific properties helps insurers more accurately underwrite flood and help policyholders proactively address their own exposure to the peril. 

“Increased information leads to increased capacity,” Vasagiri said – a fact that bodes well for improving insurance availability and affordability and evidenced by the increased number of private insurers writing flood coverage since 2016.

The timing of the private market’s increasing appetite for flood risk is fortuitous, as it coincides with Risk Rating 2.0, NFIP’s new pricing methodology that aims to make the government agency’s flood insurance premium rates more actuarially sound and equitable by better aligning them with individual properties’ flood risk. As NFIP rates become more aligned with principles of risk-based pricing, some policyholders’ prices are expected to fall, while many are going to rise.

In the Executive Exchange, Vasagiri discussed the Swiss Re’s acquisition of Fathom – a U.K.-based company specializing in water-related risks – as part of the company’s ongoing commitment to helping close the flood protection gap.

Learn More:

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Flood

Triple-I “Trends and Insights” Issues Brief: Risk-Based Pricing of Insurance

Lee County, Fla., Towns Could Lose NFIP Discounts

Miami-Dade, Fla., Sees Flood Insurance Rate Cuts, Thanks to Resilience Investment

Milwaukee District Eyes Expanding Nature-Based Flood Mitigation Plan

Attacking the Risk Crisis: Roadmap to Investment in Flood Resilience

Industry Financials, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

Triple-I/Milliman: Personal Lines Drag
on Underwriting Profitability Continues

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

The property and casualty insurance industry posted its second consecutive year of underwriting losses, driven primarily by personal lines, according to the latest industry underwriting projections by actuaries at Triple-I and Milliman.

The net combined ratio for 2023 was 101.6, according to Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View, a Triple-I members-only webinar. Combined ratio is a standard measure of underwriting profitability, in which a result below 100 represents a profit and one above 100 represents a loss. 

The newest results are an improvement from 2022. Additionally, premium growth is expected to further improve underwriting results in 2024, with the 2024 industry net combined ratio forecast at 100.2.

Michel Léonard, PhD, CBE, Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, discussed how P&C replacement costs are increasing more slowly than the consumer price index (CPI).

“P&C replacement costs benefited from greater deceleration of key CPI components, such as construction material and used auto costs,” he said. “We expect this trend to continue until early 2026.”

Léonard noted that personal and commercial auto replacement costs decreased in the first four months of 2024, continuing their 2023 trend, largely due to double-digit declines in used auto prices.

“Even homeowners’ replacement cost changes – the segment subject to some of the highest replacement cost increases over the past few years – is now lower than overall CPI,” Léonard said.

Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, discussed the overall P&C industry underwriting projections and premium growth.

“The overall picture from prior quarters remains the same with commercial lines performing better than personal, but to a lesser extent,” Porfilio said.

The 2023 commercial lines net combined ratio was 96.2, 1.4 points worse than the 2022 result. While still unprofitable, personal lines improved 3.2 points relative to 2022. For 2023, the personal lines expense ratio improved by almost 2 points over 2022, most dramatically in personal auto. The net written premium growth rate for personal lines surpassed commercial lines by over 7 points in 2023.

“Continued personal lines premium growth should lead to further convergence in underwriting performance in 2024,” Porfilio said.

Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman – a global consulting and actuarial firm – said that for commercial auto, the 2023 net combined ratio of 109.2 is 3.8 points higher than 2022, and 10.3 points higher than 2021​. 

“The improved underwriting results following the COVID-19 pandemic appear to have been short-lived, as the commercial auto underwriting results have once again deteriorated and adverse prior year development has returned to pre-COVID levels,” Kurtz said.

Looking at the workers compensation line, Kurtz noted that the 2023 net combined ratio of 87.3 is nearly identical to 2022 and the second lowest in over 15 years​. 

“2023 net written premium growth rate of 1 percent is expected to increase to 2 percent in 2024 and remain at that level of growth through 2026,” Kurtz said. “Favorable underwriting results are expected for our forecast horizon​, which in turn will dampen premium growth going forward.”

Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), said the workers comp system is in a period of extraordinary performance. 

“WC leads the P&C industry with the lowest combined ratio compared to all other lines of business,” Glenn said. 

Further highlighting the strong results, she said, 2023 is the tenth straight year of underwriting gains and seventh consecutive year with combined ratios under 90.

Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

IRC: Homeowners Insurance Affordability Worsens Nationally, Varies Widely by State

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Average U.S. homeowners insurance premiums have increased at a rate that has outpaced household income from 2001 to 2021, according to a new report by the Insurance Research Council (IRC). In 2021 – the latest year for which data is available – homeowners spent an average of 1.99 percent of their income on homeowners insurance, up from 1.54 percent in 2001.

Affordability varies widely from state to state, and affordability rankings have fluctuated over time. In 2021, Utah was the most affordable state and Florida was the least affordable. Kansas, New York, and Washington, D.C., have demonstrated improvements from 2015 to 2021, and California, Montana, and Wyoming saw the greatest deterioration during the same period. Florida and Louisiana have consistently been the least-affordable states in the nation.

The analysis by IRC – like Triple-I, an affiliate of The Institutes – looks at homeowners insurance affordability at national and state levels and examines underlying cost drivers by state. It does not address affordability for specific demographic or geographic risk profiles. The report found that frequency and severity of natural disasters, economic conditions, rising construction costs, and litigation all significantly contributed to rising homeowners insurance costs.

“An understanding of what drives the cost of insurance is essential for consumers navigating the current insurance market,” said Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, IRC president and chief insurance officer for Triple-I. “Efforts to promote homeowner awareness and adoption of protective measures, strengthen state and local building codes, and encourage community resilience programs can all improve insurance affordability.”

Learn More:

Louisiana Still Least Affordable State for Personal Auto, Homeowners Insurance

Homeowners Claims Costs Rose Faster Than Inflation for 2 Decades

As Building Costs Grow, Consider Your Homeowners Coverage

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Resilience, Homeowners Insurance, Legal Environment

Legal Reforms Boost Florida Insurance Market; Premium Relief Will Require More Time

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Legislative reforms put in place in 2022 and early 2023 to address legal system abuse and assignment-of-benefits claim fraud in Florida are beginning to help the state’s property/casualty insurance market recover from its crisis of recent years, according to a new Triple-I Issues Brief.

Claims-related litigation is down, the “depopulation” of the state’s insurer of last resort continues apace, and underwriting profitability – while still in negative territory – has improved significantly. Insurers also benefited from a relatively mild 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and a meaningful increase in investment income, posting a net profit for the first time in seven years.

But it’s important to remember that the crisis wasn’t created overnight and that it will take time for the reforms and other developments to be reflected in policyholder premiums. Homeowners should not expect their rates to decline in 2024, despite the improved industry performance, although some regional insurers have filed for small decreases.

“Rates may moderate some compared to prior years,” said Mark Friedlander, Triple-I director of corporate communications, “but rising replacement costs – combined with expected higher reinsurance costs for the June 1 renewals – are going to continue to drive average premiums upward in 2024.”

One factor keeping upward pressure on rates is fraud and legal system abuse. With only 15 percent of U.S. homeowners insurance claims, the state accounts for nearly 71 percent of the nation’s homeowners claim-related litigation, according to Florida’s Office of Insurance Regulation.

There are early signs that recent legislative reforms are beginning to bear fruit. In 2023, Florida’s defense and cost-containment expense (DCCE) ratio – a key measure of the impact of litigation – fell to 3.1, from 8.4 in 2022, according to S&P Global.

But the catastrophe-prone state faces a number of natural challenges, from a projected “extremely active” 2024 hurricane season to wildfires, flooding, and severe convective storms.

“Hurricanes get the most media attention,” Friedlander said, “but severe convective storms inflict comparable losses. And it only takes one bad hurricane season to wipe out the benefits of one or more mild years.”

Learn More:

2024 Wildfires Expected to Be Up From Last Year, But Still Below Average

CSU Researchers Project “Extremely Active” 2024 Hurricane Season

Lee County, Fla., Towns Could Lose NFIP Flood Insurance Discounts

FEMA Reauthorization Session Highlights Importance of Risk Transfer and Reduction

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Hurricanes

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Flood

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Convective Storms

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: WildfireTriple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Legal System Abuse

Catastrophes, Disaster Resilience, Lightning

2024 Wildfires Expected to Be Up From Last Year, But Still Below Average

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The 2024 U.S. wildfire season is expected to be more damaging than 2023 but below the historical average in terms of the number of fires and acres burned, according to AccuWeather.

AccuWeather’s wildfire team predicts fires across the country will burn between 4 and 6 million acres of land in 2024, below the historical average of around 7 million acres. Last year, U.S. wildfires in the United States burned 2,693,910 acres – the fewest acres burned since 1998, when around 1.3 million acres were scorched, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

“Stormy weather lingering over the Northwest into the latter part of spring will put a lid on both wildfires and the measures humans take to suppress the fire danger,” AccuWeather reported. “Prescribed burns may be put on hold in the Northwest during May and early June due to above-average precipitation.” 

California has been home to some of the worst fires in the United States over the past decade, but – thanks to a wet and stormy winter – AccuWeather says wildfires will likely be limited until later in the summer. 

At the same time, AccuWeather meteorologists said the Texas Panhandle and other nearby areas of the southern Plains face a high to extreme risk of significant fires in 2024.

“The largest fire so far this year was in Texas, where a rapidly spreading grassfire fueled by powerful winds scorched more than 1 million acres, left at least two people dead, and killed at least 7,000 head of cattle,” AccuWeather said.

The annual monsoon is a key factor affecting wildfires across the southwestern United States.

“Monsoon-induced thunderstorms can be a double-edged sword,” AccuWeather says. “Downpours and an uptick in humidity can help crews battle and contain wildfires, while lightning strikes can trigger new infernos.”

AccuWeather says the start of the monsoon season in 2024 is likely to be slow at first before picking up in July and August.

Learn More:

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Wildfire

Triple-I “Trends and Insights” Issues Brief: California’s Risk Crisis

Despite High-Profile Events, U.S. Wildfire Severity, Frequency Have Been Declining

Auto Insurance

IRC: Insufficient Auto Insurance Coverage
Is a National Problem

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Nearly 16 percent (15.7) of U.S. drivers in 2022 had auto liability insurance limits that were too low to pay for damages or injuries they caused, according to new research from the Insurance Research Council (IRC), a division of The Institutes. 

The IRC report found that the underinsured motorist (UIM) rate increased from 12.6 percent in 2017, to a peak in 2020 at 16 percent, and remained elevated in 2021 and 2022. The 2022 rates, however, varied widely across the country, from 5.6 percent in the District of Columbia to 40.9 percent in Colorado. Other states with high UIM rates in 2022 included Nevada (39.4 percent), Georgia (37.3 percent), Louisiana (35.6 percent), and Kentucky (32.0 percent).

The IRC estimates are based on UIM and bodily injury (BI) liability exposure and claim count data collected from 10 major insurers representing approximately half of the U.S. private passenger auto insurance market. The ratio of UIM-to-BI claim frequencies yields a reasonable estimate of the proportion of injury-producing accidents in which the accident victim’s expenses exceeded the at-fault driver’s liability limits.

Auto insurers offer two types of coverage to protect policyholders: uninsured motorists (UM) coverage, which compensates accident victims for injuries or damage caused by a driver without liability insurance or from a hit-and-run driver; and underinsured motorists (UIM), which compensates the injured party for costs associated with injuries or property damage that exceed the at-fault driver’s liability coverage.

Once it is determined that the at-fault driver’s insurance will not fully cover damages, the accident victim files a claim with their own insurance company under their UM/UIM coverage.

“At the start of the pandemic, UIM frequency dropped as the shutdowns dramatically curtailed driving,” said Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, president of the IRC. “However, UIM frequency dropped less than BI. But by 2022, UIM claim frequency had returned to its 2019 level while BI claim frequency was still below pre-pandemic levels.”

Porfilio, who is also chief insurance officer for Triple-I, noted that, in today’s litigious society, having state minimum levels on uninsured motorist and underinsured motorist insurance does not provide adequate financial protection.

“Riskier behaviors like speeding and distracted driving, in combination with legal system abuse and economic inflation, all contribute to elevated UIM rates,” Porfilio added.

Learn More:

Background on Compulsory Auto /Uninsured Motorists

Uninsured Driving Dipped in 2022 After Pandemic Spurred a Multi-Year Risk

Health & Safety, Homeowners Insurance

Dog-Related Injury Claims Continue to Increase; Average Payout Declines

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By Max Dorfman, Research Writer, Triple-I

Insurers paid $1.12 billion in dog-related injury claims in 2023, according to research by Triple-I and State Farm.  

The total number of dog-bite and related claims was 19,062 in 2023 – an increase of more than 8 percent from 2022 and a rise of 110 percent over the past 10 years. 

However, the average cost per claim decreased from $64,555 in 2022 to $58,545 in 2023. California, Florida, and Texas had the most claims.  

“Education and training for owners and pets is key to keeping everyone safe and healthy,” said Janet Ruiz, director of strategic communications at Triple-I.   

“As the largest property insurer in the country, State Farm is committed to educating people about pet-owner responsibility and how to safely interact with dogs,” added Heather Paul, media relations specialist at State Farm. “It is important to recognize that any dog, including ones that are in the home, can bite or cause injury.” 

During Dog Bite Prevention Week (April 7 – 13), a coalition of veterinarians, animal behavior experts, and insurance representatives urge people to understand the risks dog bites pose to people and other pets and the steps required to prevent bites from happening.    

“Dogs are not just pets; they are beloved members of our households, providing joy, companionship, and comfort in our lives,” said Dr. Rena Carlson, president of the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA). “Together, we can nurture the bonds we share with our dogs and ensure the safety of our families and communities.” 

Tips to prevent dog bites 

All dogs – even well-trained, gentle dogs – can bite when provoked, especially when eating, sleeping, or caring for puppies. Therefore, it is essential to keep both children and dogs safe by preventing bites wherever possible. The National Dog Bite Prevention Week Coalition provides the following tips:  

  • Make sure your pet is healthy. Not all illnesses and injuries are obvious, and dogs are more likely to bite if they are sick or in pain. If you haven’t seen a veterinarian in a while, schedule an appointment for a checkup to discuss your dog’s physical and behavioral health.  
  • Prioritize proper socialization: Socialization involves gently introducing your dog to a range of settings, people, and other animals, and ensuring these experiences are positive. Whether it’s quietly observing the bustle of a park, meeting new people in a controlled manner, or getting used to the sights and sounds of your neighborhood, each positive experience builds confidence. Remember, socialization is a lifelong journey, not just a puppy phase. 
  • Take it slow. If your dog has been mainly interacting with your family since you brought them home, don’t rush out into crowded areas or dog parks. Try to expose your dogs to new situations slowly and for short periods of time, arrange for low-stress interactions, and look for behaviors that indicate your dog is comfortable and happy to remain in the situation. 
  • Understand your dog’s needs and educate yourself in positive training techniques. Recognize your dog’s body language and advocate for them in all situations. This will give your dog much needed skills and help you navigate any challenges you might encounter.  
  • Be responsible about approaching other people’s pets. Ask permission from the owner before approaching a dog and look for signs that the dog wants to interact with you. Sometimes dogs want to be left alone, and we need to recognize and respect that.  
  • Make sure that you are walking your dog on a leash and recognize changes in your dog’s body language indicating they may not be comfortable. 
  • Always monitor your dog’s activity, even when they are in the backyard at your own house, because they can be startled by something, get out of the yard and possibly injure someone or be injured themselves. 

Join the discussion on Facebook Live April 11 

To assist in these efforts, members of the National Dog Bite Prevention Week Coalition—which includes the AVMA, State Farm®, Triple I, and Victoria Stilwell Positively—will be hosting a Facebook Live event on Thursday, April 11, at 1 p.m. Eastern Time. 

The event, moderated by certified animal behavior consultant and broadcaster Steve Dale, will discuss training tips to help prevent bites, how to safely socialize your dog after a period of isolation, and how to recognize the warning signs that a dog may bite. In addition, the coalition will be releasing the latest dog-related injury claims data. The panelists will also be answering questions submitted by the public during the event.  

RELATED LINKS 

Article: Spotlight On: Dog Bite Liability 

Facts and Statistics: Pet Ownership and Insurance 

Infographic: National Dog Bite Prevention Week 

Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Earthquakes

N.J. Quake a Wake-Up Call for Seismic Mitigation, Resilience Investment

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Residents and police gather outside of homes in Newark, N.J., that were damaged by a 4.8 magnitude earthquake on April 5. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Last week’s earthquake in Lebanon, N.J.  –  the strongest to hit the state in more than 200 years and which halted activity in New York-area airports and was felt from Washington, D.C., to Maine – highlighted the importance of earthquake preparedness, mitigation, and insurance in areas traditionally not associated with damaging seismic activity.

Earthquake insurance is not covered under a standard homeowners policy. According to A.M. Best, $250 million in direct premiums written for earthquake coverage was in force in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York in 2023, accounting for less than 5 percent of U.S. earthquake coverage premiums.

Claims from last week’s event are not expected to be excessive.

“Insurers may be anticipating small claims from owners of businesses,” said Janet Ruiz, Triple-I director of strategic communication. “For example, grocery stores, where glass bottles may have fallen from shelves. But the insurance impact is likely to be limited.”

The most significant impact occurred in Newark, N.J., where three multifamily row homes were declared uninhabitable because of potential structural damage, displacing dozens of residents. However, on Saturday morning, the properties were declared structurally safe and residents were allowed to return.

Earthquakes large enough to be felt by a lot of people are relatively uncommon on the East Coast. Since 1950 there have been about 20 quakes with a magnitude above 4.5, according to the United States Geological Survey. That’s compared with over 1,000 on the West Coast.

In 2011, a 5.8 magnitude quake near Mineral, Va., shook East Coast residents over a wide swath from Georgia to Maine and even southeastern Canada. The USGS called it one of the most widely felt quakes in North American history. The quake cost $200 to $300 million in property damages, including to the Washington Monument in D.C., much of it uninsured.

Just as floods can inflict damage in areas not designated by FEMA as “flood zones,” any property where a quake can happen can undergo significant damage. Unlike in earthquake-prone states like California, however, structures typically are not designed or built with seismic events in mind. Homeowners would be well advised to discuss with their insurance professionals whether earthquake coverage is right for them.

Last week’s temblor also should drive awareness of the need for Congress to reauthorize the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) – a federal program that helps mitigate earthquake damage to buildings and communities. The NEHRP expired in September 2023. Bipartisan legislation to reauthorize the program was introduced in January 2024.

“I’ve seen what happens when communities aren’t prepared and haven’t mitigated,” said Dr. Lucy Arendt, a professor with St. Norbert College and Chair of the NEHRP Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction, in a March 7 congressional briefing hosted by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). “People are displaced from their homes. Schools are closed. Businesses shutter. There’s a lot of trauma.”

Arendt said investment in knowledge, time, and money prior to a severe disaster is significantly less than the cost to help communities recover from a major threat.

“There is a resilience gap between where we are today and where we should be as a resilient nation,” said Daniel Kaniewski, a former FEMA deputy administrator and member of the NIBS Multi-Hazard Mitigation Council. “I saw firsthand the collapse of infrastructure. These are things you might not see because it’s buried underground. But without water and power, that community cannot recover. Lifeline infrastructure needs to be restored quickly and efficiently.”

Most of the built environment is not designed to withstand earthquakes. Communities with weak building codes, older housing stock, unreinforced masonry buildings, and unmitigated hazards will fare worse than others, Kaniewski said.

“This, combined with the potential severe human toll, means that any U.S. earthquake could have catastrophic consequences that would reverberate well beyond the impact zone,” he added. “Damage to manufacturing facilities, transportation nodes, and communications networks and disrupted supply chains would be among the long list of cascading failures. Massive government spending would be necessary” to repair in the aftermath of such an event.

Learn More:

Triple-I Backgrounder on Earthquake Risk

Triple-I Facts & Statistics: Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Earthquakes: You Can’t Predict Them, But You Can Prepare

California Earthquakes: How Modern Building Codes Are Making Safer, More Resilient Communities

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance

CSU Researchers Project “Extremely Active”
2024 Hurricane Season

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Colorado State University hurricane researchers predict an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2024 forecast. The team cites record-warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes this year.

Led by senior research scientist and Triple-I non-resident scholar Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project forecasts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes during the 2024 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The 2023 season produced 20 named storms and seven hurricanes. Three reached “major hurricane” intensity. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean this season,” Klotzbach said. “Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind-shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record-warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

One hurricane and two tropical storms made continental U.S. landfalls last year. Category 3 Hurricane Idalia struck Florida’s Big Bend region near Keaton Beach on Aug. 30 with wind speeds of 115 mph. It was the third hurricane, and second major hurricane, to make a Florida landfall over the past two seasons. Idalia caused storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread flooding in Florida and throughout the Southeast. 

“The widespread damage incurred from Idalia last year highlighted the importance of being financially protected from catastrophic losses – and that includes having adequate levels of property insurance and flood coverage,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “Beyond Florida, we saw significant impacts from Idalia in southern Georgia and the Carolinas. All it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season’s start nears.”

With this forecast in mind, now is ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage. That includes exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters or business insurance policy.

Flood policies are offered through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and dozens of private insurers.

Homeowners also can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system. Installation of a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters also boost a home’s resilience to a hurricane’s damaging winds and may generate savings on a homeowner’s insurance premium.

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.

Learn More:

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Hurricanes

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Flood

FEMA Highlights Role of Modern Roofs in Preventing Hurricane Damage

Hurricanes Drive Louisiana Insured Losses, Insurer Insolvencies

INFOGRAPHICS

What are Hurricane Deductibles?

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

How to File a Flood Insurance Claim

Is Your Business Ready for Peak Hurricane Season?