All posts by Jeff Dunsavage

Coronavirus wrap-upLife/Health(4/8/2020)

April 8, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

A.M. Best Holds Stable Outlook on U.S. Health Industry Amid COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

Insurance rating agency A.M. Best said it is maintaining its stable market segment outlook on the U.S. health insurance industry, despite the impact of the COVID-19 virus outbreak. It cited:

A trend of strong earnings;
Strengthened risk-adjusted capitalization;
Lower-than-estimated utilization and medical cost trends; and
The cancellation or postponement of visits for routine care and elective procedures.

U.S. life insurers’ growing commercial mortgage portfolios may face virus pressure

U.S. life insurers continued in 2019 to increase their holdings of commercial mortgage loans, an asset class that industry participants say faces unique challenges during the coronavirus pandemic, S&P Global reports. The long-term nature of commercial mortgages makes them a good asset match for the long-duration liabilities life insurers carry. However, commercial mortgage loans could be under stress as the pandemic-sparked economic slowdown continues.

Calls for Medicaid expansion renewed as COVID-19 outbreak strains health care system

More than 50 Texas health policy and industry groups are urging Gov. Greg Abbott to expand the state’s Medicaid program to cover more than 1 million people as a way to slow the spread of the coronavirus and the illness it causes, COVID-19.

Coronavirus Reset: How to Get Health Insurance Now

Millions of people have lost jobs — and often the health coverage that came with those jobs. More still have had their work hours reduced or have received drastic pay cuts, so monthly premiums that may have been manageable before are now out of reach.

Estimated Cost of Treating the Uninsured Hospitalized with COVID-19

A great deal of uncertainty surrounds how the COVID-19 epidemic will evolve, including how many people will become infected and how many will become severely ill and require hospitalization. The Kaiser Family Foundation provides a range of cost estimates for the Trump administration’s proposal to reimburse hospitals for COVID-19 treatments for uninsured patients, based on results from recent studies and models.

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Flood Insurance, Workers Compensation

Coronavirus Wrap-up: Property/Casualty (4/7/2020)

April 7, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

Below are abstracts and links to recent articles related to coronavirus from a property and casualty insurance perspective.

Auto:
Less driving, fewer accidents: Car insurers give millions in coronavirus refunds

One of the largest car-insurance companies in the country and a smaller Midwestern auto insurer are refunding hundreds of millions of dollars to their policyholders, citing a dramatic drop in accident claims from Americans hunkered down in their homes, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Allstate providing more than $600M to auto insurance customers amid pandemic

Allstate announced that it’s providing a Shelter-in-Place Payback to help its personal auto insurance customers during the pandemic.

Business Interruption:

This insurance would have helped in coronavirus crisis; nobody bought it

PathogenRX, a parametric insurance policy developed by broker Marsh, Munich Re, and technology firm Metabiota, is designed to provide business interruption insurance in the event of a pandemic, Insurance Journal reports.

Wimbledon nets £100m coronavirus cancellation payout

When the coronavirus outbreak forced the cancellation of Wimbledon it looked like game, set, and match against the All England Club. It turns out, The Times reports, that the club has insurance that covers infectious diseases and is putting together a claim potentially in excess of £100 million.

Insurers warn on forced payouts for uncovered coronavirus losses

World insurers told governments on Monday that making them pay out on losses suffered due to the coronavirus that were not covered by policies risked destabilizing the insurance industry, Reuters reports.

Considering a business interruption insurance claim due to COVID-19? Check your policy first

Insurance brokers say viruses and pandemics are specific exclusions in many such policies, which are often included with standard property and casualty coverage. But whether COVID-19 is the basis for a business interruption claim remains an open question as government leaders and the plaintiffs’ bar wrestle over the issue.

How social inflation may affect coronavirus business interruption losse s

COVID-19 could produce a big increase in social inflation, according to A.M. Best. The reason: expectations that businesses will sue their insurers in an attempt to access their business interruption coverage for losses relating to the coronavirus pandemic.

After SARS, insurers changed policies covering businesses

SARS infected 8,000 people and led to millions of dollars in business-interruption insurance claims – including a $16 million payout to a single hotel chain. As a result, The Washington Post reports, many insurers added exclusions to standard commercial policies for losses caused by viruses or bacteria.

Flood:

FEMA extends flood renewal period

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced that it will extend the grace period to renew flood insurance policies to help policyholders affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. FEMA said it would push back the grace period from 30 days to 120 days.

Property:

Florida’s property insurer of last resort, announced it will suspend cancellations and non-renewals for the next 45 days.

Wildfire:

Firefighters say coronavirus will obstruct emergency service, evacuations as wildfire season closes in

First responders are preparing for raging wildfires that they expect will consume thousands of acres and drive some residents from their homes in upcoming months. But this year, CNBC reports, preparations have stalled. The coronavirus pandemic has hit the country’s already strained emergency services, raising concerns over inadequate disaster relief during peak fire season.

Workers Compensation:

Catch coronavirus on the job? In Florida, workers comp may not cover you

Florida’s Chief Financial Officer has ordered the Division of Risk Management to fulfill workers’ compensation claims for frontline employees who work for the state, the Tampa Bay Times reports. But the order doesn’t include similar workers in the private sector.

Auto Insurance

Auto Insurance Premiums Face Downward Pressure Due to COVID-19

April 3, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

Stay-at-home orders and other travel restrictions due to COVID-19 have limited the number of miles being driven and have consequently put pressure on auto insurers to rebate premiums or otherwise provide offsets, S&P Global Market Intelligence reports.

While U.S. private auto direct premiums written have not declined by more than 0.3 percent on a year-over-year basis in at least the past two decades, the pandemic risks maintaining this record. Certain state regulators and auto insurers are now taking steps to give financially burdened consumers additional time to make payments.

However, the article says, those steps may not be enough as public pressure increases. The Consumer Federation of America has proposed that auto insurers provide monthly offset payments to consumers to avoid what it alleged to represent the “windfall” profits the industry would otherwise produce.

Workers Compensation

Workers Comp Premiums Could SoarWith COVID-19 Claims

April 3, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

Health-care workers and emergency responders will benefit from rules eased in some states around workers’ compensation that will allow them to collect benefits if they can prove they caught Covid-19 on the job, Bloomberg reports.

But employers need to be aware of the changing rules and be prepared for the likely end result—skyrocketing premiums.

State workers’ compensation boards around the country are amending rules for benefits payouts to include health-care workers exposed to the virus and then quarantined. Attorneys are keeping a close eye on the questions, such as who should be eligible to receive benefits, how does a worker prove they caught Covid-19 on the job, and how will an influx of successful claims affect businesses’ premiums to insurance carriers.

Some say essential workers like grocery store employees and delivery workers also should qualify.

Health & Safety

Health Insurers Waive COVID-19 Cost Sharing

April 2, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

UnitedHealthcare (UHC) this week became the latest major insurer to waive members’ cost sharing for COVID-19 treatments. The health insurer said it would waive the associated costs for members in its fully insured commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid plans.

UHC added that it’s working with interested self-funded employer plans to offer the same waivers.

Anthem announced similar steps, saying it would cover the cost-sharing for COVID-19 treatment through May 31 for its Medicare, Medicaid, individual market and fully insured employer plans. The insurer also said it was “strongly encouraging” its self-funded employers to adopt the waivers.

Anthem has also taken other steps similar to its peers in the industry, such as waiving the cost-sharing for testing and tele-health, and easing prescription limits.

Aetna, Cigna and Humana all previously announced they would waive members’ cost-sharing for COVID-19 treatment. These insurers also waived copayments and other cost-sharing for testing and telehealth visits.

Regional health plans are taking similar steps. Florida Blue announced Tuesday it would waive cost-sharing for treatment, as did Harvard Pilgrim Health Plan.

Emerging Risks

P/C Insurance Group Puts Price Tag on Coronavirus Business Interruption

April 2, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

An Insurance Journal article estimates that business interruption losses from the coronavirus just for small businesses in the U.S. could be as much as $383 billion per month, or 50 percent of the total available for the industry to pay all claims.

According to American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA), that is 10 times the most claims ever handled by the industry in one year. The industry processed more than three million from the 2005 hurricane season that included Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma and several other storms, the trade group said.

APCIA president and CEO David Sampson said the coronavirus loss estimate assumes as many as 30 million claims would be filed by small businesses that suffered losses from the pandemic.

While the industry has little business interruption coverage to offer for the pandemic, Sampson said the APCIA is willing to discuss “forward-looking answers that speed economic recovery from future pandemics” with lawmakers.

Insurers back COVID-19 fund

The Insurance Journal further reports that a coalition of 36 business groups, including the insurance sector, has sent the Trump administration and Congressional leaders a letter expressing support for a proposed COVID-19 Business and Employee Continuity and Recovery Fund, a new federal relief fund intended to help businesses and workers suffering losses from coronavirus pandemic shutdowns. The fund aims to help businesses retain and rehire workers, maintain employee benefits, and pay such operating expenses as rent. It also may provide money for payroll, lost income of sick employees, and lost business revenues.

Insurers and other businesses would help create a process for quickly reviewing and processing applications filed by companies seeking help. The relief fund would be managed by a special administrator within the Treasury.

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Emerging Risks, Insurance Industry

Battle Plays OutOver Coronavirusand Business Insurance

March 31, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

The Financial Times reports that U.S. lawmakers and lawyers are considering efforts to force insurance companies to pay claims related to the coronavirus pandemic. Congress also is debating the need for legislation to require insurers to cover costs from business interruption caused by the pandemic. U.S. insurers contend that their business interruption policies exclude coverage for pandemics and that making such coverage retroactive would cause the industry to collapse. Joseph Wayland, general counsel for the U.S. insurer Chubb, said the losses would overwhelm insurers’ ability to pay and that forcing these companies to take responsibility for risks they never underwrote nor charged for represented an existential threat. Bruce Carnegie-Brown, chair of Lloyd’s of London, agreed that such a revision to insurance contracts would jeopardize the industry.

A Wall Street Journal editorial argues that forcing costs of the economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic upon insurers would cause long-term economic damage unless a federal backstop is put in place. The editorial says if business interruption insurance “can be stretched and exclusions nullified during a crisis” insurers will conclude that such coverage is not worth the risk and will drop the product.

Triple-I: Insurers are engaged in COVID-19 crisis

A Triple-I Fact Sheet, Insurers Are Engaged In the COVID-19 Crisis, outlines how the industry’s financial stability allows insurers to keep the promises made to policyholders in the event of tornadoes, hurricanes, or wildfires. It also notes how insurers are contributing to COVID-19 related charities, such as food banks and medical supplies.

“Pandemics are an extraordinary catastrophe that can impact nearly every economy in the world, so it is hard to predict and manage the risk,” said Sean Kevelighan, Triple-I CEO. “Pandemic-caused losses are excluded from standard business interruption policies because they impact all businesses, all at the same time.”

APCIA on how insurers are helping customers

David A. Sampson, president and CEO of the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA), described in a statement how property/casualty insurers are working “to proactively help consumers in this time of crisis.”

Examples include temporary arrangements for:

Flexible payment solutions for families, individuals, and businesses;
Suspending premium billing for small-business insureds, such as restaurants and bars;
Waiving premium late fees;
Pausing cancellation of coverage for personal and commercial lines due to non-payment and policy expiration;
Wage replacement benefits for first responders and medical personnel who are quarantined;
Suspending personal auto exclusions for restaurant employees who are transitioning to meal delivery services using their personal auto policy as coverage;
Adding more online account and claims services for policyholders;
Shifting more resources to anti-fraud and cyber security units, in recognition that bad actors prey on victims during times of crisis; and
Suspending in-person loss control visits and inspections.

On the subject of exclusions for contagious diseases in business interruption policies, the statement said:

“If policymakers force insurers to pay for losses that are not covered under existing insurance policies, the stability of the sector could be impacted, and that could affect the ability of consumers to address everyday risks that are covered by the property casualty industry.”

It went on to say:

“APCIA’s preliminary estimate is that business continuity losses just for small businesses with 100 or fewer employees could fall between $220-383 billion per month. The total surplus for all of the U.S. home, auto, and business insurers combined to pay all future losses is roughly only $800 billion, with the combined capital of the top business insurance underwriters representing only a fraction of that amount.”

Related articles:

New York introduces bill on pandemic-related business interruption claims

Policyholders finding out that business interruption insurance doesn’t cover coronavirus

P/C Insurers Put a Price Tag on Uncovered Coronavirus Business Interruption Losses

More coronavirus insurance cover than people think, says Lloyd’s CEO

Standard insurance for Florida businesses likely won’t cover COVID-19 losses

French Laundry restaurateur Thomas Keller sues insurer for coronavirus losses

Momentum for pandemic backstop?

Business Insurance reports that, according to sources inside the federal government, progress is being made on legislation that would provide a federal backstop for pandemic risk insurance and that a related bill could be introduced within the next 30 days. According to the sources, the bill would set up a pandemic risk insurance program that would be similar to the federal terrorism insurance program. They also report that Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), chair of the House Financial Services Committee, is circulating a draft bill including the proposal.

Related articles:

Pandemic Risk Insurance Act – A TRIA-Inspired Model to Backstop the Business Interruption Insurance Market in Wake of COVID-19

As Business Losses Mount, Pandemic Backstop Discussions Grow

Emerging Risks, Insurance Industry

Keeping on Top of Coronavirus Information Overload

March 29, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

As quickly as the coronavirus is spreading, so is the amount of published information available to help insurers and their customers navigate this confusing environment. But separating information from misinformation and the truly useful from the merely “nice to know” can be a challenge.

As a service to our readers, Triple-I Blog is aggregating and sharing some of these resources. We’re gathering links and descriptions into blog posts like this one and have established a page on our website – COVID-19: Issues and Impacts – that categorizes the posts and makes them easier to find.

Brian Fannin, a research actuary at the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), published a paper called COVID-19: A Property/Casualty Perspective to “start the conversation about what happens next.”

The paper addresses, among others, the following questions:

To what extent, if any, was P/C risk underpriced?
Given the dramatic cessation of economic activity, what lines may have been overpriced? Was such a scenario foreseeable?
How will ratemaking models respond to the changes in coverage wording that will undoubtedly appear in the future?
How can actuaries assist in the development of viable coverages to meet new demand in the market?
Do actuaries have any advice about communication of risk and how best to mitigate it?

The National Council on Compensation Insurers (NCCI) has published an article COVID-19 and Workers Compensation: What You Need to Know to share its answers to questions NCCI has received regarding COVID-19 and the impact it may have on the workers comp industry.

As part of its effort to provide information on workers comp legislative activity, NCCI also monitors workers compensation-related bills in all jurisdictions and the federal government. You can follow such activity here.

On the non-P/C side, The New York Times published Coronavirus May Add Billions to the Nation’s Health Care Bill, which warns that health insurance premiums could rise as much as 40 percent next year as employers and insurers confront the additional costs associated with the pandemic.

The Times cites an analysis by Covered California that finds:

One-year projected costs in the national commercial market range from $34 billion to $251 billion for testing, treatment, and care specifically related to COVID-19;

Potential COVID-19 costs for 2020 could range from about 2 percent of premium to over 21 percent if the full first-year costs of the epidemic had been priced into the premium;

Health insurers are setting rates for 2021. If they must recoup 2020 costs, price for the same level of costs next year, and protect their solvency, 2021 premium increases to individuals and employers from COVID-19 alone could range from 4 percent to more than 40 percent.

Two recently published pieces provide historical comparisons of COVID-19 with the 1918 global flu pandemic:

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has published Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu, which looks at the long-term economic impact of the 1918 “Spanish Flu.” It finds that, while the decreased economic activity caused by the pandemic outlasted it by years, some societies took steps that softened the economic impact and lessened the death toll.

National Geographic has published How Some Cities Flattened the Curve During the 1918 Flu Pandemic, which shows how social distancing saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. The piece includes some great data visualizations depicting how the flu played out from city to city.

Consulting firm PwC has published COVID-19: What Business Leaders Should Know that provides advice on six key areas businesses should be focusing on:

Crisis management and response
Workforce
Operations and supply chain
Finance and liquidity
Tax and trade
Strategy and brand

All of these areas are relevant to risk management and insurance.

Stay tuned – we’ll be continuing our reporting on and curation of COVID-19-specific information as long as the need for it continues.

Emerging Risks, Insurance Industry

Insurers Are “Financial First Responders” in COVID-19 Crisis

March 29, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

U.S. insurers are covering employees and employers facing exposure to COVID-19 while easing the financial burdens of their customers and communities during an extraordinary time in the nation’s history, according to the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I).

“These are challenging times for insurance customers, and the industry is doing all it can to be a financial first responder. Workers compensation insurers are providing coverage to health care workers and first responders in multiple states,” said Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan. “Business insurers are protecting financially the restaurants who now offer take-out and delivery services. Beyond that, insurers are extending coverage and payment relief to customers who are struggling financially.”

A Triple-I Fact Sheet, Insurers Are Engaged In the COVID-19 Crisis, outlines how the industry’s financial stability allows insurers to keep the promises made to policyholders in the event of tornadoes, hurricanes, or wildfires. The Fact Sheet also notes how insurers are contributing to COVID-19 related charities, such as food banks and medical supplies.

“Pandemics are an extraordinary catastrophe that can impact nearly every economy in the world, so it is hard to predict and manage the risk,” Kevelighan said. “Pandemic-caused losses are excluded from standard business interruption policies because they impact all businesses, all at the same time.”

Moreover, the exclusion for pandemic-caused losses has been incorporated into standard business interruption policies for years.

A standard business interruption policy typically covers a business when it incurs direct physical damage due to a covered loss, such as a windstorm or a fire. Covered business interruption policy losses—even from a hurricane or a terrorist attack—impact only a portion of the U.S. rather than the entire nation.

RELATED LINKS:

Triple-I Presentation: The Impact of COVID-19 On P/C Insurance
Triple-I Publication: A Firm Foundation: How Insurance Supports the Economy

Triple-I Blog:

COVID-19: Learning From History

COVID-19: A Teachable Moment for Thinking About Risk

The Triple-I has a full library of educational videos on its YouTube Channel. Information about Triple-I mobile apps can be found here.

Emerging Risks

Will COVID-19 Foul Up Our Weather Forecasts?

March 27, 2020 Jeff Dunsavage Leave a comment

Airlines have had to dramatically cut flight schedules due to the coronavirus pandemic, and some experts believe this has begun to hurt weather forecasting.

What?!

It turns out that forecasting models depend heavily on data collected by aircraft. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said this week that the number of aircraft reports received worldwide declined 42 percent from March 1 to 23. In less than a month, the number of aircraft reports over Europe received and used by the ECMWF fell 65 percent.

Weather forecasting models depend heavily on data collected by aircraft.

A 2017 American Meteorological Society study found that using aircraft observations reduced six-hour forecast errors in wind, humidity, and temperature by 15 percent to 30 percent across the United States.

This is no small matter. The more accurately experts can predict impending weather, the better prepared individuals, communities, and businesses can be. Less accurate forecasts can lead to a lack of preparation and bad weather-related decisions. From an insurance perspective, this can result in larger claims and losses.

So, late last night, worried about yet another negative implication of coronavirus, I fired off an e-mail to Triple-I non-resident scholar Phil Klotzbach. Dr. Klotzbach is a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. He has published over two dozen articles in peer-reviewed journals and is quoted regularly by the Weather Channel, Forbes, The New York Times, USA Today, and The Wall Street Journal. He and his team also publish an annual forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season.

True to form – and thanks, in part, to the two-hour time difference – he responded almost immediately:

 “I don't think it's going to be a huge reduction in model skill, but the ECMWF estimates that removal of all aircraft can reduce prediction ability at upper levels in the atmosphere (~30000 feet) by around 10-15% for 12-hour predictions.  Subtracting aircraft-provided information from historical model forecasts increased errors by about 3% for surface pressure. The lack of aircraft data has a greater impact on shorter-term forecasts (e.g., <1 day) than it does on longer-term forecasts (e.g., 5-7 days), although some degradation of the forecasts continues even at longer-range timescales. 

Of course, some aircraft will still be flying, and some of the loss may be mitigated by other data sources, such as additional launches of weather balloons.”

In other words, the reduction in aircraft data is likely to degrade accuracy of same-day and longer-term forecasts a bit, and some of that degradation will likely be offset by other data resources the forecasting community brings to bear.

Amid everything we need to be concerned about while dealing with the impacts of COVID-19, the reliability of weather forecasting isn’t yet at the top of the list.

Latest research and analysis