All posts by Jeff Dunsavage

Navigating COVID-19 And Its Aftermath

As the federal and state governments discuss plans for “reopening the economy,” it’s important to recognize and plan for the fact that the impacts of the virus and our responses to it will be playing out for some time to come.

Were auto insurers too quick to give back?

Despite record-low vehicle miles traveled, Digital Insurance reports, severe and fatal crashes in U.S. cities have increased since COVID-19. There have been more speeding and more severe and deadly crashes than before the business shutdowns and sheltering in place instituted in response to the pandemic.

In New York City, traffic volume decreased between 78% and 92% compared to January, but there was a 57% increase in speeding violations in the 10 days following the governor’s stay at home orders. And there were six deadly crashes from March 2 to April 8, which is more deadly crashes than the same time period in any of the previous five years.

Numbers like these suggest the auto insurers that have returned more than $10 billion to policyholders through premium relief – on the premise that fewer cars on the road would mean fewer crashes and claims – might have acted prematurely.

A.I. to enforce social distance, limit liability

Reuters reports that stores and other workplaces eager to avoid spreading the virus that causes COVID-19 are equipping existing security cameras with artificial intelligence software that can track compliance with health guidelines including social distancingA. and mask-wearing.

The software will allow them to show not only workers and customers, but also insurers and regulators, that they are monitoring and enforcing safe practices.

“The last thing we want is for the governor to shut all our projects down because no one is behaving,” said Jen Suerth, vice president at Chicago-based Pepper Construction, which introduced software this month to detect workers grouping at a project in Illinois.

In other COVID-19 reporting:

Automobile Insurance

Detroit Car Makers Target May 18 U.S. Restart Date (The Wall Street Journal, 4/27/20)

Expect an Increase in Auto Insurance Adaptations (Property/Casualty 360, 4/27/20)

Liability and Litigation

The Legal Fight Between Insurers and Businesses Is Expanding (The Wall Street Journal, 4/29/20)

Fearing Raft of Lawsuits, Businesses Seek Shield From Pandemic Liability (The New York Times, 4/29/20)

Most Firms Neglected Pandemics in Annual Risk Assessments: Study (Insurance Journal, 4/28/20)

Marine Insurance

Insurance Considerations for Cargo Owners During COVID-19 (Property/Casualty 360, 4/28/20)

Workers Compensation

Calif.: Immigrant Workers Eligible for COVID-19-Related WC Benefits (Property/Casualty 360, 4/28/20)

States Aim to Expand Workers’ Compensation for COVID-19 (The Wall Street Journal, 4/27/20)

Employers plot strategies for bringing workers back onsite (Business Insurance, 4/24/2020)

From the Triple-I Blog:            

SOME WAYS TO THINK ABOUT VIRUS’S IMPACT ON AUTO INSURER PROFITABILITY

ARE LIFE INSURERS DENYING BENEFITS FOR DEATHS RELATED TO COVID-19?

FAQs ABOUT COVID-19’S IMPACT ON WORKERS’ COMP

Some Ways to Think About Virus’s Long-Term Impact on Insurer Profitability

How will the COVID-19 pandemic affect auto insurers in the longer term? No one knows for sure, of course, but a new McKinsey study provides a framework for considering the question.

Fewer people are driving due to business closures and work-from-home practices. This could lead to fewer accidents and claims – but evidence suggests severity of the claims generated may worsen. Speeding has increased in several states – in some cases, leading to fatal accidents.

In the longer term, McKinsey suggests, the pandemic could precipitate structural changes in the market for car insurance: “Mobility trends may pause if more people choose to own a car and drive everywhere because they think ride sharing and public transportation are too risky…. Historically low oil prices will make driving much more affordable.”

On the other hand, if car purchases decrease because of economic uncertainty and unemployment, insurance sales could decline, hurting revenues. The industry already has returned more than $10 billion to policyholders through premium relief during the crisis, which also could affect insurers’ bottom lines.

Four scenarios

The McKinsey report lays out four scenarios to help insurers think about how the economic impact may play out in the longer term.

Pause and rebound. This scenario supposes the economic slowdown will end rapidly and the rebound will occur as quickly as the contraction. Consumers’ behavioral changes are assumed to be limited. Drivers might be a bit more conservative after the shutdown, exhibiting more caution, leading to fewer accidents which would help insurer profitability.

“Pent-up demand, supply-chain innovation, and infrastructure commitments would pull the economy to near pre-COVID-19 levels within weeks,” McKinsey writes.

YOLO (You Only Live Once). This scenario is defined by a rapid economic rebound but also more aggressive driving behaviors: “Fueled by cheap gas and a disdain for shared mobility, the roads and highways would become more crowded.”

Under this scenario, McKinsey writes,  accident severity would continue to climb, putting pressure on insurers to raise rates. The sudden drop in accident frequency during the pandemic, followed by a rapid escalation, “could strain the accuracy of actuarial techniques and regulatory expectations.”

Retrenchment. Difficulty managing the virus and complications from the business shutdown lead to a lengthy economic downturn: “As in the pause and rebound scenario….new behavioral norms would result in less travel, redefine entertainment, and contribute to a more cautious outlook on life.”

Favorable trends in claims frequency would continue, and claims severity would moderate in line with the more conservative behaviors.

But, McKinsey writes, “consistent with economic conditions, a surge would occur in the nonstandard market and state risk pools. Fraud would also spike as a by-product of economic pressures.”

Insurers could face consumer and regulatory pressure to return more premiums or reduce them further and expand coverage. Profitability would suffer.

Black swan. Worst case for economic contraction and behavioral changes. New behavioral norms  generate a YOLO outlook and compromise policing capabilities. Accident frequency would rise sharply. Claims severity would continue to climb.

“In addition,” McKinsey writes, “regulatory pressure could push rates down further or force expanded coverage,” exacerbating worsening profitability.

McKinsey analyzes the potential impact on auto insurers under each of these scenarios and associates each with a projected combined ratio – the most frequently used measure of insurer profitability.

Resources:

With Less Freeway Traffic Due to Coronavirus, There’s More Speeding and That Worries CHPLos Angeles Times, March 19, 2020

Statistics Show Speeding is Out of Control During Corona CrisisStreetsblog NYC, March 24, 2020

Are Life Insurers Denying Benefits for Deaths Related to COVID-19?

Social media has been abuzz with posts suggesting life insurance claims related to COVID-19 are being summarily denied. Much of the anxiety seems to stem from a news story titled: Would my life insurance policy cover COVID-19 related death?  

An anchor for the news organization that aired the piece shared it on Twitter below the tweet: 

Will your life insurance cover you if you die from #COVID19? 

Well, it depends. 

The tweet is accurate enough. As it would be if the reference to COVID-19 was deleted. Or if the tweet referred to another form of insurance. 

Claims sometimes are denied.  

According to the American Council of Life Insurers 2019  Fact Book, life insurance death benefits paid in 2018 totaled nearly $80 billion, up from $77 billion in 2017. Steadily rising annual payouts like the ones shown in the chart below don’t suggest an industry that spends a great deal of time slithering through loopholes to avoid paying legitimate claims.  

“Life insurance claims are rarely denied,” says Triple-I chief economist Dr. Steven Weisbart. “When they are, it’s typically because the policies had lapsed due to non-payment of premium or the policyholders had provided inaccurate or misleading information at the time of application or renewal.” 

Even in the event of a material misstatement on a life insurance application – say, the applicant lied about a significant health issue – the insurer has to discover the misrepresentation within a defined “contestability period.”  

If the policyholder dies within that period, which typically lasts two years from the date of purchase, Dr. Weisbart says, the insurer can investigate whether the information the applicant provided was accurate. If the policyholder dies after the contestability period ends, the insurer is out of luck.    



Insurers don’t make money by rejecting claims. They make money by underwriting accurately, investing wisely, and making customers happy enough to recommend them to friends and family. 


Compare the chart above, showing the billions of dollars in death benefits paid, with the chart below showing that contested claims are only a tiny fraction of those paid – and bear in mind that many, if not most, of those contested claims ultimately ended up being paid.

Regulated and closely watched 

Insurance is one of the most heavily regulated and closely scrutinized industries in the world, and claims payment is at the heart of the insurance customer experience. Insurers don’t make money by rejecting claims. They make money by underwriting accurately, investing wisely, and – as with any other business – making customers happy enough to recommend them to their friends and family. 

Unfortunately, many people – including much of the media – simply don’t understand how insurance works: how premiums are set, what types of risks are excluded (or that exclusions are even “a thing”), and how reserves and policyholder surplus work.  

This is demonstrated in some of the contentious discussions around COVID-19-related business interruption claims. In the case of business interruption, most of the denied claims have been against policies that specifically exclude losses related to infectious disease. Moves are now afoot to retroactively rewrite those contracts – to the immediate detriment of the insurance industry and longer-term danger to the people and businesses that depend on insurance – as well as anyone who ever enters into any contract ever again.  

I know of no life insurance policy that specifically excludes death from infectious disease. It’s possible some “dread disease” policies that cover specific conditions, such as cancer, might not be paid if COVID-19 – rather than the disease insured against – is deemed to be the cause of death. Or that a life claim might be denied if premium payments were missed or a policyholder smoked or engaged in some other activity associated with high coronavirus mortality that they’d denied on their application less than two years earlier.  

So, yes: Some claims may be denied. But such denials are rare and – social media agitation notwithstanding – don’t imply nefarious behavior on the part of insurers.  

Financial First Responders 

As the economic impact of the pandemic makes it difficult for consumers to keep current on their bills, states have begun to mandate that life insurers keep policies in force, even if policyholders miss payments. At the same time, insurers – facing big financial hits across the many categories of risk they cover (including recent tornadoes and the upcoming hurricane and wildfire seasons) – are doing a lot to support their customers and the communities in which they do business during this crisis. 

Insurers are financial first responders when it comes to just about any loss-creating event the average person might imagine. Media organizations would do their consumers a greater service by clarifying that role and helping them understand how best to shop for the insurance they need than by dropping scary, misleading tweets on an already anxiety-filled public.

CORONAVIRUS WRAP-UP: PROPERTY AND CASUALTY (4/27/2020)

Accounting Rules
NAIC Working Group Approves Flexible COVID-19 Accounting Rules
Automobile Insurance
How the Coronavirus Could Change U.S. Personal Auto Insurance
Business Interruption
Travelers, Insured Law Firm Spar Over Civil Authority Business Income Loss Claim
States Seek to Force Insurance Companies to Pay Those With Business Interruption Policies
Covid-19 Business Interruption Existential Threat, Reinsurance Capital Availability Key: Willis Re
Credit Insurance
Governments should backstop trade credit
Litigation
The Race Is on to Lead Business Interruption Insurance Litigation
What Won’t Cure Corona: Lawsuits
6 Types Of Employment Lawsuits To Expect In The Wake Of COVID-19
Editorial: Stopping a Lawsuit Epidemic
Kudlow: Businesses shouldn’t be held liable for employees and customers getting coronavirus
Corporate America Seeks Legal Protection for When Coronavirus Lockedowns Lift
Profits & Losses
Coronavirus Costs Weigh on Travelers’ Profit
Coronavirus Will Be Largest Event in Insurance History, Says Chubb CEO
Coronavirus To Be Largest Industry Loss Ever: Chubb’s Greenberg & Lloyd’s Neal
Covid-19 P&C Insurance Industry Loss Estimated $40bn – $80bn: Dowling
Chubb Classifies Covid-19 as a Catastrophe Event
Covid-19 Claims Manageable, But Reinsurers Face Formidable Challenges: Willis Re
Specialty Lines
Companies Can Expect Higher D&O Rates, Lower Limits: Experts
Lack of Adequate Insurance Puts Healthcare Workers At Risk of Malpractice Lawsuits
Workers Compensation
States Easing Path to Workers Compensation Benefits for Coronavirus Workers
Changing Virus Guidance Creates Balancing Act For Essential Employers
Employers Pushing Back as States Expand Work Comp to Cover COVID-19
Workplace Safety For COVID-19 Essential Workers
From the Triple-I Blog:
TRIPLE-I CEO AMONG PANELISTS DISCUSSING BUSINESS INTERRUPTION INSURANCE LEGISLATION
INSURERS RESPOND TO COVID-19 (4/24/2020)
CORONAVIRUS WRAP-UP: LIFE AND HEALTH INSURANCE (4/22/2020)
CORONAVIRUS WRAP-UP: DATA AND VISUALIZATIONS (4/20/2020)

Triple-I CEO Among Panelists Discussing Business Interruption Insurance Legislation

Sean Kevelighan

Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan today joined legislators and legal experts to discuss proposed measures that could retroactively rewrite business interruption insurance policies.

“The insurance industry is applying forward-thinking solutions to take care of its customers, communities, and employees during the COVID-19 crisis,” Kevelighan said, citing more than $10 billion so far returned to customers through premium relief; $200 million in charitable donations; and insurers pledging not to lay off employees during the crisis and implementing innovative solutions to conduct daily operations while respecting social distancing. “We’re deeply engaged in mitigating the economic impact of this pandemic.”

But the industry can only do these things – while keeping its promises to policyholders and preparing for impending catastrophes – if policyholder surplus isn’t eliminated, as it could be if some of the proposed legislative “solutions” were enacted.

Legislation has been discussed or introduced in Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and South Carolina that would retroactively enact business interruption coverage into existing policies despite an absence of the physical damage required in property policies and/or express exclusions for communicable diseases in those policies.

Kevelighan explained how policyholder surplus provides a cushion that enables insurers to meet their obligations, even when large, unexpected catastrophes occur. He showed how retroactively rewriting insurance contracts could make it impossible for insurers to play their critical role as “financial first responders.”

The scenarios he discussed could cost the industry $150 billion and $380 billion per month – “quickly eliminating the surplus it has taken the industry centuries to accumulate.”

And they would do this in the midst of a tornado season that is shaping up to be the deadliest in eight years and as a “more active than normal” hurricane season approaches.

Kevelighan made his remarks during a webinar sponsored by the National Council of Insurance Legislators (NCOIL) and the Rutgers Center for Risk and Responsibility at Rutgers Law School. Other panelists included NCOIL President and Indiana Rep. Matt Lehman; New Jersey Assemblyman Lou Greenwald; and Jay Feinman and Adam Scales, Professors of Law at Rutgers Law School and Co-Directors of the Rutgers Center for Risk and Responsibility.

The panelists all expressed support for the creation of a COVID-19 Business Interruption and Cancellation Claims Fund, similar to the 9/11 Victims Compensation Fund enacted by Congress in 2001, for businesses suffering from costs related to the interruption of their businesses, as well as the many associations that have had to cancel events. Funded by the federal government and operated by a special federal administrator, it would facilitate distribution of federal funds and liquidity to impacted businesses during this time of incalculable business interruption.

Click here to view the presentation.

CORONAVIRUS WRAP-UP: PROPERTY AND CASUALTY (4/22/2020)

Automobile Insurance
Erie Insurance Offering $200M dividend to Auto Insurance Customers Amid Pandemic
If Miles Driven Are Down, Why Are U.S. Auto Crashes Up?
Business Interruption
Federal Lawsuits Target Insurers Over COVID-19 Business Interruption Claims
Covid-Fueled Supply Chain Disruption a Crunch Point for Insurance Claims
Businesses Contemplating Reopening Fear Lawsuits From Sick Patrons
Cannabis
20 Ways to Address Marijuana Reform Amid COVID-19
Directors & Officers
Top Exec With Coronavirus a Reportable Event? It All Depends
Financial and Business Impact
A.M. Best Forecasts Hit to Insurer Capital from Equity Exposures
Fraud
Pandemic Has Scam Artists Out in Full Force
Litigation
‘Act of God’ Disputes Are on Upswing
Travelers Hits Back With COVID-19 Claims Denial Suit
Fed-up Nurses File Lawsuits, Plan Protest at White House Over Lack of Coronavirus Protections
Travel Insurance
Impact of Covid-19 on Corporate Travel, Recovery & Way Forward
Cruise Ship Virus Losses May Hit Marine Liability Insurers
Workers Compensation
CA Virus Comp Costs Projected to Reach as High as $33.6B
Employers May Exclude Payroll to Employees Not Working for Workers’ Comp: NCCI
COVID-19 Presumptions May Lead to Billions in Workers’ Comp Losses

CORONAVIRUS WRAP-UP: PROPERTY AND CASUALTY (4/21/2020)

Automobile Insurance
Acting on ‘Thin’ Data, Auto Insurers Retain Flexibility With Premium Credits
Speeders Take Over Empty Roads — With Fatal Consequences
Business Interruption
Triple-I Economists: Enforced COVID-19 Business Interruption Payouts Would Damage Industry
Fight Over Pandemic Insurance Intensifies
Restaurants vs. Insurers Shapes Up as Main Event In D.C. Lobbying Fight
Cyber Risk
Hacking Against Corporations Surges as Workers Take Computers Home
Directors & Officers
D&O Insurance May Help Non-Public Companies With COVID-19 Claims
Financial Impact
Despite Recent Market Rally, Pandemic Will Continue to Hit Insurers’ Investments
COVID-19 to deter M&A activity in 2020: Conning
Kidnap & Ransom
Pandemic Exposes Organizations to Kidnap for Ransom Risk
Litigation
U.S. Businesses Bring Wave of Class Action Lawsuits Against Insurance Companies for Denial of Business Interruption Claims in Wake of COVID-19Pandemic
Hiscox Faces Legal Action From Chef Raymond Blanc: Reports
Ending Virus Shutdowns Too Soon Poses Legal Risk for Businesses
Reinsurance and Insurance-Linked Securities
Lack of Exclusions, Poor Wordings the COVID-19 BI Threats to Reinsurers & ILS
Workers Compensation
Utah Passes Bill to Provide First Responders With Comp for COVID
Comp Premiums Likely to Dip as Employment Declines: NCCI

From The Triple-I Blog:
MIXED REACTIONS TO WORKERS COMP COVID-19 EXPANSIONS

CORONAVIRUS WRAP-UP: Data and Visualizations (4/20/2020)

The coronavirus crisis continues to generate data that can be valuable for understanding and decision making. Below are just a few resources that may be of interest to insurers and the people and businesses they serve.

COVID-19 Mortality Projections for U.S. States
Graphs from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium show reported and projected deaths per day across the United States and for individual states.
The Verisk COVID-19 Projection Tool
The Verisk COVID-19 Projection Tool has been made available to enhanceunderstanding of the potential number of worldwide COVID-19 infections and deaths. It provides an interactive dashboard that leverages the AIR Pandemic Model.
How State Insurance Departments Are Responding to COVID-19
This interactive map from PC360 highlights bulletins and procedures released by state insurance departments as of April 15, 2020.
Tracking U.S. Small and Medium Business Sentiment During COVID-19
Small and medium-size businesses account for roughly 44% of the U.S. economy and provide employment to about 59 million people. McKinsey is tracking their sentiment to gauge how their views on economic activity, employment, and financial behavior—as well as their expectations about financial institutions and public authorities—change as a result of ongoing public and private interventions.

Mixed ReactionsTo Workers CompCOVID-19 Expansions

State workers’ compensation boards around the country are amending rules for benefits payouts related to coronavirus, and several states have expanded or are considering widening access to workers comp coverage for COVID-19 beyond first responders and health care workers.

Kentucky and Illinois this week implemented emergency orders to provide access to public-facing essential workers, such as grocery, pharmacy, Postal Service and day care workers. And Minnesota’s legislature unanimously approved a bill that guarantees people in high-risk jobs who contract COVID-19 workers comp coverage without having to prove the infection was a direct result of their job. Most licensed peace officers, firefighters, paramedics, nurses, health care workers, correction officers, workers at secure state facilities, workers at long-term care facilities, and child-care providers are among the classes included in the Minnesota measure.

Lawmakers in Louisiana and New Jersey also have proposed legislation to expand COVID-19 coverage beyond first responders and health care workers, who traditionally are covered if they are exposed to a communicable disease in the course of their work.

While employee groups and unions applaud these moves, the changes could hurt the workers comp industry, some experts warn.

Robert Hartwig, clinical associate professor and director of the Risk and Uncertainty Management Center at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, said the changes present “a potentially enormous and unfair burden on workers compensation insurers that’s completely unprecedented in history.”

Hartwig pointed to the difficulty proving that the transfer of a communicable disease occurred on the job and added, “This is potentially extraordinarily costly to workers comp insurers, but also to many large employers who have either very high-deductible programs or are largely self-insured.”

He said these changes also could be “potentially catastrophic” to workers compensation state funds.

CORONAVIRUS WRAP-UP: PROPERTY AND CASUALTY (4/17/2020)

Auto Insurance
Stay-at-home Pandemic Orders Reduce Auto Claims Almost by Half
As Coronavirus Empties Streets, Speeders Hit the Gas
Business Interruption
UK Watchdog Orders Insurers to Pay Small Business Claims Quickly
Cannabis Insurance
Pandemic Could Shrink Cannabis Insurers’ Premiums, Market
Cyber Insurance
Preventing Losses Due to Growing Cyber Crime During Coronavirus Crisis
As Attacks Rise, Paladin Offers Cybersecurity Platform Free to Insurance Agencies
Disaster Preparedness
‘Uncharted Territory’ as Wildfire Fighting Adapts to Pandemic
Insurance-Linked Securities
Artemis Live: Interview with Tom Johansmeyer, Head of PCS
Litigation
Nashville Bar Sues Insurer Over COVID-19 Loss Claim. Experts Say It Won’t Be the Last
Businesses Warn Fear of Liability Lawsuits Could Stall Rebooting of Economy
P/C Industry Impact
Suddenly There is Big Demand for Pandemic Cover, Says Underwriter
Chubb CEO: Forcing Insurers to Pay Pandemic Loss Claims is ‘Plainly Unconstitutional’
Allianz CEO: Pandemic Hit “Like a Metororite”
From Hacker Attacks to Shareholder Lawsuits, Insurance Industry Braces for COVID-19 Fallout
Public Health and Safety
What FDA Says About Food Safety Amid COVID-19
Travel Insurance
Travelers Consider Their Risk Tolerance
HOLIDAY HELL How to Get a Refund on Your Holiday if it’s Cancelled and How Long Should it Take to Get Cash Back
Workers Compensation
Workers Compensation in Wake of COVID-19

From the Triple-I Blog:
INSURERS RESPOND TO COVID-19 (4/17/2020)
TRIPLE-I BRIEFING: SURPLUS IS KEY TO INSURERS KEEPING POLICYHOLDER PROMISES
PUTTING CAR INSURANCE PRICES INTO PERSPECTIVE