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Nonprofit to Rescue NOAA Billion-Dollar Dataset

A climate nonprofit plans to revive a key federal database tracking billion-dollar weather and climate disasters that the Trump Administration stopped updating in May, Bloomberg reported.

The database captures the financial toll of increasingly intense weather events and was used by insurers and others to understand, model, and predict weather perils across the United States. Dr. Adam B. Smith, the former NOAA climatologist who spearheaded the database for more than a decade, has been hired to manage it for the nonprofit, Climate Central.

NOAA in May announced it would stop tracking the cost of the country’s most expensive disasters, those which cause at least $1 billion in damage – a move that would leave insurers, researchers, and government policymakers with less reliable information to help understand the patterns of major disasters like hurricanes, drought or wildfires, and their economic consequences.

Climate Central plans to expand beyond the database’s original scope by tracking disasters as small as $100 million and calculating losses from individual wildfires, rather than simply reporting seasonal regional totals.

A record 28 billion-dollar disasters hit the United States in 2023, including a drought that caused $14.8 billion in damages. In 2024, 27 incidents of that scale occurred. Since 1980, an average of nine such events have struck in the United States annually.

This summer – amid deadly wildfires and floods – the Trump Administration has appeared to be rolling back some of its DOGE-driven NOAA funding cuts. NOAA recently announced that it would be hiring 450 meteorologists, hydrologists, and radar technicians for the National Weather Service (NWS), after having terminated over 550 such positions in the already-understaffed agency in the spring.

In addition, the administration’s announced termination of the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program — run by the  Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) — has been held up by a court injunction while legislators debate its future.  Congress established BRIC through the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 to ensure a stable funding source to support mitigation projects annually. The program has allocated more than $5 billion for investment in mitigation projects to alleviate human suffering and avoid economic losses from floods, wildfires, and other disasters.

Regarding the rescue of the NOAA dataset, Colorado State University researcher and Triple-I non-resident scholar Dr. Phil Klotzbach said, “The billion-dollar disaster dataset is important for those of us working to better understand the impacts of tropical cyclones. It uses a consistent methodology to estimate damage caused by natural disasters from 1980 to the present and was a critical input to our papers investigating the relationship between landfalling wind, pressure and damage. I’m very happy to hear that this dataset will continue!”

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Some Weather Service Jobs Being Restored;
BRIC Still Being Litigated

Amid a summer full of deadly fires and storm-related flooding, the Trump Administration appears to be rolling back some of the spending cuts imposed upon the National Weather Service (NWS) by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – of which NWS is a part – announced at an internal all-hands meeting earlier this month that they will hire 450 meteorologists, hydrologists, and radar technicians. CNN reported the announcement, citing an unnamed NOAA official. In jointly timed press releases, Congressmen Mike Flood and Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) and Mike Flood (R-Neb.) acknowledged the planned hirings.

While the decision is welcome news, both congressmen continued to urge their colleagues to pass their bipartisan Weather Workforce Improvement Act to ensure these positions will remain permanent and not be subject to any future reductions. 

“For months, Congressman Flood and I have been fighting to get NOAA and NWS employees the support they need in the face of cuts to staff and funding,” Sorenson said. “Hundreds of unfilled positions have caused NWS offices across the country to cancel weather balloon launches, forgo overnight staffing, and force remaining meteorologists to overwork themselves.”

“For decades the National Weather Service has helped keep our communities safe with accurate and timely forecasts,” said Flood, adding that the NOAA announcement “sends a message that they’re focused on strengthening the NWS for years to come.”  

NOAA and FEMA cuts raised fears

It’s not just the NOAA and NWS cuts that have raised concerns. On April 4, 2025, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced that it would be ending its Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) program and cancel all BRIC applications from fiscal years 2020-2023. Congress established BRIC through the Disaster Recovery Reform Act of 2018 to ensure a stable funding source to support mitigation projects annually. The program has allocated more than $5 billion for investment in mitigation projects to alleviate human suffering and avoid economic losses from floods, wildfires, and other disasters.

At the time, Chad Berginnis, executive director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM), called the decision to terminate BRIC “beyond reckless.”

 “Although ASFPM has had some qualms about how FEMA’s BRIC program was implemented, it was still a cornerstone of our nation’s hazard mitigation strategy, and the agency has worked to make improvements each year,” Berginnis said. “Eliminating it entirely — mid-award cycle, no less — defies common sense.”

Resilience investment is key to long-term insurance availability and affordability.  Average insured catastrophe losses have been on the rise for decades, reflecting a combination of climate-related factors and demographic trends as more people have moved into harm’s way.

Efforts have been made to save BRIC, and a U.S. District Judge in Boston recently granted a preliminary injunction sought by 20 Democrat-led states while their lawsuit over the funding moves ahead. Judge Richard G. Stearns ruled the Trump Administration cannot reallocate $4 billion meant to help communities protect against natural disasters.

In his ruling, Stearns said he was not convinced Congress had given FEMA any discretion to redirect the funds. The states had also shown that the “balance of hardship and public interest” was in their favor.

“There is an inherent public interest in ensuring that the government follows the law, and the potential hardship accruing to the States from the funds being repurposed is great,” Stearns wrote. “The BRIC program is designed to protect against natural disasters and save lives.”

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2025 Cat Losses to Date
Are 2nd-Costliest Since Records Have Been Kept

Global insured losses from natural catastrophes reached $80 billion in the first six months of 2025 alone, making it the second-costliest first half on record since data collection began decades ago, according to reports by reinsurance giants Munich Re and Swiss Re.

Both reports called out the devastating wildfires that swept through Los Angeles County in January as the single most destructive event to date, with both firms estimating that these fires caused $40 billion in insured losses.

What makes these disasters particularly alarming is their timing and location. Both reports emphasized that the Los Angeles fires occurred during California’s normally wet winter season, when such massive blazes are typically unheard of. This seasonal shift represents a troubling new pattern, in which dangerous fire conditions persist year-round, rather than just during traditional fire season.

The reports also agree that severe thunderstorms across the American Midwest and South continued to cause billions in additional damage throughout spring, reinforcing how weather-related disasters are becoming both more frequent and more costly as communities expand into high-risk areas.

Swiss Re and Munich Re both identify the same underlying drivers making these disasters so expensive: More people are building homes and businesses in dangerous areas like wildfire-prone zones and tornado alleys, while climate change is making extreme weather events more intense and unpredictable.

The reports agree that this combination of increased development in risky locations and worsening weather conditions means that what happened in the first half of 2025 is likely just a preview of even costlier disasters to come, unless communities take serious steps to build more resilient infrastructure and avoid construction in the most hazardous areas.

Cat losses and replacement costs

Swiss Re emphasized the growing wildfire threat, pointing out that, before 2015, wildfires on average contributed around 1 percent of the total insured losses from all natural catastrophes worldwide.

“In the last 10 years, this has risen to 7 percent, the costliest periods being a two-year stretch of 2017‒18, and to a lesser extent 2020,” the report said.

Swiss Re also points to severe impact of post-pandemic construction cost inflation, noting that “construction costs rose by 35.64 percent from January 2020 to June 2025, directly impacting property claims costs.”  These higher costs to repair and replace property significantly increase the financial impact of each disaster.

“The best way to avoid losses is to implement effective preventive measures, such as more robust construction for buildings and infrastructure to better withstand natural disasters,” said Thomas Blunck, a member of Munich Re’s Board of Management. “Such precautions can help to maintain reasonable insurance premiums, even in high-risk areas. And most importantly: to reduce future exposure, new building development should not be allowed in high-risk areas.”

Swiss Re cautions that climate change is creating more volatile and unpredictable loss patterns, making catastrophe losses “more difficult to predict.” Together, these trends suggest the U.S. insurance market must prepare for sustained pressure on pricing and availability, particularly in high-risk coastal and wildland-urban interface regions.

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Auto Premium Growth Slows As Policyholders Shop Around, Study Says

Improved loss ratios, strong premium growth, and lower retention rates characterized the U.S. auto insurance industry in 2024, according to LexisNexis® Risk Solutions’ 2025 U.S Auto Insurance Trends Report.

The report shows that, “while a number of insurers returned to profitability as the market softened,” the market was characterized by “record levels of policy shopping and switching, attorney representation, claims severity, and rising driving violations.”

Rate increases over the past two years helped U.S. insurers address profitability issues, the report said. Premium rate increases are beginning to ease, rising 10 percent in 2024, compared with a 15 percent hike in 2023, as market conditions soften. Insurer profitability is improving, with direct written premiums growing 13.6 percent, to $359 billion, and incurred loss ratios stabilizing, enabling some carriers to pursue growth strategies and file for rate decreases.

LexisNexis Risk Solutions also notes that tariffs may factor into how insurers consider rate in 2025.  While the market wouldn’t expect the magnitude of activity seen between 2022 through 2024, tariffs, if they stick, could set off a ripple effect of moderate rate increases with implications across the industry.

Other trends identified in the report include:

  • Bodily injury claims severity jumped 9.2 percent, and property damage severity climbed 2.5 percent, year over year. In contrast, collision severity fell 2.5 percent for the same period.
  • All driving violations increased 17percent and driving violation rates across the United States surpassed 2019 levels.
  • Policy shopping reached an all-time high, with more than 45 percent of policies in force shopped at least once by year-end.

The report also noted that electric vehicle (EV) transitions are introducing new risks, as drivers moving from internal combustion engine vehicles to EVs experienced a 14 percet rise in claim frequency.

“Auto insurers continue to navigate a dynamic market,” said Jeff Batiste, senior vice president and general manager, U.S. auto and home insurance, LexisNexis Risk Solutions. “The combination of the market softening and a return to profitability presents a potential new chapter for the industry as insurers encounter a consumer base that is more willing than ever to shop for deals.”

Record levels of auto policy switching translated to 2024’s new policy growth rate of 17.7 percent year over year. It also added momentum to the ongoing customer retention decline across the industry.

Since 2021, retention has decreased five percentage points, to 78 percent, resulting in a 22 percent increase in policy churn, the report says.

“Historically, dropping even one percentage point is significant,” it says. “However, against a backdrop of heightened levels of shopping and switching activity, insurers may want to focus on their retention strategies, especially when long-tenured customers are hitting the market.”

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CSU Sticks to Hurricane Season Forecast, Warns About Near-Term Activity

Colorado State University researchers are standing by their prediction for a “slightly above-average” 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, while warning of heightened tropical activity over the next two weeks.

 Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at CSU and Triple-I non-resident scholar, the team maintains their forecast of 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes through November 30. The forecast calls for 115 percent of average hurricane activity compared to the 1991-2020 baseline, a decrease from 2024’s 130 percent. However, the immediate outlook is more concerning, with a 55 percent chance of above-normal activity through August 19.

Current activity includes Tropical Storm Dexter, which formed off North Carolina on August 3 and may strengthen to Category 1 status as it moves into the Central Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a new system labeled Invest 96L in the Eastern Atlantic. The term “invest” is a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify a system that could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. The designation allows the agency to run specialized computer forecast models to track the area’s potential storm development.

The heightened forecast stems from unusually warm tropical Atlantic waters.

“Weaker winds over the past few weeks have reduced evaporation and ocean mixing, leading to faster warming,” Klotzbach explained. These warmer waters provide more fuel for hurricane development and create atmospheric conditions that favor storm formation.

Major hurricane landfall probabilities remain elevated: 48 percent for the entire continental U.S. coastline, 24 percent for the East Coast, and 31 percent for the Gulf Coast — all above historical averages.

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Parents Eye IoT
to Address Perils
of Teen Driving

Parents are increasingly open to using technology to keep their teen drivers safe on the road, a recent survey from Nationwide finds.

The survey found 4 out of 5 parents would enroll their teens in telematics programs that reward safe driving. This enthusiasm for tech-based solutions comes despite mixed parental assessments of their teens’ driving abilities: While 42 percent rate their teen’s driving as “good” or “excellent”, similar percentages express concerns about distracted driving and reckless behavior.

“Parents want to feel confident that their teens are making smart choices behind the wheel,” says Casey Kempton, Nationwide president of P&C personal lines. “These tools help make that possible—not just by monitoring behavior, but by encouraging better habits through positive reinforcement.”  

Despite recognizing the value of safety technology, adoption remains limited. While 96 percent of parents said they believe dashcams provide valuable evidence after accidents, only 26 percent of teen drivers actually have them installed.

The survey reveals a broader trend in which consumers are drawn to telematics and monitoring technologies, though motivations vary. While parents prioritize safety benefits, many consumers are equally interested in the insurance premium discounts these programs can provide.

“This isn’t just about technology,” Kempton says. “It’s about creating a culture of accountability and shared responsibility on the road.”  

As comfort with AI-enabled monitoring grows, it appears that families are embracing a future in which technology supports — but does not replace — good judgment.  

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Russia Quake Highlights Unpredictability of Natural Catastrophes

Yesterday’s 8.8 magnitude earthquake near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula sent tsunami waves across the Pacific, placing Hawaii under evacuation orders, triggering advisories along the U.S. West Coast, and emphasizing a critical truth about natural catastrophes: They don’t respect borders and tend not to give warnings.

While the immediate impacts were relatively contained—with waves reaching up to 4 meters in Russia’s coastal towns and smaller surges affecting Japan, Hawaii, and Alaska—the event offers a potent and timely reminder about the importance of preparation and investment in resilience.

Coverage Confusion That Could Cost

Standard homeowners insurance policies don’t cover tsunami damage. Neither do earthquake policies, despite the seismic trigger. Tsunami damage falls under flood coverage—a separate policy that many coastal property owners don’t carry.

Flood insurance purchase rates nationally are low – even in coastal communities. This creates a potential perfect storm of financial vulnerability. Communities that experienced evacuation orders yesterday, from Oahu to the Oregon coast might well have been saddled with massive, largely uninsured losses had the tsunami played out differently.

Low Frequency, High Consequence

Tsunami risk represents the most challenging category of natural disasters: extremely rare but potentially catastrophic. Unlike hurricanes or earthquakes that occur with some regularity, major tsunamis affecting U.S. coastlines are generational events. This rarity can breed complacency.

Yesterday’s event, while not causing major damage to U.S. properties, provided invaluable data for catastrophe modelers. The wave propagation patterns, arrival times, and coastal impacts across Hawaii, Alaska, and the West Coast offer fresh insights into how a more severe event might unfold. Insurers and reinsurers are likely already incorporating this data into their risk models.

Building Resilience Through Partnership

The beauty of a “predict and prevent” model of risk management is that it can address a multiplicity of perils. While tsunamis are rare, flooding is not. Recent years have witnessed a rise in inland flooding related to tropical storms, atmospheric rivers, and severe convective storms. The communities affected by catastrophic flood events like the recent ones in Texas and New Mexico and the devastating 2024 floods related to Hurricane Helene tend to have even lower flood insurance “take-up” rates than coastal communities.

The most effective risk management will require unprecedented collaboration between public and private sectors. The NFIP, state insurance departments, and private insurers need to work together on pricing models that accurately reflect risk while remaining accessible to coastal communities. At the same time, communities and businesses must plan and invest together to prepare not just one but many potential climate-related risks.

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Litigation Reform Works: Florida Auto Insurance Premium Rates Declining

Florida’s top five auto insurance groups are cutting personal auto rates by a statewide average of 6.5 percent due to legislative reforms that addressed legal system abuse and assignment of benefits (AOB) claim fraud, the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) announced this week.

“Citizens of the Sunshine State are now clearly seeing the benefits of a more stable and affordable insurance marketplace,” Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan said.

State leaders credit the reforms for driving down both average rates and loss ratios, with Florida now reporting the lowest personal auto liability loss ratio in the United States, OIR said. Improved underwriting results and reduced litigation are helping insurers lower premiums, while increased consumer shopping is boosting competition and affordability across the state’s auto insurance market.

Resistance to reforms persists

Despite the measurable benefits to consumers, these reforms are under attack in the state legislature. HB 947 and  HB 837 would undo much of this progress.

“The continued reduction in auto insurance rates is yet another sign that Florida’s reforms are working,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. “We will protect our reforms from those who seek to undo them and continue to fight for Floridians.”

Other states, including Georgia and Louisiana, are following Florida’s lead.

Premium relief for Florida drivers comes on top of significant improvements in the state’s property insurance market, where many consumers are securing better rates for their home insurance due to legislative reform and a competitive market with more than a dozen new carriers, Triple-I Director of Corporate Communications Mark Friedlander told BestWire.

“For many years, unscrupulous glass vendors preyed upon Florida drivers at car washes, gas stations, and shopping center parking lots with promises of gift cards in exchange for signing over their glass repair,” Friedlander said. “When insurers rejected these highly inflated claims, frivolous lawsuits followed.”

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IoT Solutions Offer Homeowners, Insurers Value — But How Much?

As property/casualty insurers increase their focus on predicting and preventing costly damage that drives up claims and premiums, telematics technology has come to play an increasing role.  From video doorbells that reduce theft and vandalism to “smart plumbing” solutions that detect leaks and shut off water before in-home flooding can occur, these technologies clearly offer value to homeowners and insurers.

But how much value?

Whisker Labs – maker of the Ting home fire prevention solution – has taken on the challenge of quantifying its product’s efficacy and return on investment. In a research partnership with Octagram Analytics for independent data analysis and modeling and Triple-I for its insurance industry expertise and insight, Whisker Labs found that Ting reduced fire claims within the study sample by an estimated 63 percent, resulting in 0.39 fewer electrical fire claims per 1,000 home years of experience, in the third year after installation. This translates into a fire claims reduction benefit of $81 per customer. 

“This study provides concrete evidence of the value that telematics technology can deliver,” said Patrick Schmid, chief insurance officer at Triple-I. “While IoT solutions are gaining traction with many success stories, rigorous analysis of claims reduction has been harder to find until now.  This analysis clearly shows Ting reduces claims and provides a positive return on investment for insurers.”

The research can be read here.

How Ting works

Ting helps protect homes from electrical fires by using advanced AI to detect arcing, the precursor to most electrical fires. Once connected to a single outlet, Ting analyzes 30 million measurements per second, analyzing voltage at high frequencies to detect tiny electrical anomalies and power quality problems. These hazards can originate from wiring in the home, connected devices and appliances, or even the power coming in from the utility. On average, Ting detects and mitigates fire hazards in 1 out of every 60 homes it protects.

“Ting is about saving lives and homes – that’s always been our mission,” said Bob Marshall, CEO and cofounder of Whisker Labs. “By analyzing verified claims data over time, this analysis shows that what’s best for families also delivers a strong financial return for insurers. Prevention is better for everyone.”

Whisker Labs works with a growing community of 30 insurers who provide Ting to their customers for free.  More than one million Tings are deployed in the United States, and approximately 50,000 new Tings are installed each month.

In addition to monitoring voltage and features of voltage at high frequencies to detect arcing that is indicative of fire hazards, Ting has a temperature sensor that monitors the temperature within the home. 

“When the temperature drops below 42 degrees, an alert is issued,” Marshall said. “Thus, Ting detects and warns about conditions that can result in frozen and burst pipes and alerts the homeowner to correct the situation before damage occurs.  Over the past three years, we have issued low-temperature warnings to about 1 in 560 customers per year.”

Measuring the value

Like Ting, other peril-based IoT solutions issue alerts and warnings when a hazard is detected.  Thousands of hazards are detected and alerts sent, but how do you know that this reduces claims?  How do you estimate the return on investment for these devices?  How can you prove that the bad thing, a loss and a claim, didn’t occur? 

“We developed a methodology to do this in the real world with existing customers and experience data,” said Whisker Labs Chief Scientist Stan Heckman.

Whisker Labs and Octagram had to overcome challenges related to limited data and sampling bias. To address these, a self-controlled study was developed that assesses claims over time in homes with Ting in place.  (See paper for a fuller explanation of the methodology).

The chart below shows how the number of fire claims in Ting-equipped homes declines over time. The claims frequencies observed and associated percent reduction in claims are highly dependent on the definition of the sample of non-cat fire claims provided by carriers that participated in the analysis.  However, this does not affect the observed absolute reduction.

Using data from Triple-I and Verisk, Whisker Labs determined that Ting provides a loss-prevention benefit of $81 per home per year. (See paper for details).

“Add in benefits associated with reduction in water-related losses from frozen pipes and failing sump pumps and water heaters,” and the benefits are likely substantially higher, Marshall said. Insurers who provide Ting to their policyholders also may enjoy improvements in customer retention.

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Texas: A Microcosm
of U.S. Climate Perils

Devastating flooding in central Texas over the July 4, 2025, weekend highlighted several aspects of the state’s risk profile that also are relevant to the rest of the country, according to the latest Triple-I Issues Brief. One is the rising incidence of severe inland flooding related to tropical storms.

Tropical Storm Barry made landfall in Mexico on June 29 and weakened quickly, but its remnant moisture drifted northward into Texas, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University and a Triple-I non-resident scholar.

“A slow-moving low-pressure area developed and helped bring up the moisture-rich air rom Barry and concentrated it over the Hill Country of central Texas,” Klotzbach said. “The soil was also extremely hard from prior drought conditions, which exacerbated the flash flooding that occurred.”

Such flooding far from landfall has become more frequent and severe in recent years.  In Texas – as in much of the United States, particularly far from the coasts – few homeowners have flood insurance. Many believe flood damage is covered by their homeowners’ or renters’ insurance. Others believe the coverage is not worth buying if their mortgage lender doesn’t require it.  In Kerr County, where much of the July 4 flooding took place, flood insurance take-up rates through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) were 2.5 percent.

Convective storms, fires, and freezes

But tropical storms aren’t always the impetus for flooding. In July 2023, a series of intense thunderstorms resulted in heavy rainfall, deadly flash floods, and severe river flooding in eastern Kentucky and central Appalachia. The conditions that lead to such severe convective storms also are prevalent in Texas.

Severe convective storms are a growing source of losses for property/casualty insurers. According to Gallagher Re, severe convective storm events in 2023 and 2024 “have cost global insurers a remarkable US$143 billion, of which US$120 billion occurred in the U.S. alone.”

Given its aridity and winds, it should be no surprise that Texas is highly subject to wildfire – but the state also has been increasingly prone to severe winter storms and debilitating freezes. On Valentine’s Day 2021, snow fell across most of Texas, accumulating as temperatures stayed below freezing and precipitation continued through the night. A catastrophic failure of the state’s independent electric grid exacerbated these conditions as snow and ice shut down roads and many homes suffered pipe bursts and multiple days without power.

Texas’s 2021 experience illustrates how grid instability can act as a “risk multiplier” for natural disasters. The entire U.S. electric power grid is increasingly vulnerable as the infrastructure ages and proliferating AI data centers increase demand.  

Need for data and collaboration

The severe damage and loss of life from the July 4 flooding have naturally raised the question of whether the Trump Administration’s reductions in National Weather Service  staffing contributed to the high human cost of this event. While it is hard to say with certainty, these cuts have affected how NWS works – for example, in its use of weather balloons to monitor weather. As early as April, staffing data gathered by NWS indicated that field offices were “critically understaffed”.

In June, panelists at Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum expressed concern about the impact of the federal cuts on weather monitoring and modeling, as well as programs to help communities adequately prepare for and recover from disasters. Triple-I has published extensively on the need for insurers to shift from exclusively focusing on repairing and replacing property to predicting events and preventing damage.

Collective action at all levels – individual, commercial, and government – is needed to mitigate risks, build resilience, and reduce fraud and legal system abuse. Triple-I and its members are committed to fostering such action and regularly provide data and analysis to inform the necessary conversations.

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