Approximately 2.5 million Americans in 1.4 million homes will be at risk from severe coastal flooding by 2050, with Florida, New York, and New Jersey facing the highest exposure, according to a new report from Climate Central’s Coastal Risk Finder.
Coastal flooding in the U.S. now occurs three times more frequently than 30 years ago, and this acceleration shows no signs of slowing. By 2050, flood frequency is projected to increase tenfold compared to current levels, driven by rising sea levels that push tides and storm surges higher and further inland, according to the report.
The report defines a “severe flood” as one with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. Such events, while statistically rare, can cause catastrophic damage to communities and infrastructure. The analysis incorporates the latest elevation data, levee information, sea level rise projections, and U.S. Census statistics to create comprehensive risk assessments.
Regional differences in risk exposure are significant. While the densely populated Northeast shows higher numbers of at-risk residents, the Gulf region faces greater land area vulnerability due to higher rates of sea level rise and naturally low-lying coasts.
Vulnerable Communities and Populations
Florida leads the nation with 505,000 residents projected to face risk from a severe coastal flood by 2050, followed by New York and New Jersey. At the municipal level, New York City tops the list with an estimated 271,000 people living in “high” at-risk areas. Among the cities with the highest exposure, six are located in the Northeast.
The report also highlighted a troubling demographic pattern: older adults face disproportionate exposure to coastal flood risks. Nearly 540,000 people aged 65 or older live in areas at risk of severe coastal flooding by 2050, representing 22% of the total at-risk population despite comprising only 16% of residents in coastal states. Florida has the highest number of vulnerable seniors with more than 143,000 at risk, while Maine, Oregon, and Delaware show the highest proportions of seniors living in flood-prone areas.
Social vulnerability—the combination of socioeconomic factors that worsen disaster impacts—further complicates the risk landscape. The report utilizes the U.S. Census Bureau’s Community Resilience Estimates to identify individuals with various risk components. Of the 2.5 million Americans in flood-risk zones, approximately 1.85 million (74%) have at least one component of risk, and 617,000 (25%) have three or more risk factors.
“Older adults, especially those living in care facilities, are among the most vulnerable to death and health setbacks due to hurricanes, storm surges, and other floods,” the report noted, emphasizing that age is just one of many factors contributing to vulnerability.
Tools and Adaptation Imperatives
The Coastal Risk Finder tool, which informed this report, offers detailed flood projections and risk assessments for any coastal state, county, city, town or district in the contiguous U.S. Developed following interviews with over 100 government officials, community leaders and researchers, the tool addresses the specific information needs of coastal communities.
Users can access customized maps, graphics and data to understand flood risks under different climate scenarios. The tool includes specific resources for media professionals, government officials and community leaders to help communicate and plan for worsening coastal flood risks.
The full range of demographic data, including social vulnerability metrics, is available for states, counties and cities through the Coastal Risk Finder, enabling communities to develop more targeted and equitable resilience plans.
Obtain the full report here.