Monthly Archives: October 2024

Insurance Industry

US Consumers See Link Between Attorney Involvement in Claims and Higher Auto Insurance Costs: New IRC Report

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According to a new survey conducted by the Insurance Research Council (IRC), most consumers believe attorney advertising increases the number of claims and lawsuits and the cost of auto insurance.

The report, Public Opinions on Attorney Involvement in Claims, analyzes consumer opinions on attorney involvement in insurance claims and expands prior research. Overall, 60 percent of 2000 respondents in this latest nationwide online survey from IRC said that attorney advertising increases the number of claims, and 52 percent said that advertising increases the cost of insurance. Most respondents (89 percent) reported seeing attorney advertising in the past year, and about half reported seeing an increase in the amount of attorney advertising.

The IRC endeavored to gauge perceptions of attorney advertising and its impact on the cost of insurance, consumer awareness and understanding of litigation financing practices, and decisions about consulting attorneys about auto insurance claims. The main lines of inquiry in the survey revolved around:

  • How has the public experienced attorney advertising, and what do they think of the impact?
  • Are they aware of litigation financing, and after being given a description, what do they think of it?
  • Would they be more likely to hire an attorney to help settle an insurance claim or to settle directly with an insurer?
  • What was their previous history with auto insurance claims and their experience with consulting a lawyer to help settle an injury claim?

Results indicate that consumers are exposed to more attorney advertising across most mediums – particularly in outdoor ads, with auto accident advertisements being the most prevalent medium – compared to three years ago. While billboard advertising has experienced the most growth over the past three years, TV is the most recalled medium, with 65 percent of respondents recalling seeing TV ads in the past year.

The study reveals the awareness of litigation financing has risen significantly, but most respondents remain neutral in their opinions. Nonetheless, results show consumers want transparency around the involvement of third-party litigation funding in a case. When asked, “To what extent do you agree or disagree that the participants in a lawsuit should be informed when outside investors are financing the litigation,” 69 percent said they agree.

How might increased attorney advertising fuel legal system abuse?

IRC’s findings support a “significant statistical correlation between whether respondents consulted an attorney and their exposure to advertising. Among those who reported seeing attorney advertising, 74 percent consulted an attorney, compared to 48 percent among those who had not seen attorney advertising.”

The American Tort Reform Association (ATRA) estimates that in 2023, over $2.4 billion was spent on local legal services advertising through television, radio, print ads, and billboards across the United States.  Meanwhile, only 47 percent of respondents in a 2023 American Bar Association (ABA) survey said their firm had an annual marketing budget – a decline from 57 percent in 2022. About 80 percent of the solo practitioners in the study did not have a marketing budget, and only 31 percent of firms of 2-9 lawyers had one. 

Therefore, excessive advertising isn’t universal across the legal industry, and the saturation of advertising channels can more likely be attributed to large firms reaping substantial profits from certain practice areas or firms bolstered by third-party litigation financing. In many instances, both of these conditions factors may be involved. For example, data that ranks the leading legal services advertisers in the United States in 2023 by spending reveals a list dominated by large law firms and attorney conglomerates specializing in mass tort, accident, and personal injury litigation.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year on the ties between advertising surge and the growth in mass product-liability and personal-injury cases, along with the rising involvement from a particular segment of the investment industry in these types of litigation. Nearly 800,000 television advertisements for mass tort cases ran in 2023, costing over $160 million. According to the WSJ, the ads shown most frequently that year included those soliciting individuals who might have been exposed to contaminated water at the Camp Lejeune Marine base. This particular mass tort ranks high on the previously mentioned list of top spenders.

The average dollar amount of third-party litigation funder (TPLF) loans provided to individual law firms ranges from $20 million to $100 million. Given that prospective returns for TPLF loans reportedly reach as high as 20 percent for the riskier mass tort litigation, connecting the surge in advertising for recruiting plaintiffs to the TPLF cash stream may not be such a big leap. Yet, over the years, studies have shown that attorney involvement can increase claims costs and the time needed to resolve them, even while reducing value for claimants.

Insurance claims litigation is a growing concern in several states, including Georgia, Louisiana, and Florida, threatening coverage affordability and availability. In Georgia, for example, data indicates that auto coverage affordability for Georgians has been waning faster than in any other state. An August 2024 report, Personal Auto Insurance Affordability in Georgia, issued by IRC, ranked Georgia 47th in terms of auto insurance affordability, while the state tops the most recent list of places that the American Tort Reform Foundation (ATRF) believes judges in civil cases systematically apply laws and court procedures generally to the disadvantage of defendants.

Triple-I and key insurance industry stakeholders define legal system abuse as policyholder or plaintiff attorney practices that increase costs and time to settle insurance claims, including situations when a disputed claim could have been fairly resolved without judicial intervention. Insurers’ legal costs for claims can mount with the increasing number of lawsuit filings, extended litigation, and outsized jury awards (awards exceeding $10 million).

To join the discussion, register for JIF 2024. Follow our blog to learn more about trends in insurance affordability and availability across the property and casualty market.

Auto Insurance, Industry Financials, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment, Market Conditions

Inflation Continues
to Drive Up Consumers’ Insurance Costs

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By William Nibbelin, Senior Research Actuary, Triple-I

Insurance is priced to reflect the underlying risk of every policy. When more claims are filed and the average amount paid of those claims increases, insurance becomes more expensive. A measure of underwriting profitability for insurance carriers is the combined ratio calculated as losses and expense divided by earned premium plus operating expenses divided by written premium. A combined ratio over 100 represents an underwriting loss. When expected losses increase, an insurance carrier must increase premiums by raising rates to maintain a combined ratio under 100.

Commercial auto insurance has recorded a net combined ratio over 100 nine times out of 10 between 2014 and 2023, and, according to the latest forecasting report by Triple-I and Milliman, continues to worsen in 2024. According to the Triple-I Issues Brief, personal auto insurance has had a net combined ratio over 100 for the past three years, with a 2023 net written premium (NWP) growth of 14.3 percent, which was the highest in over 15 years.

From 2014 through 2023 economic and social inflation added $118.9 billion to $137.2 billion in auto liability losses and defense and cost containment (DCC) expenses. This represents 9.9 percent to 11.5 percent of the $1.2 trillion in net losses and DCC for the period and an increase of 24 percent to 31 percent from the previous analysis on years 2013 through 2022.

A new study – “Increasing Inflation on Auto Liability Insurance – Impact as of Year-end 2023” – is the fourth installment of research on the impact of economic and social inflation on insurer costs and claim payouts. Compared to the prior study, Commercial Auto Liability loss and DCC is 20.7 percent to 27.0 percent ($43 billion to $56 billion) higher due to increasing inflation. Personal auto liability loss and DCC is 7.7 percent to 8.2 percent ($76 billion to $81 billion) higher from increasing inflation.

Key Takeaways

  • The compound annual impact of increasing inflation ranges from 2.2 percent to 2.9 percent for commercial auto liability, which is higher than the personal auto liability estimate of 0.7 percent. However, the impact of increasing inflation from a dollar perspective is much higher for personal auto liability compared to commercial auto liability. This is due, in part, to the underlying size of the line of business.
  • Frequency of auto liability claims per $100 million GDP for 2023 is unchanged for commercial auto liability and lower for personal auto liability compared to 2020, when frequency dropped at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic for both lines.
  • Severity of auto liability claims continues to increase year over year and has increased more than 70 percent from 2014 to 2023 for both lines.

Researchers Jim Lynch, FCAS, MAAA, Dave Moore, FCAS, MAAA, LLC, Dale Porfilio, FCAS, MAAA, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, and William Nibbelin, Triple-I’s senior research actuary used a similar methodology as prior studies. Loss development patterns were used to identify inflation for selected property/casualty lines in excess of inflation in the overall economy. The new study extends the model with annual statement data through year-end 2023.

Commercial Auto Liability

The prior study indicated claim severity (size of losses) had risen 72 percent overall from 2013 to 2022, with the median annual increase at 6.3 percent. The new study indicates an additional annual increase of 6.6 percent from 2022 to 2023. The report compares the compound annual growth rate of 6.6 percent from 2014 through 2023 to the compound annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) of 2.8 percent during this same time. With a flat frequency trend combined with an increasing severity trend in recent years for commercial auto liability, this comparison calls out the higher inflation faced by insurers beyond just general inflation trends.

Personal Auto Liability

While replacement costs remain flat to negative providing relief to personal auto physical damage, personal auto liability represents approximately 60 percent of the overall personal auto line. Similar to commercial auto liability – but slightly lower – claim severity for personal auto liability has increased at a compound annual rate of 6.3 percent from 2014 through 2023. However, unlike commercial auto liability, the frequency for personal auto liability has declined slightly in 2022 and 2023, with 85 claims per $100 million GDP in 2023 compared to 90 in 2022 and 100 in 2021.

Limitation of industry data

The report relies on industry data as reported by insurers to the National Association of Insurance Carriers (NAIC) and made available through different reporting suppliers, such as S&P Global Market Intelligence. As such, different individual inflationary elements – whether economic, social, or otherwise – cannot be determined using the underlying actuarial methodologies.

However, like prior studies the bulk of increasing inflation before 2020 is attributed to social inflation, while social inflation and economic inflation dominate increasing inflation together beginning in 2020.

Triple-I continues to foster a research-based conversation around social inflation as part of legal system abuse. For an overview of the topic and other helpful resources about its potential impact on insurers, policyholders, and the economy, check out our knowledge hub.

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Business Risk, Highway Safety, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

Improved Commercial Auto Underwriting Profitability Expected After Years of Struggle

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The commercial auto insurance line has struggled to achieve underwriting profitability for years, even before the inflationary conditions that have been affecting property/casualty lines more recently. This trend has been accompanied by steady growth in net written premiums (NWP).

This weakness in underwriting profitability has been driven by several causes, according to a new Triple-I Issues Brief. One is the fact that vehicles – both commercial vehicles and personal vehicles they collide with – have become increasingly expensive to repair, thanks to new materials and increased reliance on sensors and computer systems designed to make driving more comfortable and safer. This well-established trend has been exacerbated by supply-chain disruptions during COVID-19 and continuing inflation in the pandemic’s aftermath.

Distracted driving and litigation trends also have played a role.

However, Triple-I sees some light on the horizon for commercial auto in terms of the line’s net combined ratio – a standard measure of underwriting profitability calculated by dividing the sum of claim-related losses and expenses by earned premium. A ratio under 100 indicates a profit and one above 100 indicates a loss.

As the chart below shows, the estimated 2024 net combined ratio for commercial auto insurance has improved slightly since 2023, and further improvement is expected over the next two years.

These projected improvements are based on an expectation of continued premium growth – due more to aggressive premium rate increase than to increased exposure – as the rate of insured losses levels off.

Catastrophes, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance

Hurricane Helene Highlights Inland
Flood Protection Gap

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Spanning over 500 miles of the southeastern United States, Hurricane Helene’s path of destruction has drawn public attention to inland flood risk and the need for improved resilience planning and insurance purchase (“take up”) to confront the protection gap.

Extreme rainfall and wind inflicted a combination of catastrophic flooding, landslides, and extreme rainfall and wind gusts dumped an unparalleled 40 trillion gallons of water across Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee, causing hundreds of deaths and billions in insured losses.

Most losses are concentrated in western North Carolina, with much of Buncombe County – home to Asheville and its historic arts district – left virtually unrecognizable. Torrential rain and mountain runoff submerged Asheville under nearly 25 feet of water as rivers swelled, while neighboring communities were similarly flattened or swept away.

Rebuilding will take years, especially as widespread lack of flood insurance forces most victims to seek federal grants and loans for assistance, slowing recovery. Compounding these challenges, misinformation about assistance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has impeded aid operations in certain areas, leading FEMA to issue a fact sheet clarifying the reality on the ground.

A persistent protection gap

Less than 1 percent of residents in Buncombe County had federal flood insurance as Helene struck, as illustrated in the map below, which is based on National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up rate data. Inland flooding isn’t new, and neither is the inland flood-protection gap.

In August 2021, the National Weather Service issued its first-ever flash-flood warning for New York City as remnants of Hurricane Ida brought rains that flooded subway lines and streets in New York and New Jersey. More than 40 people were killed in those states and Pennsylvania as basement apartments suddenly filled with water.

Then, in July 2023, a series of intense thunderstorms resulted in heavy rainfall, deadly flash floods, and severe river flooding in eastern Kentucky and central Appalachia, with hourly rainfall rates exceeding four inches over the course of several days. Subsequent flooding led to 39 fatalities and federal disaster-area declarations for 13 eastern Kentucky counties. According to FEMA, only a few dozen federal flood insurance policies were in effect in the affected areas before the recent storm. 

“We’ve seen some pretty significant changes in the impact of flooding from hurricanes, very far inland,”  Keith Wolfe, Swiss Re’s president for U.S. property and casualty, told Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan in a Triple-I Executive Exchange. “Hurricanes have just behaved very differently in the past five years, once they come on shore, from what we’ve seen in the past 20.”

Need for education and awareness

Low inland take-up rates largely reflect consumer misunderstandings about flood insurance. Though approximately 90 percent of all U.S. natural disasters involve flooding, many homeowners are unaware that a standard homeowners policy doesn’t  cover flood damage. Similarly, many believe flood coverage is unnecessary unless their mortgage lenders require it.  It also is not uncommon for homeowners to drop flood insurance coverage once their mortgage is paid off to save money.

More than half of all homeowners with flood insurance are covered by NFIP, which is part of the FEMA and was created in 1968 – a time when few private insurers were willing to write flood coverage.

In recent years, insurers have grown more comfortable taking on flood risk, thanks in large part to improved data and analytics capabilities. This increased interest in flood among private insurers offers hope for improved affordability of coverage at a time when NFIP’s  Risk Rating 2.0 reforms have driven up flood insurance premium rates for higher-risk property owners.  

New tools and techniques

New tools – such as parametric insurance and community-based catastrophe insurance – also offer ways of improving flood resilience. Unlike traditional indemnity insurance, parametric structures cover risks without the complications of sending adjusters to assess damage after an event. Instead of paying for damage that has occurred, it pays out if certain agreed-upon conditions are met – for example, a specific wind speed or earthquake magnitude in a particular area. If coverage is triggered, a payment is made, regardless of damage.

Speed of payment and reduced administration costs can ease the burden on both insurers and policyholders. Alone, or as part of a package including indemnity coverage, parametric insurance can provide liquidity that businesses and communities need for post-catastrophe resilience.

While localized insurance approaches can support flood resilience, coordinated investments in public education and preemptive mitigation are crucial to reducing risk and making insurance more available and affordable. Intergovernmental collaboration with insurers on development zoning and building codes, for instance, can promote the creation of safer and climate-adaptive infrastructure, lowering human and economic losses.

Learn More:

Removing Incentives for Development From High-Risk Areas Boosts Flood Resilience

Miami-Dade, Fla., Sees Flood Insurance Rate Cuts, Thanks to Resilience Investment

Attacking the Risk Crisis: Roadmap to Investment in Flood Resilience

Insurance Industry

Triple-I launches campaign to highlight challenges to insurance affordability in Georgia

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By Dale Porfilio, Chief Insurance Officer, Insurance Information Institute

As part of its ongoing work to raise awareness of the impacts of legal system abuse, the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) launched a multi-faceted campaign focusing on Georgia. The campaign includes an Interstate 20 billboard in Downtown Atlanta and digital billboards on bus stops and other urban panels across the Metro Atlanta area.

Georgia tops the most recent list of places that the American Tort Reform Foundation (ATRF) calls “judicial hellholes,” states and counties where the organization believes judges in civil cases systematically apply laws and court procedures generally to the disadvantage of defendants. According to ATRF, Georgia earned this ranking due to continued “high nuclear verdicts and liability-expanding decisions by the Georgia Supreme Court.” The state made the list for the first time in the report for 2019-2020, debuting at number 6. 

Triple-I and key insurance industry stakeholders define legal system abuse as policyholder or plaintiff attorney practices that increase costs and time to settle insurance claims, including situations when a disputed claim could have been resolved without judicial intervention. Insurers’ legal costs for claims can mount with the increasing number of lawsuit filings, extended litigation, and outsized jury awards (awards exceeding $10 million). Data from the Insurance Research Council (IRC) indicates that attorney involvement can increase claims costs and the time needed to resolve them, even while reducing value for claimants.

Auto insurance litigation, for example, is a growing concern in Georgia as data reveals coverage affordability for Georgians in this product area has been significantly waning faster than in any other state. An August 2024 report, Personal Auto Insurance Affordability in Georgia, issued by IRC, ranked Georgia 47th in terms of auto insurance affordability. Personal auto insurance expenditures accounted for 2.0 percent of Georgians’ median household income, compared with a 1.5 percent share nationwide. Auto insurance spending in Georgia grew at 5.6 percent annualized between 2014 and 2022, compared with 3.3 percent in the country overall.

Meanwhile, legal service providers spent over $160 million on advertising in Georgia in 2023, according to preliminary data from the American Tort Reform Association (ATRA). 

Earlier this year, a Triple-I issue brief, Legal System Abuse: State of the Risk, highlighted aspects of legal system abuse, including how law firm advertising spend for mass tort cases might play a role in increased filings nationwide. Trial attorneys and third-party litigation funders seeking more profits may use advertising to amp up recruitment for lawsuits with big payouts at the expense of policyholders. A 2023 Triple-I study, Impact of Increasing Inflation on Personal and Commercial Auto Liability Insurance, estimates that increasing inflation drove loss and DCC (defense containment costs) higher in both insurance lines – by 6.5 percent ($61 billion) of total loss and DCC for personal auto and by 19 to 24 percent ($35 to $44 billion) for commercial auto.

Triple-I’s multi-faceted awareness campaign to help educate Georgians about the mounting costs of legal system abuse in the state also includes content such as a video statement by CEO Sean Kevelighan and interviews capturing the opinions of consumers about legal system abuse.

Coverage affordability is a growing concern for many policyholders nationwide. While several factors may impact insurance premiums, unnecessary and excessive litigation can drive higher loss ratios while posing formidable challenges to prediction and mitigation. Triple-I is committed to advancing conversations with business leaders, government regulators, consumers, and other stakeholders to attack the risk crisis and chart a path forward.

We invite you to join the discussion by registering for JIF 2024. Follow our blog to learn more about trends in insurance affordability and availability across the property and casualty market.

Homeowners Insurance, Insurers and the Economy

Buying Your First Home? Know Your Insurance

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

First-time buyers comprised only 32 percent of the housing market in 2023, according to an annual profile by the National Association of Realtors. Though higher compared to 2022, this number is a stark drop from the 38 percent annual average since 1981.

The ongoing risk crisis and housing shortage, paired with rising mortgage rates, compound the issues prospective property owners typically face when purchasing real estate. These factors are distinctly challenging for first-time homeowners, who are often less informed on the insurance coverage necessary for their property.

Sandra Rampersaud, President and CEO of Vespiary Realty and Aequitas Risk Solutions, helps bridge this informational gap. In a recent episode of the All Eyes on Economics podcast with Triple-I Chief Economist and Data Scientist Dr. Michel Léonard, CBE, Rampersaud discussed the services she provides her clients as both a realtor and insurance broker.

Though many first-time buyers, as she explained, “do not have any clue on what it takes to manage…and even upkeep a home,” Rampersaud prepares clients for homeownership by urging them to consider flood risk and other potential losses from the beginning of the process. Due to the increasing need for flood coverage, which is not offered via standard homeowners insurance policies, flood insurance is a common question during her consultations.

“If this home does need flood insurance,” she asked as an example, “can you [the client] financially afford that? Because this is going to be a long-term commitment for 30 years until you own the home.”

The condition of a property may further complicate the buying process. Recent record-breaking climate disasters have created an influx of extensively damaged houses on the current market, Rampersaud said. Thus, more prospective homeowners must acquire builder’s risk insurance to secure a mortgage for and fix their property. Builder’s risk insurance policies vary wildly depending on the type and extent of renovations, so an understanding of the amount of coverage needed is crucial.

“It’s not always easy,” Rampersaud continued, “because the markets right now on the insurance end have actually ceased or minimized certain geographical areas” due to hurricane and storm damage. Some clients can no longer afford a property after accounting for these insurance costs, so finding realtors and insurance brokers experienced in builder’s risk insurance is especially important given present market trends.

U.S. immigrants are often at a disadvantage when trying to navigate these hurdles to first-time homeownership. Rampersaud—herself an Asian-American immigrant—said many of her immigrant clients lack knowledge when it comes to purchasing real estate.

“A parent growing up may or may not have given us the tools we needed,” she explained, and “having that background myself, I’ve always tutored…my clients in saying, ‘Wait a minute, why don’t we think about utilizing these resources and the way you look at your money to get what you need, which is a home?’”

Credit is a common setback, as immigrants may struggle to develop a credit and savings history in the U.S. to obtain financial backing for a home.

Rampersaud also emphasized the significance of choosing a compatible realtor, particularly one who can empower clients with the specific resources they need to smoothen the homebuying process. She encouraged prospective buyers to meet with and interview multiple realtors to determine the best option for them, saying, “A rule of thumb I have is that if I do meet a prospective buyer, we will have a conversation and a consultation, because I really would like to know if we are a good match for each other.”

Overall, on homebuying, Rampersaud said, “It’s a mindset sometimes people need to be guided to.” Entrusting the aid of knowledgeable, insurance-educated guides is one of the greatest long-term mitigative actions buyers can take toward gaining control over today’s acute economic uncertainty.

Listen to Podcast: Spotify, Audible, Apple

Learn More:

Triple-I “Trends and Insights” Issues Brief: Homeowners Insurance Rates

IRC: Homeowners Insurance Affordability Worsens Nationally, Varies Widely by State

Homeowners Claims Costs Rose Faster Than Inflation for 2 Decades

Triple-I Homebuyers Insurance Handbook

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods, Homeowners Insurance

Florida Insurers
Can Weather Another
Big Storm This Season

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Despite warnings from two leading insurance rating agencies that Hurricane Milton weakened or threatened Florida’s recovering home insurance market, the market “can manage losses” from the Category 4 storm “and are ready to cover yet another hurricane,” if one should come this season, according to industry experts who spoke with the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

AM Best and Fitch Ratings each issued reports last week warning that Milton could stretch liquidity of Florida-based residential insurers that are primarily focused on protecting in-state homeowners. But experts closer to Florida’s insurance industry cast doubt on those assertions. One reason is the two companies don’t rate most of the domestic Florida insurers whose financial strength they question, the Sun Sentinel reported.

While cautioning that loss estimates haven’t been released yet from catastrophe modelers, Florida market experts said the state’s insurers have sufficient reinsurance capital to weather not only hurricanes Debby, Helene, and Milton but another Milton-sized storm if one emerges during the latter portion of the 2024 Atlantic season.

Karen Clark, president of catastrophe modeler Karen Clark & Co., told the Sun Sentinel, “Florida insurers and the reinsurers that protect them use sophisticated tools to understand the probabilities of hurricane losses of different sizes.”

Joe Petrelli, president of Demotech – the only rating firm that reviews the financial health of most Florida-based property insurers – said insurers can purchase additional reinsurance capacity if they use up what they purchased to get them through the year.

“Carriers will have catastrophe reinsurance in place for another event, so it should not be an issue,” Petrelli told the Sun Sentinel.

“While we expect Milton to be a larger wind loss event compared to hurricanes Debby and Helene, we do not anticipate it to be near the level of insured losses caused by Hurricane Ian,” Mark Friedlander, Triple-I’s director of corporate communications said.

Ian was a Category 4 major hurricane that made landfall in Southwest Florida in September 2022 and caused an estimated $50 billion to $60 billion in private insured losses. The estimate accounted for up to $10 billion in litigated claims due to one-way attorney fees that were in effect at the time of the storm.

“The market is in its best financial condition in many years due to state legislative reforms in 2022 and 2023 that addressed the man-made factors which caused the Florida risk crisis – legal system abuse and claim fraud,” Friedlander said. “Florida residential insurers also have adequate levels of reinsurance to cover catastrophic loss events like Milton.”

Learn More:

Triple-I “State of the Risk Issues Brief”: Attacking Florida’s Property/Casualty Risk Crisis

Florida Homeowners Premium Growth Slows as Reforms Take Hold, Inflation Cools

Legal Reforms Boost Florida Insurance Market; Premium Relief Will Require More Time

It’s not too late to register for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum: Solutions for a New Age of Risk. Join us in Miami, Nov. 19 and 20.

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance

Removing Incentives
for Development From High-Risk Areas Boosts Flood Resilience

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(Photo by Jonathan Sloane/Getty Images)

By Lewis Nibbelin, Contributing Writer, Triple-I

Withdrawing federal subsidies in climate-vulnerable areas can deter development and promote disaster resilience, according to a recent Nature Climate Change study. The study found that these benefits extend beyond the targeted areas.

These findings underscore the utility of land conservation as hazard protection, as well as the critical role financial incentives play in driving – or obstructing – resilience.

A natural experiment

“Empirical research into this question is limited because few policy experiments exist where a clear comparison can be made of ‘treatment’ settings, where incentives for development have been removed, and ‘control’ settings, similar areas where such incentives remain,” the study states. “One such experiment does exist, however.”

The 1982 Coastal Barrier Resources Act (CBRA) rendered more than one million acres along U.S. coasts ineligible for various incentives, including access to flood insurance through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Though development in these high-risk areas remains legal, the CBRA shifts total responsibility onto property owners to manage that risk.

Decades later, areas under the CBRA have 83 percent fewer buildings per acre than similar non-designated areas, leading to higher development densities in less risky neighboring areas. Subsequent reductions in flood damages have generated hundreds of millions in NFIP savings per year – due not only to NFIP ineligibility in CBRA areas, but also to fewer and less costly flood claims filed in neighboring areas.

Neighboring areas benefit from the natural infrastructure provided by undeveloped wetlands, which can ease flood risk severity by impeding the rate and flow of flooding.

Housing demand a challenge

Despite the evident value of limiting development in high-risk areas, such limitations are challenging to implement during a nationwide affordable housing shortage. Navigating housing demands in tandem with a rise in natural disasters will require a coordinated effort on local, state, and federal levels.

One approach is FEMA’s Community Rating System (CRS), a voluntary program that incentivizes local floodplain management practices exceeding the NFIP’s minimum standards. Class 1 is the highest rating, qualifying residents for a 45 percent reduction in their premiums. Of the nearly 23,000 participating NFIP communities, only 1,500 participate in the CRS. Of those 1,500, only two have achieved the highest rating: Tulsa, Okla., and Roseville, Calif.

While high ratings are difficult to secure, investments in flood planning yield long-term gains via safer infrastructure and more affordable premiums, with discounts in lower-rated jurisdictions still equating to millions in savings.

CRS discounts are especially advantageous following NFIP’s Risk Rating 2.0 reforms and increased private-sector interest in flood risk. Both have contributed to a more representative and actuarially sound flood insurance market that sets rates based on property-specific risks, thereby raising the premiums of riskier property owners.

Concerns about effective climate risk mitigation strategies persist, however – especially in the wake of unprecedented destruction wrought by Hurricane Helene.

While NFIP reforms are making flood insurance more equitable, many homeowners – including many of those most impacted by Hurricane Helene – are unaware that flood coverage is not offered by a standard homeowners policy. Likewise, many believe that flood insurance is necessary only if required by their lenders, leaving inland residents more susceptible to costly flood damages.

This lack of common knowledge about insurance is not a failure of consumers – rather, it represents the insurance industry’s urgent need to provide greater outreach, public education, and stakeholder collaboration.

Incentivizing public-private collaboration has demonstrated success, so removing federal incentives from additional high-risk areas would require extensive multidisciplinary coordination to prevent inadvertently widening the insurance protection gap. Emerging approaches to risk mitigation and resilience – such as community-based catastrophe insurance, New York City’s recent parametric insurance flood pilot, and the nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model in California – offer opportunities for fairer rates and targeted local resilience.

If paired with policies based on the CBRA, such innovations could help ensure that appropriate risk transfer occurs alongside substantial risk reduction.

Learn More:

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Flood

Executive Exchange: Using Advanced Tools to Drill Into Flood Risk

Accurately Writing Flood Coverage Hinges on Diverse Data Sources

Lee County, Fla., Towns Could Lose NFIP Flood Insurance Discounts

Miami-Dade, Fla., Sees Flood-Insurance Rate Cuts, Thanks to Resilience Investment

Milwaukee District Eyes Expanding Nature-Based Flood-Mitigation Plan

Attacking the Risk Crisis: Roadmap to Investment in Flood Resilience

It’s not too late to register for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum: Solutions for a New Age of Risk. Join us in Miami, Nov. 19 and 20.

Auto Insurance, Insurers and the Economy, Legal Environment

Louisiana Is Least Affordable State for Personal Auto Coverage Across the South and U.S.

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Despite strong income growth that has helped improve personal auto insurance affordability in Louisiana, the state remains the least affordable among its Southern neighbors and the rest of the United States, according to the Insurance Research Council (IRC).

In 2022, the average annual premium expenditure per vehicle for auto insurance in Louisiana was $1,588, which is nearly 40 percent above the national average and nearly double that of the lowest-cost Southern state of North Carolina ($840), the IRC report says. Louisiana’s spending accounted for 2.67 percent of the median household income in the state.  

Florida’s average annual premium expenditures, at $1,625, exceed Louisiana’s, but the state is slightly more affordable; Florida’s higher median income results in a lower expenditure share of income (2.49 percent).  The Sunshine State is not included in the IRC report because it is the only no-fault jurisdiction among the Southern states, a fact that skews some comparisons.

All the Southern states had median household income below the overall U.S. figure, contributing to affordability challenges in the region as a whole. This was especially true for Mississippi, where the median income was 35 percent below the U.S. median.

In addition to low average household incomes, Louisiana’s affordability issues stem from such cost drivers as a higher tendency to file injury claims when an accident occurs, a high rate of underinsured motorists, and a high rate of claim litigation. Previous IRC claim research has pointed to high rates of attorney involvement in auto injury claims in the state.

In addition, Louisiana received the second-lowest score in a 2019 survey of businesses regarding the fairness of states’ litigation landscapes conducted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. It also is a perennial member of the “Judicial Hellholes” list published by the American Tort Reform Association (ATRA).

IRC – like Triple-I – is an affiliate of The Institutes.

Learn More:

Despite Improvements, Louisiana Is Still Least Affordable State for Auto Insurance

Who’s Financing Legal System Abuse? Louisianans Need to Know

Louisiana Still Least Affordable State for Personal Auto, Homeowners Insurance

Louisiana Litigation Funding Reform Vetoed; AOB Ban, Insurer Incentive Boost Make It Into Law

Louisiana’s Insurance Woes Worsen as Florida Works to Fix Its Problems

Louisiana Insurance Regulator Issues Cease & Desist Order to Texas Law Firm

It’s not too late to register for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum: Solutions for a New Age of Risk. Join us in Miami, Nov. 19 and 20.

Auto Insurance, Business Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Industry Financials, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

Personal Lines Underwriting Results Improve, Reducing Gap With Commercial Lines

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The U.S. property and casualty insurance industry experienced better-than-expected economic and underwriting results in the first half of 2024, according to the latest forecasting report by Triple-I and Milliman.  The report was released during a members-only webinar on Oct. 10.

The industry’s estimated net combined ratio of 99.4 represented a 2.3-points year-over-year improvement, with commercial lines continuing to outperform personal lines. Combined ratio is a standard measure of underwriting profitability, in which a result below 100 represents a profit and one above 100 represents a loss. 

Much of the overall underwriting gain was due to growth in personal lines net premiums written. Commercial lines underwriting profitability remained mostly flat.

“The ongoing performance gap between personal and commercial lines remains, but that gap is closing,” said Triple-I Chief Insurance Officer Dale Porfilio. “The significant rate increases necessary to offset inflationary pressures on losses are driving the improved results in personal auto and homeowners. With that said, the impact of natural catastrophes such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton threaten the improved homeowners results and are a significant source of uncertainty.”

During the webinar Q&A period, Porfilio provided insight on the potential impact of Hurricane Milton on the Triple-I 2024 net combined ratio forecast during the Q&A portion. One key figure regarding potential catastrophe losses is the impact on the 2024 net combined ratio forecast of adding one additional billion dollars of catastrophe losses. Each additional billion dollars of catastrophe losses is an impact of one tenth of a percent on the forecast.

Triple-I has loaded an estimate for catastrophe losses for the second half of 2024 based on historical experience, trends, economic projections, etc. prior to Milton, so there is no expectation of needing to add $30 billion to $40 billion – the recent estimate published by Gallagher Re.

If there was a need to add an additional $30 billion in catastrophe losses, that would be a +3.0-point impact on the forecast.

The net combined ratio for homeowners insurance of 104.9 was a six-point improvement over first-half 2023.  The line is expected to achieve underwriting profitability in 2026, with continued double-digit growth in net written premiums expected in 2025.   

Personal auto’s net combined ratio of 100 is 4.9 points better than 2023. The line’s 2024 net written premium growth rate of 14.5 percent is the highest in over 15 years. 

Jason B. Kurtz – a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman – elaborated on profitability concerns within commercial lines. Commercial lines 2024 net combined ratio remained relatively flat at 97.1 percent. Improvements in commercial property, commercial multi-peril, and workers compensation were offset by continued deterioration in commercial auto and general liability.

“Commercial auto expectations are worsening and continue to remain unprofitable through at least 2026,” he said. “General liability has worsened and is expected to be unprofitable through 2026.”

Michel Léonard, Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist, said P&C replacement costs are expected to overtake overall inflation in 2025.

“P&C carriers benefited from a ‘grace period’ over a few quarters during which replacement costs were increasing at a slower pace than overall inflation,” Dr. Léonard said. “That won’t be the case in 2025.”  

It’s not too late to register for Triple-I’s Joint Industry Forum: Solutions for a New Age of Risk. Join us in Miami, Nov. 19 and 20.