Monthly Archives: October 2024

Catastrophes, Coastal Property, Disaster Preparedness, Disaster Resilience, Flood Insurance, Floods

CSU: Post-Helene, 2 More “Above Normal” Weeks Of Storm Activity Expected

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(Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

As work continues to address the harm inflicted by Hurricane Helene, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) warn that the next two weeks “will be characterized by [tropical storm] activity at above normal levels.” 

The CSU researchers define “above normal” by accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of more than 10. This level of hurricane intensity has been reached in less than one-third of two-week periods in early October since records have been kept.

Hurricane Kirk, they wrote, is “extremely likely” to generate more than 10 ACE during its lifetime in the eastern/central Atlantic. Tropical Depression 13 has just formed and is likely to generate considerable ACE in its lifetime across the Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an additional area for formation in the Gulf of Mexico that should be monitored for potential U.S. impacts.

“Hurricane Kirk is forecast to track northwestward across the open Atlantic over the next few days, likely becoming a powerful major hurricane in the process,” said CSU research scientist and Triple-I Non-resident Scholar Phil Klotzbach. “The system looks to generate approximately an additional 20 ACE before dissipation, effectively guaranteeing the above-normal category for the two-week period.”

With more than 160 people confirmed dead in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee,  Helene is now the second-deadliest hurricane to strike the mainland United States in the past 55 years, topped only by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Reinsurance broker Gallagher Re predicts that private insurance market losses from Helene will rise to the mid-to-high single-digit billion dollar level, higher than its pre-landfall forecast of $3 billion to $6 billion, according to Chief Science Officer and Meteorologist Steve Bowen.

As always – and with particular urgency in the wake of Helene’s devastation – Triple-I urges everyone in hurricane-prone areas to stay informed, be prepared, and follow the instructions of local authorities. We also ask that people be mindful of the potential for flood danger far inland, as reflected in the experiences of many non-coastal communities during Hurricane Ida and Helene.

Learn More:

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

Triple-I “State of the Risk” Issues Brief: Hurricanes

Hurricanes Don’t Just Affect Coasts; Experts Say: “Get Flood Insurance”

Business Insurance, Business Risk, Insurers and the Economy, Market Conditions

Strike’s Duration Will Determine Impact on P/C Insurance Industry

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By Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, Chief Economist and Data Scientist, Triple-I 

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) went on strike on Tuesday, Oct 1. The strike is expected to affect more than 20 ports along the Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast, including the ports of New York and New Jersey, Baltimore and Houston.  

Focusing specifically on the strike’s impact on the property/casualty industry – and given the specific goods transiting through those ports – the impact will be most direct for homeowners, personal and commercial auto, and commercial property. More specifically, the strike may lead to increased replacement costs and delays in the supply and replacement of homeowners’ content, such as garments and furniture; of European-made vehicles and vehicle replacement parts; and of concrete, especially for commercial construction.  

However, the strike’s impact will be significantly mitigated by current inventories for each of the impacted insurable goods and the tightness of related just-in-time supply chains. At minimum, Triple-I estimates, the strike would have to last one to two weeks to trigger further sustained increases in P/C replacement costs or accelerate a current slowdown in P/C underlying growth.   

 Another way the insurance industry would be affected is from losses from coverage protecting against adverse business costs of events, such as strikes. These coverages include, but are not limited to, business interruption, political risk, credit, supply-chain insurance, and some marine and cargo. However, most such policies have waiting periods ranging from five to 10 days, and then deductibles, before payment is triggered. As a result, losses for those lines are likely to be limited if the strike lasts less than one to two weeks.  

 Using a one to two-week timeline is helpful: The last major longshoremen’s strike in the United States – at the port of Long Beach, Calif., in 2021 – lasted one week.   

Insurance News

Digital Payments Surge Amid Growing Cyber Risks: Chubb

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The global digital payments landscape, projected to hit $16.6 trillion by 2028, is grappling with a surge in security breaches and scams, with U.S. consumers reporting losses of $1.8 billion due to bank transfer and payment scams in 2023 alone, according to a new report from Chubb.

Despite widespread adoption, only one in three users fully trust digital payment technologies, underscoring the need for enhanced security measures and consumer education, the report found.

Concerns about security of digital payments creates an opportunity for insurers to provide personal cyber coverage that offers consumers greater peace of mind, the report noted.

“In this dynamic environment, insurance plays a pivotal role in fostering trust and enabling the continued growth of the digital payments ecosystem. By providing protection against financial losses resulting from cyber scams, technology malfunctions and data breaches, insurance empowers individuals and businesses to embrace digital payments with confidence,” said Sean Ringsted, chief digital business officer of Chubb.

The Growth and Risks of Digital Payments

The total transaction value of digital payments is projected to be $11.6 trillion in 2024, with continued growth expected at a 9.5% annual rate through 2028, according to Chubb. This underscores the magnitude of the shift toward digital payments globally.

In the U.S. alone, the number of noncash payments, excluding checks, has increased more than 500% between 2000 and 2021, according to the Federal Reserve System. Digital wallets are projected to account for more than $25 trillion in global transaction value, or 49% of all online and point-of-sale sales combined, by 2027.

As reliance on digital payment technologies grows, so does the prevalence of security breaches and scams, Chubb warned.

Data compromise incidents involving financial institutions increased by more than 330% from 2019 to 2023. In 2023, U.S. consumers reported losing $1.8 billion due to scams involving bank transfers and payments. The three largest banks that offer the Zelle payment network rejected scam disputes worth approximately $560 million from 2021 to 2023, according to a U.S. Senate Subcommittee analysis.

Businesses are also feeling the financial pain, with merchant losses due to online payment fraud predicted to surpass $362 billion globally between 2023 and 2028. Juniper Research anticipates $91 billion in losses in 2028 alone.

“From the U.S. perspective, the survey results suggest that some consumers have been lulled into a false sense of security around digital payments,” said Robert Poliseno, president of North America Digital Insurance at Chubb. “To protect all consumers, key ecosystem participants — including financial institutions, merchants and insurers — should educate users about potential risks, including the diverse range of cyber scams, and emphasize protective measures, such as adopting secure digital practices, raising awareness of common pitfalls and utilizing various forms of available risk transfer products-like insurance.”

The Trust Gap in Digital Payments

Despite widespread adoption, trust in digital payment technologies is relatively low, according to the survey. Nearly one-third of respondents globally lack confidence in digital payment providers’ security measures. Concerns about the adequacy of customer support (36%) and confidentiality (29%) are also among the main impediments to full trust, the survey found.

The possibility of being scammed is a leading barrier to fully trusting digital payments. Globally, 64% of respondents are very or quite concerned about cyber scams when using digital technology to transfer money, the survey found. In the U.S., 49% of respondents are very or quite concerned.

Most respondents concerned about cyber scams indicate that they have altered their behavior or reduced their usage of certain platforms: 61% globally, 60% in the U.S., 56% in Latin America and 65% in Asia.

The Role of Insurance in Promoting Trust and Adoption

A significant portion of digital payment users mistakenly believe they are protected against losses in various scenarios, such as technology malfunctions or data breaches. Younger respondents, frequent users, and those engaging in risky behaviors could be especially at risk of incorrectly assuming they have automatic protection.

However, the Chubb survey found that actual usage of insurance is relatively low — only 16% globally have personal cyber scam or fraud insurance, while 23% have payment protection insurance.

The presence of transaction insurance plays a critical role in increasing users’ trust in digital payment technologies, Chubb reported. Holding such insurance significantly boosts confidence for three-quarters of consumers.

Consumers are willing to pay for this peace of mind, Chubb found, with the highest proportion willing to spend 6% or more of the transaction amount on insurance.

View the full report here.