Insurers Are Addressing Climate Risks

By Richard Creedon

The insurance industry is uniquely positioned to provide leadership in the public policy dialogue over climate risks. Our contribution to this conversation is crucial because insurers recognize the growing intensity of threats to the properties insurers financially protect. 

In 2020, the U.S. witnessed a record hurricane season with 30 named storms; 12 of them made landfall. We also observed the worst wildfire season on record with more than 10 million acres burned—roughly the size of Maryland.

The U.S.’s auto, home, and business insurers cumulatively saw their catastrophe-caused insured loss payouts more than double to $47.1 billion for the first nine-months of 2020 from $21.5 billion in the same nine-month period a year earlier, Verisk and the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA) found.

The federal government quantified this trend, too. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there were 22 weather and climate disasters in the U.S. in 2020. Damages from these disasters exceeded $1 billion each and totaled approximately $95 billion for all 22 events when including both insured and uninsured losses, NOAA estimated.

The demand for insurance industry involvement in addressing climate risks is urgent. With a new administration and Congressional majority, climate is a priority issue in Washington, D.C. Industry leaders would be wise to explore pro-actively climate risk solutions for business and society—and not wait for elected officials to prescribe a response.

I believe climate risk is a challenge that should be integrated into each insurer’s Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework. That means examining climate risk impacts on insurer investments, underwriting and operational priorities—and then managing all dimensions of those findings.

The Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) framework is already in place. Adding additional resources to this process will provide further intelligence for how insurers ought to operate as we move forward. For example, at my company, we decided rather than wait for regulators to try to limit fossil fuel investments, we created a green energy portfolio. The idea was to create a position in non-carbon energy production—and be opportunistic as the economy transitions toward non-carbon alternatives.

We believe this transition can be done responsibly while still managing the primary mandate of securing financial strength for policyholders.

One of the biggest challenges we will likely face is rising consumer expectations. We also must remember the political arena often animates public expectations. As an industry, we have at times struggled to produce innovative products and services.

Whether its personal or commercial insurance, our consumers want offerings that are relevant for their individual needs, which today includes being more resilient to climate risk. Everyone in the financial sector faces these challenges but I am confident insurers have the insights and expertise to deliver the innovation required in our changing world.

Richard Creedon, Chairman of the Board and CEO of the member companies of the Utica National Insurance Group is also Chairman of the Insurance Information Institute’s Executive Leadership Committee

Black History Month Business Profile: The Flip Shop

By Scott Holeman, Media Relations Director, Triple-I

During Black History Month, Triple-I is sharing inspirational stories from business owners who overcome obstacles to reach success through resilience.

Teddy Johnson, owner of The Flip Shop in Joplin, Missouri, raised the bar to score a ‘10’ in business, after a life-changing accident.

At the Flip Shop, kids start learning tumbling skills as early as 18 months.

Click on the video above to view the story.

Experts discuss social inflation in a Tobin College of Business webinar

Social inflation – increasing insurance claims costs related to legislative and litigation trends – may be spreading beyond the United States, attendees were told at a webinar with the Greenberg School of Risk Management of St. John’s Tobin College of Business.

The webinar, held on February 10, was aimed to help lawyers and claims professionals understand the phenomenon, which is characterized by claims costs rising faster than general economic inflation can explain.

Annette Hofmann, Ph.D., professor of actuarial science at the Maurice R. Greenberg School of Risk Management, Insurance and Actuarial Science, pointed out that “though it is largely a U.S. issue, there are signs of social inflation in other countries with potential for further international contagion, albeit not to the same degree as in the U.S.”

She added that the impact of social inflation in the U.S. has been most evident in commercial auto liability insurance.

“Litigation finance, societal attitudes toward corporations and large jury payouts are all behind the phenomenon,” according to James Lynch, Chief Actuary of Triple-I and one of the presenters.

In his presentation, Lynch showed how incurred losses in commercial auto liability have been climbing steeply since 2010.

Lynch said Triple-I studied the link between social inflation and trends in actuarial data (rising loss development factors) by focusing on long-tailed liability lines including Commercial Auto, Medical Malpractice and Other Liability.

He said actuaries look at the pattern of reported losses – the sum of claims experts’ estimates of every known loss. Even if the ultimate amount of claims rises or falls from year to year, the pattern of emergence should stay the same. That hypothesis is at the core of standard actuarial practices.

In this case, it is increasing.

One interesting offshoot of this work is that actuaries can also predict how much in losses will be reported in any 12-month period. The chart on the right shows how actuaries analyzing countrywide data have not been able to do this in commercial auto. And this is not just happening in auto, medical malpractice occurrence, and other liability are seeing the same effect.

Lynch went on to discuss some of the potential reasons behind large jury payouts. One explanation is the darker view of life that people have. Confidence in government has plummeted, incomes and life expectancy have declined, and Google Trends indicates that searches for the word “dystopia” have increased by over 400 percent from 2005 to 2020.

In the meantime, Lynch and another presenter, Julie Campanini of Magna Legal Services, noted that huge amounts of money have been normalized by billion-dollar lottery jackpots, sky-high celebrity net-worth, and news reports of “nuclear” awards verdicts.

Other speakers included:

  • Jonathan E. Meer, partner at Wilson Elser, who spoke about the state of tort reform.
  • Jeff Cordray, a vice president and economist at Christensen Associates, who discussed the importance of determining economic damages, particularly when there is a potential for punitive damages in a case.

To view the slides from the webinar click here.

New FEMA Tool Maps Community Vulnerability to 18 Natural Hazards

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recently unveiled its National Risk Index (NRI) for natural hazards. The online mapping application identifies communities most at risk for 18 types of events. It visualizes the risk metrics and includes data about expected annual losses, social vulnerabilities, and community resilience. 

Casey Zuzak, senior risk analyst at FEMA, described the index at the recent Triple-I Resilience Town Hall – the first this year in a series presented by Triple-I and ResilientH2O Partners.

Zuzak explained that the NRI draws from a wide range of data and analytics resources and considers the probabilities or frequencies of 18 natural hazards and the population and property value exposed. Expected annual loss is calculated separately for each hazard, then summed to generate a composite score for all 18.

NRI enables FEMA to talk with communities about specific risks, identify high-impact mitigation opportunities, and learn how they can make the best use of their risk-management resources.

“NRI wasn’t built in a silo,” Zuzak said. “We brought in local and county and state governments, tribal and territorial governments to make sure we had the best available data. We also brought in academia, nonprofit organizations, and private industry to make sure we had everyone’s input.”

Part of an effort to reduce costs and eliminate inconsistent risk assessments for planning, the NRI uses a national baseline risk assessment to identify areas that offer high returns on risk-mitigation investment. The NRI can help communities:

  • Update emergency plans;
  • Improve hazard-mitigation plans;
  • Prioritize and allocate resources;
  • Identify need for more refined risk assessments;
  • Encourage community risk communication and engagement;
  • Educate homeowners and renters;
  • Support adoption of enhanced codes and standards;
  • Inform long-term community recovery.

“Nothing like this – a free, consistent, comprehensive nationwide risk assessment tool that addresses multiple hazards and includes social vulnerability and community resilience – existed before,” said Dr. Michel Léonard, CBE, vice president and senior economist for Triple-I. “This is an important addition to the toolkit of risk managers, insurers, policymakers, and others working to create a safer, more resilient world.”

Poverty and opioids unexpectedly tied to rise in personal umbrella claim severity: Gen Re

Insurers saw  more costly personal umbrella claims before the start of 2020, according to a Gen Re analysis, and the reinsurer expects  such claims  to continue as we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Personal umbrella insurance covers liability costs beyond the limits of the policyholders’ homeowners or auto policies.

Gen Re has uncovered some of the top drivers for the large claims, and they have to do with some of society’s harshest ills. Top reasons cited were increases in:

  • the annual poverty rate;
  • opioid prescription rates;
  • fatal accidents;
  • brain injuries;
  • attorney representation; and
  • injuries involving a fatality and multiple claimants.

Other notable predictors linked with higher claims severity include laws permitting recreational marijuana and a lack of motorcycle helmet laws.

Gen Re said poverty, opioid use, and marijuana laws were unexpected predictors of umbrella claim severity and that all of the analysis’ findings “will facilitate deeper client interaction on this line of business.”

 “Social inflation” – a term used to describe growth in liability risks and costs related to litigation trends – has been a growing concern for insurers. The phenomenon has mostly affected the commercial auto and general liability lines, but the findings here – particularly the increase in attorney representation – suggest that it might be making inroads into personal lines.

Triple-I and Milliman forecast: commercial and personal auto and workers comp

By Loretta Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

During an exclusive Groundhog Day webinar presented to Triple-I members by Triple-I and Milliman, experts talked about what the insurance industry can expect in 2021.

Auto Insurance Report editor Brian Sullivan looked at both personal and commercial auto insurance.  “For the first nine months, private passenger auto liability written premium was down less than two percent, but losses incurred were down more than 14 percent with loss ratios likely to be in the mid-50s.”

On the commercial side, Sullivan noted that commercial auto trends aren’t as powerful as those for personal lines. “Things have gotten better in terms of losses, but not that much better; certainly, nothing like personal auto,” Sullivan said.

Jeff Eddinger, senior division executive at the National Council for Compensation Insurance (NCCI), gave an early look at 2020 results for workers compensation insurance. “The pandemic has landed the U.S. economy into a recession. Significant job losses combined with changes in wage and rate levels have put downward pressure on premiums.  NCCI estimates that private carrier net premium written will be down about 8 percent for 2020.” 

Eddinger noted that as the virus began to spread in 2020, so did the concern that COVID claims could overwhelm the system. “Fortunately, that has turned out not to be the case. At the same time, there has been a drop in non-COVID claims, due in part to more remote work and less work-related driving. So far, incurred losses have decreased about 8 percent, in line with the drop in total premium. As a result, the estimated calendar year combined ratio for 2020 is almost unchanged from 2019 at 86. This would be the seventh straight year of underwriting profit for workers compensation.”

The industry is financially strong but continues to face uncertainty, Eddinger warned. “The vaccine rollout has begun, but new cases of the virus in the U.S. have soared to record levels.  In addition to COVID claims, industry leaders are concerned about regulatory activity related to presumptions, the economic downturn and the long-term impact of working from home,” Eddinger said.

To learn about Triple-I membership, visit iiimembership.org

Triple-I celebrates Black History Month

By Scott Holeman, Director, Media Relations, Triple-I

During Black History Month, we are sharing inspirational stories from Black business owners who are demonstrating resilience in these challenging times.

It’s been a tough year for many businesses, but Kansas City Bar-B-Que co-owner, Debbie Jones, shows that a little resilience and ingenuity brings a recipe for success.

Click on the video above to view the story.

Triple-I/Milliman Groundhog Day Report Projects Insurer Growth, Profits In 2021

By Loretta Worters, Vice President, Media Relations, Triple-I

A pandemic, civil unrest, and weather-related catastrophes impacted the U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry in 2020, but not to the extent that was originally feared.

Few predict a repeat of the events of 2020, yet new projections from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman envision strong premium growth for 2021 with an underwriting result comparable to last year.

Despite myriad challenges, U.S. auto, homeowners, and commercial insurers are projected to realize a modest 1.9 percent growth in net premiums written and to book a combined ratio of 98.9 through year-end 2020, according to Triple-I and Milliman. This year, net premiums written will increase 6.1 percent, and the combined ratio will improve slightly, to 98.5, the two organizations project. Net premiums written are premiums written after reinsurance transactions. The combined ratio is the percentage of each premium dollar a P/C insurer spends on claims and expenses.

“We think the year ended surprisingly well, given the difficult circumstances the industry found itself in,” said James Lynch, FCAS, senior vice president and chief actuary, Triple-I.  “We project a slight underwriting profit in 2020, fairly similar to 2019. We project similar results over the next two years.”

The year-end 2020 projections, along with those for this year and next, were unveiled during a Triple-I members-only webinar on February 2, “Triple-I/Milliman Underwriting Projections 2021-2022: Groundhog Day Edition,” moderated by Triple-I CEO Sean Kevelighan.

P/C insurance industry premium growth will rebound in 2021, the Triple-I and Milliman projected, as the hard market in commercial lines will augment exposure growth from the economic recovery. Panelists also forecast continued underwriting profits through 2022, with projections for several major lines of business.

“Economists expect growth to improve this year and next, which will fuel growth in exposures in most lines,” said Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, an independent risk management, benefits, and technology firm.

Kurtz noted, however, that recent signs of slowdown are “concerning – retail sales fell in December, adjusted for the season and new jobless claims remain stubbornly high.  So that may delay growth, as might the spread of so-called variant coronaviruses, which the CDC is expecting will dominate the cases in the spring.”

During the webinar, Dr. Michel Léonard, CBE, vice president and senior economist, Triple-I, took a preliminary look at third-quarter 2020 P/C insurance industry financial results.

The U.S. P/C insurers turned in a profitable performance in 2020’s third quarter, even as the industry’s net income dropped 26 percent for the second quarter in a row, according to Dr. Léonard.  “While it was below the 10-year average, it was overall stronger than expected given the structurally low-rate environment yields and equity market volatility.”

Léonard concluded: “Prudent asset management and sound underwriting practices ensured the continued financial stability of the industry, even as we faced a uniquely challenging year, delivering on our contribution to systemic financial stability and commitment to policyholders.”

To learn about Triple-I membership, visit iiimembership.org

Insurance Will Face COVID-19 Side-effects Even After Pandemic Ends

A new survey from the Insurance Research Council (IRC) finds that two-thirds of respondents worked from home at least part of the time during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey, conducted in October, also reveals half expect to continue working from home entirely or alternate between working and not working from home in the future.

Many consumers also expect to continue shopping on-line, with nearly half saying they expect to do less in-person shopping in retail stores even after the pandemic retreats. Both findings point to a continuing reduction in vehicle travel.

One-third of homeowners indicated they had undertaken substantial home improvement projects since the start of the pandemic. Significant home improvements have insurance implications to the extent that they increase the replacement cost of the home or, in some cases such as installing swimming pools, introduce additional liability risk. Other pandemic developments with possible impact on liability risk include the number of Americans adopting dogs (21 percent) or acquiring firearms (13 percent).

The study also explored attitudes toward economic conditions and steps taken in response. Half the respondents said they were concerned about their financial future; the most commonly cited actions taken were to reduce spending on travel and entertainment. A small percentage of respondents indicated that they had taken steps to reduce insurance spending, such as shopping for less expensive insurance or reducing coverage.

“This survey suggests the effects of COVID-19, including those impacting the property-casualty insurance industry, may continue even after the virus is under control,” said David Corum, CPCU, vice president of the IRC. “The results also reveal younger, urban, and lower income consumers have been more severely impacted by many economic aspects of the pandemic.”

The report, Consumer Responses to the Pandemic and Implications for Insurance, presents findings from the October 2020 survey of 2,147 adults who acknowledged some role in household insurance purchasing decisions.

For more information on the study’s methodology and findings, contact David Corum at (484) 831-9046 or by email at IRC@TheInstitutes.org.

ABOUT IRC: The Insurance Research Council (IRC) is a division of the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the trusted source of unique, data-driven insights on insurance to inform and empower consumers. The IRC provides timely and reliable research to all parties involved in public policy issues affecting insurance companies and their customers. The IRC does not lobby or advocate legislative positions. It is supported by leading property-casualty insurance organizations.

Study: Most Americans disapprove of COVID-19 lawsuits, prefer government aid for small businesses

The vast majority of Americans believe COVID-19 relief should come via public policy solutions — and not litigation — according to polling released last week by the American Tort Reform Association (ATRA). 

 Key takeaways from the poll include:

  • 59% say those harmed by the pandemic should get assistance from policies passed by elected officials, versus just 7% who say they should get payouts from lawsuits;
  • 74% say small businesses affected by COVID-19 should be supported by government grants or loans versus 6% who say lawyers should help small businesses pursue legal claims.
Source: ATRA

More information on the polling results is available on ATRA’s website.

For information on the principles the broader insurance industry has put forth for a government-backed pandemic policy solution, click here