While COVID-19’s impact on the insurance industry will require time to fully understand, litigation, legislation, and concerns about pricing and policy language will be with us for some time to come.
“Significant” changes in policy language seen
The majority of respondents to an Artemis re/insurance market survey believe the COVID-19 pandemic will result in “significant changes” to business interruption (BI) policy wordings.
In fact, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is conducting a review focused on obtaining legal clarity on policies connected to the pandemic and which claims are valid and which aren’t.
FCA’s Interim CEO Chris Woolard said recently that while some BI policies are paying out for virus-related issues, others remain “within dispute” due to ambiguities in their wordings.
Outside of the 67.6% who stated a belief that COVID-19 will drive “significant changes” in BI policy wordings, 21.6% expect a “moderate amount” of change, while the remaining 10.8% said the effect will be “limited.”
Loss estimates vary
The Artemis survey also shows 67% of respondents expect the industry to face between $80 billion and $100 billion of underwriting losses due to the pandemic. This is roughly in line with Lloyd’s of London’s earlier estimate of a $107 billion global industry impact.
But analysts from investment bank Berenberg said they believe global COVID-19 claims will be more manageable, estimating a range from $50 billion to $70 billion for the total bill. The analysts don’t specify whether this includes both life and non-life insurance claims from the pandemic, but they do point to the estimate from Lloyd’s of London as being too high.
“We estimate $50-70bn for global COVID-19 claims,” Berenberg’s analysts state. “Significantly less than the $107bn estimate reported by the Lloyd’s of London market estimate on 14 May.”
Las Vegas Hospitality Union Sues Employers
Las Vegas Culinary Workers Union Local 226 is suing several employers on the Las Vegas strip over unsafe working conditions during the coronavirus pandemic, Business Insurance reported.
The union, representing 60,000 workers, said in a statement it is asking for injunctive relief under the Labor-Management Relations Act based on the “hazardous working conditions” workers face.
The lawsuit alleges casino hotels have not protected workers, their families, and their community from the spread of COVID-19 and that current rules and procedures in place for responding to workers contracting COVID-19 have been “wholly and dangerously inadequate.”
The Culinary Union made a number of requests for policy changes, including daily cleaning of guest rooms, mandatory testing of all employees for COVID-19 before returning to work and regular testing thereafter, adequate personal protective equipment for workers, and a requirement that guests wear face masks in all public areas.
Best Warning on COVID-19 Workers’ Comp Laws
Insurance rating agency A.M. Best has warned that legal efforts in several U.S. states to expand workers’ compensation coverage to allow employees to claim for COVID-19 will have a negative impact on re/insurers, Reinsurance News reports.
The crisis has resulted in many employees now working from home, but a significant part of the workforce still needs to be present and public facing, and this is the group new state laws aim to support. For these workers, some states are looking to shift the burden to the insurer to prove that an employee contracting COVID-19 did not do so while on the job.
“This shift in the burden of proof could lead to significant additional losses to a segment already under pressure and result in increased reserve estimates and higher combined ratios,” A.M. Best said.
Given that assumptions used in pricing and actual loss emergence diverge significantly, these legislative changes will result in an increase in loss estimates and could affect earnings.
Businesses Ask Patrons to Waive Right to Sue
As businesses reopen across the U.S. after coronavirus shutdowns, many are requiring customers and workers to sign forms saying they won’t sue if they catch COVID-19, Associated Press reported.
Businesses fear they could be the target of litigation, even if they adhere to safety precautions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state health officials. But workers’ rights groups say the forms force employees to sign away their rights should they get sick.
So far, at least six states — Utah, North Carolina, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Alabama — have such limits through legislation or executive orders, and others are considering them. Business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are lobbying for national liability protections.
The Senate Judiciary Committee last week held a hearing titled “COVID-19 Fraud: Law Enforcement’s Response to Those Exploiting the Pandemic.”
The hearing included testimony by William Hughes, associate deputy attorney general, U.S. Department of Justice; Craig Carpenito, U.S. attorney, District of New Jersey; Calvin Shivers, assistant director, Criminal Investigative Division, Federal Bureau of Investigation; and Michael D’Ambrosio, assistant director, U.S. Secret Service, Department of Homeland Security.
Testimony focused on the response to fraud that has resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic. Examples included sale of fraudulent personal protective equipment (PPE) and cyber-enabled fraud; price gouging and hoarding; and fraud relating to the CARES Act’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).
As demand for PPE has been greater than the supply, the environment created has been “ripe for exploitation,” Shivers said.
In addition to sales of counterfeit PPE, he cited “advance fee” schemes – in which a victim prepays for goods like ventilators, masks, or sanitizer that are never received – and business email compromise (BEC) schemes, which involve spoofing an email address or using one that’s nearly identical to one trusted by the victim to instruct them to direct funds to bank accounts controlled by the fraudsters.
Shivers said the FBI is working to educate “the health care industry, financial institutions, other private sector partners, and the American public of an increased potential for fraudulent activity dealing with the purchase of COVID-19-related medical equipment.”
He added that millions of units of PPE have been recovered from price-gouging and hoarding operations and the FBI is working to determine next steps for how to redistribute or sell the PPE.
D’Ambrosio said that although “criminals throughout history have exploited emergencies for illicit gain, the fraud associated with the current COVID-19 pandemic presents a scale and scope of risks we have not seen before.”
He described four categories of threat:
COVID-19-related scams, including the sale of fraudulent medical equipment and nondelivery scams;
Cybercrime like BECs, exploiting increased telework;
Ransomware and other activities that could disrupt pandemic response; and
Defrauding government and financial institutions associated with response and recovery efforts.
Thus far, the Secret Service has initiated over 100 criminal investigations, prevented approximately $1 billion in fraud losses, and disrupted hundreds of online COVID-19-related scams, D’Ambrosio said.
The coronavirus crisis continues to generate data that can be valuable for understanding and decision making. Below are just a few resources that may be of interest to insurers and the people and businesses they serve.
Graphs from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium show reported and projected deaths per day across the United States and for individual states.
The Verisk COVID-19 Projection Tool has been made available to enhanceunderstanding of the potential number of worldwide COVID-19 infections and deaths. It provides an interactive dashboard that leverages the AIR Pandemic Model.
Small and medium-size businesses account for roughly 44% of the U.S. economy and provide employment to about 59 million people. McKinsey is tracking their sentiment to gauge how their views on economic activity, employment, and financial behavior—as well as their expectations about financial institutions and public authorities—change as a result of ongoing public and private interventions.
The COVID-19 pandemic is unprecedented in many ways. The human toll is first and foremost on our
minds (as it should be), but as an insurance professional, I’ll stay in my lane
and address one of the economic impacts – business interruption.
Businesses Looking to Mitigate Losses
Among the ways in which we are in uncharted territory is the
scale of how businesses are impacted. Unsurprisingly,
in reaction to slow-downs and shut-downs in many business sectors, businesses
are looking for ways to mitigate their losses or recover lost revenue. One avenue that businesses are exploring is
the availability of business interruption coverage under their property
insurance policies. Other potential
claims include communicable disease coverage found in some policies purchased
by hotels or event cancellation insurance, but those claims are beyond the
scope of this article.
Property insurance was designed originally to cover fire losses
and similar losses of physical property following the Great
London Fire of 1666. Of course,
property policies have evolved since then to cover additional risks including,
in many instances, business interruption losses caused by physical damage to property. A property policy may, for example, pay to
repair the damage caused by a fire and may cover the loss of business during
the reconstruction period. But here’s
the rub. Are the business interruptions related
to COVID-19 caused by physical damage to property?
Policy Language Will Control
The language of an insured’s policy will control whether
COVID-19 interruptions are covered. Unfortunately,
much of the media commentary on business interruption claims related to
COVID-19 has inappropriately treated all insurance policies as though they are identical. Policyholders have a wide array of different
policies they can purchase. For example,
some policyholders have purchased an ISO Businessowners Policy (BOP) with
standard terms and exclusions, others have purchased all-risk policies, and
others have purchased a variation of these types.
This commentary does not try to provide sweeping
pronouncements or give the impression that a single outcome will apply equally
to all situations. Instead, the
following is a starting point for a more detailed analysis under individual
circumstances. Details matter and the
analysis for a particular claim must start with the policy terms and facts
specific to that policyholder.
Is Coverage Triggered?
There have already been a handful of lawsuits filed related
to business interruption claims, some of which suits were filed before the
insurers even denied a claim. For
example, the Oceana suit filed by a restaurant in NOLA
and a suit filed by chef Thomas
Keller, owner of The French Laundry in California. Also, a group of tribal
nations that own casinos filed a lawsuit in Oklahoma and the owner of a
restaurant/movie chain filed suit in Illinois. Policyholders in these lawsuits are seeking a
ruling that they are entitled to coverage for losses sustained during their current
shutdowns. A review of the policies at
issues underscores the point made above – the outcomes in these suits and others
may not all be the same because different policies are at issue.
Nonetheless, there are some overall issues to consider. While the scope of business shutdowns is
unprecedented, we do have similar experiences as a guide, albeit on a smaller
scale, that may indicate how the current COVID-19 business interruption claims
may play out.
The threshold issue will be whether the insureds can prove
that their business losses are caused by “physical damage to property,” which
is the standard language in many business interruption policies. While the concept of causation focuses on
assigning blame for an accident in some legal contexts, it is important to
realize that in the insurance context the issue of causation is different.
In insurance, the concept of causation addresses whether
a particular loss triggers coverage, not who is responsible for causing the
loss. In this regard, we can replace
the word “causation” with “trigger.” So,
the question with the COVID-19 losses becomes, can these policyholders prove
that their business interruption losses were triggered by physical damage to
property akin to the fire loss damage mentioned above?
Past Experience
A series of cases from Minnesota demonstrates how the
COVID-19 business interruption claims might be resolved.
Where there is direct physical loss to property, such as
contaminated oats that could not be sold or a building rendered useless because
of asbestos contamination, the courts have found that business interruption coverage
was triggered. That is, these losses fit
the definition of direct physical loss to property. General Mills, Inc. v. Gold Medal Ins. Co.,
622 N.W. 2d 147 (Minn. Ct. App. 2001); Sentinel Mgmt. Co. v. New Hampshire Ins.
Co., 563 N.W. 2d 296, 300 (Minn. Ct. App. 1997).
But, where an earthquake caused a power loss in two
Taiwanese factories, and as a result, those factories could not supply products
to the Minnesota insured, the court found that the outages caused no injury to
the Taiwanese factories other than a shutdown of manufacturing operations, and
that this did not constitute “direct physical loss or damage.” Pentair, Inc. v. Am. Guar. & Liab. Ins.
Co., 400. F.3d 613 (8th Cir. 2005).
More recently, a federal appellate court considered a claim
related to mad cow disease. Source Food was
a company that sold products containing beef tallow. The USDA prohibited the importation of the
tallow from Canada in 2003 after a cow in Canada tested positive for mad cow
disease. The border was closed to Source Food’s sole supplier of beef product
in Canada. There was no evidence that the beef product specifically destined
for Source Foods was contaminated by mad cow disease, but after the border was
closed to the importation of beef products, Source Food was unable to fill
orders and lost business as a result. Source
Food submitted a business interruption claim.
It argued that the closing of the border caused direct physical loss to
its beef product because the beef product was treated as though it were
physically contaminated by mad cow disease and lost its function. But, the court held that to characterize
Source Food’s inability to transport its truckload of beef product across the
border and sell the beef product in the United States as direct physical loss
to property would render the word “physical” meaningless. Additionally, the
policy’s use of the word “to” in the term “direct physical loss to
property” was significant. The court explained
that the policy did not cover loss “of” property, it covered loss “to”
property. As a result, the cause of Source
Food’s business interruption was the government shutdown of the border, not
direct physical loss to its property. Source
Food Tech., Inc. v. U.S. Fid. & Guar. Co., 465 F.3d 834 (8th Cir. 2006).
What About the Current Claims?
Here, are the business interruptions related to COVID-19 the
direct result of the government restrictions on businesses or are they due to
the physical loss to their property?
Under the reasoning of the Source Food case, much of the current
business interruption claims would seem not to trigger the standard business
interruption coverage in a commercial business interruption policy or BOP. As cautioned above, this is not a universal
outcome under all policies. For example,
an all-risk policy would generally not distinguish between business
interruption losses due to government action or direct physical loss because
all-risk policies cover all losses except those specifically excluded. While it is possible that an all-risk policy
could specifically exclude losses due to civil authority orders, that is not a
standard exclusion in all-risk policies.
With regard to business interruption policy exclusions,
there are exclusions to consider even if a policyholder can meet its burden to
trigger coverage under the standard business interruption policy. For example, some policies have an exclusion
that precludes coverage for losses that result from mold, fungi or bacteria. However, because COVID-19 is a virus, that
exclusion may not apply. But, other
policies have exclusions for viruses, diseases or pandemics. That type of exclusion appears problematic
for policyholders, even those who satisfy the initial question of
causation/trigger.
The result may not be all-or-nothing. Might claims be partially covered? It is possible. For example, if a restaurant were shut down
because it had been contaminated by COVID-19 and needed to be cleaned and closed
for a two-week period to ensure no lingering virus remained, that period of
shutdown might be considered direct loss to property even though the shut-down
period after the cleaning period was not covered because the following shutdown
period was attributable to a government order.
Likewise, there may be a different analysis applied to some business
interruption claims that result from supply chain impacts. However, claims related to supply chain
disruptions are beyond the scope of this article.
Legislation and Duties of Insureds
It is notable that legislators in several states recently
proposed bills that would retroactively void the exclusions that would apply to
COVID-19 business interruption claims. Although
well-intentioned, these bills are deeply troubling because, among other things,
they could severely impact the financial stability of the insurance market,
which took in premiums based on such claims being excluded. And, because the legislation would not help
the 60 percent of businesses that do not purchase business interruption
coverage, the risk of crippling the insurance market is even more questionable.
Moreover, these bills would address only
the exclusions and do nothing to impact the initial question of whether
policyholders can trigger coverage.
Nevertheless, if a policyholder believes it may have a claim under its insurance policy(ies), it should provide prompt notice to its insurer(s) so that it does not risk a denial based on late notice. Likewise, once the claim has been made, it is essential that the insured cooperate with the insurer, including providing timely proof of loss.
Michael Menapace
Michael Menapace is a Triple-I Non-Resident Scholar, a partner at Wiggin and Dana LLP, and a professor of Insurance Law at the Quinnipiac University School of Law.
